World

Why flooding in Spain has been so deadly – and why it could happen again

Published

5 months ago

November 1, 2024

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More than 200 people have died in Spain after nearly a year’s worth of rain fell in a matter of hours.

On Friday, there were at least 205 confirmed deaths in Valencia, two in Castilla La Mancha, and one in Andalusia.

Local authorities issued warnings late on Tuesday, but many say this gave them next-to-no time to prepare for the conditions that had killed dozens by Wednesday.

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Here we look at what caused the flooding – and why they could happen again.

How quickly did the floods hit?

Heavy rain had already begun in parts of southern Spain on Monday.

In contrast to areas like Malaga, where residents told Sky News it had been “chucking it down for two days”, the rain did not start in the worst-hit region of Valencia until around 7pm on Tuesday.

At 8pm, people in Valencia received smartphone alerts warning them not to leave their homes.

But by then, many were already trapped in dangerous conditions, particularly in the south of the city where a major road had flooded, leaving drivers stuck in their cars.

By Wednesday morning, more than 50 people had been found dead.

The Chiva area of Valencia had been hit by 491 litres per square metre of rain in eight hours. Only around 65 l/m2 usually falls in the whole of October.

Storms spread west on Wednesday night and into Thursday, bringing deadly conditions to Andalusia and Castilla La Mancha as well.

What caused them?

Heavy rain is not uncommon across eastern Spain at this time of year.

It’s caused by a weather phenomenon called DANA – ‘depresion aislada en niveles altos’ in Spanish – which translates as ‘isolated low-pressure system at high levels’.

DANA occurs when:

1) Cold air from the north moves south;

2) Warm air then blows over the Mediterranean, rising quickly and forming heavy clouds;

3) The low pressure from the north gets blocked by the high pressure above the water, causing it to slow down or stop completely.

This creates storm-like conditions that cannot move anywhere else – so the rain falls over the same area for a sustained period of time.

What role did climate change play?

General flash floods and those caused by DANA specifically have struck Spain long before humans started warming the climate.

But climate change is making heavy rain worse, and therefore more dangerous.

That’s because hotter air is able to hold more moisture. So when it rains, it unleashes more water.

The current 1.3C increase in global temperatures since pre-industrial times means the air can carry about 9% more moisture.

And higher sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean are a “key driver” of strong storms, said Dr Marilena Oltmanns, research scientist at the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton.

The world is on track for 3.1C warming by the end of this century, which is expected to make rain heavier still, increasing the chances of flash flooding and giving areas little time to respond.

Imperial College London’s lead for its World Weather Attribution (WWA) group Dr Friederike Otto says there is “no doubt about it”.

“These explosive downpours were intensified by climate change,” she says.

Professor Mark Smith, an expert in water science and health at the University of Leeds, adds that hotter summers also dry out the soil in the ground, which means it absorbs less rain – and more of it flows into rivers and lakes – which flood quicker.

Will they keep happening?

A red weather warning is in place for the Huelva area of Andalusia until Friday afternoon.

Beyond the warning period, storms are set to continue across parts of Spain for several days.

In the longer term, Dr Marilena Oltmanns says: “Given the long-term warming trend, both in the sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean region and the global air temperature, we expect the events like the currently observed one in Spain to become more frequent.”

Chiva and the surrounding worst-hit area also suffers from the unfortunate geography of being in a river catchment – where water feeds into the River Turia – and close to the mountains. And is not far from the sea.

That means water has little chance to absorb into the land and so builds up very quickly.

This makes it all the more imperative that forecasts are accurate, authorities prepare accordingly, and residents respond quickly.

Professor Hannah Cloke, professor of Hydrology at the University of Reading, describes people dying in their cars and being swept away in the street as “entirely avoidable”.

“This suggests the system for alerting people to the dangers of floods in Valencia has failed,” she says.

“People need to understand that extreme weather warnings for floods are very different from regular weather reports. We need to consider flood warnings totally differently, more like fire alarms or earthquake sirens, and less like the way we browse daily weather forecasts on our phones or on the TV.”

Gareth Redmond-King, international analyst at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), says Spain’s tragedy should serve as a “wake-up call” to the UK.

“This is not about future events in a far-off place with a dramatically different climate from the UK. Spain is one of our nearest neighbours,” he warns.

World

Two Chinese citizens captured during fighting in eastern Ukraine, Zelenskyy says

Published

2 mins ago

April 8, 2025

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Two Chinese citizens captured during fighting in eastern Ukraine, Zelenskyy says

Volodymyr Zelenskyy says two Chinese citizens have been captured while fighting in eastern Ukraine.

He said his forces had fought six Chinese soldiers and two of them had been taken prisoner. He added he had ordered officials to obtain an explanation from Beijing.

“We have information that there are many more Chinese citizens in the occupier’s units than just two. We are now finding out all the facts,” he added.

As it happened: Zelenskyy demands reaction from US

China is an ally of Russia and has been accused of helping its war in Ukraine, though Beijing has repeatedly denied allegations that it has supplied Kremlin forces with weapons.

“Russia’s involvement of China in this war in Europe, directly or indirectly, is a clear signal that Putin is going to do anything but end the war,” Mr Zelenskyy said. “He is looking for ways to continue the war.”

Mr Zelenskyy described China as having joined Russia’s war against Ukraine and said he expected the US to react.

There was no immediate comment from China.

How many Chinese are actually fighting for Russia?

John Sparks

International correspondent

@sparkomat

Were they volunteers – or mercenaries – who had signed up to fight in the Russian army on their own?

Alternatively, does the Chinese government sanction their involvement – or even encourage it? That would make the situation far more serious.

The capture of these Chinese nationals in Donetsk begs another question – how many Chinese are actually fighting for Russia? In his written post on social media platform Telegram, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said “there are many more Chinese citizens” other than these two.

Still, the Ukrainian president works hard to suggest the Chinese, officially at least, are blameless.

“Russia’s involvement of China in this war… is a clear signal that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is going to do anything but end the war,” he writes on Telegram.

This is a generous interpretation of China’s approach to the conflict, which is quite openly contradictory.

World

What we learn from video of captured Chinese national in Ukraine – and the serious questions it raises

Published

6 hours ago

April 8, 2025

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What we learn from video of captured Chinese national in Ukraine - and the serious questions it raises

In a carefully written post on social media platform Telegram, Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused the Russian army of deploying Chinese citizens on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine.

What about the proof? Well, the Ukrainian president says his security services captured two people from China in the Donetsk region – along with identity documents, personal data and their bank cards.

Follow latest: Zelenskyy demands reaction from US

A video of a man in military fatigues who had been captured by Ukraine was pinned to the bottom of the statement.

We get snippets of a conversation where the alleged combatant seems to be talking about the events that led to his capture.

“When we arrived at the place… and then my commander.” The man gestures at the floor and ceiling, making shooting noises. “I was also injured.”

These details will make it difficult for the Chinese government to deny the incident out of hand, although they are highly unlikely to supply additional information.

Important details like, who are they? What function(s) do they fulfil in Ukraine’s occupied territories?

Were they volunteers – or mercenaries – who had signed up to fight in the Russian army on their own?

Alternatively, does the Chinese government sanction their involvement – or even encourage it?

That would make the situation far more serious.

The capture of these Chinese nationals in Donetsk begs another question – how many Chinese are actually fighting for Russia? In his post, Mr Zelenskyy said “there are many more Chinese citizens” other than these two.

Still, the Ukrainian president works hard to suggest the Chinese, officially at least, are blameless.

“Russia’s involvement of China in this war… is a clear signal that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is going to do anything but end the war,” he writes on Telegram.

This is a generous interpretation of China’s approach to the conflict, which is quite openly contradictory.

On one hand, Chinese President Xi Jinping describes China as a neutral party to the conflict, while simultaneously offering Mr Putin long-term political and economic support.

In fact, he described their partnership as a “no limits” one in a phone call with Mr Putin on the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Mr Zelenskyy then, is making a point with this post – but he does not want to make the situation any worse.

World

What China could do next as Trump’s tariff war ramps up

Published

9 hours ago

April 8, 2025

admin

What China could do next as Trump's tariff war ramps up

The severity cannot be overstated, if an additional 50% tariffs are levied on all Chinese goods it will decimate trade between the world’s two biggest economies.

Remember, 50% would sit on top of what is already on the table: 34% announced last week, 20% announced at the start of US President Donald Trump’s term, and some additional tariffs left over from his first term in office.

In total, it means all Chinese goods would face tariffs of over 100%, some as high as 120%.

It’s a price that makes any trade almost impossible.

China is really the only nation in the world at the moment that is choosing to take a stand.

While others are publicly making concessions and sending delegations to negotiate, China has clearly calculated that not being seen to be bullied is worth the cost that retaliation will bring.

The real question, though, is if the US does indeed impose this extra 50% tomorrow, what could or would China do next?

It has said it will “fight to the end”, but what does that mean?

In reality, there are few good options.

There are some obvious measures that China will almost certainly enact.

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Further export controls on rare earth minerals (crucial for the development of high-tech products) are one example. China controls a huge proportion of the world’s supply, but the US would likely find workarounds in time.

Hiking tariffs on high-impact US products such as agricultural goods is another option, but there is only so far this could go.

The potentially more impactful options have significant drawbacks for Beijing.

It could, for instance, target high-profile American companies such as Apple and Tesla, but this isn’t ideal at a time when China is trying to attract more foreign investment, and some devaluation of the currency is possible, but it would also come with adverse effects.

Other options are more political and come with the risk of escalation beyond the economic arena.

In an opinion piece this morning, the editor of Xinhua, China’s state news agency, speculated that China could cease all cooperation with the US on the war against fentanyl.

This has been a major political issue for Mr Trump, and it’s hard to see it would not constitute some sort of red line for him.

Other options touted include banning the import of American films, or perhaps calling for the Chinese public to boycott all American products.

Anything like this comes with a sense that the world’s two most powerful superpowers might be teetering on the edge of not just a total economic decoupling, but cultural separation too.

There is understandably serious nervousness about how that could spiral and the precedent it sets.