What you need to know is this. The budget has not gone down well in financial markets. Indeed, it’s gone down about as badly as any budget in recent years, save for Liz Truss’s mini-budget.
The pound is weaker. Government bond yields (essentially, the interest rate the exchequer pays on its debt) have gone up.
That’s precisely the opposite market reaction to the one chancellors like to see after they commend their fiscal statements to the house.
In hindsight, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised.
After all, the new government just committed itself to considerably more borrowing than its predecessors – about £140bn more borrowing in the coming years. And that money has to be borrowed from someone – namely, financial markets.
But those financial markets are now reassessing how keen they are to lend to the UK.
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The upshot is that the pound has fallen quite sharply (the biggest two-day fall in trade-weighted sterling in 18 months) and gilt yields – the interest rate paid by the government – have risen quite sharply.
This was all beginning to crystallise shortly after the budget speech, with yields beginning to rise and the pound beginning to weaken, the moment investors and economists got their hands on the budget documentation.
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Chancellor challenged over gilt yield spike
But the falls in the pound and the rises in the bond yields accelerated today.
This is not, to be absolutely clear, the kind of response any chancellor wants to see after a budget – let alone their first budget in office.
Indeed, I can’t remember another budget which saw as hostile a market response as this one in many years – save for one.
That exception is, of course, the Liz Truss/Kwasi Kwarteng mini-budget of 2022. And here is where you’ll find the silver lining for Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves.
The rises in gilt yields and falls in sterling in recent hours and days are still far shy of what took place in the run up and aftermath of the mini-budget. This does not yet feel like a crisis moment for UK markets.
But nor is it anything like good news for the government. In fact, it’s pretty awful. Because higher borrowing rates for UK debt mean it (well, us) will end up paying considerably more to service our debt in the coming years.
Image: Rachel Reeves leaving 11 Downing Street before the budget. Pic: PA
And that debt is about to balloon dramatically because of the plans laid down by the chancellor this week.
And this is where things get particularly sticky for Ms Reeves.
In that budget documentation, the Office for Budget Responsibility said the chancellor could afford to see those gilt yields rise by about 1.3 percentage points, but then when they exceeded this level, the so-called “headroom” she had against her fiscal rules would evaporate.
In other words, she’d break those rules – which, recall, are considerably less strict than the ones she inherited from Jeremy Hunt.
Which raises the question: where are those gilt yields right now? How close are they to the danger zone where the chancellor ends up breaking her rules?
Short answer: worryingly close. Because, right now, the yield on five-year government debt (which is the maturity the OBR focuses on most) is more than halfway towards that danger zone – only 56 basis points away from hitting the point where debt interest costs eat up any leeway the chancellor has to avoid breaking her rules.
Now, we are not in crisis territory yet. Nor can every move in currencies and bonds be attributed to this budget.
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Markets are volatile right now. There’s lots going on: a US election next week and a Bank of England decision on interest rates next week.
The chancellor could get lucky. Gilt yields could settle in the coming days. But, right now, the UK, with its high level of public and private debt, with its new government which has just pledged to borrow many billions more in the coming years, is being closely scrutinised by the “bond vigilantes”.
Angela Rayner has admitted she did not pay the right amount of stamp duty on the purchase of her second home and has referred herself to the independent adviser on ministerial standards.
Speaking to Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, the deputy prime minister became tearful as she claimed she received incorrect tax advice and spoke to her family about “packing it all in”.
Ms Rayner, who is also the housing secretary, has been under scrutiny after a report in The Daily Telegraph claimed she avoided £40,000 in stamp duty on a flat in Hove by removing her name from the deeds of another property in Greater Manchester.
In a lengthy statement released today, she said it was a “complex living arrangement” as her first home was sold to a trust following her divorce to provide stability for her teenage son, who has lifelong disabilities and is the sole beneficiary of the trust.
She said initial legal advice was that the standard rate of stamp duty applied, but following media reports, she sought expert counsel who said more tax is due.
She added that these matters were confidential but she applied to a court yesterday to get this lifted in the interests of public transparency.
In a subsequent interview with Beth Rigby, a visibly upset Ms Rayner said: “I’ve been in shock, really, because I thought I’d done everything properly, and I relied on the advice that I received and I’m devastated because I’ve always upheld the rules and always have felt proud to do that.
“That it is devastating for me and the fact that the reason why those confidential clauses were in place was to protect my son, who, through no fault of his own, he’s vulnerable, he’s got this life changing, lifelong conditions and I don’t want him or anything to do with his day-to-day life, to be subjected to that level of scrutiny.”
Asked if she thought about quitting rather than disclose the details about her son, the cabinet minister added: “I spoke to my family about it. I spoke to my ex-husband, who has been an incredibly supportive person because he knows that all I’ve done is try and support my family and help them.”
Allies jump to Rayner’s defence
Her comments came shortly before the first PMQs following the summer recess. Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said Sir Keir Starmer should fire his deputy.
“If he had backbone, he would sack her,” she said.
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Starmer defends Rayner amid calls for sacking
However, the prime minister defended Ms Rayner, saying he is “very proud” to sit alongside her.
“She’s gone over and above in setting out the details, including yesterday afternoon asking a court to lift a confidentiality order in relation to her own son,” the prime minister said.
“I am very proud to sit alongside a deputy prime minister who is building 1.5m homes, who is bringing the biggest upgrade to workers’ rights in a generation, and has come from a working-class background to become deputy prime minister of this country.”
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey also came out in support of Ms Rayner, saying as the parent of a disabled child himself he trusts that she was acting in her family’s interests.
“I understand it is normally the role of opposition leaders to jump up and down and call for resignations – as we’ve seen plenty of from the Conservatives already,” he said.
“Obviously if the ethics advisor says Angela Rayner has broken the rules, her position may well become untenable.
“But as a parent of a disabled child, I know the thing my wife and I worry most about is our son’s care after we have gone, so I can completely understand and trust that the deputy prime minister was thinking about the same thing here.
“Perhaps now is a good time to talk about how we look after disabled people and how we can build a more caring country.”
Ms Rayner was also backed by Paul Nowak, the general secretary of the TUC, who told Sky News’ chief political correspondent Jon Craig that he thinks attacks against her are driven by a “heavy dose of misogyny”.
He said: “Angela Rayner comes under sustained coverage because she’s a working-class woman in a way that frankly Nigel Farage, leading members of the shadow cabinet, never would.
“I think there’s a real heavy dose of misogyny when it comes to Angela. As far as I’m concerned, the prime minister’s got faith in her and I think the country’s got faith in her as well.”
Health Secretary Wes Streeting also came to her defence, telling BBC Radio 5 Live that she acted in “good faith” and it would be an “absolutely travesty” if she had to resign.
Image: Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer defended Angela Rayner in PMQs. Pic: PA
Key points from Rayner statement
In her statement, Ms Rayner said that following the divorce from her husband in 2023, they agreed to a nesting arrangement where their children would remain in their family home, in Ashton-under-Lyne, while they alternated living there.
She said she sold her interest in that home to a trust earlier this year, before buying the property in Hove.
Image: Angela Rayner arrived in Downing Street for Cabinet on Tuesday. Pic: PA
The trust was originally set up in 2020 to manage a payment to one of her sons after a “deeply personal and distressing incident” as a premature baby that left him with lifelong disabilities
The home had been adapted for her son and the sale to the trust was to give him “the security of knowing the home is his”, Ms Rayner said.
She went on to say that she did not own any other home when she bought the flat in Hove, and her understanding “on advice from lawyers, was that my circumstances meant I was liable for the standard rate of stamp duty”.
She added: “However, given the recent allegations in the press I have subsequently sought further advice from a leading tax counsel to review that position and to ensure I am fully compliant with all tax provisions.
“I have now been advised that although I did not own any other property at the time of the purchase, the application of complex deeming provisions which relate to my son’s trust gives rise to additional stamp duty liabilities.”
Ms Rayner said she is working with HMRC to establish what is owed, claiming her arrangements “reflect the reality that family life is rarely straightforward”.
She concluded: “I deeply regret the error that has been made. I am committed to resolving this matter fully and providing the transparency that public service demands.
“It is for that reason I have today referred myself to the Independent Adviser on Ministerial Standards, and will provide him with my fullest cooperation and access to all the information he requires.”
Amid the US set to implement a stablecoin framework after passage of the GENIUS Act, EU officials are looking at the implications of foreign-issued stablecoins.