Why flooding in Spain has been so deadly – and why it could happen again
More than 200 people have died in Spain after nearly a year’s worth of rain fell in a matter of hours.
On Friday, there were at least 205 confirmed deaths in Valencia, two in Castilla La Mancha, and one in Andalusia.
Local authorities issued warnings late on Tuesday, but many say this gave them next-to-no time to prepare for the conditions that had killed dozens by Wednesday.
Here we look at what caused the flooding – and why they could happen again.
How quickly did the floods hit?
Heavy rain had already begun in parts of southern Spain on Monday.
In contrast to areas like Malaga, where residents told Sky News it had been “chucking it down for two days”, the rain did not start in the worst-hit region of Valencia until around 7pm on Tuesday.
At 8pm, people in Valencia received smartphone alerts warning them not to leave their homes.
But by then, many were already trapped in dangerous conditions, particularly in the south of the city where a major road had flooded, leaving drivers stuck in their cars.
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By Wednesday morning, more than 50 people had been found dead.
The Chiva area of Valencia had been hit by 491 litres per square metre of rain in eight hours. Only around 65 l/m2 usually falls in the whole of October.
Storms spread west on Wednesday night and into Thursday, bringing deadly conditions to Andalusia and Castilla La Mancha as well.
What caused them?
Heavy rain is not uncommon across eastern Spain at this time of year.
It’s caused by a weather phenomenon called DANA – ‘depresion aislada en niveles altos’ in Spanish – which translates as ‘isolated low-pressure system at high levels’.
DANA occurs when:
1) Cold air from the north moves south;
2) Warm air then blows over the Mediterranean, rising quickly and forming heavy clouds;
3) The low pressure from the north gets blocked by the high pressure above the water, causing it to slow down or stop completely.
A graphic shows how the DANA phenomenon happens
This creates storm-like conditions that cannot move anywhere else – so the rain falls over the same area for a sustained period of time.
What role did climate change play?
General flash floods and those caused by DANA specifically have struck Spain long before humans started warming the climate.
But climate change is making heavy rain worse, and therefore more dangerous.
That’s because hotter air is able to hold more moisture. So when it rains, it unleashes more water.
The current 1.3C increase in global temperatures since pre-industrial times means the air can carry about 9% more moisture.
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What caused the floods in Spain?
And higher sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean are a “key driver” of strong storms, said Dr Marilena Oltmanns, research scientist at the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton.
The world is on track for 3.1C warming by the end of this century, which is expected to make rain heavier still, increasing the chances of flash flooding and giving areas little time to respond.
Imperial College London’s lead for its World Weather Attribution (WWA) group Dr Friederike Otto says there is “no doubt about it”.
“These explosive downpours were intensified by climate change,” she says.
Professor Mark Smith, an expert in water science and health at the University of Leeds, adds that hotter summers also dry out the soil in the ground, which means it absorbs less rain – and more of it flows into rivers and lakes – which flood quicker.
Scale of devastation in Paiporta, Valencia on Thursday. Pic: Reuters
Abandoned and mangled cars in Valencia on Thursday. Pic: AP
Will they keep happening?
A red weather warning is in place for the Huelva area of Andalusia until Friday afternoon.
Beyond the warning period, storms are set to continue across parts of Spain for several days.
In the longer term, Dr Marilena Oltmanns says: “Given the long-term warming trend, both in the sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean region and the global air temperature, we expect the events like the currently observed one in Spain to become more frequent.”
Chiva and the surrounding worst-hit area also suffers from the unfortunate geography of being in a river catchment – where water feeds into the River Turia – and close to the mountains. And is not far from the sea.
That means water has little chance to absorb into the land and so builds up very quickly.
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This makes it all the more imperative that forecasts are accurate, authorities prepare accordingly, and residents respond quickly.
Professor Hannah Cloke, professor of Hydrology at the University of Reading, describes people dying in their cars and being swept away in the street as “entirely avoidable”.
“This suggests the system for alerting people to the dangers of floods in Valencia has failed,” she says.
“People need to understand that extreme weather warnings for floods are very different from regular weather reports. We need to consider flood warnings totally differently, more like fire alarms or earthquake sirens, and less like the way we browse daily weather forecasts on our phones or on the TV.”
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Residents: ‘No one came to rescue us’
Gareth Redmond-King, international analyst at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), says Spain’s tragedy should serve as a “wake-up call” to the UK.
“This is not about future events in a far-off place with a dramatically different climate from the UK. Spain is one of our nearest neighbours,” he warns.
Russia’s ability to outmatch Ukraine with artillery barrages on the battlefield has significantly reduced to just 1.5 Russian rounds for every Ukrainian shell fired back, Western officials have said.
This compares with Russian forces launching at least five times as many artillery rounds as Ukraine could in the war previously – with the ratio at times much higher even than that.
The Western officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, put the levelling out down to a “wide variety of factors”.
These factors include limitations in Russia’s defence production lines, difficulties with transporting more rounds to the frontline by rail, and strikes by Ukrainian drones against strategic stockpiles of Russian and North Korean ammunition supplies inside Russia.
In addition, they said Western supplies of ammunition were helping to bolster Ukraine’s armoury.
However, vast quantities of Russian glide bombs appear to be compensating for the reduction in the country’s advantage on the artillery front, the Western officials signalled.
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Army could be ‘worn out in a year’
One official said there had been a “massive increase in Russian glide bomb use on the frontline to devastating effect”.
They said Russian forces were still gaining ground in Ukraine but at a terrible cost.
Read more:
How bad are things for Ukraine?
What could a truce deal look like?
The Western officials repeated earlier Ukrainian claims that Russia lost more than 2,000 troops, killed or injured, in a single day last month fighting against Ukraine – the highest casualty rate of the war.
Moscow has consistently dismissed Russian casualty estimates by Ukraine and its allies.
The Kremlin does not publish up-to-date figures. Ukraine is also secretive about its losses.
One of the Western officials said the figures “speak to the brutality of the frontline – very Somme-esque”.
The Battle of the Somme in France was one of the largest and bloodiest battles of the First World War.
The Western official said Russian forces suffered 2,030 casualties on 28 November – “a new war high” and the first time the rate of dead and wounded had breached the 2,000-mark.
The official said the average daily rate of Russian dead and injured in Ukraine for the whole of November had topped 1,500 for a third straight month, putting the average at 1,523 personnel.
South Korea’s president needs to be removed from power after his shock decision to impose martial law this week, the country’s ruling party leader has said.
Yoon Suk Yeol rescinded the declaration six hours later on Tuesday, but protesters and opposition MPs have called for him to be impeached, with a vote due on Saturday.
People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon had said they are against impeachment, but he suggested that may change in light of “credible evidence” the president planned to arrest political leaders.
“I believe that President Yoon Suk Yeol’s immediate suspension of office is necessary to protect the Republic of Korea and its people in light of the newly revealed facts,” he said.
He did not explicitly call for impeachment, but claimed the president had ordered the arrest of prominent politicians on the grounds they were among “anti-state forces”.
The presidential office later denied any such order had been given, according to the Yonhap news agency, while the government said it was not preparing another martial law declaration.
Fearing another attempt to declare martial law, opposition politicians were rotating through parliament’s hall to block any attempt, a Democratic Party official said.
Read more:
Who is the president who plunged South Korea into crisis?
Politicians block the entry of the National Assembly. Pic: Reuters
It’s unclear if the president was meant to arrive at the National Assembly, where protesters have gathered to call for his impeachment.
For an impeachment to pass, the bill would need support from two-thirds of the 300-member assembly.
As the president’s party has 108 politicians, eight would need to side with the opposition for the bill to succeed.
If the president is impeached, he would be suspended until a trial can be held at the Constitutional Court, while the prime minister would serve as acting leader.
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The South Koreans who fought martial law
Meanwhile, the national police is investigating the president and Kim Yong-hyun, the defence minister who resigned after allegedly encouraging martial law.
Broadcaster YTN reported government and military prosecutors are also carrying out a joint investigation, while South Korea’s defence ministry said on Friday it has suspended three commanders.
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The country’s special warfare commander, Kwak Jong-geun, claimed he defied an order from the former defence minister to drag politicians out of parliament. Instead, he said, he ordered troops not to enter.
“I knew it would be disobedience, but I did not order that mission,” he told an opposition politician’s YouTube channel, adding he ordered against carrying live ammunition.
“I told them not to go in.”
World
Syrian rebel who seized key city of Hama in latest blow for Bashar al Assad speaks to Sky News
A Syrian rebel who took part in the capture of the city of Hama has told Sky News they will continue to push on.
In the latest blow to President Bashar al Assad, rebels in the Middle Eastern country took control of the central city on Thursday.
Speaking to Sky News, one rebel said: “Just as we liberated Aleppo and now Hama, we will proceed to Homs, and Damascus, and Deir el Zor.”
He also claimed to have received support from the people in Hama.
A Syrian rebel fighter in Hama spoke to Sky News after taking the city
Abu Omar, a resident in the city of Hama
Abu Omar, a resident in the city, said they had been waiting “45 years… for this moment”.
When asked if he was afraid of the rebel attack, he said: “On the contrary, we’ve been waiting for this moment. Our children, our family, they’ve all come back to us.
“Everyone was a million times more scared before, praise God, we’ve been liberated. No more oppression and tyranny.”
Mr Omar added: “What’s happened to us here, has happened in Idlib and Aleppo… and the regime has completely failed.”
Rebels seize Hama
The Syrian army said it had withdrawn and taken up positions outside the city to protect civilians, hours after opposition fighters said they were marching towards its centre.
The insurgents said they had entered Syria’s fourth-largest city on Thursday after days of intense fighting with government forces on its outskirts.
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Air strikes hit Hama as rebels advance
The fall of Hama follows a lightning offensive by the jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) and Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army.
The surprise assault saw militants capture much of Syria’s largest city Aleppo last week and reignited the country’s civil war, where the frontlines have largely been frozen in place over the last few years.
Read more:
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The battle for Hama saw fierce battles inside the city, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
“If Hama falls, it means that the beginning of the regime’s fall has started,” the monitor’s chief, Rami Abdurrahman, said before the city was captured.
Hama is one of the few cities that remained under Mr Assad’s control during Syria’s civil war, which erupted in 2011 following a popular uprising.
The central city of Homs, Syria’s third-largest, is around 40km (25 miles) away and is likely to be the rebels’ next target.
It sits on a major crossroads in Syria, linking the capital Damascus to the north and the coast to the west.
Smoke billows near residential buildings in Aleppo. Pic: Reuters
Jihad Yazigi, editor of the Syria Report newsletter, said: “Assad now cannot afford to lose anything else.
“The big battle is the one coming against Homs. If Homs falls, we are talking of a potential change of regime.”
Mr Assad has been able to stay in power largely thanks to the help of his allies, Russia and Iran, but both countries – as well as the Iran-backed Hezbollah group – have been distracted by their own wars.
Russia has been preoccupied with its invasion of Ukraine since 2022 and Hezbollah in Lebanon has suffered heavy losses in its war with Israel.
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