There are two main differences between election coverage in the UK and the United States.
Last July, at 10pm, Sky News’ exit poll graphic predicted a Labour landslide and a massive defeat for the Conservatives.
Confirmation of this forecast was a long time coming since constituency results are only announced by local returning officers once all votes have been counted.
Americans do things differently and for good reason. Polling stations close much earlier in the east than they do in the west. When voting has hours to go in some states, they’ve already started counting elsewhere.
There is a “wait for it” moment when voting closes in west coast states and the broadcasters can reveal the national exit poll headline, but this won’t tell us the winner.
Instead, it will tell us the types of people who have voted for Harris or Trump and the issues that dominated the outcome.
So far, one-nil to the UK, I think. But, here comes the next bit.
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Instead of postponing announcements about votes until every last one has been accounted for, each state then begins releasing figures as and when votes are being counted.
And they do so in such a way where we can compare this time with previously. Not for them declarations in sports halls with dodgy microphones but rather running tallies for precincts (think our local council wards) and counties (ranging from tiny to huge).
It’s these data that US broadcasters such as NBC will use to “call” each state’s vote for president. The television networks are big players in the US election drama.
Image: Early voting in Henderson, Nevada, on 19 October. Pic: AP
Over 160 million votes will be cast in the election, more than five times the number cast in our general election last July.
And while the outcome of our election was in no doubt once the broadcasters’ exit poll revealed Labour had won a landslide majority, that will be far from the case in the battle for the presidency.
As in the UK, a consortium of US broadcasters, comprising NBC, ABC, CBS and CNN, form the national election pool.
This commissions the consumer research company, Edison Research, to survey voters in over 600 polling places as people exit their polling station.
The survey also includes telephone interviews with people casting a ballot before 5 November. Once completed, the US exit poll will have obtained responses from over 20,000 voters, a similar number that were collected for the general election.
Two surveys of voters, therefore, but now important differences in their purpose become clear.
The UK version is entirely focussed on predicting the distribution of seats among the competing parties and, thereby, the winner and its likely House of Commons majority. Over recent elections it has proved pretty good at achieving this task.
Image: Pic: AP
Image: US pollsters are more interested in campaign issues that mattered to voters. Pic: AP
By contrast, the US version is much less concerned about predicting the winner (and there are very good reasons for taking this approach) and more interested in the campaign issues that mattered to voters, how they viewed the candidates and what factors motivated them to make their choices.
The survey identifies key demographic characteristics for each respondent – men or women, age, ethnic heritage, and educational qualifications.
Combined with questions relating to their choice for president this time around, their usual partisan preference, Democrat, Republican or none of the above, the survey data enables a considered and detailed analysis of what kinds of voters made what kinds of choices and their reasons for doing so.
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3:16
How will America vote on election day?
Broadcast organisations, including Sky News, will use the 2024 exit poll to highlight differences between men and women voters in relation to the abortion issue.
The poll will also show how the economy ranked among voters and whether Donald Trump’s stance on low taxation gained or lost him votes among different social groups. Did Kamala Harris’s association with the Biden administration and the challenges of illegal immigration prove to be a positive or a negative in her bid for the White House?
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All very interesting, but aren’t we all tuning in to see who’s won? While the US exit poll can, in theory, be used for this purpose it is unwise to do so in what is proving to be an extremely close race.
Sky’s tracker of national polls shows the Democrat blue line and the Republican red line moving ever closer together but with Harris currently marginally ahead. But even if she loses the national vote, the polls would still be within the margin of error.
Of course, she could yet win more votes than Trump and still lose the election, as Hillary Clinton discovered when she lost to him in 2016. Winning votes is necessary, but it’s where those votes are and the available number of electoral college votes that matters the most.
Trump beat Clinton because his votes were better distributed than hers. History could be repeated.
Releasing precinct-level voting numbers as counting progresses is essential to US election coverage. The national election pool employs over a thousand researchers to collect votes from each of the 50 states.
Additionally, NBC News will augment these figures with more detailed analysis prior to making its call for each state and the electoral college votes for Harris or Trump. The first to reach 270 college votes wins.
Professor John Lapinsky of Pennsylvania University leads NBC’s decision desk.
Although the broadcasters have pooled resources to bring us the exit poll, each will independently analyse the actual voting figures as they become available.
Lapinsky and his team on behalf of NBC will call the state for either Harris or Trump only when they are satisfied that the leading candidate’s vote is sufficiently large that he or she cannot be overtaken.
This a big moment for each broadcaster, especially when the race is likely to be close and where social media may be playing a significant role in stoking accusations and counter-accusations of a fraudulent election.
With so much at stake, these decisions will take time and patience.
Our July election was done and dusted in time for the breakfast bulletins. It could be days of counting, recounting and legal appeals before we know the winner of the 2024 presidential election.
US President Donald Trump has told Hamas to hand over Israeli hostages or “you are dead”.
The threat, made over social media, came hours after the White House confirmed that US officials had broken with tradition to hold direct talks with Hamas.
The US has previously avoided direct contact with the group owing to Washington’s longstanding position not to negotiate with terrorists – with Hamas having been designated as a terrorist group in the US since 1997.
In a press conference on Wednesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said there had been “ongoing talks and discussions” between the US officials and Hamas.
Image: File pic: AP
But she would not be drawn on the substance of the talks – taking place in Doha, Qatar – between US officials and Hamas, but said Israel had been consulted.
Ms Leavitt continued: “Dialogue and talking to people around the world to do what’s in the best interest of the American people, is something that the president has proven is what he believes is a good faith, effort to do what’s right for the American people.”
There are “American lives at stake,” she added.
Adam Boehler, Mr Trump’s pick to be special envoy for hostage affairs, participated in the direct talks with Hamas.
A spokesperson for Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Israel had “expressed to the United States its position regarding direct talks with Hamas”.
Hours later, Mr Trump warned Hamas to hand over Israeli hostages or “it’s over for you” – adding: “This is your last warning”.
Image: Hamas militants on the day of a hostage handover in Gaza in February. Pic: Reuters
On his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump wrote: “Release all of the hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered or it is over for you.
“Only sick and twisted people keep bodies and you are sick and twisted. I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say.”
Mr Trump met with freed Israeli hostages on Wednesday, something he referenced in his social media post, before adding: “This is your last warning. For the leadership of Hamas, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance.
“Also, to the people of Gaza, a beautiful future awaits, but not if you hold hostages. If you do, you are dead. Make a smart decision. Release the hostages now, or there will be hell to pay later.”
Israel estimates about 24 living hostages, including American citizen Edan Alexander, and the bodies of at least 35 others, are still believed to be in Gaza.
Image: Donald Trump with Benjamin Netanyahu in February. Pic: Reuters
The US has a long-held policy of not negotiating with terrorists – which it is breaking with these talks as Hamas has been designated a foreign terrorist organisation by the US government’s National Counterterrorism Center since 1997.
The discussions come as a fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire continues to hold, but its future is uncertain.
Image: Palestinians amid the rubble in the southern Gaza strip. Pic: Reuters
Mr Trump has signalled he has no intention of pushing the Israeli prime minister away from a return to combat if Hamas does not agree to terms of a new ceasefire proposal – which, Israel says, has been drafted by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.
The new plan would require Hamas to release half its remaining hostages – the group’s main bargaining chip – in exchange for a ceasefire extension and a promise to negotiate a lasting truce.
Donald Trump has admitted his tariffs on major trading partners will cause “a little disturbance” – as China said it was “ready” for “any type of war” with the US.
The US president made his comments in an address to Congress, hours after the levies on imports came into effect.
Producers in Mexico and Canada have been hit with a 25% tax on items they export to the US, while a 20% tariff has been applied to Chinese imports.
Image: Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The US president has admitted his tariffs will cause ‘a little disturbance’ – as China responds. Pic: Reuters/AP
Stock markets, which Mr Trump is said to pay close attention to, slid on the tariffs news.
Exporters in the affected countries as well as businesses in the US and economists have raised concerns about the potential price-raising impact of the tariffs.
Making imports more expensive will likely make goods more expensive and could push prices up across the board.
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6:35
Trump’s Congress speech unwrapped
Concern over threat to interest rates
A cycle of high inflation could lead to interest rates being higher for longer in the US, the world’s largest economy, which could dampen economic activity.
A slowed US economy would have global consequences but even without a hit to the States, there are fears of a global trade war – in which countries add their own trade barriers in the form of tariffs.
The Chinese embassy in the US posted on X: “If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”
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Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau said his country was launching its own WTO challenge and described the US tariffs as a “dumb thing to do”.
He also warned the move by the Trump administration would impact American workplaces and add to inflation in the US.
Addressing the American public, he said: “We don’t want this… but your government has chosen to do this to you.”
Canada has announced the imposition of 25% tariffs on US imports worth C$30bn (£16.3bn).
But US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick struck a different note on tariffs and on Monday said the president will “probably” announce a compromise with Canada and Mexico as early as Wednesday.
Donald Trump has said he “appreciates” President Zelenskyy’s renewed pledge to work with him on a peace deal – and that Russia has sent “strong signals” it’s also ready for a truce.
The US president made the comments during a marathon address to Congress in which he talked up his actions so far and set out priorities for the future.
“We have accomplished more in 43 days than most administrations accomplished in 4 years, 8 years – and we are just getting started,” the president said.
But it in a highly divided Congress, Democrats registered their dissent with stone faces, placards calling out “lies” and one member’s ejection.
Mr Trump said he’d received an “important letter” from the Ukrainian leader saying he would work under his leadership to reach a peace deal.
“The letter reads Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer,” Mr Trump said.
“I appreciate that he sent this letter. Just got it a little while ago,” he added.
The president told a packed House chamber that Moscow had also indicated that they were ready for peace.
He said: “Simultaneously, we’ve had serious discussions with Russiaand have received strong signals that they are ready for peace. Wouldn’t that be beautiful?”
Longest speech
However, the majority of Mr Trump’s speech in the Capitol in Washington DC focussed on domestic issues.
Image: Democrats held protest signs during the speech. Pic: Reuters
At one hour and 39 minute, it was the longest annual address a president has delivered to Congress, breaking Bill Clinton’s record of one hour and 28 minutes.
Mr Trump lauded his nascent second stint in the White House and said he’d taken “unrelenting action” that had already achieved more than some administrations manage in years.
The president began his speech by proclaiming “America is back!” – prompting enthusiastic chants of “USA”.
Mr Trump said “the American Dream is surging – bigger and better than ever before”.
However, his remarks were met with jeers from Democrats and the House speaker called on the serjeant-at-arms to eject representative Al Green for refusing to stay quiet. Mr Green had stood up and shouted at Mr Trump, gesturing toward the president with his cane.
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0:56
Congressman ejected during Trump speech
Other Democrats waved paddles with statements including “false” and “Musk steals”. Some wore blue and yellow in solidarity with Ukraine.
With vice president JD Vance sat behind him, Mr Trump reeled off a list of his actions since he started his second term in January.
Among others, he mentioned rolling back the Paris climate accords, removing the “tyranny” of diversity policies, leaving the World Health Organization and the naming of the ‘Gulf of America’.
“Our country will be woke no longer,” he declared.
There was also a special mention for Elon Musk’s government efficiency department, DOGE, which has controversially cut thousands of jobs already.
President Trump claimed the billionaire’s efforts were saving the country billions by cutting waste and fraud.
Image: Elon Musk stood to receive applause for his work with DOGE. Pic: Reuters
Mr Musk was there in person, unusually in a suit, and stood to acknowledge the applause from the mass of Republicans in the chamber.
“Thank you very much, we appreciate it,” Mr Trump told him.
He said the US had been “ripped off for decades by every country on earth” and that tariffs were also about “protecting the soul of our country”.
The president has claimed previously they are in response to the three countries not doing enough to halt the flow of powerful drugs such as fentanyl.
In response, China’s US embassy tweeted ominously: “If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”
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0:53
‘Whatever they tariff us, we will tariff them’
The president also said he would “make America affordable again” and that President Biden hadn’t done enough to control inflation.
“Joe Biden especially let the price of eggs get out of control – and we are working hard to get it back down. A major focus of our fight to defeat inflation is rapidly reducing the cost of energy,” he added.
Illegal immigration also took up a chunk of his record-breaking speech.
The president repeated his well-worn pledge to clamp down on people entering through the southern border and reverse what he called “insane open-border policies”.
To another burst of applause, he said he had designated some South America gangs as “terrorist” organisations.
Greenland and the Panama Canal also got a mention.
The president said America intended to reclaim the famous shipping passage – which it relinquished control over in 1999 – and repeated his ambition to own the vast Danish territory.
Image: First lady Melania Trump also got a warm welcome. Pic: Reuters
Image: Pic: Reuters
Addressing Greenlanders, he said: “We strongly support your right to determine your own future, and if you choose, we welcome you into the United States of America.”
“We need Greenland for national security and even international security,” he said. “And we’re working with everybody involved to try and get it… and I think we’re going to get it, one way or the other.”
Image: DJ Daniel was made a ‘Secret Service agent’. Pic: AP
First lady Melania Trump watched the speech from on high in the gallery, with guests also including the family of the firefighter killed during the assassination attempt last summer, and a man recently freed from a Russian jail.
There was also a heart-warming moment where a child recovering from brain cancer was summoned to stand up.
Wearing a police uniform, 13-year-old DJ Daniel was lifted into the air in disbelief by his dad as President Trump told him: “I am asking our new Secret Service director, Sean Curran, to officially make you an agent of the United States Secret Service. Thank you, DJ.”