What you need to know is this. The budget has not gone down well in financial markets. Indeed, it’s gone down about as badly as any budget in recent years, save for Liz Truss’s mini-budget.
The pound is weaker. Government bond yields (essentially, the interest rate the exchequer pays on its debt) have gone up.
That’s precisely the opposite market reaction to the one chancellors like to see after they commend their fiscal statements to the house.
In hindsight, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised.
After all, the new government just committed itself to considerably more borrowing than its predecessors – about £140bn more borrowing in the coming years. And that money has to be borrowed from someone – namely, financial markets.
But those financial markets are now reassessing how keen they are to lend to the UK.
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The upshot is that the pound has fallen quite sharply (the biggest two-day fall in trade-weighted sterling in 18 months) and gilt yields – the interest rate paid by the government – have risen quite sharply.
This was all beginning to crystallise shortly after the budget speech, with yields beginning to rise and the pound beginning to weaken, the moment investors and economists got their hands on the budget documentation.
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Chancellor challenged over gilt yield spike
But the falls in the pound and the rises in the bond yields accelerated today.
This is not, to be absolutely clear, the kind of response any chancellor wants to see after a budget – let alone their first budget in office.
Indeed, I can’t remember another budget which saw as hostile a market response as this one in many years – save for one.
That exception is, of course, the Liz Truss/Kwasi Kwarteng mini-budget of 2022. And here is where you’ll find the silver lining for Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves.
The rises in gilt yields and falls in sterling in recent hours and days are still far shy of what took place in the run up and aftermath of the mini-budget. This does not yet feel like a crisis moment for UK markets.
But nor is it anything like good news for the government. In fact, it’s pretty awful. Because higher borrowing rates for UK debt mean it (well, us) will end up paying considerably more to service our debt in the coming years.
And that debt is about to balloon dramatically because of the plans laid down by the chancellor this week.
And this is where things get particularly sticky for Ms Reeves.
In that budget documentation, the Office for Budget Responsibility said the chancellor could afford to see those gilt yields rise by about 1.3 percentage points, but then when they exceeded this level, the so-called “headroom” she had against her fiscal rules would evaporate.
In other words, she’d break those rules – which, recall, are considerably less strict than the ones she inherited from Jeremy Hunt.
Which raises the question: where are those gilt yields right now? How close are they to the danger zone where the chancellor ends up breaking her rules?
Short answer: worryingly close. Because, right now, the yield on five-year government debt (which is the maturity the OBR focuses on most) is more than halfway towards that danger zone – only 56 basis points away from hitting the point where debt interest costs eat up any leeway the chancellor has to avoid breaking her rules.
Now, we are not in crisis territory yet. Nor can every move in currencies and bonds be attributed to this budget.
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Markets are volatile right now. There’s lots going on: a US election next week and a Bank of England decision on interest rates next week.
The chancellor could get lucky. Gilt yields could settle in the coming days. But, right now, the UK, with its high level of public and private debt, with its new government which has just pledged to borrow many billions more in the coming years, is being closely scrutinised by the “bond vigilantes”.
Across five decades in three different countries and involving as many as 130 boys and young men in the UK and Africa, John Smyth QC is said to have subjected his victims to traumatic physical, sexual, psychological and spiritual attacks, permanently marking their lives.
The report concluded he might have been brought to justice had Mr Welby formally reported it to police a decade ago.
In a resignation letter Justin Welby said: “Having sought the gracious permission of His Majesty The King, I have decided to resign.
“The Makin Review has exposed the long-maintained conspiracy of silence about the heinous abuse of John Smyth.
“When I was informed in 2013 and told that police had been notified, I believed wrongly that an appropriate resolution would follow.
“It is very clear that I must take personal and institutional responsibility for the long and re-traumatising period between 2013 and 2024.
“The last few days have renewed my long-felt and profound sense of shame at the historic safeguarding failures of the Church of England. For nearly 12 years I have struggled to introduce improvements. It is for others to judge what has been done.
“In the meantime, I will follow through on my commitment to meet victims. I will delegate all my other current responsibilities for safeguarding until the necessary risk assessment process is complete.”
Smyth died aged 75 in Cape Town in 2018 while under investigation by Hampshire Police, and so was “never brought to justice for the abuse”, the review said.
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Gary Lineker will step down as host of Match Of The Day at the end of the season, the BBC has confirmed.
The 63-year-old will continue to host coverage of the FA Cup in 2025/26 and the World Cup in 2026, the broadcaster announced.
Lineker will continue with the MOTD Top Ten podcast while his The Rest Is Football podcast, which features BBC pundits Alan Shearer and Micah Richards, will now be hosted on BBC Sounds.
The former England footballer said: “I’m delighted to continue my long association with BBC Sport and would like to thank all those who made this happen.”
Alex Kay-Jelski, director of BBC Sport, said: “Gary is a world-class presenter, and we’re delighted that he’ll lead our coverage of the next World Cup and continue to lead our live coverage of the FA Cup.
“After 25 seasons Gary is stepping down from MOTD. We want to thank him for everything he has done for the show, which continues to attract millions of viewers each week.
“He’ll be hugely missed on the show but we’re so happy he is staying with the BBC to present live football.”
Lineker has hosted the Premier League highlights show since 1999, after his predecessor Des Lynam moved to ITV.
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He is the co-founder of Goalhanger Podcasts, which produces popular shows such as The Rest Is History, The Rest Is Politics and The Rest Is Entertainment, as well as his own football podcast.
The company, founded in 2014, claims to be the UK’s largest independent podcast firm and said in September its podcasts had been downloaded more than 380 million times so far this year.
Lineker has been the BBC’s highest-paid star in recent years for his work on shows including Match Of The Day and Sports Personality Of The Year, as well as coverage of major tournaments including World Cups and European Championships.
It is unclear who will take over from Lineker on Match Of The Day.
Former Tottenham Hotspur footballer Jermaine Jenas had at one point been considered to be his natural successor but he was sacked from the BBC in August over claims of inappropriate behaviour.
Lineker enjoyed a successful career as a striker, winning 80 caps for England, before moving into broadcasting.
The Queen will return to public duties today after her chest infection but will miss the Gladiator II premiere on Wednesday to aid her recovery, a royal source has said.
The 77-year-old was forced to withdraw from her duties last week and missed the weekend’s Remembrance Day commemoration events.
Queen Camilla will attend a Booker Prize reception at Clarence House on Tuesday, but will meet guests for a shorter period than planned.
She will also still attend a Palace reception with the King on Wednesday to celebrate the TV and film industry, but she is not expected to be present for the entirety of the engagement.
The changes to her diary are understood to have been made to protect and prioritise her continued recovery, with royal doctors keen to prevent any setback from a seasonal illness.
It comes after Prince William said 2024 has been “brutal” and “probably the hardest year in my life”, due to his wife and father’s cancer diagnoses.
Speaking on a tour of Cape Town this week, he said: “Honestly? It’s been dreadful.
“It’s probably been the hardest year in my life. So, trying to get through everything else and keep everything on track has been really difficult.”
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Discussing how his relatives have coped with their health struggles, he added: “I’m so proud of my wife, I’m proud of my father, for handling the things that they have done.
“But from a personal family point of view, it’s been, yeah, it’s been brutal.”