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The 2024 Autumn Budget in one word? Big.

What we got from Rachel Reeves today was, in economic terms, a major departure from economic policy as we’ve known it in this country for the past decade-and-a-half.

We got the single biggest increase in taxes in any fiscal event since 1993. The tax burden itself is now heading up to the highest level in history. We got a significant departure from the policies and promises laid out in the Labour manifesto.

Only a few months ago, Labour pledged not to make dramatic changes to Britain’s economic policy – no significant tax rises, no dramatic changes to public spending. But today the chancellor delivered significant changes.

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Budget 2024: Key takeaways

Budget latest: Experts react to Labour’s ‘massive’ tax plans

The old fiscal rules are out and now this government plans to borrow many billions of pounds more. It plans to increase investment considerably.

It plans to raise taxes on those with investments, on those with assets who could previously pass them on to their children (including business owners and farmers). In the meantime, it plans to spend considerably more on the health service and on public investment than previously slated.

It’s worth saying: while the government inherited the public finances in a worse condition than they looked before the election, even the Treasury’s “black hole” of £22bn cannot explain the dramatic change in economic policy here.

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Reeves refuses to rule out future tax hikes

It does not explain the dramatic increase in borrowing, spending and taxes – these are policy decisions by the current government. And, many would say, quite right too. Surveys suggest the British public support higher taxes, especially if they are used to improve the National Health Service.

Many think the UK should be spending more on its public services, even if that means we all have to contribute more (though they are generally less enthusiastic if asked whether they would be happy to pay higher taxes themselves). And there is little dispute that this country’s investment levels have been too low for too long and could afford to be higher.

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The chancellor’s announcements
What the budget means for you
Supermarkets’ tax burden soars

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Labour’s manifesto promised only slight economic changes and small tax increases

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However, that wasn’t the pitch Reeves and Keir Starmer made at the election. They promised, in their manifesto, only slight economic changes and only small increases in taxes. They promised to spend much of their time in office cleaning up the mess from the last government. Reeves promised to be the iron chancellor of fiscal discipline.

But this budget is considerably less disciplined with the public finances than expected. But what will worry the chancellor is that despite this extra largesse with both investment and current spending, the UK economy is not going gangbusters as a result.

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The Office for Budget Responsibility actually cut its forecasts for long term growth. That promise made by Starmer to achieve the highest economic growth in the G7 looks highly unlikely – even after the implementation of all these policies.

And in the hours after the speech, markets reacted in a way that will cause nerves in the Treasury. It’s nothing like the lurches in government debt yields we saw after Liz Truss’s mini budget in 2022. But the pound fell and the interest rates investors charge the UK government rose. That’s not something any chancellor would like to see after their first budget.

The next few days promise to be very interesting both in politics and in markets.

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British taxpayers’ £10.2bn loss on bailout of RBS

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British taxpayers' £10.2bn loss on bailout of RBS

British taxpayers are set to swallow a loss of just over £10bn on the 2008 rescue of Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) as the government prepares to confirm that it has offloaded its last-remaining shares in the lender as soon as next week.

Sky News can reveal the ultimate cost to the UK of saving RBS – now NatWest Group – from insolvency is expected to come in at about £10.2bn once the proceeds of share sales, dividends and fees associated with the stake are aggregated.

The final bill will draw a line under one of the most notorious bank bailouts ever orchestrated, and comes nearly 17 years after the then chancellor, Lord Darling, conducted what RBS’s boss at the time, Fred Goodwin, labelled “a drive-by shooting”.

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Insiders believe a statement confirming the final shares have been sold could come in the latter part of next week, although there is a chance that timetable could be extended by a number of days.

The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is likely to make a statement about the milestone, although insiders say the Treasury and the bank are keen to simply mark the occasion by thanking British taxpayers for their protracted support.

A stock exchange filing disclosing that taxpayers’ stake had fallen below 1% was made last week, down from over 80% in the years after the £45.5bn bailout.

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The stake now stands at 0.26%, meaning the final shares could be offloaded as early as the middle of next week, depending upon demand.

Total proceeds from a government trading plan launched in 2021 to drip-feed NatWest stock into the market have so far reached £12.8bn.

Based on the bank’s current share price, the remaining shares should fetch in the region of £400m, taking the figure to £13.2bn.

In addition, institutional share sales and direct buybacks by NatWest of government-held stock have yielded a further £11.5bn.

Dividend payments to the Treasury during its ownership have totalled £4.9bn, while fees and other payments have generated another £5.6bn.

In aggregate, that means total proceeds from NatWest since 2008 are expected to hit £35.3bn.

Under Rick Haythornthwaite and Paul Thwaite, now the bank’s chairman and chief executive respectively, NatWest is now focused on driving growth across its business.

It recently tabled an £11bn bid to buy Santander UK, according to the Financial Times, although no talks are ongoing.

Mr Thwaite replaced Dame Alison Rose, who left amid the crisis sparked by the debanking scandal involving Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader.

Sky News recently revealed that the bank and Mr Farage had reached an undisclosed settlement.

During the first five years of NatWest’s period in majority state ownership, the bank was run by Sir Stephen Hester, now the chairman of easyJet.

Sir Stephen stepped down amid tensions with the then chancellor, George Osborne, about how RBS – as it then was – should be run.

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Lloyds Banking Group was also in partial state ownership for years, although taxpayers reaped a net gain of about £900m from that period.

Other lenders nationalised during the crisis included Bradford & Bingley, the bulk of which was sold to Santander UK, and Northern Rock, part of which was sold to Virgin Money – which in turn has been acquired by Nationwide.

NatWest declined to comment on Friday.

A Treasury spokesperson said: “We now own less than 1% of shares in NatWest which is a significant step towards returning the bank to private ownership and delivering value for money for taxpayers.

“We are on track to exit the shareholding soon, subject to sales achieving value for money and market conditions.”

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Trump threatens EU with 50% tariff – as Apple faces 25% unless iPhones are made in US

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Trump threatens EU with 50% tariff - as Apple faces 25% unless iPhones are made in US

Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU, starting from next month, after saying that trade talks with Brussels were “going nowhere”.

Mr Trump made the comments on his Truth Social platform.

It marks a fresh escalation in his trade row with the European Union, which he has previously accused of being created to rip off the US.

While the US has done deals with the UK and China to reduce their peak exposure to his trade war, the president’s EU threat, which would cover all EU imports to the US, would risk retaliatory measures from Brussels if carried through.

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Mr Trump said of talks between his administration and the EU: “Our discussions with them are going nowhere! “Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50% tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025. There is no tariff if the product is built or manufactured in the United States.”

The European Commission was yet to respond to the remarks. Officials signalled there would be no comment until after a call between top US-EU trade figures due later on Friday.

Financial markets, however, were quick to take a view. European stock markets were sharply down across the board.

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Explained: The US-UK trade deal

The FTSE 100 in London was more than 1.2% lower shortly after the Truth Social post appeared, while Germany’s DAX and the French CAC 40 were in the red to the tune of more than 2%.

US stock markets fell at the open on Wall Street. The tech-focused Nasdaq was down more than 1%.

The potential for damage to the global economy saw Brent crude oil sink by more than 1% to $63 a barrel.

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‘US is losing’ trade war

The dollar took a hit too, as the news only intensified existing market worries this week about the sustainability of US government debt levels.

The pound was trading at levels last seen in February 2022.

Mr Trump said earlier that Apple will be forced to pay 25% tariffs on its iPhones unless it moves all its manufacturing to the US.

Apple shares dropped more than 2% in premarket trading after the warning, also posted on Truth Social.

“I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhones that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or any place else,” wrote the president.

“If that is not the case, a tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the US.”

Production of Apple’s flagship phone happens primarily in China and India, which has been an issue brought up repeatedly by Mr Trump.

Read more:
Trump trade argument against UK doesn’t add up
Why Trump blinked in US-China trade war

On Thursday, the Financial Times reported Apple was planning to expand its India supply chain through a key contractor.

Taiwanese company Foxconn is planning to build a new factory in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, according to the paper, to help supply Apple.

Sky News has contacted Apple for comment.

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Trump’s latest phone negotiation tactic on tariffs likely to heighten EU retaliation threat

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Trump's latest phone negotiation tactic on tariffs likely to heighten EU retaliation threat

President Trump’s Friday flurry of pronouncements marks the return of negotiation by smartphone and may trigger another period of profound uncertainty for international trade and financial markets.

The threat of 50% tariffs against the European Union, issued hours before his trade representative met their European counterparts, is a show of presidential muscle surely designed to strongarm those on the other side of the table.

It is an escalation likely to heighten the threat of retaliation from Europe, and with a few keystrokes ends the brief period of calm that had returned to global trade and markets in recent days.

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A red hat in Washington DC to support President Trump. Pic: AP
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A red hat in Washington DC to support President Trump. Pic: AP

Talks in Switzerland between US and Chinese delegations a fortnight ago took the sting out of Sino-American hostility, negotiating three-figure tariffs that amounted to a mutual trade embargo down to manageable levels.

Financial markets had regained most of the losses sparked on ‘Liberation Day’ in April, when Donald Trump declared total trade war, and there was optimism that for all his bluster, there might be meaningful room for constructive compromise.

The UK even secured a deal of sorts, securing a reduction in auto tariffs in exchange for a reciprocal opening of agricultural markets.

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There will be no such deal for the EU in a hurry. A 50% tariff on all exports to the US is not only higher than the original threatened blanket tariff of 20% and double Mr Trump’s proposed 25% on European cars, it’s higher even than China.

European stocks predictably ended the week in decline, with car manufacturers including BMW, Volkswagen and Stellantis all down.

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12 May: US and China reach agreement on tariffs

It remains to be seen whether this threat will stick.

Read more:
Trump trade argument against UK doesn’t add up
Why Trump blinked in US-China trade war

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Mr Trump has repeatedly blinked first in the trade war he started, backing down on global reciprocal tariffs when bond markets rebelled before caving in Geneva to reach an accommodation with China.

His grievances with Europe appear to have an extra edge however, and the consequences of the uncertainty he’s sparked will be far-reaching.

If this was the only thing he had announced on ‘Liberation Day’ it would still have been huge.

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