The next five years will hurt disposable income and wages will stagnate further following Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget, an influential thinktank has said.
Household disposable income, or living standards, will be the worst under any Labour government since 1955 when inflation is factored in, the Resolution Foundation said.
The thinktank also said pay will stagnate in the middle of the parliament as higher inflation lessens pay rises and growth is slowed in an already challenging economic environment.
It will mean that in 2028, pay adjusted for inflation – real wages – is forecast to have grown on average by just £13 a week over the past 20 years, according to analysis from the foundation.
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Budget explained in 60 seconds
Previous analysis from the thinktank showed weekly wages had increased by just £16 in 14 years when inflation was factored in.
But the foundation added that households’ disposable income will grow more throughout the five-year parliamentary term than the last – by an expected 0.5% a year, compared to 0.3% under the Conservative government.
Inflation will rise as a result of employers passing on the national insurance contributions to customers, the introduction of VAT on private school fees and the reform of vehicle tax, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said.
The OBR predicts UK economic growth to be 1.1% in 2024, peaking at 2% in 2025 before falling to 1.85% in 2026, 1.5% in 2027, and 1.5% in 2028 before rising again to 1.6% in the final year of the parliament.
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The focus on boosting growth and increasing public investment was singled out in their comment as was the move to having only one fiscal event, a budget, a year.
The bosses of the Premier League and English Football League (EFL) have held secret talks aimed at reviving an industry-wide deal ahead of the launch of the government’s new football watchdog.
Sky News has learnt that Richard Masters, the Premier League chief executive, his EFL counterpart, Trevor Birch, and executives from clubs including Arsenal, Brentford, West Ham, Lincoln City, Norwich City and Preston North End met this week to discuss a wide-ranging football industry agreement.
Sources said this weekend that the meeting represented a fresh attempt by the sport’s key players to reach a deal on financial redistribution, its annual calendar, resource-sharing and other key issues before the Independent Football Regulator (IFR) is formally established.
One said that a deal would send a powerful signal to ministers that English football was able to self-regulate in the best interests of all of its key stakeholders.
Key to any agreement between the Premier League and the EFL would be the so-called New Deal, which has been under discussion for years, but which has stalled in the last 12 months.
While no formal proposal was ever tabled by the top flight, one detailed plan involved a total of £925m of additional funding being handed by the Premier League to the EFL over a six-year period.
The most recent blueprint included provision for an immediate £44m payment to the lower leagues, followed by a further £44m within months.
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This £88m, however, would have been pitched as a loan that would be repayable by the EFL over a period of more than six years.
The Premier League had decided to make the vote independent of any conditions attached to wider financial reform of English football, alarming a number of top-flight owners.
English football’s top flight already hands £1.6bn to the rest of English professional football every three years under an ‘evergreen’ deal.
Since the last detailed New Deal negotiations took place between Premier League clubs, the EFL has struck a more lucrative five-year broadcast deal with Sky Sports, which is part of the same ownership structure as Sky News.
One source suggested that meant a future offer from the top flight was unlikely to be as large as the last one mooted in 2023.
Further talks are understood to be likely following Monday’s meeting, which one insider said had been “constructive”.
Legislation to establish the IFR is progressing through parliament.
Sky News revealed earlier this month that Christian Purslow, the former Aston Villa and Liverpool chief executive, and Kick It Out chair Sanjay Bhandari, were two of the three candidates on the shortlist to chair the IFR.
The identity of the other is unclear.
Clubs from both the Premier League and EFL have argued that the watchdog will impose unnecessary and unsustainable costs on them, and that its creation comes at a time when Sir Keir Starmer’s government is trying to shrink the regulatory burden on the private sector in order to stimulate economic growth.
Football executives have also complained that national insurance hikes announced in Rachel Reeves’s Budget last October will also have a severely detrimental impact on the sport’s finances.
Clubs argue that they have also been stymied by post-Brexit immigration rules which have imposed restrictions on player trading and development.
This weekend, the Premier League and EFL declined to comment.
Fujitsu has agreed to begin talks with the UK government on contributing to compensation for victims of the Post Office scandal.
Hundreds of sub-postmasters were falsely accused of stealing from their branches between 1999 and 2015.
Fujitsu developed the faulty Horizon computer system responsible for erroneous shortfalls in accounting which led to wrongful convictions. They also supported the Post Office in its prosecutions.
More than a year ago, Fujitsu boss Paul Patterson said the company had a “moral obligation” to contribute towards redress for victims.
Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds and Mr Patterson today held a “positive and constructive” meeting in Japan – where Fujitsu agreed to begin talks on compensation.
The UK government “welcomes Fujitsu’s repeated commitment to its moral obligation to contribute” towards compensation for the Horizon scandal victims, a joint statement said.
Image: Jonathan Reynolds, seen here at the Post Office Horizon IT inquiry, travelled to Japan for the meeting. Pic: PA
Ahead of the completion of the inquiry into the scandal, the pair “agreed to progress discussions regarding Fujitsu’s contribution, acknowledging many parties are involved,” it added.
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Officials will “continue to engage with Fujitsu”, but the UK government will not be making a “running commentary” on discussions, the statement said.
It also said the government is “grateful” for Fujitsu’s engagement with the Post Office inquiry “and its continued focus on delivering its public services commitments in the UK”.
Janet Walters, 68, lost her husband Terry in February – a week before a letter arrived offering “less than half” of his original claim for financial redress.
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‘Totally disgusted by length of time it’s taken’
Terry Walters was one of 555 sub-postmasters who won a legal battle against the Post Office in 2019.
Janet described the length of time many victims have had to wait for an offer of compensation as another “scandal”.
“I’ve told them I will not accept [the offer],” Janet told Sky News. “I think it’s an utter disgrace.
“It’s a scandal what they did with the Horizon system, it’s a scandal now because of the length of time it’s taken [on redress].”
Image: Protestors outside the Post Office Horizon IT inquiry last year. Pic: PA
Thousands waiting for compensation
New figures show more than £768m has been now paid to more than 5,100 victims across all redress schemes.
The Department for Business and Trade said this was a “more than tripling” of the total amount of redress paid since June 2024.
There are, however, still hundreds waiting for compensation in the GLO (Group Litigation Order) scheme, with more than 200 yet to receive full redress.
There are also more than 4,000 yet to be paid in the Horizon Shortfall Scheme (HSS), although since last month, over 700 have received compensation.
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Post Office scandal children seek justice
In a separate statement after the meeting in Japan, Mr Reynolds said: “We must never forget the lives ruined by the Horizon scandal and no amount of redress can take away that pain. But justice can and must be done.
“This government is determined to hold those responsible to account and will continue to make rapid progress on compensation and redress.
“Since we took office, we have more than tripled the total amount of redress paid to victims, and today we took another significant step towards justice.”
The widow of a Post Office scandal victim, who received a compensation offer days after his death, has described the situation as an “utter disgrace”.
Janet Walters, 68, lost her husband Terry in February – a week before a letter arrived offering “less than half” of his original claim for financial redress.
Terry Walters – whose funeral is taking place today – was one of 555 sub-postmasters who won a legal battle against the Post Office in 2019.
Hundreds were falsely accused, and many wrongly convicted, of stealing from their branches between 1999 and 2015.
Image: Janet and Terry Walters
Janet has described the length of time many victims have had to wait for offers of compensation as another “scandal”.
“I’ve told them I will not accept [the offer],” Janet tells Sky News. “I think it’s an utter disgrace.
“Not when I look at him and I think, no, what you’ve been through – I won’t just take anything and go away.
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“It’s a scandal what they did with the Horizon system, it’s a scandal now because of the length of time it’s taken [on redress].”
Terry, who died aged 74, was part of the GLO (Group Litigation Order) Scheme established after the 2019 High Court win.
Its aim is to restore sub-postmasters to the financial position they would have been in had they not become victims of faulty Horizon software which caused false accounting shortfalls.
Terry had his Post Office contract terminated in 2008. He and Janet lost their business and then their family home.
They moved in to rented accommodation where they lived for the past 15 years.
Image: Janet and Terry Walters lost their business and family home after he had his Post Office contract ended
Janet said Terry’s claim was put forward in February 2024 and it has taken a year to receive an offer for redress from the government.
“It should have been a 40-day turnaround of an offer,” she says. “And it’s taken 12 months to receive an offer, an offer which came after Terry had passed away.
“They wanted a stroke report back in September to drag it out a bit more, to see if it’s being caused by all the stress from the Post Office.”
“I think it contributed considerably to the whole state of him,” she added.
Image: Terry died a week before the redress scheme’s offer arrived
Postmasters should be given ‘the benefit of the doubt’, says campaigner
Lord Beamish, a prominent campaigner for justice for Post Office victims, says the redress offer process should “err on the side of the postmaster rather than the Post Office”.
“I think it has been bureaucratic in the past, and I think it’s been trying to get information which is difficult to actually obtain,” he says.
“I think in those cases the benefit of the doubt should be put on the postmaster.”
Image: Terry lost his Post Office in 2008
Lord Beamish is also critical of the 40-working-day turnaround for offers.
“I think individual cases should be dealt with on an individual basis,” he says.
“That 40 days shouldn’t be sacrosanct. If you think it can be turned around within two days or a day, do it.”
He also says “getting people around a table and trying to get a resolution should be the main aim… If it’s questioning about more information – that shouldn’t be a reason for undue delay.”
More than 3,500 sub-postmasters still waiting for compensation
Lord Beamish also highlights concerns over the fact more than 60 victims are yet to submit any claims for redress because they are “very damaged by this process”.
The Department for Business and Trade (DBT) said: “We are sorry to hear of Terry’s death and our thoughts are with Janet and the rest of his family and friends.”
They added they have now issued 407 offers to the 425 GLO claimants “who have submitted full claims” and are “making offers to 89% of GLO claimants within 40 working days of receipt of a full claim, with over half of eligible claimants having now settled their claim.”
The DBT also said it has “doubled” the amount of payments under the Labour government to “provide postmasters with full and fair redress”.
The latest government data shows that out of the 425 GLO claimants, 265 have had their claims paid, with 160 waiting.
According to the figures for the HSS (Horizon Shortfall Scheme), 2,090 out of 2,417 eligible claims made before their original deadline in 2020 have been paid – leaving over 300 still waiting.
Out of the 4,665 “late” claims, 1,260 have been paid, with more than 3,400 now waiting.