What we got from Rachel Reeves today was, in economic terms, a major departure from economic policy as we’ve known it in this country for the past decade-and-a-half.
We got the single biggest increase in taxes in any fiscal event since 1993. The tax burden itself is now heading up to the highest level in history. We got a significant departure from the policies and promises laid out in the Labour manifesto.
Only a few months ago, Labour pledged not to make dramatic changes to Britain’s economic policy – no significant tax rises, no dramatic changes to public spending. But today the chancellor delivered significant changes.
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The old fiscal rules are out and now this government plans to borrow many billions of pounds more. It plans to increase investment considerably.
It plans to raise taxes on those with investments, on those with assets who could previously pass them on to their children (including business owners and farmers). In the meantime, it plans to spend considerably more on the health service and on public investment than previously slated.
It’s worth saying: while the government inherited the public finances in a worse condition than they looked before the election, even the Treasury’s “black hole” of £22bn cannot explain the dramatic change in economic policy here.
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0:23
Reeves refuses to rule out future tax hikes
It does not explain the dramatic increase in borrowing, spending and taxes – these are policy decisions by the current government. And, many would say, quite right too. Surveys suggest the British public support higher taxes, especially if they are used to improve the National Health Service.
Many think the UK should be spending more on its public services, even if that means we all have to contribute more (though they are generally less enthusiastic if asked whether they would be happy to pay higher taxes themselves). And there is little dispute that this country’s investment levels have been too low for too long and could afford to be higher.
However, that wasn’t the pitch Reeves and Keir Starmer made at the election. They promised, in their manifesto, only slight economic changes and only small increases in taxes. They promised to spend much of their time in office cleaning up the mess from the last government. Reeves promised to be the iron chancellor of fiscal discipline.
But this budget is considerably less disciplined with the public finances than expected. But what will worry the chancellor is that despite this extra largesse with both investment and current spending, the UK economy is not going gangbusters as a result.
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The Office for Budget Responsibility actually cut its forecasts for long term growth. That promise made by Starmer to achieve the highest economic growth in the G7 looks highly unlikely – even after the implementation of all these policies.
And in the hours after the speech, markets reacted in a way that will cause nerves in the Treasury. It’s nothing like the lurches in government debt yields we saw after Liz Truss’s mini budget in 2022. But the pound fell and the interest rates investors charge the UK government rose. That’s not something any chancellor would like to see after their first budget.
The next few days promise to be very interesting both in politics and in markets.
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Angela Rayner has admitted she did not pay the right amount of stamp duty on the purchase of her second home and has referred herself to the independent adviser on ministerial standards.
Speaking to Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, the deputy prime minister became tearful as she claimed she received incorrect tax advice and spoke to her family about “packing it all in”.
Ms Rayner, who is also the housing secretary, has been under scrutiny after a report in The Daily Telegraph claimed she avoided £40,000 in stamp duty on a flat in Hove by removing her name from the deeds of another property in Greater Manchester.
In a lengthy statement released today, she said it was a “complex living arrangement” as her first home was sold to a trust following her divorce to provide stability for her teenage son, who has lifelong disabilities and is the sole beneficiary of the trust.
She said initial legal advice was that the standard rate of stamp duty applied, but following media reports, she sought expert counsel who said more tax is due.
She added that these matters were confidential but she applied to a court yesterday to get this lifted in the interests of public transparency.
In a subsequent interview with Beth Rigby, a visibly upset Ms Rayner said: “I’ve been in shock, really, because I thought I’d done everything properly, and I relied on the advice that I received and I’m devastated because I’ve always upheld the rules and always have felt proud to do that.
“That it is devastating for me and the fact that the reason why those confidential clauses were in place was to protect my son, who, through no fault of his own, he’s vulnerable, he’s got this life changing, lifelong conditions and I don’t want him or anything to do with his day-to-day life, to be subjected to that level of scrutiny.”
Asked if she thought about quitting rather than disclose the details about her son, the cabinet minister added: “I spoke to my family about it. I spoke to my ex-husband, who has been an incredibly supportive person because he knows that all I’ve done is try and support my family and help them.”
Allies jump to Rayner’s defence
Her comments came shortly before the first PMQs following the summer recess. Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said Sir Keir Starmer should fire his deputy.
“If he had backbone, he would sack her,” she said.
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Starmer defends Rayner amid calls for sacking
However, the prime minister defended Ms Rayner, saying he is “very proud” to sit alongside her.
“She’s gone over and above in setting out the details, including yesterday afternoon asking a court to lift a confidentiality order in relation to her own son,” the prime minister said.
“I am very proud to sit alongside a deputy prime minister who is building 1.5m homes, who is bringing the biggest upgrade to workers’ rights in a generation, and has come from a working-class background to become deputy prime minister of this country.”
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey also came out in support of Ms Rayner, saying as the parent of a disabled child himself he trusts that she was acting in her family’s interests.
“I understand it is normally the role of opposition leaders to jump up and down and call for resignations – as we’ve seen plenty of from the Conservatives already,” he said.
“Obviously if the ethics advisor says Angela Rayner has broken the rules, her position may well become untenable.
“But as a parent of a disabled child, I know the thing my wife and I worry most about is our son’s care after we have gone, so I can completely understand and trust that the deputy prime minister was thinking about the same thing here.
“Perhaps now is a good time to talk about how we look after disabled people and how we can build a more caring country.”
Ms Rayner was also backed by Paul Nowak, the general secretary of the TUC, who told Sky News’ chief political correspondent Jon Craig that he thinks attacks against her are driven by a “heavy dose of misogyny”.
He said: “Angela Rayner comes under sustained coverage because she’s a working-class woman in a way that frankly Nigel Farage, leading members of the shadow cabinet, never would.
“I think there’s a real heavy dose of misogyny when it comes to Angela. As far as I’m concerned, the prime minister’s got faith in her and I think the country’s got faith in her as well.”
Health Secretary Wes Streeting also came to her defence, telling BBC Radio 5 Live that she acted in “good faith” and it would be an “absolutely travesty” if she had to resign.
Image: Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer defended Angela Rayner in PMQs. Pic: PA
Key points from Rayner statement
In her statement, Ms Rayner said that following the divorce from her husband in 2023, they agreed to a nesting arrangement where their children would remain in their family home, in Ashton-under-Lyne, while they alternated living there.
She said she sold her interest in that home to a trust earlier this year, before buying the property in Hove.
Image: Angela Rayner arrived in Downing Street for Cabinet on Tuesday. Pic: PA
The trust was originally set up in 2020 to manage a payment to one of her sons after a “deeply personal and distressing incident” as a premature baby that left him with lifelong disabilities
The home had been adapted for her son and the sale to the trust was to give him “the security of knowing the home is his”, Ms Rayner said.
She went on to say that she did not own any other home when she bought the flat in Hove, and her understanding “on advice from lawyers, was that my circumstances meant I was liable for the standard rate of stamp duty”.
She added: “However, given the recent allegations in the press I have subsequently sought further advice from a leading tax counsel to review that position and to ensure I am fully compliant with all tax provisions.
“I have now been advised that although I did not own any other property at the time of the purchase, the application of complex deeming provisions which relate to my son’s trust gives rise to additional stamp duty liabilities.”
Ms Rayner said she is working with HMRC to establish what is owed, claiming her arrangements “reflect the reality that family life is rarely straightforward”.
She concluded: “I deeply regret the error that has been made. I am committed to resolving this matter fully and providing the transparency that public service demands.
“It is for that reason I have today referred myself to the Independent Adviser on Ministerial Standards, and will provide him with my fullest cooperation and access to all the information he requires.”