Robert Jenrick or Kemi Badenoch to be crowned Tory leader today – but whoever wins contest faces daunting task

Published

1 year ago

November 2, 2024

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The next leader of the Conservative party will be announced today, following a run-off between Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick.

The winner will replace Rishi Sunak as the leader of the opposition, after he led the party to a crushing election defeat in July, losing almost two thirds of its MPs.

His successor faces the daunting task of rebuilding the Tory party after years of division, scandal and economic turbulence, which saw Labour eject them from power by a landslide.

Politics latest: Budget given ‘clean bill of health’

Voting by tens of thousands of party members, who need to have joined at least 90 days ago, closed on Thursday. Both candidates have claimed the result will be close.

The Conservatives do not disclose how many members the party has, but the figure was about 172,000 in 2022, and research suggests they are disproportionately affluent, older white men.

Both candidates are seen as on the party’s right wing. Kemi Badenoch, 44, is the former trade secretary, who was born in London to middle-class Nigerian parents but spent most of her childhood in Lagos.

After moving back to the UK aged 16, she stayed with a family friend while taking her A-levels, and has spoken of her time working at McDonald’s as a teenager.

Having studied computer science at Sussex University, she then worked as a software engineer before entering London politics and becoming MP for Saffron Walden in Essex in 2017.

Ms Badenoch prides herself on being outspoken and has said the Conservatives lost because they “talked right and governed left”. But her critics paint her as abrasive and prone to misspeaking.

At the Conservative Party conference, a crucial staging post in the contest, she began her speech which followed three other male candidates by saying: “Nice speeches, boys, but I think you all know I’m the one everyone’s been waiting for.”

Her rival Robert Jenrick, 42, has been on a political journey. Elected as a Cameroon Conservative in 2014, he was one of the rising star ministers who swung behind Boris Johnson as prime minister and was later a vocal supporter of Rishi Sunak.

But he resigned as immigration minister in December 2023, claiming Sunak’s government was breaking its promises to cut immigration.

The MP for Newark in Nottinghamshire says he had a “working-class” upbringing in Wolverhampton. He read history at Cambridge University and worked at Christie’s auctioneers before winning a by-election.

After a long ministerial career where he was seen as mild-mannered, he is said to have been “radicalised” by his time at the Home Office and has focused his campaign on a promise to slash immigration and leave the European Convention on Human Rights to “stand for our nation and our culture, our identity and our way of life”.

He has put forward more policies than his rival, but attracted criticism for some of his claims – including that Britain’s former colonies owe the Empire a “debt of gratitude”.

A survey of party members by the website Conservative Home last week put Kemi Badenoch in the lead by 55 points to Mr Jenrick’s 31 with polls still open.

James Cleverly, the shadow home secretary and seen as a more centrist candidate was knocked out of the race last month. One of his supporters, the Conservative peer and former Scotland leader Ruth Davidson, has predicted neither Mr Jenrick nor Ms Badenoch will stay as leader until the next general election.

She told the Sky News Electoral Dysfunction podcast: “I’ve now voted for Robert Jenrick, who I don’t think will win. I struggle to believe that the person that’s the next leader of the Tory party is going to take us into the next election in five years’ time and I struggle to believe that they’re going to leave the leadership at a time of their own choosing.”

Henry Hill, deputy editor of ConHome, said the contest which Tory officials decided would take almost three months, has not led to enough scrutiny – because the MP rounds of voting took so long.

“We know much less [about them] than I think we should”, he said. “The problem with this contest is the party decided to go really long, but at the same time, they confined the membership vote – with just the final two – to just three weeks, and ballots dropped halfway through that process.

“We had months and months with loads of candidates in the race, but also that was the MP rounds and you’d think the MPs will have a chance to get to know these people already. For the actual choice the members are going to be making, there has been barely any time to scrutinise that.

He added: “I think the party remembers Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak taking weeks to take lumps out of each other in 2022 and wanted to avoid that. But it means the two campaigns haven’t really been attacking each other and that tends to be how you expose people’s weaknesses.”

After 14 years in government under five prime ministers, it is not since David Cameron in 2005 that the party has elected a leader to go into opposition – with a long road until the next general election.

Veteran ex-MP Graham Brady, who served as chair of the backbench 1922 committee, told Sky News that the position was more hopeful than after the 1997 landslide.

He said: “The biggest challenge for a leader of the opposition in these circumstances is just to be heard, to be noticed. I came into the House of Commons in 1997 at the time of that huge Blair landslide.

“We worked very, very hard in opposition during that parliament, and at the next general election [in 2001], we made a net gain of one seat.

“Now, there is a huge difference between now and 1997. The Blair government remained very popular and Tony Blair personally remained very popular through that whole parliament and beyond. And in 100 days or so, Keir Starmer has already fallen way behind.

“So I think we’ve got a great opportunity. I don’t think we’re up against an insuperable challenge, but it’s a big challenge.”

Kate Fall, now Baroness Fall, worked with Lord Cameron in opposition and later in Downing Street when he was prime minister in the coalition government. She said the next leader needed to keep the party “united and disciplined”.

“The first thing is to think about why we lost. The second thing is what do we have to say? Then they need to be agile, they need to be reactive, but pick their fight, not fight over everything. They also need to get out and about,” she said.

Lord Cameron travelled around the country holding question and answer sessions called Cameron Direct. “When you’re prime minister, you can’t do that as much as you like. But as leader of the opposition you can get out, talk to people, we thought it was very trendy to have a podcast and so on.”

She says this week’s budget gives the next leader “an ideological divide” to get into, but warns that the next leader must not risk alienating former Tories who switched to Labour and the Lib Dems.

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The leader of the opposition will cut their teeth at weekly Prime Minister’s Questions sessions opposite Sir Keir Starmer and respond to set piece events such as the budget.

They will need to get the party’s campaign machine ready for the local elections in England in May 2025, Scottish elections in 2026 and the next general election expected in 2029.

Politics

Crypto czar David Sacks argues AI threat is Orwellian, not Terminator

Published

4 hours ago

November 4, 2025

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Crypto czar David Sacks argues AI threat is Orwellian, not Terminator

David Sacks warns that the real threat AI poses is when it is used for government surveillance and information control.

Politics

Starmer and Reeves hint at tax rises to come ahead of unusual pre-budget speech today

Published

8 hours ago

November 4, 2025

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Starmer and Reeves hint at tax rises to come ahead of unusual pre-budget speech today

Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have hinted at tax rises to come when the chancellor delivers the budget later this month.

In a Downing Street speech this morning, Ms Reeves will address “speculation” that an increase in income tax will be announced during the highly-anticipated statement on 26 November.

Politics Hub: Follow chancellor’s speech live

Sky News political editor Beth Rigby said it was “highly unusual” for the chancellor to make such a speech, but the Treasury believes she must “try to prepare the ground and make the argument for another big tax-raising budget”.

“I will make the choices necessary to deliver strong foundations for our economy – for this year, and years to come,” Ms Reeves will say.

Last night, Sir Keir gave Labour MPs a taste of what’s to come by warning of the need for “tough but fair” decisions.

Speaking at a party meeting in Westminster, he said the budget “takes place against a difficult economic backdrop”.

“It’s becoming clearer the long-term impact of Tory austerity, their botched Brexit deal and the pandemic on Britain’s productivity is worse than even we feared,” the prime minister said.

“Faced with that, we will make the tough but fair decisions to renew our country and build it for the long term.”

Starmer and Reeves know how hard this is going to be

I don’t need to tell you how difficult and contested this is going to be.

Only a year ago, the chancellor unveiled the biggest tax-raising budget since 1993 and said it was a “once in a parliament event”.

MPs will be fearing a massive backlash should manifesto promises on not raising income tax (and VAT and national insurance) for working people be broken.

Government figures know how hard it’s going to be but argue the chancellor has to level with the public about the hard choices ahead and what is driving her decision-making.

It comes after Sir Keir refused to confirm at Prime Minister’s Questions last week that the budget would honour his party’s manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT.

Having raised taxes in last year’s budget, notably national insurance on employers, Ms Reeves has also previously promised not to “come back for more” during this parliament.

The PM and chancellor’s warnings come after reports suggested the Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to downgrade its productivity growth forecast for the UK by about 0.3 percentage points.

That would leave Ms Reeves with a larger than expected fiscal black hole to fill, possibly up to £30bn.

She is said to be considering a proposal from The Resolution Foundation, a left-leaning thinktank close to the government, to raise income tax by 2p but cut national insurance by the same amount.

The thinktank, which used to be headed by Torsten Bell, a Labour MP who is now a key aide to Ms Reeves and a pensions minister, said the move would raise vital cash while protecting working people.

Reeves to prioritise NHS and cost of living

Giving a further flavour of what to expect, Ms Reeves will this morning vow to make “important choices that will shape our economy for years to come”.

“It is important that people understand the circumstances we are facing, the principles guiding my choices – and why I believe they will be the right choices for the country,” she will add.

Ms Reeves will say her priorities are cutting national debt, easing the cost of living and protecting the NHS.

“It will be a budget led by this government’s values,” she’s set to say.

“Of fairness and opportunity and focused squarely on the priorities of the British people: protecting our NHS, reducing our national debt and improving the cost of living.”

Politics

‘Vile and dangerous’ strangulation pornography to be banned

Published

8 hours ago

November 4, 2025

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'Vile and dangerous' strangulation pornography to be banned

Strangulation pornography will be banned following a review which found such images have helped to establish it as a sexual norm.

The possession and publication of images depicting strangulation and suffocation will be criminalised under the Crime and Policing Bill, which is currently making its way through parliament.

Non-fatal strangulation is already an offence in its own right, but it is not currently illegal to show it online.

Conservative peer Baroness Bertin warned earlier this year that there has been a “total absence of government scrutiny” of the pornography industry.

Her independent review, published in February, referred to worrying anecdotal evidence from teachers about students asking how to choke girls during sex.

People acting out choking in their sex lives “may face devastating consequences”, she said in the review.

On Monday, the government confirmed it was putting forward amendments to the Crime and Policing Bill, which is due to come back before peers in the House of Lords for further scrutiny next week.

As well as making strangulation or suffocation in pornography illegal, duties will be placed on online platforms to stop the spread of such images, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) said.

Another amendment will extend the time limit for victims of intimate image abuse, which can include so-called “revenge porn”, to come forward to report such crimes.

Currently, victims have six months to do so, but this will be extended to three years.

Victims minister Alex Davies-Jones said the government “will not stand by while women are violated online and victimised by violent pornography which is allowed to normalise harm”.

She added: “We are sending a strong message that dangerous and sexist behaviour will not be tolerated.”

Of strangulation pornography, Technology Secretary Liz Kendall said: “Viewing and sharing this kind of material online is not only deeply distressing, it is vile and dangerous. Those who post or promote such content are contributing to a culture of violence and abuse that has no place in our society.

“We’re also holding tech companies to account and making sure they stop this content before it can spread. We are determined to make sure women and girls can go online without fear of violence or exploitation.”

The government said if the amendments were accepted, possession or publication of strangulation or suffocation in pornography would become a priority offence under the Online Safety Act.

Technology firms would be legally required to take steps to stop such violent content reaching internet users, rather than simply waiting for it to be reported.

The government suggested this could be done through moderation tools, stricter content policies or automated systems being used to detect and hide images.

The British Board of Film Classification (BBFC) welcomed the planned changes, but said they must “mark the beginning of broader reform to ensure parity between online and offline content standards”.

Its chief executive David Austin said: “Harmful depictions of non-consensual, violent and abusive activity continue to be readily accessible to UK users.”

The BBFC said it stands ready to take on “the formal role of auditing online pornography”, which would be “a natural extension of the role we have carried out offline for decades”.

Bernie Ryan, chief executive of the Institute For Addressing Strangulation, welcomed the proposed ban, saying the “serious risks posed by unregulated online content, especially to children and young people” must be recognised.

She added: “Strangulation is a serious form of violence, often used in domestic abuse to control, silence or terrify.

“When it’s portrayed in pornography, particularly without context, it can send confusing and harmful messages to young people about what is normal or acceptable in intimate relationships. Our research shows there is no safe way to strangle.”