What you need to know is this. The budget has not gone down well in financial markets. Indeed, it’s gone down about as badly as any budget in recent years, save for Liz Truss’s mini-budget.
The pound is weaker. Government bond yields (essentially, the interest rate the exchequer pays on its debt) have gone up.
That’s precisely the opposite market reaction to the one chancellors like to see after they commend their fiscal statements to the house.
In hindsight, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised.
After all, the new government just committed itself to considerably more borrowing than its predecessors – about £140bn more borrowing in the coming years. And that money has to be borrowed from someone – namely, financial markets.
But those financial markets are now reassessing how keen they are to lend to the UK.
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The upshot is that the pound has fallen quite sharply (the biggest two-day fall in trade-weighted sterling in 18 months) and gilt yields – the interest rate paid by the government – have risen quite sharply.
This was all beginning to crystallise shortly after the budget speech, with yields beginning to rise and the pound beginning to weaken, the moment investors and economists got their hands on the budget documentation.
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Chancellor challenged over gilt yield spike
But the falls in the pound and the rises in the bond yields accelerated today.
This is not, to be absolutely clear, the kind of response any chancellor wants to see after a budget – let alone their first budget in office.
Indeed, I can’t remember another budget which saw as hostile a market response as this one in many years – save for one.
That exception is, of course, the Liz Truss/Kwasi Kwarteng mini-budget of 2022. And here is where you’ll find the silver lining for Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves.
The rises in gilt yields and falls in sterling in recent hours and days are still far shy of what took place in the run up and aftermath of the mini-budget. This does not yet feel like a crisis moment for UK markets.
But nor is it anything like good news for the government. In fact, it’s pretty awful. Because higher borrowing rates for UK debt mean it (well, us) will end up paying considerably more to service our debt in the coming years.
Image: Rachel Reeves leaving 11 Downing Street before the budget. Pic: PA
And that debt is about to balloon dramatically because of the plans laid down by the chancellor this week.
And this is where things get particularly sticky for Ms Reeves.
In that budget documentation, the Office for Budget Responsibility said the chancellor could afford to see those gilt yields rise by about 1.3 percentage points, but then when they exceeded this level, the so-called “headroom” she had against her fiscal rules would evaporate.
In other words, she’d break those rules – which, recall, are considerably less strict than the ones she inherited from Jeremy Hunt.
Which raises the question: where are those gilt yields right now? How close are they to the danger zone where the chancellor ends up breaking her rules?
Short answer: worryingly close. Because, right now, the yield on five-year government debt (which is the maturity the OBR focuses on most) is more than halfway towards that danger zone – only 56 basis points away from hitting the point where debt interest costs eat up any leeway the chancellor has to avoid breaking her rules.
Now, we are not in crisis territory yet. Nor can every move in currencies and bonds be attributed to this budget.
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Markets are volatile right now. There’s lots going on: a US election next week and a Bank of England decision on interest rates next week.
The chancellor could get lucky. Gilt yields could settle in the coming days. But, right now, the UK, with its high level of public and private debt, with its new government which has just pledged to borrow many billions more in the coming years, is being closely scrutinised by the “bond vigilantes”.
Doctors are using AI software that does not meet minimum standards to record and transcribe patient meetings, according to a Sky News investigation.
NHS bosses have demanded GPs and hospitals stop using artificial intelligence software that could breach data protection rules and put patients at risk.
A warning sent out by NHS England this month came just weeks after the same body wrote to doctors about the benefits of using AI for notetaking – to allow them more time to concentrate on patients – using software known as Ambient Voice Technology, or “AVT”.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting will next week put AI at the heart of the reform plan to save the NHS in the 10-year plan for the health service in England.
But there is growing controversy around software that records, transcribes and summarises patient conversations using AI.
In April, NHS England wrote to doctors to sell the benefits of AVT and set out minimum national standards.
However, in a letter seen by Sky News, NHS bosses wrote to doctors to warn that unapproved software that breached minimum standards could harm patients.
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Image: The version seen in the GP demonstration to Sky News complies with all NHS England standards and guidance
The 9 June letter, from the national chief clinical information officer of NHS England, said: “We are now aware of a number of AVT solutions which, despite being non-compliant … are still being widely used in clinical practice.
“Several AVT suppliers are approaching NHS organisations … many of these vendors have not complied with basic NHS governance standards.
“Proceeding with non-compliant solutions risks clinical safety, data protection breaches, financial exposure, and fragmentation of broader NHS digital strategy.”
Sky News has previously revealed the danger of AI “hallucinations”, where the technology makes up answers then lies about them, which could prove dangerous in a healthcare setting.
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Is ChatGPT reliable despite its ‘hallucinations’?
NHS England sets minimum standards but does not tell NHS trusts and healthcare providers which software providers to use.
Sky News can now reveal there is growing pressure on NHS England and similar bodies to be more proactive.
Dr David Wrigley, deputy chair of the British Medical Association’s GP committee, said: “Undoubtedly, as a GP myself and my 35,000 colleagues, we’ve got responsibilities here – but in such a rapidly developing market when we haven’t got the technical knowledge to look into this.
“We need that help and support from those who can check that the products are safe, check they’re secure, that they’re suitable for use in the consulting room, and NHS England should do that and help and support us.”
Dr Wrigley continued: “We’re absolutely in favour of tech and in favour of taking that forward to help NHS patients, help my colleagues in their surgeries.
“But it’s got to be done in a safe and secure way because otherwise we could have a free for all – and then data could be lost, it could be leaking out, and that just isn’t acceptable.
“So we are not dinosaurs, we’re very pro-AI, but it has to be a safe, secure way.”
Image: The head of the NHS Confederation says the letter is ‘a really significant moment’
The spectre of dozens of little-known but ambitious AI companies lobbying hospitals and surgeries to get their listening products installed worries some healthcare professionals.
There are huge profits to be made in this technological arms race, but the question being asked is whether hundreds of different NHS organisations can really be expected to sift out the sharks.
Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confederation, said the letter was “a really significant moment”.
He said it was right for the NHS to experiment, but that it needed to be clearer what technology does and does not work safely.
“My own view is that the government should help in terms of the procurement decisions that trusts make and should advise on which AI systems – as we do with other forms of technology that we use in medicine – which ones are safe,” Mr Taylor said.
“We’ll need [government] to do a bit more to guide the NHS in the best way to use this.”
When pressed whether in the short term that actually makes it sound like it could be quite dangerous, Mr Taylor replied: “What you’ve seen with ambient voice technology is that kind of ‘let a thousand flowers bloom’ approach has got its limits.”
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Godfather of AI warns of its dangers
Earlier this year, the health secretary appeared to suggest unapproved technology was being used – but celebrated it as a sign doctors were enthusiastic for change.
Mr Streeting said: “I’ve heard anecdotally down the pub, genuinely down the pub, that some clinicians are getting ahead of the game and are already using ambient AI to kind of record notes and things, even where their practice or their trust haven’t yet caught up with them.
“Now, lots of issues there – not encouraging it – but it does tell me that contrary to this, ‘Oh, people don’t want to change, staff are very happy and they are really resistant to change’, it’s the opposite. People are crying out for this stuff.”
Image: GP Anil Mehta says AI software helps cut paperwork and patients are ‘extremely reassured’
Doctors who use AI that complies with national standards already say there are big benefits.
Anil Mehta, a doctor in the health secretary’s Ilford constituency, told Sky News he backed his MP’s drive for more AI technology in healthcare.
Dr Mehta demonstrated the version of Ambient Voice Technology that he uses.
This software, Accurx Scribe, has been developed and deployed in line with all current NHS England requirements for AVT, and there is no suggestion this product breaches any rules, standards or guidance.
Indeed, the company which developed it meets weekly with NHS England on creating a standardised approach to scale the benefits across the NHS.
“I spend 30% of my week doing paperwork,” Dr Mehta said.
“So I think once I’ve explained all of those features of what we’re doing, patients are extremely reassured. And I haven’t faced anybody that’s not wanted to have me do this.
He added: “(I) think that consultation with your doctor is extremely confidential, so that’s not changed at all.
“That remains confidential – so whether it’s a vulnerable adult, a vulnerable child, teenager, young child with a parent, I think the concept of that confidentiality remains.”
An NHS spokesperson said: “Ambient Voice Technology has the potential to transform care and improve efficiency and in April, the NHS issued guidance to support its use in a safe and secure way.
“We are working with NHS organisations and suppliers to ensure that all Ambient Voice Technology products used across the health service continue to be compliant with NHS standards on clinical safety and data security.”
Another heatwave could be on the way this weekend, forecasters say.
Temperatures could reach 30C, but some showers are expected before then amid more changeable weather.
Some parts of the UK will experience highs of 29C on Saturday, with the potential for 30C on Sunday and 31C on Monday, according to the Met Office.
Last Saturday was the hottest day of the year so far, with a provisional temperature of 33.2C recorded in Charlwood, Surrey.
The Met Office confirmed “many places” in England and “one or two areas” in Wales, including Cardiff, entered a heatwave last Friday.
A heatwave is recorded when an area reaches a certain temperature – the level of which varies across the UK – for three consecutive days.
Music fans can expect a mixture of sunshine and rain at this week’s Glastonbury Festival, where more than 200,000 people are expected to attend.
Image: Some parts of the UK entered a heatwave last week. Pic: PA
‘Risk of showers and thunderstorms’
Oli Claydon, from the Met Office, said Wednesday would be “warmer” with “an increasing risk of showers and thunderstorms”.
He said temperatures would reach a maximum of 27C on Thursday, with potential for heavy showers in the east and more persistent rain in the northwest of Scotland into the evening.
“Friday will see a maximum of 27C again as the high, the showers will clear away to the northeast, with local drizzle in parts of the South West and Wales through the day,” Mr Claydon added.
The South East of England is expected to experience the highest temperatures, potentially reaching 29C on Saturday and 30C on Sunday.
Temperatures could reach up to 31C on Monday, but there was lower certainty around that, Mr Claydon added.
Mr Claydon said it was possible the South East of England “could be looking at a short-lived localised heatwave”.
“When we had the warm spell last week it was much more widespread, we’re not likely to see that,” he added.
A man who pretended to live a “glamorous and luxurious” lifestyle while he conned people out of thousands of pounds in a designer handbag scam has pleaded guilty to fraud.
Jack Watkin, 26, who once starred in a Channel 4 documentary called Rich Kids of Instagram in 2016, described himself as the “Kardashian of Cheshire”, police say.
Image: Watkin has pleaded guilty to six counts of fraud. Pic: Cheshire Police
He persuaded people to invest huge sums – which he claimed was to buy and sell luxury handbags – but left them out of pocket.
Instead, he spent the money in Harrods and on stays at The Dorchester, a five-star London hotel on the famous Park Lane, a court heard.
Image: Watkin put forward an ‘outward facade’ of a glamorous lifestyle. Pic: Cheshire Police
Image: Watkin has been warned he faces a prison sentence. Pic: Cheshire Police
A jury at Chester Crown Court heard how he gained his victims’ trust by putting forward an “outward facade of a glamorous and luxurious lifestyle”.
On Tuesday, the second day of his trial, the defendant pleaded guilty to six counts of fraud.
Prosecutor Matthew Kerruish-Jones told the jury that Watkin “engendered trust and led a number of individuals to loan him large sums of money on the promise of either a financial return or luxury items”.
“Neither of which materialised,” he said.
He added: “The defendant would make excuses and avoid the complainants, all the while spending large sums of money on maintaining his seemingly lavish lifestyle.”
Image: A Celine handbag purchased by Watkin. Pic: Cheshire police
Watkin was said to have told victims their money would be used to buy Hermes handbags, which were then to be sold on for a profit.
The jury was told bag purchases from Hermes were only allowed to select registered customers and, because of their exclusivity, the bags often attracted a value far in excess of their original price when resold.
Watkin’s victims included friend Hannah Jakes, who he admitted defrauding of £98,500, and Christine Colbert, owner of Dress Cheshire, who was defrauded of £43,800.
He also defrauded his father, Jason Watkin, of £24,500.
Andor Farkas, a barman at Harrods, was victim of a £14,000 fraud and had believed Watkin, a regular customer, was a millionaire, the court heard.
Watkin also admitted fraud of more than £13,000 on James Irlam, who was told by Watkin he had a personal relationship with the director of Hermes and was able to source handbags.
He also pleaded guilty to the £840 fraud of Naheem Akhtar, who the court heard had given Watkin the money for a pair of Lora Piana shoes which he never received.
Detective Constable Gareth Yates said: “Jack Watkin is a male who has built a lifestyle on social media, on Instagram, and that lifestyle is one of exuberance.
“So if anyone was to look at that profile, you would see fancy hotels, luxury cars, designer clothing, and he created a following, and that following allowed him to create a ruse to be the fraudster we now know, and convicted fraudster.”
He added: “He often described himself as the Kardashian of Cheshire. What my understanding from that would be is that he is an individual of wealth and has the ability to purchase wealthy items, as a result of that he then gets notoriety, from an Instagram perspective, followers, people. People follow him with the desire to be him.”
Watkin was remanded in custody and is due to be sentenced on 3 September.
He was warned by Judge Simon Berkson he faces a prison sentence.