America does exit polls differently to the UK – here’s how and why
There are two main differences between election coverage in the UK and the United States.
Last July, at 10pm, Sky News’ exit poll graphic predicted a Labour landslide and a massive defeat for the Conservatives.
Confirmation of this forecast was a long time coming since constituency results are only announced by local returning officers once all votes have been counted.
US election latest: Data reveals potentially decisive trends in two swing states
Americans do things differently and for good reason. Polling stations close much earlier in the east than they do in the west. When voting has hours to go in some states, they’ve already started counting elsewhere.
There is a “wait for it” moment when voting closes in west coast states and the broadcasters can reveal the national exit poll headline, but this won’t tell us the winner.
Instead, it will tell us the types of people who have voted for Harris or Trump and the issues that dominated the outcome.
So far, one-nil to the UK, I think. But, here comes the next bit.
Instead of postponing announcements about votes until every last one has been accounted for, each state then begins releasing figures as and when votes are being counted.
And they do so in such a way where we can compare this time with previously. Not for them declarations in sports halls with dodgy microphones but rather running tallies for precincts (think our local council wards) and counties (ranging from tiny to huge).
It’s these data that US broadcasters such as NBC will use to “call” each state’s vote for president. The television networks are big players in the US election drama.
Early voting in Henderson, Nevada, on 19 October. Pic: AP
Over 160 million votes will be cast in the election, more than five times the number cast in our general election last July.
And while the outcome of our election was in no doubt once the broadcasters’ exit poll revealed Labour had won a landslide majority, that will be far from the case in the battle for the presidency.
As in the UK, a consortium of US broadcasters, comprising NBC, ABC, CBS and CNN, form the national election pool.
This commissions the consumer research company, Edison Research, to survey voters in over 600 polling places as people exit their polling station.
The survey also includes telephone interviews with people casting a ballot before 5 November. Once completed, the US exit poll will have obtained responses from over 20,000 voters, a similar number that were collected for the general election.
Two surveys of voters, therefore, but now important differences in their purpose become clear.
The UK version is entirely focussed on predicting the distribution of seats among the competing parties and, thereby, the winner and its likely House of Commons majority. Over recent elections it has proved pretty good at achieving this task.
Pic: AP
US pollsters are more interested in campaign issues that mattered to voters. Pic: AP
By contrast, the US version is much less concerned about predicting the winner (and there are very good reasons for taking this approach) and more interested in the campaign issues that mattered to voters, how they viewed the candidates and what factors motivated them to make their choices.
The survey identifies key demographic characteristics for each respondent – men or women, age, ethnic heritage, and educational qualifications.
Combined with questions relating to their choice for president this time around, their usual partisan preference, Democrat, Republican or none of the above, the survey data enables a considered and detailed analysis of what kinds of voters made what kinds of choices and their reasons for doing so.
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How will America vote on election day?
Broadcast organisations, including Sky News, will use the 2024 exit poll to highlight differences between men and women voters in relation to the abortion issue.
The poll will also show how the economy ranked among voters and whether Donald Trump’s stance on low taxation gained or lost him votes among different social groups. Did Kamala Harris’s association with the Biden administration and the challenges of illegal immigration prove to be a positive or a negative in her bid for the White House?
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All very interesting, but aren’t we all tuning in to see who’s won? While the US exit poll can, in theory, be used for this purpose it is unwise to do so in what is proving to be an extremely close race.
Sky’s tracker of national polls shows the Democrat blue line and the Republican red line moving ever closer together but with Harris currently marginally ahead. But even if she loses the national vote, the polls would still be within the margin of error.
Of course, she could yet win more votes than Trump and still lose the election, as Hillary Clinton discovered when she lost to him in 2016. Winning votes is necessary, but it’s where those votes are and the available number of electoral college votes that matters the most.
Trump beat Clinton because his votes were better distributed than hers. History could be repeated.
Releasing precinct-level voting numbers as counting progresses is essential to US election coverage. The national election pool employs over a thousand researchers to collect votes from each of the 50 states.
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Additionally, NBC News will augment these figures with more detailed analysis prior to making its call for each state and the electoral college votes for Harris or Trump. The first to reach 270 college votes wins.
Professor John Lapinsky of Pennsylvania University leads NBC’s decision desk.
Although the broadcasters have pooled resources to bring us the exit poll, each will independently analyse the actual voting figures as they become available.
Lapinsky and his team on behalf of NBC will call the state for either Harris or Trump only when they are satisfied that the leading candidate’s vote is sufficiently large that he or she cannot be overtaken.
This a big moment for each broadcaster, especially when the race is likely to be close and where social media may be playing a significant role in stoking accusations and counter-accusations of a fraudulent election.
With so much at stake, these decisions will take time and patience.
Our July election was done and dusted in time for the breakfast bulletins. It could be days of counting, recounting and legal appeals before we know the winner of the 2024 presidential election.
For so long, the Epstein story has cast them in a cameo role.
Everyday coverage of the scandal churns through the politics and process of it all, reducing their suffering to a passing reference.
Not anymore.
Not on a morning when they gathered on Capitol Hill, survivors of Epstein‘s abuse, strengthened by shared experience and a resolve to address it.
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Epstein survivors call for release of all files
In a news conference that lasted over an hour, they brought an authenticity that only they could.
There was vivid recollection of the abuse they endured and a certainty in the justice they seek.
They had the safety of each other – adults now, with the horrors of youth at a distance, though never far away.
It was an emotional gathering on Capitol Hill, attended by survivors, politicians and several hundred members of the public who turned up in support.
Banners read “Release the files”, “Listen to the victims” and “Even your MAGA base demands Epstein files”.
Haley Robson was one of several Epstein survivors who spoke. Pic: AP
A startling spectacle
That last statement isn’t lost on Donald Trump. As if for emphasis, one of the speakers was the ultra-loyal House representative Marjorie Taylor Greene – they don’t make them more MAGA.
In a spectacle, startling to politics-watchers in this town, she stood side by side with Democrat congressmen to demand the Epstein files be released.
It reflects a discontent spread through Donald Trump’s support base.
He is the man who once counted Jeffrey Epstein as a friend and who has said he’d release the files, only to reverse course.
Read more:
Partial release of Epstein files feeds cover-up claims
Explainer: Trump, Epstein and the MAGA controversy
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‘It’s a Democrat hoax’ – Trump on Epstein files
Trump’s vulnerability
The Epstein files is the slow-burner that won’t go out, a story that exposes Trump’s vulnerability.
Just how vulnerable can be measured on Congress, where politicians need only a couple of Republicans to back legislation demanding full publication.
It bears the shape of a loyalty test to the president and the dynamics of that have changed with the survivors stepping forward.
One by one, they presented a thunderous reminder of the people and the moral imperative at the heart of the Jeffrey Epstein saga.
It’s political, sure, but it’s about much more – that, we saw on Capitol Hill.
US
‘Ketamine Queen’ Jasveen Sangha pleads guilty to supplying fatal dose that killed Friends star Matthew Perry
A woman known as the “Ketamine Queen” has officially pleaded guilty to selling Friends star Matthew Perry the drug that killed him.
Jasveen Sangha initially denied the charges but agreed to change her plea in a signed statement in August, just a few weeks before she had been due to stand trial.
The 42-year-old , a dual citizen of the US and the UK, has now appeared in a federal court in Los Angeles to plead guilty to five charges, including supplying the ketamine that led to Perry‘s death.
She faces up to 65 years in prison after admitting one count of maintaining a drug-involved premises, three counts of distribution of ketamine, and one count of distribution of ketamine resulting in death.
Prosecutors agreed to drop three other counts related to the distribution of ketamine, and one count of distribution of methamphetamine that was unrelated to the Perry case.
In a brief statement when the plea deal was announced, her lawyer Mark Geragos said she was “taking responsibility for her actions”.
The judge is not bound to follow any terms of the plea agreement, but prosecutors have said they will ask for less than the maximum possible sentence.
Perry died aged 54 in October 2023. He had struggled with addiction for years, but released a memoir a year before his death during a period of being clean.
He had been using ketamine through his regular doctor as a legal, but off-label, treatment for depression, but in the weeks before his death had also started to seek more of the drug illegally.
Perry bought large amounts of ketamine from Sangha, including 25 vials for $6,000 (£4,458) in cash four days before his death, prosecutors said.
Read more:
The Hollywood drugs network exposed by Perry’s death
Obituary: The one who made everyone laugh
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What Perry’s death says about Hollywood
Sangha, described by prosecutors as the “Ketamine Queen of North Hollywood”, is now the fifth and final person to plead guilty to charges connected to the supply of drugs to the Friends star.
The actor’s live-in assistant Kenneth Iwamasa, an acquaintance Erik Fleming, and a physician, Mark Chavez, all agreed to plead guilty when the charges were announced in August 2024.
Another doctor, Salvador Plasencia, initially pleaded not guilty and had been due to face trial alongside Sangha, but changed his plea in July.
Sangha and Plasencia had been the primary targets of the investigation.
The three other defendants: Chavez, Iwamasa and Fleming pleaded guilty in exchange for their co-operation, which included statements implicating Sangha and Plasencia.
Perry had bought ketamine from Sangha after he was led to her by Fleming, prosecutors said.
On the day of Perry’s death, Sangha told Fleming they should delete all the messages they had sent each other, according to Sangha’s indictment.
Sangha is due to be sentenced on 10 December.
The other four defendants are also still awaiting sentencing.
Perry was one of the biggest stars of his generation as Chandler Bing in Friends – which ran on NBC between 1994 and 2004.
He starred alongside Jennifer Aniston, Courteney Cox, Lisa Kudrow, Matt LeBlanc and David Schwimmer for all 10 seasons of the show.
The Friends stars were among around 20 mourners who attended his funeral in November 2023, according to TMZ.
The deployment of National Guard soldiers on to the streets of LA by Donald Trump was always deeply controversial – and now it has been deemed illegal, too, by a federal judge.
In late spring in Los Angeles, I observed as peaceful protests against immigration raids turned confrontational.
I watched as Waymos – self-driving cars – were set alight and people waving flags shut down one of the city’s busiest freeways. I saw government buildings spray-painted with anti-government sentiment and expletives. Some people even threw bottles at police officers in riot gear.
In exchange, I saw law enforcement deploy “flash bang” crowd control devices and fire rubber bullets into crowds, indiscriminately, on occasion.
Mounted Los Angeles police officers disperse protesters earlier this summer. Pic: San Francisco Chronicle/AP
A person reacts to non-lethal munitions shot in Los Angeles.
Pic: Reuters
It was chaotic at times, violent, even, in a corner of the downtown area of the city. But I didn’t witness anything that suggested police were on the brink of being overcome by rioters. I didn’t see anything that I believe justified the deployment of 4,000 National Guard troops and 700 marines to the heart of America’s second-biggest city.
But Trump sent them in anyway, against the wishes of the local government. LA mayor Karen Bass condemned the deployment as an act of political theatre and said it risked stoking tensions.
The language Trump used was, arguably, inflammatory, too. He described LA as an “invaded” and “occupied city”. He spoke of “a full-blown assault on peace”, carried out by “rioters bearing foreign flags with the aim of continuing a foreign invasion of our country”.
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Trump: ‘We will liberate Los Angeles’
It didn’t reflect reality. The size of the protests were modest, several thousand people marching through a handful of streets in downtown LA, a city which spans 500 square miles and has a population of almost four million.
The majority of the soldiers simply stood guard outside government buildings, often looking bored. Some of them are still here, with nothing to do. Now a judge has ruled that the operation was illegal.
US District Judge Charles Breyer said the Trump administration “used armed soldiers (whose identity was often obscured by protective armour) and military vehicles to set up protective perimeters and traffic blockades, engage in crowd control, and otherwise demonstrate a military presence in and around Los Angeles”.
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Marines head to Los Angeles
In a scathing judgement, he effectively accused the White House of turning National Guard soldiers and marines into a “national police force.”
That breaches a law from 1878, barring the use of soldiers for civilian law enforcement activities.
It is a blow to what some view as the president’s ambition to federalise Democrat-run cities and deploy the National Guard in other states around the country. He had threatened to send troops to Chicago as part of an initiative he says is cracking down on crime, widening the use of National Guard troops, as seen on the streets of Washington DC.
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The fightback against immigration raids in LA
But since this judge ruled that the deployment of National Guard and marines to LA in June was unlawful in the way it unfolded, Trump may have to be inventive with his rationale for sending soldiers into other US cities in the future.
This legal judgement, though, is being appealed and may well be overturned. Either way, it is unlikely to stem the president’s ambition to act as national police chief.
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