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The next five years will hurt disposable income and wages will stagnate further following Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget, an influential thinktank has said.

Household disposable income, or living standards, will be the worst under any Labour government since 1955 when inflation is factored in, the Resolution Foundation said.

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The thinktank also said pay will stagnate in the middle of the parliament as higher inflation lessens pay rises and growth is slowed in an already challenging economic environment.

It will mean that in 2028, pay adjusted for inflation – real wages – is forecast to have grown on average by just £13 a week over the past 20 years, according to analysis from the foundation.

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Budget explained in 60 seconds

Previous analysis from the thinktank showed weekly wages had increased by just £16 in 14 years when inflation was factored in.

But the foundation added that households’ disposable income will grow more throughout the five-year parliamentary term than the last – by an expected 0.5% a year, compared to 0.3% under the Conservative government.

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Rising prices

Prices will rise more because of the budget and growth will be weaker in part due to the rise in employer’s national insurance, it added.

Inflation will rise as a result of employers passing on the national insurance contributions to customers, the introduction of VAT on private school fees and the reform of vehicle tax, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said.

The OBR predicts UK economic growth to be 1.1% in 2024, peaking at 2% in 2025 before falling to 1.85% in 2026, 1.5% in 2027, and 1.5% in 2028 before rising again to 1.6% in the final year of the parliament.

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The OBR reached the same conclusion as the Resolution Foundation on disposable income. It also anticipates it will grow just over 0.5% a year.

Some positive response

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has broadly welcomed the UK budget, praising the proposed debt reduction targets and tax-raising measures.

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The focus on boosting growth and increasing public investment was singled out in their comment as was the move to having only one fiscal event, a budget, a year.

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Business

Plans to drill Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields thwarted in court

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Plans to drill Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields thwarted in court

Plans to develop the UK’s largest untapped oilfield have been thwarted in a major climate court case.

A Scottish court ruled the previous Conservative government acted “unlawfully” when it green-lit the offshore Rosebank oilfield and smaller Jackdaw gas project.

The judge said the assessment of the projects’ climate damage failed to acknowledge the impact of burning the oil and gas, rather than just from getting them out of the ground.

The case is a victory for climate campaigners – the latest in a series of fossil fuel projects toppled in a domino effect triggered by a “game-changing” court ruling in June.

But the projects could yet still go ahead.

The new Labour administration, elected last July on a mandate to tackle climate change, must now consider the full climate impact of the so-called “downstream” emissions, and make a fresh decision, the court said.

Oil and gas still provide more than two thirds of the UK’s energy, although the volumes in Rosebank and Jackdaw would not dramatically lower UK imports. That makes any future decision on them “political”, said Dr Ewan Gibbs, energy historian at Glasgow University.

Labour could sign off on them while still sticking to its election promise of “no new licenses” for North Sea projects, as these projects already have licences, but just need final government consent.

Campaigners celebrate ‘historic win’

Philip Evans, senior campaigner at Greenpeace UK, which brought the Jackdaw case, said: “This is a historic win – the age of governments approving new drilling sites by ignoring their climate impacts is over.”

The case argued by campaign groups Greenpeace and Uplift last year was boosted by a landmark judgment from the higher Supreme Court in June, which ruled these types of emissions could no longer be omitted.

Greenpeace called it “game-changing”.

Since then, other projects like the West Cumbria coal mine were toppled on the same grounds, and the new government said it would no longer defend such projects in court.

During a hearing in November, the sites’ developers – Shell, Equinor and Ithaca Energy – said they accepted the previous approvals had in fact been unlawful.

But they argued the projects should be allowed to proceed anyway, as they were at advanced stages and the goalposts had been moved.

Why fossil fuel companies are also pleased

Today, Lord Ericht from Scotland’s Court of Session overturned the approvals.

“The public interest in authorities acting lawfully and the private interest of members of the public in climate change outweigh the private interest of the developers,” he said.

“The decisions will be [quashed], and can be taken again, this time taking into account downstream emissions.”

In the meantime the companies are allowed to continue developing their sites, but not extract any of the oil and gas.

A spokesperson for Rosebank’s primary developer Equinor said: “We welcome today’s ruling and are pleased with the outcome which allows us to continue with progressing the Rosebank project while we await new consents.

“Rosebank is critical for the UK’s economic growth, with an estimated 77% (£6.6bn) of total direct investment benefiting UK businesses.”

Rosebank contains about 300 million barrels of oil, most of which would be exported. The smaller amounts of gas from Jackdaw were destined for UK use, but were not expected to make a dent in household bills.

A spokesperson for the government’s energy department said it will in spring issue updated guidance on environmental assessments, and companies could reapply for permissions under those terms.

They added: “Our priority is to deliver a fair, orderly and prosperous transition in the North Sea in line with our climate and legal obligations, which drives towards our clean energy future of energy security, lower bills, and good, long-term jobs.”

A spokesperson for Jackdaw developer Shell said: “Swift action is needed from the government so that we and other North Sea operators can make decisions about vital UK energy infrastructure.”

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Post Office unveils new wave of cuts to fuel transformation plan

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Post Office unveils new wave of cuts to fuel transformation plan

The Post Office has unveiled plans for scores more job cuts as part of a transformation plan aimed at boosting payouts for thousands of sub-postmasters.

Sky News has learnt the state-owned company was in the process of informing about 100 senior managers on Wednesday that their roles would be affected by its proposals.

Some of those individuals are expected to see their jobs disappear, although the precise number was unclear.

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The changes represent the latest phase of an overhaul outlined by chairman Nigel Railton last November, in which he said he wanted to add £250m annually to Post Office sub-postmaster remuneration.

“The Post Office has a 360-year history of public service and today we want to secure that service for the future by learning from past mistakes and moving forward for the benefit of all postmasters,” Mr Railton said at the time.

“We can, and will, restore pride in working for a business with a legacy of service, rather than one of scandal.”

More on Post Office Scandal

The Post Office has been engulfed in crisis since the scale of the Horizon IT scandal became clear, with hundreds of sub-postmasters wrongly prosecuted for theft and fraud offences.

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Brought to a wider public audience by the ITV drama Mr Bates vs The Post Office, it has been labelled Britain’s biggest miscarriage of justice.

Many of those affected suffered ill health, marital breakdowns or died before they were exonerated.

Former chief executive Paula Vennells, who insisted for years that the Horizon system was robust, was effectively stripped of her damehood in disgrace last year.

The Department for Business and Trade (DBT) has asked BCG, the management consultancy, to examine options for mutualising the Post Office, with further details expected to become clear this year.

A Post Office spokesman declined to comment on Wednesday morning.

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Chancellor Rachel Reeves announces backing for third Heathrow runway

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Chancellor Rachel Reeves announces backing for third Heathrow runway

The government supports a third runway at Heathrow, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has announced.

Ms Reeves said the expansion of Europe’s busiest airport was “badly needed” to connect the UK to the world and open up new opportunities for growth.

A third runway will “unlock further growth, boost investment increase exports and make the UK more open and more connected”, she said.

Politics latest: Reaction to third runway decision

It could increase potential GDP (Gross Domestic Product) by 0.43% by 2050 according to a Frontier Economics study, she said. 60% of that boost would go to areas outside London and the southeast, increasing trade opportunities like Scotch whiskey and Scottish salmon, she added.

Ms Reeves said an expansion could create more than 100,000 jobs.

The announcement has been welcomed by some business groups but has been met with anger from London’s Labour mayor Sadiq Khan, the Lib Dems, the Green Party and environmental groups.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch told Sky News over the weekend she supports a third runway.

A plane taking off from Heathrow Airport. Pic: PA
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A plane taking off from Heathrow Airport. Pic: PA

As part of a speech on funding infrastructure across the UK to promote growth, Ms Reeves said: “Persistent delays have caused doubts about our seriousness towards improving our economic prospects.”

She added that business groups like the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) and the Chambers of Commerce (BCC), as well as trade unions “are clear – a third runway is badly needed”.

Investments in green aviation fuel

Ms Reeves said the UK is “already making great strides in transitioning to cleaner and greener aviation” and announced the government is investing £63m over the next year into the Advanced Fuel Fund grant programme to support the development of sustainable aviation fuel production plants.

The government will be accepting proposals until the summer and will then carry out a “full assessment” through the Airport National Policy Statement to “ensure a third runway is delivered in line with our legal, environmental and climate objectives”.

Ms Reeves said the government expects any associated surface transport costs to the third runway’s construction to be be financed through private funding.

She added a decision on plans to expand Gatwick and Luton, which are currently under way, will be made by the transport secretary “shortly”.

Read more:
A long history of Heathrow’s third runway plans
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How do we judge Labour’s success?

A decades-old debate

The debate around whether Europe’s busiest airport should expand has been circling over British politics for decades.

Ms Reeves‘s decision will likely put her at odds with Climate Secretary Ed Miliband, who has said airport expansions will not go ahead if they cannot meet climate targets.

However, he said last week he would not resign if the government approved a third runway despite threatening to resign from Gordon Brown’s cabinet as climate change secretary in 2009 over the plans and in 2018 he said an expansion was “very likely” to make air pollution worse.

He has now said the government can meet both its growth and net zero missions together.

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Labour’s London mayor Sadiq Khan has opposed the government’s plan

London mayor opposes runway

Sadiq Khan said he remained opposed to a third runway “because of the severe impact it will have on noise, air pollution and meeting our climate change targets”.

He said he will carefully scrutinise any new proposals, “including the impact it will have on people living in the area and the huge knock-on effects for our transport infrastructure”.

“Despite the progress that’s been made in the aviation sector to make it more sustainable, I’m simply not convinced that you can have hundreds of thousands of additional flights at Heathrow every year without a hugely damaging impact on our environment,” he added.

File photo dated 4/1/2016 of an Emirates Airbus A380 plane lands over houses near Heathrow Airport, west London. Exposure to aircraft noise could increase the likelihood of suffering heart attacks, according to a study. Researchers at University College London (UCL) found people who live near airports - and are subjected to noise from planes taking off and landing - may be at greater risk of poor heart health. Issue date: Wednesday January 8, 2025.
Image:
Heathrow is right next to large residential areas. Pic: PA

Green Party MP Sian Berry said expanding airports “in the face of a climate emergency is the most irresponsible announcement from any government I have seen since the Liz Truss budget”.

Conservative shadow chancellor Mel Stride accused Ms Reeves and Sir Keir Starmer and “their job-destroying budget” of being “the biggest barriers to growth”.

“What’s worse, the anti-growth chancellor could not rule out coming back with yet more tax rises in March,” he added.

“This is a Labour government run by politicians who do not understand business, or where wealth comes from. Under new leadership, the Conservatives will continue to back businesses and hold this government to account.”

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