America does exit polls differently to the UK – here’s how and why

Published

9 months ago

November 2, 2024

admin

There are two main differences between election coverage in the UK and the United States.

Last July, at 10pm, Sky News’ exit poll graphic predicted a Labour landslide and a massive defeat for the Conservatives.

Confirmation of this forecast was a long time coming since constituency results are only announced by local returning officers once all votes have been counted.

US election latest: Data reveals potentially decisive trends in two swing states

Americans do things differently and for good reason. Polling stations close much earlier in the east than they do in the west. When voting has hours to go in some states, they’ve already started counting elsewhere.

There is a “wait for it” moment when voting closes in west coast states and the broadcasters can reveal the national exit poll headline, but this won’t tell us the winner.

Instead, it will tell us the types of people who have voted for Harris or Trump and the issues that dominated the outcome.

So far, one-nil to the UK, I think. But, here comes the next bit.

Instead of postponing announcements about votes until every last one has been accounted for, each state then begins releasing figures as and when votes are being counted.

And they do so in such a way where we can compare this time with previously. Not for them declarations in sports halls with dodgy microphones but rather running tallies for precincts (think our local council wards) and counties (ranging from tiny to huge).

It’s these data that US broadcasters such as NBC will use to “call” each state’s vote for president. The television networks are big players in the US election drama.

Over 160 million votes will be cast in the election, more than five times the number cast in our general election last July.

And while the outcome of our election was in no doubt once the broadcasters’ exit poll revealed Labour had won a landslide majority, that will be far from the case in the battle for the presidency.

As in the UK, a consortium of US broadcasters, comprising NBC, ABC, CBS and CNN, form the national election pool.

This commissions the consumer research company, Edison Research, to survey voters in over 600 polling places as people exit their polling station.

The survey also includes telephone interviews with people casting a ballot before 5 November. Once completed, the US exit poll will have obtained responses from over 20,000 voters, a similar number that were collected for the general election.

Two surveys of voters, therefore, but now important differences in their purpose become clear.

The UK version is entirely focussed on predicting the distribution of seats among the competing parties and, thereby, the winner and its likely House of Commons majority. Over recent elections it has proved pretty good at achieving this task.

By contrast, the US version is much less concerned about predicting the winner (and there are very good reasons for taking this approach) and more interested in the campaign issues that mattered to voters, how they viewed the candidates and what factors motivated them to make their choices.

The survey identifies key demographic characteristics for each respondent – men or women, age, ethnic heritage, and educational qualifications.

Combined with questions relating to their choice for president this time around, their usual partisan preference, Democrat, Republican or none of the above, the survey data enables a considered and detailed analysis of what kinds of voters made what kinds of choices and their reasons for doing so.

Broadcast organisations, including Sky News, will use the 2024 exit poll to highlight differences between men and women voters in relation to the abortion issue.

The poll will also show how the economy ranked among voters and whether Donald Trump’s stance on low taxation gained or lost him votes among different social groups. Did Kamala Harris’s association with the Biden administration and the challenges of illegal immigration prove to be a positive or a negative in her bid for the White House?

👉 Tap here to follow the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts 👈

All very interesting, but aren’t we all tuning in to see who’s won? While the US exit poll can, in theory, be used for this purpose it is unwise to do so in what is proving to be an extremely close race.

Sky’s tracker of national polls shows the Democrat blue line and the Republican red line moving ever closer together but with Harris currently marginally ahead. But even if she loses the national vote, the polls would still be within the margin of error.

Of course, she could yet win more votes than Trump and still lose the election, as Hillary Clinton discovered when she lost to him in 2016. Winning votes is necessary, but it’s where those votes are and the available number of electoral college votes that matters the most.

Trump beat Clinton because his votes were better distributed than hers. History could be repeated.

Releasing precinct-level voting numbers as counting progresses is essential to US election coverage. The national election pool employs over a thousand researchers to collect votes from each of the 50 states.

Additionally, NBC News will augment these figures with more detailed analysis prior to making its call for each state and the electoral college votes for Harris or Trump. The first to reach 270 college votes wins.

Professor John Lapinsky of Pennsylvania University leads NBC’s decision desk.

Although the broadcasters have pooled resources to bring us the exit poll, each will independently analyse the actual voting figures as they become available.

Lapinsky and his team on behalf of NBC will call the state for either Harris or Trump only when they are satisfied that the leading candidate’s vote is sufficiently large that he or she cannot be overtaken.

This a big moment for each broadcaster, especially when the race is likely to be close and where social media may be playing a significant role in stoking accusations and counter-accusations of a fraudulent election.

With so much at stake, these decisions will take time and patience.

Our July election was done and dusted in time for the breakfast bulletins. It could be days of counting, recounting and legal appeals before we know the winner of the 2024 presidential election.

US

Ghislaine Maxwell could use ‘government misconduct’ to challenge imprisonment

Published

6 hours ago

July 16, 2025

admin

Ghislaine Maxwell could use 'government misconduct' to challenge imprisonment

Disgraced British socialite Ghislaine Maxwell could use “government misconduct” to challenge her imprisonment, her family has claimed.

The 63-year-old, who was jailed in 2022 for luring young girls to massage rooms for Jeffrey Epstein to abuse, is currently serving a 20-year prison sentence.

Maxwell’s family have frequently claimed she “did not receive a fair trial”, but legal appeals against her sex trafficking convictions have been rejected by the courts.

The latest challenge from the Maxwell family comes as President Donald Trump faces questions over whether or not he will order the release of the so-called Epstein “client list”, following a backlash from Republican loyalists who have called for any list to be made public.

Judges previously dismissed arguments from Maxwell’s lawyers that she “should never have been prosecuted” because of a “weird” agreement drafted more than 15 years ago.

The family argue that Maxwell should have been protected under an agreement Epstein had entered with the US Department of Justice in 2007, which agreed not to prosecute any of his co-conspirators.

During her trial in 2021, Maxwell was described as “dangerous” by prosecutors, who told jurors about how she would entice vulnerable girls to go to Epstein’s properties for him to sexually abuse.

In a statement, her family said: “Our sister Ghislaine did not receive a fair trial.

“Her legal team continues to fight her case in the courts and will file its reply in short order to the government’s opposition in the US Supreme Court.”

David Oscar Markus, one of her lawyers, said in the statement released by her family: “I’d be surprised if President Trump knew his lawyers were asking the Supreme Court to let the government break a deal.

“He’s the ultimate dealmaker and I’m sure he’d agree that when the United States gives its word, it should keep it.

“With all the talk about who’s being prosecuted and who isn’t, it’s especially unfair that Ghislaine Maxwell remains in prison based on a promise the US government made and broke.’

“These are sentiments with which we profoundly concur.”

Epstein, 66, was found dead in his cell at a Manhattan federal jail in August 2019 as he awaited trial on sex trafficking charges. His death was ruled a suicide.

US

James Craig: Dentist in Colorado poisoned wife’s protein shakes with cyanide, murder trial hears

Published

15 hours ago

July 16, 2025

admin

James Craig: Dentist in Colorado poisoned wife's protein shakes with cyanide, murder trial hears

The trial of a dentist accused of murdering his wife by poisoning her protein shakes has begun in the US state of Colorado.

James Craig denies using cyanide and tetrahydrozoline, an ingredient in over-the-counter eye drops, to kill Angela Craig in a suburb of Denver.

During the trial’s opening statements on Tuesday, prosecutors claimed the 47-year-old was having an affair with another dentist, had financial difficulties and may have been motivated by the payout from his wife’s life insurance.

Assistant District Attorney Ryan Brackley told the jury at Arapahoe District Court that the 43-year-old victim – who had six children with her husband – had been suffering worsening symptoms including dizziness, vomiting and fainting.

She died in March 2023 during her third trip to the hospital that month.

Mr Brackley accused Craig of poisoning her protein shakes – then giving his wife a final dose of poison while she was in hospital, and said: “He went in that [hospital] room to murder her, to deliberately and intentionally end her life with a fatal dose of cyanide … She spends the next three days dying.”

Craig, who shook his head at times during the prosecution’s opening statement, has pleaded not guilty to several charges, including first-degree murder, solicitation to commit murder and solicitation to commit perjury.

Prosecutors said Craig had tried to make it appear his wife of 23 years had killed herself. His internet history showed he had searched for “how to make a murder look like a heart attack” and “is arsenic detectable in an autopsy”.

In an argument, captured on home surveillance video, his wife also accused him of suggesting to hospital staff that she was suicidal.

After Craig’s arrest in 2023, prosecutors alleged that he had offered a fellow prison inmate $20,000 (£14,993) to kill the case’s lead investigator and offered someone else $20,000 to find people to falsely testify that Angela Craig planned to die by suicide.

Craig’s attorney, Ashley Whitham, told the jury to consider the credibility of those witnesses, calling some “jailhouse snitches”.

Ms Whitham argued that the evidence didn’t show that he poisoned her, instead seeming to suggest she may have taken her own life.

She described Angela Craig as “broken”, partly by Craig’s infidelity and her desire to stay married, since they were part of The Church of Jesus Christ and Latter-day Saints.

Hospital staff had said Craig had been caring and “doting” while Angela Craig was in the hospital, said Whitham.

The defence argued prosecutors had overdramatised Craig’s financial problems and dismissed the prosecution’s suggestion that Craig was motivated to kill because of an affair he was having with a fellow dentist from Texas.

“That’s simply not the case,” Whitham said, adding that Craig had many affairs over the years that his wife knew about. “He was candid with Angela that he had been cheating.”

The trial continues.

US

Trump to ‘refine trade deal’ with UK during Scotland trip

Published

21 hours ago

July 16, 2025

admin

Trump to 'refine trade deal' with UK during Scotland trip

Donald Trump has said he will “refine the trade deal” with the UK during his private trip to Scotland later this month.

The US president told reporters outside the White House on Tuesday that he will meet with Sir Keir Starmer “probably in Aberdeen”.

Politics latest: Reeves committed to ‘non-negotiable’ fiscal rules

Mr Trump is expected to travel to Scotland in the coming weeks to visit his golf courses ahead of an official state visit in September.

“We’re going to be meeting with the British prime minister, very respectful, and we are going to have a meeting with him, probably in Aberdeen, and we’re going to do a lot of different things.

“We’re going to also refine the trade deal that we’ve made.

“So we’ll be meeting mostly […] at probably one of my properties, or maybe not, depending on what happens, but we’ll be in Aberdeen, in Scotland, meeting with the prime minister.”

The UK and US signed a trade deal earlier this year that reduced car and aerospace tariffs, but questions have remained about a promise from Washington to slash steel tariffs.

In May, the White House said it would exempt the UK from plans for a 25% tariff on global steel imports but that is yet to be ratified and the levy has since been doubled on all other countries.

Mr Trump had insisted that unless Britain could finalise the details of a metals trade deal with the US by 9 July, when wider “Liberation Day” tariff pauses were expected to expire, he would slap the UK with a 50% rate as well.

However that pause was extended until 1 August, with the US president saying nations would instead get letters informing them of his plans.

As Sky News’ economics and data editor Ed Conway has reported, the metals deal has floundered on two key issues, including that while the government has taken control of British Steel, the company itself still legally has Chinese owners.

Downing Street is still hoping it can secure 0% tariffs on steel.

👉 Follow Trump100 on your podcast app 👈

On Tuesday, a Downing Street spokesperson played down the significance of the meeting in Scotland, stressing it was a private trip so it “will not be a formal bilateral”.

Since taking office in January, Mr Trump has imposed tariffs on countries across the world in a bid to boost domestic production and address trade deficits.

As well as sector specific tariffs, there is a baseline tariff of 10% for most other imports, though some countries face higher rates.

The UK was the first to hash out a deal on exemptions after a successful charm offensive by Sir Keir.

Mr Trump has praised the PM, telling the BBC earlier on Tuesday: “I really like the prime minister a lot, even though he’s a liberal.”

There are also plans for Scottish First Minister John Swinney to meet Mr Trump during his trip.

It will be followed by the official state visit between 17-19 September, when Mr Trump will be hosted by the King and Queen at Windsor Castle and accompanied by his wife Melania.

It will be Mr Trump’s second state visit to the UK, having previously been hosted during his first term in 2019.