Apple reports fourth-quarter earnings after the bell Thursday. It’s the end of Apple’s fiscal year, and it’s the first quarter with sales from the September launch of the iPhone 16.
Here’s what to expect, according to LSEG consensus estimates:
Earnings per share: $1.60
Revenue: $94.58 billion
The most critical item will be what Apple signals to investors about its December quarter, which is its largest seasonal sales period of the year. That will set the tone about the current iPhone sales cycle and whether it represents a chance for revenue growth driven by the launch of Apple Intelligence.
Apple doesn’t provide official guidance, but it typically offers forecast data points on a call with analysts that suggest whether the company expects sales growth and how some of its product lines might fare — especially the iPhone, which still accounts for a majority of Apple’s sales.
Without Apple’s official guidance and sales, investors parse surveys and shipping dates on Apple’s website to get a clue.
Some analysts are pointing to signs so far as “mixed.”
“To be clear, we have not heard of any iPhone build cuts in our checks, but after a month of tracking iPhone 16 demand indicators, we’d characterize iPhone demand as mixed,” wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring in a note Oct. 22.
Other analysts are watching for when exactly Apple Intelligence will start to boost sales. Apple Intelligence is rolling out in pieces over the next few months. It’s available in American English now, but will add support for German, Italian, Korean, Chinese, French, Japanese and Spanish next year, Apple says.
“While iPhone sales will be on everybody’s mind when AAPL reports, the stream of data points indicates that there is little reason to believe an upgrade cycle has started,” wrote D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria in a note this week. “That should be expected, as Apple Intelligence features (the only reason to upgrade) have yet to be rolled out in a significant way.”
U.S. carriers, including AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile, have also seemed unexcited about an Apple Intelligence upgrade cycle.
“We’re still waiting, obviously, for the software release and whether or not that software release drives interest in the consumer base,” AT&T CEO John Stankey said on an earnings call last week.
Sales in greater China were one of the weakest parts of Apple’s most recent quarterly report, declining 6% in the face of increased pressure from Chinese rivals.
“We believe even with new iPhone launch, Apple still faces pressure from Huawei, and we don’t expect the competition to ease any time soon,” Citi analyst Malif Atik wrote in a note this week.
But research firm Counterpoint Research told CNBC in October that iPhone sales, especially for the lower-priced devices, were strong in China.
“We’re seeing strong iPhone 16 series unit sales in China, up 20% compared to iPhone 15 series during its first three weeks of sales last year,” a Counterpoint representative said.
Investors will also look closely at Apple’s “wearables” category, which includes its Apple Watch and AirPods headphones. Both of those product lines saw new models hit store shelves during the quarter, including Apple Watches with bigger screens and low-end AirPods with noise canceling.
The new products could reverse the trend of Apple’s wearables sales declining on a year-over-year basis for four straight quarters.
Overall, analysts polled by LSEG expect about 5.6% revenue growth on an annual basis to about $95 billion in revenue.
That’s in line with what Apple signaled in August. Apple also said at the time that its services unit — the company’s catch-all, high-margin unit that includes everything from Major League Soccer subscriptions to Google search deals and extended iPhone warranties — would rise about 14% during the quarter, continuing its steady growth.
Thursday’s report will also likely be the last with CFO Luca Maestri. Apple said in August that Maestri will step down Jan. 1 and be replaced by longtime lieutenant Kevan Parekh. Maestri won’t be leaving Apple, though, and will retain oversight of some teams focusing on IT, real estate, and security.
TikTok’s grip on the short-form video market is tightening, and the world’s biggest tech platforms are racing to catch up.
Since launching globally in 2016, ByteDance-owned TikTok has amassed over 1.12 billion monthly active users worldwide, according to Backlinko. American users spend an average of 108 minutes per day on the app, according to Apptoptia.
TikTok’s success has reshaped the social media landscape, forcing competitors like Meta and Google to pivot their strategies around short-form video. But so far, experts say that none have matched TikTok’s algorithmic precision.
“It is the center of the internet for young people,” said Jasmine Enberg, vice president and principal analyst at Emarketer. “It’s where they go for entertainment, news, trends, even shopping. TikTok sets the tone for everyone else.”
Platforms like Meta‘s Instagram Reels and Google’s YouTube Shorts have expanded aggressively, launching new features, creator tools and even considering separate apps just to compete. Microsoft-owned LinkedIn, traditionally a professional networking site, is the latest to experiment with TikTok-style feeds. But with TikTok continuing to evolve, adding features like e-commerce integrations and longer videos, the question remains whether rivals can keep up.
“I’m scrolling every single day. I doom scroll all the time,” said TikTok content creator Alyssa McKay.
But there may a dark side to this growth.
As short-form content consumption soars, experts warn about shrinking attention spans and rising mental-health concerns, particularly among younger users. Researchers like Dr. Yann Poncin, associate professor at the Child Study Center at Yale University, point to disrupted sleep patterns and increased anxiety levels tied to endless scrolling habits.
“Infinite scrolling and short-form video are designed to capture your attention in short bursts,” Dr. Poncin said. “In the past, entertainment was about taking you on a journey through a show or story. Now, it’s about locking you in for just a few seconds, just enough to feed you the next thing the algorithm knows you’ll like.”
Despite sky-high engagement, monetizing short videos remains an uphill battle. Unlike long-form YouTube content, where ads can be inserted throughout, short clips offer limited space for advertisers. Creators, too, are feeling the squeeze.
“It’s never been easier to go viral,” said Enberg. “But it’s never been harder to turn that virality into a sustainable business.”
Last year, TikTok generated an estimated $23.6 billion in ad revenues, according to Oberlo, but even with this growth, many creators still make just a few dollars per million views. YouTube Shorts pays roughly four cents per 1,000 views, which is less than its long-form counterpart. Meanwhile, Instagram has leaned into brand partnerships and emerging tools like “Trial Reels,” which allow creators to experiment with content by initially sharing videos only with non-followers, giving them a low-risk way to test new formats or ideas before deciding whether to share with their full audience. But Meta told CNBC that monetizing Reels remains a work in progress.
While lawmakers scrutinize TikTok’s Chinese ownership and explore potential bans, competitors see a window of opportunity. Meta and YouTube are poised to capture up to 50% of reallocated ad dollars if TikTok faces restrictions in the U.S., according to eMarketer.
Watch the video to understand how TikTok’s rise sparked a short form video race.
The X logo appears on a phone, and the xAI logo is displayed on a laptop in Krakow, Poland, on April 1, 2025. (Photo by Klaudia Radecka/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
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Elon Musk‘s xAI Holdings is in discussions with investors to raise about $20 billion, Bloomberg News reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.
The funding would value the company at over $120 billion, according to the report.
Musk was looking to assign “proper value” to xAI, sources told CNBC’s David Faber earlier this month. The remarks were made during a call with xAI investors, sources familiar with the matter told Faber. The Tesla CEO at that time didn’t explicitly mention any upcoming funding round, but the sources suggested xAI was preparing for a substantial capital raise in the near future.
The funding amount could be more than $20 billion as the exact figure had not been decided, the Bloomberg report added.
Artificial intelligence startup xAI didn’t immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment outside of U.S. business hours.
The AI firm last month acquired X in an all-stock deal that valued xAI at $80 billion and the social media platform at $33 billion.
“xAI and X’s futures are intertwined. Today, we officially take the step to combine the data, models, compute, distribution and talent,” Musk said on X, announcing the deal. “This combination will unlock immense potential by blending xAI’s advanced AI capability and expertise with X’s massive reach.”
Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai during the Google I/O developers conference in Mountain View, California, on May 10, 2023.
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Alphabet‘s stock gained 3% Friday after signaling strong growth in its search and advertising businesses amid a competitive artificial intelligence environment and uncertain macro backdrop.
“GOOGL‘s pace of GenAI product roll-out is accelerating with multiple encouraging signals,” wrote Morgan Stanley‘s Brian Nowak. “Macro uncertainty still exists but we remain [overweight] given GOOGL’s still strong relative position and improving pace of GenAI enabled product roll-out.”
The search giant posted earnings of $2.81 per share on $90.23 billion in revenues. That topped the $89.12 billion in sales and $2.01 in EPS expected by LSEG analysts. Revenues grew 12% year-over-year and ahead of the 10% anticipated by Wall Street.
Net income rose 46% to $34.54 billion, or $2.81 per share. That’s up from $23.66 billion, or $1.89 per share, in the year-ago period. Alphabet said the figure included $8 billion in unrealized gains on its nonmarketable equity securities connected to its investment in a private company.
Adjusted earnings, excluding that gain, were $2.27 per share, according to LSEG, and topped analyst expectations.
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Alphabet shares have pulled back about 16% this year as it battles volatility spurred by mounting trade war fears and worries that President Donald Trump‘s tariffs could crush the global economy. That would make it more difficult for Alphabet to potentially acquire infrastructure for data centers powering AI models as it faces off against competitors such as OpenAI and Anthropic to develop largely language models.
During Thursday’s call with investors, Alphabet suggested that it’s too soon to tally the total impact of tariffs. However, Google’s business chief Philipp Schindler said that ending the de minimis trade exemption in May, which created a loophole benefitting many Chinese e-commerce retailers, could create a “slight headwind” for the company’s ads business, specifically in the Asia-Pacific region. The loophole allows shipments under $800 to come into the U.S. duty-free.
Despite this backdrop, Alphabet showed steady growth in its advertising and search business, reporting $66.89 billion in revenues for its advertising unit. That reflected 8.5% growth from the year-ago period. The company reported $8.93 billion in advertising revenue for its YouTube business, shy of an $8.97 billion estimate from StreetAccount.
Alphabet’s “Search and other” unit rose 9.8% to $50.7 billion, up from $46.16 billion last year. The company said that its AI Overviews tool used in its Google search results page has accumulated 1.5 billion monthly users from a billion in October.
Bank of America analyst Justin Post said that Wall Street is underestimating the upside potential and “monetization ramp” from this tool and cloud demand fueled by AI.
“The strong 1Q search performance, along with constructive comments on Gemini [large language model] performance and [AI Overviews] adoption could help alleviate some investor concerns on AI competition,” Post wrote in a note.