Best of Week 10: Ohio State’s erratic win, Georgia survives and Pavia-Vandy dominance
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David Hale, ESPN Staff Writer
In a season littered with unlikely twists, in a sport defined of late by overwhelming change, it’s nice to know some things remain as steadfastly certain as the morning sunrise.
Well, unless you’re a Penn State fan.
On the surface, we had a top-five showdown of Big Ten powers to headline Week 10, but it hardly felt like the Penn State-Ohio State matchups of old. This is, of course, a new-look Big Ten, and Ohio State had already suffered the consequences of expansion three weeks ago in a narrow loss to Oregon, as Will Howard slid too late and the clock ran out on any comeback bid. The Buckeyes arrived in Happy Valley as a case study in modern college football economics, too, sporting a roster valued at roughly the gross domestic product of Luxembourg. Penn State, too, was billed as a new-look version of its former self, one bolstered by a more creative offense led by new coordinator and Dairy Queen enthusiast Andy Kotelnicki, who promised to avoid the same malaise that had dogged the program in so many prior top-10 matchups and offer, instead, the occasional open receiver.
And yet, what we got — an erratic, exhilarating, physical 20-13 Ohio State win — looked just like old times, for better and for worse.
Never mind that the offensive line was patched together with duct tape and popsicle sticks, like some sort of HGTV rehab project property owners can’t wait to flip. The front still won every consequential battle in the trenches, turning third-and-short into a near automatic first down again and again, devouring clock like it was Halloween candy, including an 11-play drive that began at the Buckeyes’ 1 and soaked up the final 5:13 and included two critical third-and-short conversions. The defense, meanwhile, utterly flummoxed Penn State yet again, taking away any threat of a downfield attack and stonewalling the Nittany Lions at the goal line twice, including on four straight plays from inside the 3 late in the fourth quarter.
When Penn State hired Kotelnicki this offseason, it was with the expressed purpose of scripting a new game plan for exactly this moment. Again and again under James Franklin, the Lions have come up short against the top teams in the Big Ten, including, now, a 1-10 record against Ohio State. In Greek mythology, Sisyphus is punished by the gods for tormenting guests to his kingdom, doomed to a life pushing a boulder up a hill, only to see it roll back down the other side, on through eternity. It would be an apt analogy for Franklin’s career at Penn State, except the Nittany Lions are always so welcoming when Ohio State or Michigan come to town. The only explanation is that this is punishment for making Vanderbilt good in the 2010s, and someone should tell Clark Lea to cool it before he ends up going 9-3 at USC for a decade straight.
For Day, this wasn’t the ultimate referendum on what has been a spectacular, though incomplete, résumé at Ohio State, but it was a needed win after the stumble at Oregon. His success is not measured by mere victories, but in how many of the tallest mountains he has scaled, and while Penn State is hardly his Everest, it wasn’t a face-plant down a flight of stairs either.
It was a game between two quarterbacks who grew up dreaming of playing on the opposite sideline — Ohio native Drew Allar for the Lions against Pennsylvania native Will Howard for the Buckeyes. Of course, all residents of Ohio and Pennsylvania ultimately hope to move to a condo in Boca Raton, but these guys at least hoped to stay close to home for college. Neither was spectacular Saturday, and each threw a critical interception — Allar’s on a wacky play at the back of the end zone and Howard’s on a brutal pick-six throw that begged for the losing-contestant jingle from “The Price is Right” to be played over any subsequent replays — but it was Howard who prevailed and, like in the Oregon game, scrambled and slid late to run out the clock. This time, a celebration followed the final ticks.
It was a game that, at least in practical terms, meant little for the Big Ten race or the College Football Playoff. Oregon and Indiana are now the league’s lone undefeated teams, but Ohio State and Penn State still seem all but certain to land a bid in the playoff. And yet, each yard Saturday felt important, each play a chapter in an epic tome about two coaches hoping to avoid another pitfall and two teams looking to prove something significant — to themselves as much as to the rest of the college football world.
Perhaps that’s the real takeaway from Ohio State’s performance Saturday. Yes, it felt in some ways like a cut-and-paste to games past, when the Buckeyes enforced their will and the Nittany Lions fought against the impending darkness; when Day proved once again why he’s Ohio State’s best chance at a national title and Franklin shoved that boulder a few more inches up the hill, knowing full well the abyss that awaited on the other side. It’s a movie we’ve seen before, but it’s always nice to rewatch the classics.
Jump to:
Five unbeatens left | Texas A&M gets trapped | Miami throttles Duke
Throwing Darts | Pavia 3-0 vs. Freeze | Georgia holds off Florida
Vibe shifts | Playoff check-in |Heisman five | Under the radar
And then there were five
Iowa State and Pitt both went down in Week 10, leaving just five remaining unbeaten teams in FBS.
The Cyclones had lived much of the season like your buddy who you leave broke at the casino only to find him at the breakfast buffet the next morning with a mile-high stack of waffles and a fistful of hundreds. On Saturday, their luck finally came to an end against Texas Tech. Rocco Becht led a touchdown drive to take a 22-17 lead with 2:11 to play, but the Red Raiders wouldn’t go away, marching 71 yards in 1:47 to pull out the 23-22 win.
Pitt enjoyed no such drama. The Panthers’ trip to SMU was an unmitigated disaster, with the ground game stifled, Eli Holstein struggling, and not a single barbecue spot in Dallas that would put French fries on a brisket sandwich. Brashard Smith was the star of the game, carrying 23 times for 161 yards and two touchdowns in the 48-25 win.
With those two losses, Oregon, BYU, Miami, Army and Indiana are the last remaining teams without a defeat.
Army upended Air Force 20-3 on Saturday, despite playing without QB Bryson Daily. Instead, the Black Knights relied on tailback Kanye Udoh, who carried 22 times for 158 yards and two scores. Army still has not trailed in a game this season.
Indiana entered Week 10 without playing from behind either, but Michigan State jumped out to a 10-0 lead at the end of the first quarter. But Kurtis Rourke decided to start trying in the second quarter, and things got ugly from there. Rourke finished with 263 yards passing and four touchdowns and the Hoosiers rolled to a 47-10 win. Indiana is 8-0 an is winning by an average of 33 points per game.
Week 9 ended with Texas A&M establishing itself as a frontrunner to make the SEC title game. Week 10 ended with the Aggies pancaked against a brick wall named LaNorris Sellers.
The Aggies defense got to Sellers often, but routinely bounced off the South Carolina QB like a toddler running into blimp, and the Gamecocks turned those frustrations into a chorus of big plays. South Carolina didn’t allow a sack, ran for 286 yards — including 106 from Sellers — and ran away with a 44-20 win.
Marcel Reed, who torched LSU last week with his legs, rushed for just 46 yards in the game, and the defense surrendered 530 yards to the Gamecocks — 101 more than it had allowed in a game all year.
The result left Aggies fans stunned, trying desperately to figure out how this was Jimbo Fisher’s fault, while Shane Beamer now has the Gamecocks at 5-3 and all but assured a bowl bid with FCS Wofford still on the slate.
Miami mauls Manny
With 13:51 to play in the game, Duke kicked a field goal to pull to within 1 of Miami. Eight minutes of game time later, the Canes were up 53-31, marking the second-most unpleasant thing Miami has done to Manny Diaz in the past three years.
Diaz, who coached at Miami, first as a defensive coordinator and then as head coach, from 2016-2021, made his return to South Florida with his 6-2 Duke team and, for three quarters at least, put up a good fight.
The problem? Cam Ward is a magician.
Just some more Cam Ward magic for your timeline 🪄
📺: ABC #GoCanes | #HE1SMAN pic.twitter.com/OpPUUF7iQX
— Miami Hurricanes Football (@CanesFootball) November 2, 2024
Ultimately, Ward threw for 400 yards and five touchdowns, pulled a live rabbit out of his helmet and sawed Mario Cristobal in half.
Miami’s defense continues to be a concern, however. The Canes allowed 325 yards passing to Maalik Murphy, but also picked him off three times to escape trouble. That they didn’t break out the turnover chain after each one to taunt their former coach did feel like a missed opportunity though.
Throwing Darts
For much of the season, Ole Miss had been the chief culprit in using fake injuries to gain an advantage in games, but last week, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey sent a letter to schools alerting them the practice must stop immediate or there would be fines and, possibly, suspensions. And yet, not even that warning could stop Arkansas‘ defense from rolling over and playing dead on Saturday.
Jaxson Dart threw for 515 yards and six touchdowns in Ole Miss’s rollicking 63-31 win, becoming the first SEC player ever with six TDs, no picks and more than 500 passing yards, according to ESPN Research. The bulk of Dart’s production was shared with receiver Jordan Watkins, who hauled in eight catches for 254 yards and five touchdowns.
After the game, Lane Kiffin praised his team’s emphatic performance and warned Sam Pittman to avoid any airport tarmacs for a few days.
Pavia’s sweet home
Diego Pavia threw for two touchdowns as Vanderbilt upended Auburn 17-7 on Saturday, Pavia’s third win in as many years against Tigers’ head coach Hugh Freeze.
At New Mexico State in 2022, Pavia was a 23-point underdog against Freeze’s Liberty and won 49-14. In 2023, Pavia led the Aggies into Auburn, where Freeze had taken over as head coach, as a 25-point underdog and walked out with a 31-10 win. Then Saturday, Vandy was an 8.5-point underdog at Auburn and won again. Aside from Houston Nutt’s lawyers, no one has caused more damage to Freeze’s career than Pavia.
Pavia is also now 3-0 career against teams from the state of Alabama, and he became just the 13th QB in the past 20 years to pick up wins against Auburn and the Tide in the same season, joining stars like Joe Burrow, Johnny Manziel and Matthew Stafford and somehow also Mitch Mustain.
Vandy is now bowl eligible for the first time since 2018 and has won four SEC games for the first time since 2013, when James Franklin was head coach. So, at least Franklin is being mentioned in something positive today.
It’d be easy enough to come away from Saturday’s latest installment of the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party wondering what’s wrong with Georgia. Certainly the offense has sputtered at times, and Carson Beck once again threw three picks, bringing his season tally to 11. The lackluster performance against Florida follows similar games against Kentucky and Mississippi State, along with a first half against Alabama so dismal it cost the Dawgs the game.
But the most logical explanation is Georgia wanted to toy with Billy Napier.
With a little more than 4 minutes to play, Florida was tied with Georgia at 20, and Napier was poised to save his job.
The Gators were riddled with injuries, losing QB DJ Lagway with a hamstring issue, and were forced to survive with a number of backups and a few of the guys working for the moving company who were packing up Napier’s stuff in anticipation of a blowout loss. It wasn’t always pretty.
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Florida botches the FG and Georgia recovers in great field position
Florida mishandles the field goal snap and Georgia recovers the ball in Florida territory.
Still, Florida kept hanging around. But this is how Georgia rolls. It toys with teams, gives them a false sense of confidence, then sneaks up behind them and pulls their underwear up over their head.
After Florida tied the game, Georgia engineered a 75-yard touchdown drive, picked off QB Aidan Warner one play later, then scored again to turn the close game into a blowout.
Week 10 vibe shifts
Each week, the college football landscape is reordered by surprising outcomes in big games. But many smaller shifts take place, too. We track them here.
Trending down: Big 12 preseason favorites
In the preseason Big 12 media poll, the top five were Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Arizona.
At least K-State looks good.
It’s been a nightmare for the rest of the group, including Arizona’s 56-12 dismantling by UCF and Oklahoma State’s 42-21 loss to Arizona State on Saturday.
Along with Kansas and Utah, those four teams are now a combined 12-22 overall and just 3-18 in Big 12 play.
Trending down: Love for Lincoln
The Lincoln Riley-USC relationship appears to be destined to end in tragedy.
Miller Moss threw three picks, and USC lost for the fifth time in its past seven games, falling to Washington 26-21 on Saturday. The Trojans are now 4-5 overall and 2-5 in Big Ten play. Worse, USC is now 5-11 in its last 16 overall after Riley opened his tenure there by winning 17 of his first 20.
The remainder of the schedule — vs. Nebraska, at UCLA and hosting Notre Dame — makes a bowl bid a possibility but far from a certainty.
Riley has already cut off practice access to the media and he has cut back on player interviews, too. His next move is to cut back on players’ screen time, have the media report all stories via Morse code and cancel Moss’s birthday party. Sure, the deposit on the clown is non-refundable, but drastic times call for drastic measures.
Trending up: Points for Iowa
Iowa trounced Wisconsin 42-10 on Saturday, crossing an unlikely threshold in the process.
Iowa has now scored 40+ points in a game 4 times in 2024.
It’s the 1st time since 2016 the Hawkeyes have scored 40+ points in 4 games in a year.
It’s also the 1st time since 2011 Iowa has scored 40+ points in 3 straight homes games.
Offensive explosion. pic.twitter.com/JTJFW05fdj
— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) November 3, 2024
Iowa has now scored 277 points this year, or one-and-a-half Brian Ferentzes, if you’re keeping track at home. More troubling, the Hawkeyes are averaging just four punts per game, which may be a violation of the Geneva Convention.
It should be noted, however, that Iowa has scored 111 more points through nine games than it did last year, but it has lost one more game than it had at this point last season. So let that be a lesson to you, Florida State. Be careful wishing for too much offense.
Trending up: Oklahoma‘s offense
Here’s a fun fact: Oklahoma has averaged 36.5 points per game over its past two. Now, please don’t dig any deeper into that statistic.
The Sooners got 203 yards and three touchdowns from Jovantae Barnes, while QB Jackson Arnold threw two touchdowns and went the entire game without splitting his pants or falling asleep in the huddle. In other words, it was an incredibly good day for Oklahoma’s offense. Yes, it was against Maine, which is technically an FCS team, but there are only roughly 45 people who live in Maine, so we assume at least half its defense is just moose and bears, which can’t be easy to run against.
Trending up: Boat rowing
After an ugly 2-3 start to the season, PJ Fleck has the Golden Gophers riding high. Minnesota knocked off No. 24 Illinois — its second ranked win in four weeks — 25-17 behind 131 yards and a touchdown from tailback Darius Taylor.
Minnesota lost on a late missed kick in the opener against North Carolina and lost by 3 to Michigan in a game it allowed just 241 yards early in the year, but the Gophers have rebounded by winning four straight and now look like the clear-cut No. 5 team in the Big Ten, which is essentially the same as being the fifth-best member of Van Halen. Sure, most folks stop counting after Sammy Hagar, but nobody wants to be behind Gary Cherone.
Trending down: Nebraska‘s bowl hopes
The Huskers, once 5-1 and ranked in the top 25, have now lost three straight after falling 27-20 to lowly UCLA on Saturday.
Nebraska looked all but assured to make its first bowl game since 2016 this year, but suddenly the odds aren’t quite so good. This was the Huskers’ 36th one-possession loss since that last bowl game, seven more than any other FBS team and 13 more than the next Big Ten school.
The remaining slate — at USC, vs. Wisconsin and at Iowa — offers no easy wins, so it could be an uphill battle to snatch victory No. 6. On the plus side for Nebraska, no one there expects good things to happen to them anymore anyway.
Trending down: FSU’s bragging rights
A quick refresher on Florida State‘s season: The Noles opened No. 10 nationally, lost in Ireland to Georgia Tech, lost later to Mike Norvell’s former school, lost badly to rival Miami and lost for the first time in program history to Duke.
But at least there was still some positive history on FSU’s side Saturday, as Mack Brown and North Carolina came to town. Brown is an FSU alum, but he has never beaten his alma mater, and certainly the Seminoles would be motivated to keep that streak alive and — sorry, we’re being told Omarion Hampton just scored again.
Indeed, Hampton and the Heels romped, 35-11, handing Brown his first win against Florida State in 12 chances as a head coach dating back to 1985. Next, Florida State plans to announce that “Smokey and the Bandit II” wasn’t really that good, thus flushing yet another piece of its rich history down the drain.
No matter how many times we’ve assumed they’ve hit rock bottom, these Noles just keep digging. You really have to admire their determination.
Taking the temperature of the top 12
On Tuesday, we get our first College Football Playoff rankings. To prep you for this big event, let’s take a deep dive into the biggest questions facing the committee as it meets in its secret lair behind Greg Sankey’s pool house this week.
Is Oregon the clear-cut No. 1?
At this point, it seems tough to argue. Oregon is simply demoralizing opponents, as it did to Michigan on Saturday, 38-17. Of course, Michigan has been demoralized plenty lately. The Wolverines QB carousel continued against the Ducks, with Davis Warren and Alex Orji subbing in and out, and neither finding much of a rhythm. This comes a week after former starter Jack Tuttle medically retired and several other members of the depth chart started a commune in Nicaragua in hopes of living off the grid.
The only real competition for the top spot might come from Georgia, whose lone loss came to Alabama in a game in which the Dawgs also erased a 28-point deficit. Still, the lackluster performance against Florida in Week 10 didn’t provide much evidence the committee should overlook Oregon, even if Georgia’s supposed struggles are really all part of Kirby Smart’s diabolical plan to convince his team no one believes in them, thus motivating them to crush everyone in sight once the playoff starts. In fairness, his last scheme to sink most of eastern Georgia into the ocean so he can have beachfront property in Athens was mostly lifted from “Superman,” and it didn’t work for Lex Luthor either.
Should Boise State be a top-four seed?
The new 12-team playoff awards opening-round byes for the top four conference champions, and at this point, it might be fair to ask if Boise State could eclipse the winner of the Big 12.
The Broncos’ lone loss came by 3 points to No. 1 Oregon in a game that came down to a go-ahead field goal as time expired. Boise State features, arguably, the best player in the country in Ashton Jeanty, and it demolished San Diego State, 56-24, on Friday in spite of a relatively lackluster performance from the star back. Boise State also has solid (if unranked) wins against Washington State (6-1) and UNLV (5-2).
Of course, the more appealing option might be for Boise State to finish somewhere in the No. 5 through 8 range because nothing would ring in this new era of the 12-team playoff better than playing the first game on the blue turf.
What do we make of the SEC?
Every team in the league has at least one conference loss now. Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M and Ole Miss all have multiple losses. Georgia has scuffled regularly, Tennessee has flirted with disaster in multiple games as it struggles to find a consistent passing game, and Texas has been startlingly bereft of Arch Manning snaps of late.
Saturday’s slate only reinforced the concerns. The Aggies still are searching for an offensive identity. Kentucky benched starting QB Brock Vandagriff, who now will return to his full-time job as a roadie for Ted Nugent, but still were within striking distance until late in the forth quarter against the up-and-down Vols. Georgia may be the best team in the country, but it only plays like it for about six minutes per game, and Ole Miss is ridiculously explosive but also entirely erratic.
In other words, the SEC is basically just the old Pac-12, only without the shame or consequences.
So, is the SEC still a four-bid league? It’s getting tougher to see four championship-caliber teams here, but that’s the joy of a 12-team playoff. Half of those teams probably never had a shot at winning it all anyway.
Is the ACC a two-bid league?
Miami has taken care of business so far this season, in spite of a secondary that’s mostly involved asking politely for receivers not to catch the football. With games at Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and at Syracuse remaining, the Canes still look like an obvious playoff team, barring a remarkable collapse, which would almost certainly be overturned by ACC officials anyway.
But could the ACC be in line for a second playoff team, too?
Clemson looked the part after roughing up six straight bad teams — none ranked in the top 70 of ESPN’s FPI — but Louisville put a wrinkle in those plans Saturday. The Tigers sleepwalked through the first three quarters, and the Cardinals romped to a 33-21 win.
1:00
Isaac Brown celebrates Louisville TD with ‘Night Night’ celly
Isaac Brown does the “Night Night” celebration in front of the Clemson crowd after his 45-yard run pads Louisville’s lead.
Dabo Swinney, ever the optimist, followed the loss by wanting to focus on the positives, such as the fact that none of his players were mauled by sharks, and he has some takeout from Smoking Pig in the fridge when he gets home.
SMU now looks like the clear-cut No. 2 in the league after demolishing previously undefeated Pitt. The Mustangs lone loss came by three against undefeated BYU in a game when they had the ball inside the Cougars’ 30 six times and managed just nine points. They’ll face Boston College, visit Virginia and host Cal before the season ends, with an inside track on an ACC title game appearance.
So, would Miami and SMU both be in if they win out? Could a 10-2 Clemson be in the mix, too?
Sankey would like to counter this notion by doubling over in laughter before dismissively asking, “Oh, were you serious about that?”
Where does the Big 12 fit in?
Iowa State’s loss leaves BYU as the frontrunner, but the rest of the league is a mess of possibilities. The Cyclones and Colorado are each 4-1 in conference, though the tie-breaker rule that prioritizes Instagram likes would seem to favor the Buffaloes. Kansas State and Texas Tech are both 4-2 in conference play, and four other teams still have two or fewer league losses, setting up a potential for chaos and — should one of those less-than-ideal teams manage to win the Big 12 title game — possibly knock the league out of a top four seed.
Ultimately, there’s a simple enough solution here: The committee should enforce the “2023 Florida State doctrine” and simply give Colorado the ACC’s spot in the playoff regardless, because TV ratings are what keeps the committee’s meeting room stocked with Cuban cigars, French champagne and all the Mountain Dew Baja Blast Jim Grobe can drink.
Will there be any surprises?
We’ve been pretty certain what the playoff will look like all along: Five conference champs, at least five wild cards from the SEC and Big Ten, Notre Dame snags its bid, and one more wild card comes from either the ACC or Big 12.
But, what if Washington State gets into the mix? The Cougars are 7-1 and will be favored in each of their last four. Could they sneak into the top 12 if they keep winning? Or how about Army? The Black Knights get Notre Dame in three weeks in a game that could send shockwaves through the playoff. And then there’s Kentucky. The Wildcats are just 3-6, but with all six Ls coming in SEC play, no one has more quality losses, which we know the committee loves.
Heisman five
The favorites held serve in the Heisman race this week, and it’s increasingly looking like a four-man race, but we’d nevertheless like to offer some Heisman love to Duke offensive lineman Micah Sahakian for providing us with the best chyron of the season.
— Sickos Committee (@SickosCommittee) November 2, 2024
Believe it or not, Saturday’s win over Duke was Ward’s first time this season with at least 400 yards passing and four touchdowns. He had 400 yards twice before, and this was his fourth time with at least four touchdown passes, but they had never overlapped in the same game. This was basically Ward’s KFC Double Down game, where the big plays are both the bread and the meat.
2. Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty
On Friday, San Diego State’s defensive scheme basically amounted to putting eight players, a set of road flairs and a few of those inflatable waving-arm guys in the box to stop Jeanty at any cost. Turns out, the cost was QB Maddux Madsen throwing for 307 yards and four touchdowns in a 56-24 win. Oh, and Jeanty still had 149 yards rushing (plus 31 receiving) and two touchdowns.
3. Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter
Colorado was off in Week 10, which begs the question of why anyone even bothered to watch games. Still, Hunter remains the most dynamic player in the country, playing 858 snaps already this year despite missing the better part of two games and having to constantly fend off DJ Khaled on the sideline constantly pushing for them to leave the game early and hit up White Castle.
4. Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel
Gabriel threw for a touchdown and ran for another in Oregon’s 38-17 win over Michigan, but honestly, it’s really not even fun to watch the Ducks demolish opponents anymore. Gabriel and tailback Jordan James should have to tie their legs together before each snap like some sort of potato sack race just to make Oregon’s games more interesting.
5. Spot reserved for Army QB Bryson Daily
Daily missed Army’s 20-3 win over Air Force with an undisclosed injury. Or perhaps he was on a top-secret mission to infiltrate a top military target, or battling Hugo Drax’s henchmen on an international space station before they wipe out humanity. Either way, we hope he’s back soon.
Under-the-radar play of the week
Louisiana-Monroe‘s hot start has come to a screeching halt, with the Warhawks dropping back-to-back games, including Saturday’s 28-23 defeat at the hands of Marshall.
Perhaps the symbolic low point for ULM came just ahead of a fourth-and-1 play with 11:43 to go in the third, when offensive lineman Drew Hutchinson offhandedly suggested that Taylor Swift’s “Tortured Poet’s Department” was meandering and self-indulgent, to which O-line coach Cameron Blankenship strongly disagreed.
0:29
ULM assistant coach has meltdown in face of own player
Check out ULM’s assistant coach Cameron Blankenship going absolutely ballistic in the face of his own player, offensive lineman Drew Hutchinson.
In fairness, you really shouldn’t mess with Swifties.
Under-the-radar game of the week
Baylor rallied from down 7 in the fourth quarter, blew a 7-point lead with less than 2 minutes to play, then beat TCU 37-34 on a 33-yard field goal as time expired.
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Baylor kicks game-winning FG as time expires to upend TCU
Baylor wins as time expires behind a game-winning field goal to top TCU in Big 12 action.
The win came 10 years after Baylor also beat TCU by 3 in a game that ultimately kept both teams out of the inaugural College Football Playoff, opening the door for Ohio State to win it all in 2014.
The stakes were a bit lower for this one, but the Bears are now in need of just one win in their past three — at West Virginia, at Houston, home to Kansas — to earn a bowl bid and possibly save Dave Aranda’s job.
For TCU, however, the loss is yet another bit of frustrating in a season chock full of it, and it’s the second loss of the year on a field goal inside of a minute to play. It’s also TCU’s sixth one-possession loss since going to the national title game in 2022. Regression to the mean is not pleasant.
Welcome to September! Five months into Major League Baseball’s 2025 season, a number of things seem to be settled — from a few divisions to some award races — but plenty of intrigue remains entering the homestretch.
Which of the current contenders will reach the playoffs? How will the closer division races play out? Which teams will secure first-round byes? And how many games will the Colorado Rockies lose?!
To discuss what the final month of the regular season might bring, we asked 16 ESPN baseball experts some of the game’s biggest questions, covering September and beyond, and to explain their answers. We also asked them to make bold predictions about what will happen over the final stretch.
Let’s get into it.
Which team will finish with the best record in baseball?
Milwaukee Brewers: 14
Detroit Tigers: 1
Los Angeles Dodgers: 1
What makes the Brewers the favorite to secure the majors’ best record? Besides the buffer the Brewers have built as we enter the final month of the regular season, there’s just nothing to suggest a falloff. They are on track to win about 100 games and their run differential supports that pace. The remaining schedule is friendly. And Milwaukee’s production has come from every position and category. It’s just a really complete team. — Bradford Doolittle
How many of the current 12 teams projected for the playoffs will be in the postseason field?
All 12: 15
11: 1
You have the Royals ousting the Mariners from the playoff field. Why do you think that will happen? The Kansas City Royals will make the playoffs. Crazy? Not so. They’ve played great in July and August. Vinnie Pasquantino is mashing home runs, Bobby Witt Jr. is red hot and the players they added at the trade deadline have chipped in to make this a good offense. The Royals also have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. But which team can they catch?
It might hinge on a three-game series at home against Seattle in mid-September. The Mariners have a recent history of falling just short of the postseason — including last year, when the Royals clinched a wild-card spot with 86 wins and the Mariners won 85 (the Mariners blew an 8-0 lead against Kansas City in June, which loomed large at the end of the season). Seattle has struggled on the road, so the aforementioned series can catapult the Royals back into the postseason. — David Schoenfield
Who will be the No. 1 seed in the AL: Toronto or Detroit?
Detroit Tigers: 14
Toronto Blue Jays: 2
The Tigers were the overwhelming choice. Why did you take them? For me, this was mostly a schedule play. The top seed, based on the standings, is likely to be the Tigers or the Blue Jays, with the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners all within plausible striking distance. Toronto doesn’t have an easy series left. Detroit’s schedule isn’t nearly as rigorous. In a race this close, with teams this close in talent and production, little things like schedule luck often determine the outcome. — Jeff Passan
You were one of two voters to pick the Blue Jays. Why do you think they top Detroit? The Tigers are a wonderful story, but not so much since the All-Star break, as they have played .500 ball, struggled to score runs and their ERA is among the bottom 10 in baseball. The Blue Jays are peaking at the right time, scoring plenty of runs, and Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber make the rotation formidable. Frankly, all three AL East contenders are better than the current Tigers, and it should show in the final standings. — Eric Karabell
Assuming the Brewers get one, who will get the second bye in the NL?
Los Angeles Dodgers: 9
Philadelphia Phillies: 5
San Diego Padres: 2
Despite dealing with star players slumping and a mountain of injuries this season, the Dodgers are still the slight favorites for the No. 2 seed in a stacked NL. Explain why. Because those are the very reasons why the Dodgers firmly believe their best baseball is still ahead of them. Their bullpen will soon be as close to whole as it has been all season. The same can be said about the lineup. The rotation already is, and the four-man group they’ll put together in October will be scary if the starters remain healthy.
That’s a big “if,” considering the pitching ailments that have plagued them the last couple years. But at the end of the day, the Dodgers possess the most depth and talent in the sport. They feel as if they’re on the verge of truly showcasing it. — Alden Gonzalez
The Phillies also received a fair number of votes. What makes them your pick? The Phillies seem to be flying under the radar for a team that has spent most of the season on a 95-win pace. Maybe it’s the Zack Wheeler injury, maybe it’s their struggles against the New York Mets — or maybe it’s just that this is about what we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from Philly over the past few seasons.
But there is plenty to like here over the final month and into October as well. Even without Wheeler, the Phillies have the best Game 1 starter of any NL contender in Cristopher Sanchez. Kyle Schwarber has a real shot at Ryan Howard’s franchise home run record (58). They acquired the best reliever to move at the deadline in Jhoan Duran and filled their biggest hole by trading for outfielder Harrison Bader. Oh, and they currently hold that second spot in the NL — with a 1 1/2 game cushion over the Dodgers. — Dan Mullen
Will the Dodgers or Padres win the NL West?
Los Angeles Dodgers: 13
San Diego Padres: 3
The Dodgers were our voters’ overwhelming favorite to win the division. Why — and how — do you think San Diego can overtake L.A.? More than any other team, I think the Dodgers look at their seasons from 30,000 feet, rather than succumbing to the concerns of the moment. They demonstrate this every year with their handling of pitching injuries — they essentially rest veteran starters through long stretches of the season, rather than push them in May and June, in order to do what they can to ensure that the players will be relatively fresh in October. This is why we’ve seen such a deliberate ramp-up with Shohei Ohtani.
That’s why I think the Padres will wind up winning the division. They bolstered their bullpen with Mason Miller at the trade deadline, and since then, it feels like they’ve been playing a series of Game 7s. And, let’s face it, San Diego is all-in in trying to win right now, with its top-heavy roster and the likes of Dylan Cease and Michael King headed for free agency in the fall. The Dodgers, on the other hand, won’t go to the whip in September in the same way. No matter how their own division plays out, they’ll make the playoffs and have a shot to repeat as World Series winners, while it feels as if San Diego is going to go all-out down the stretch to win the NL West.
Different pressures, different styles, different context. — Buster Olney
Who will win the AL West?
Houston Astros: 8
Seattle Mariners: 8
Make the case for the Astros: Picking Houston to win the West isn’t going out on much of a limb: They’re currently in first place, just got slugger Yordan Alvarez back from injury and simply have more pedigree than Seattle. The Mariners have a slightly easier schedule the rest of the way but their road woes are for real — and will likely prevent them from going on an extended run. Picking against the Astros would be the headline-scratching move. They’re the division champ once again. — Jesse Rogers
Make the case for the Mariners: The Mariners aren’t playing their best baseball, but they are healthy and within striking distance of the Astros for the division entering September. Their starting rotation is elite. The bullpen and offense should be better. Meanwhile, the Astros have recently gotten Yordan Alvarez back from injury, but they’re without Josh Hader and Isaac Paredes, among others. The division could come down to the three-game series between the two rivals in late September. — Jorge Castillo
How many games will the Rockies lose?
119: 1
118: 3
117: 1
116: 3
115: 3
114: 3
113: 1
112: 1
We got quite the breadth of answers to this question, but you were one of three to say 118 losses — our second-highest loss total. Why is that your prediction? The Rockies aren’t far removed from being on a modern record-setting pace for losses, and they’ve been especially awful against the current 12 teams in the playoff field: 9-50 (.153). They play 13 of their final 24 against that group, at a time when they’re increasingly leaning on younger and less experienced players. Their September isn’t going to be pretty. — Tristan Cockcroft
Make one bold prediction about the final stretch
Tim Kurkjian: Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh will finish the season with 60 home runs.
Matt Marrone: With most of the playoff field set — other than last-minute jockeying for seeds — all eyes will be on the Mariners over the final days of the season, as Raleigh sets a new AL home run record.
Kiley McDaniel: Between hitting and pitching, Shohei Ohtani catches Raleigh in total WAR.
Passan: Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz will finish in the top five of AL MVP voting.
Karabell: The Phillies call up top pitching prospect Andrew Painter on Sept. 7 and he goes 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA.
Mullen: Nolan McLean will be the NL’s best pitcher not named Paul Skenes over the final month and take the mound in October — as the Mets’ Game 1 playoff starter.
Paul Hembekides: Boston’s Garrett Crochet will overtake Detroit’s Tarik Skubal and win the AL Cy Young Award.
Schoenfield: The Red Sox will catch the Blue Jays and win the AL East.
Gonzalez: Actually, the Yankees will win the AL East.
Cockcroft: Not only do the Yankees overtake Toronto for the division title, but they also grab a first-round bye, even if they can’t quite catch the Tigers for the No. 1 seed.
Olney: The Yankees have such a soft schedule in the final weeks that they wind up with the second-best record in the AL … but because Toronto holds on to win the division, New York is the No. 4 seed and faces Boston in the wild-card round.
Tim Keown: The Padres, with the easiest remaining schedule in baseball, will go 7-0 against the Colorado Rockies in September to win the NL West and take the second first-round bye spot.
Castillo: The Mets will overtake the Phillies and win the NL East.
Doolittle: If we started the playoffs tomorrow, the bracket would look exactly the same as it will after we’ve played out the season.
Voters: Dan Mullen, Liz Finny, Paul Hembekides, Jeff Passan, Eric Karabell, Alden Gonzalez, David Schoenfield, Tim Kurkjian, Kiley McDaniel, Tim Keown, Jorge Castillo, Matt Marrone, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Tristan Cockcroft, Buster Olney
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Bradford Doolittle
The last Stock Watch of the regular season is here. Before the next one, we’ll know who the 2025 World Series champion is, and will be knee-deep in another Hot Stove season.
With the Milwaukee Brewers topping the watch for the second month in a row, let’s use that surprising fact to make a couple of observations about this year’s competition:
• Payroll matters but it’s still no excuse. The likely playoff bracket looks loaded with big markets and big spenders, but teams like the Brewers and Kansas City Royals kind of take away the excuses of everyone who bemoans baseball’s economic disparity. Not that we shouldn’t seek to even the field, but in the meantime, teams should still be trying to win.
• There’s a solid chance we might see a champion we’ve never seen before. There are just five remaining teams with a goose egg in the World Series championship column. One of them is the Brewers, whose odds for ending that drought are the highest in baseball. Two others are the San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners, both likely playoff teams. Taken together, these three clubs have around a 28% shot at this year’s title. In other words, there’s better than a 1-in-4 chance that some long-suffering fan base will get to have a parade in a couple of months.
With the MLB trade deadline more than a month old, let’s take a look at the most recent fortunes of all 30 teams, with an eye on how their moves (or non-moves) have worked (or not worked) so far.
Win average: 98.7 (Last: 95.9, 1st)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 99.2%)
Champions: 18.3% (Last:11.3%)
Deadline aftermath: Milwaukee was quiet at the deadline and hasn’t gotten much from its additions. Backup catcher Danny Jansen hasn’t hit since arriving, while reliever Shelby Miller has been so-so in a mid-leverage role. Yet Milwaukee has baseball’s best record and run differential since deadline day. Sometimes you don’t mess with a good thing. Should the injury to closer Trevor Megill linger, you might argue Milwaukee should have been more aggressive in pursuit of a back-end reliever. First, we ought to wait for the Brewers’ bullpen to actually struggle, because Milwaukee always has an answer when it comes to filling roster holes.
Win average: 93.8 (Last: 92.7, 5th)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 96.8%)
Champions: 10.6% (Last: 7.8%)
Deadline aftermath: Dave Dombrowski went with quality over quantity at the deadline and it has paid off. Harrison Bader has mashed while playing mostly every day in center field. Jhoan Duran hasn’t been perfect, but he has been everything the Phillies could have hoped for, while changing the dynamic of the bullpen, now and looking ahead to October. It took Duran a month to move into a tie for the Phillies’ saves lead, a period during which he didn’t allow a walk or a homer. The additions continue even after the stinging loss of Zack Wheeler. Conceding nothing, Dombrowski also signed Walker Buehler on Sunday after Buehler was released by the Red Sox.
Win average: 93.3 (Last: 95.8, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 99.9% (Last: 99.4%)
Champions: 7.2% (Last: 13.6%)
Deadline aftermath: Chicago’s quiet deadline rankled pundits, and the reaction hasn’t softened given the struggles of the few additions the Cubs did make, and the ongoing distance between them and the Brewers in the National League Central. The Cubs might want to stop trading for infielders at the deadline. Last year, they picked up Isaac Paredes, who flailed as a Cub, then moved on and went back to his typical self this year with the Astros. This time, Willi Castro has gone from an above-average hitter with Minnesota to borderline unplayable with the Cubs, at least at the dish, as part of Chicago’s overall offensive slide.
Win average: 92.9 (Last: 95.8, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 99.9% (Last: 99.4%)
Champions: 10.6% (Last: 15.4%)
Deadline aftermath: Los Angeles’ deadline approach was more similar to a team straddling the add/subtract fence than what the Dodgers actually are: a talent-laden, mega-rich defending champ angling for a repeat. Alex Call has helped as an extra outfielder who plays against lefties, but reliever Brock Stewart has struggled. Mostly the Dodgers have leaned on improved pitching health over the past month. Their revived hurlers have kept the Dodgers in the elite tier. Over the remainder of the season, if L.A. can match its first-half hitting with its second-half pitching, the Dodgers will hit the postseason as the behemoth we always thought they were.
Win average: 92.9 (Last: 93.3, 4th)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 99.2%)
Champions: 11.3% (Last: 11.3%)
Deadline aftermath: The Tigers went heavy on pitching at the deadline with a particular focus on positive regression candidates. It has worked for the bullpen, where Kyle Finnegan in particular has looked like a different pitcher than he was for Washington. The returns on starters Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack have been mixed. Detroit has played middling ball over the past month, largely due to an offense that has fallen off a bit and went unaddressed in the trade market. The Tigers are fine in the American League Central race, but find themselves in a tight battle for a No. 1 seed with Toronto.
Win average: 91.7 (Last: 90.7, 6th)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 92.9%)
Champions: 7.7% (Last: 5.3%)
Deadline aftermath: A leaky bullpen has kept the Blue Jays from keeping their AL East rivals at bay, and, as we enter the final month, Toronto could end up with a No. 1 seed or could be a road team in the wild-card round. The deadline impact has been mixed. Shane Bieber looks like Shane Bieber, an undeniable boost. But on a relief staff that features a closer (Jeff Hoffman) with 29 saves and a below-replacement bWAR, the additions of Seranthony Dominguez and Louis Varland have yet to pay off. If Toronto’s bullpen picks up the pace, this is a complete team.
Win average: 90.6 (Last: 90.2, 7th)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 89.0%)
Champions: 4.0% (Last: 4.5%)
Deadline aftermath: The Padres overtook the Dodgers a couple of times in August, only to slip back behind their nemesis. A.J. Preller’s deadline haul has accomplished its primary objective, which was to shore up roster holes and raise San Diego’s floor. The exception to that description — the addition of Mason Miller to an already strong bullpen — looks very much like a ceiling raiser. The only quibble might be in the rotation, where those the Padres dealt (Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek) have together outpitched those Preller acquired (Nestor Cortes, JP Sears). But Freddy Fermin, acquired for Bergert and Kolek, stabilized the catcher position.
Win average: 90.5 (Last: 88.8, 11th)
In the playoffs: 98.9% (Last: 87.2%)
Champions: 10.6% (Last: 8.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Yankees’ trajectory changed sharply over the second half of August, a month they exited as one of baseball’s hottest teams. Behind a reinvigorated offense and a steady rotation, New York is back in contention for the AL East crown, a No. 1 seed, the whole pinstriped ball of wax. But the deadline-infused bullpen needs to pull it together consistently, or Yankees fans will enter October in an even more heightened state of anxiety than usual. If not for the solid work done so far by ex-Pirate David Bednar, New York’s work bolstering the relief group might look even worse.
Win average: 89.7 (Last: 88.9, 10th)
In the playoffs: 97.9% (Last: 87.6%)
Champions: 6.7% (Last: 5.5%)
Deadline aftermath: Boston’s pitching staff additions of Steven Matz and Dustin May didn’t exactly scream “‘all-in!” for a team that by the end of July had positioned itself for a playoff run. May and earlier in-season addition Jordan Hicks haven’t had an impact, but Matz has been lights out in a surging bullpen. Boston continues to play well, and the promotion of rotation prospect Payton Tolle is a jolt of energy for that unit. The Red Sox needed a power bat, but those were in short supply. The bottom line is that Boston hasn’t lost any ground since we last convened.
Win average: 88.1 (Last: 89.5, 9th)
In the playoffs: 85.3% (Last: 88.0%)
Champions: 3.6% (Last: 6.1%)
Deadline aftermath: Whatever you thought about Houston’s attempt to bolster its offense at the deadline with the additions of Carlos Correa, Jesus Sanchez and Ramon Urias, it hasn’t had the desired effect. Houston had a losing August (13-15) while ranking 26th in net runs per game. Only the Guardians scored fewer runs. Each member of the incoming trio has performed close to projection, so you can’t blame them, and it’s likely that without them, things would be worse. Still, the Astros enter the stretch run in a more precarious position than they’ve been in a long time.
Win average: 86.7 (Last: 90.1, 8th)
In the playoffs: 88.2% (Last: 89.4%)
Champions: 5.2% (Last: 4.5%)
Deadline aftermath: The Mets enter September with one of baseball’s hottest offenses. They also have one of MLB’s coldest pitching staffs. Thus, we’ve seen many games like New York’s 10-8 win over Detroit on Labor Day. The Mets got five quality starts in August. That isn’t great, but if the bullpen is rolling … well, it’s not. The relievers went 2-for-7 in save opportunities. Deadline pickups Gregory Soto and Tyler Rogers have been fine, but the splash was supposed to come from Ryan Helsley, whose August ERA (9.31) was more like a belly flop. There’s a month to get this right before the playoffs.
Win average: 86.5 (Last: 86.8, 12th)
In the playoffs: 74.1% (Last: 70.4%)
Champions: 2.6% (Last: 3.4%)
Deadline aftermath: The process — acquiring Arizona’s corner infield of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez — was deservedly lauded. The early results are mixed. At first base, Seattle’s OPS before Naylor’s Mariners debut was 0.708, mostly Rowdy Tellez and Donovan Solano. Since then, it’s 0.761. Good! At third base, the OPS was 0.664 before Suarez. It’s 0.659 since. Meh! Seattle has treaded water since the deadline splash, ranking 18th in runs, despite a huge month from Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh‘s homer-fest. The Mariners need their big guns to get hot at the same time, because nothing, not even a playoff slot, is assured.
Win average: 83.6 (Last: 84.1, 13th)
In the playoffs: 28.7% (Last: 43.2%)
Champions: 1.1% (Last: 2.1%)
Deadline aftermath: Despite lackluster offense, Texas targeted pitching before the deadline, coming away with relievers Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton. The big prize was starter Merrill Kelly, who seemed like a luxury addition until the injury to Nathan Eovaldi. The Rangers have leaned on Kelly and he has responded. That hasn’t been the case for the relievers, and for most of August, the Texas bullpen prevented the club from really catching fire. Texas heated up lately, but now faces most if not all of September without Eovaldi, Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Manager Bruce Bochy will need to be in Hall of Fame form.
Win average: 82.5 (Last: 80.9, 16th)
In the playoffs: 11.3% (Last: 12.5%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.1%)
Deadline aftermath: The Royals continue to undermine excuses from less aggressive clubs in baseball’s lower economic tiers. The threshold isn’t that high. Just try. Kansas City’s offense for most of the season was a hodgepodge of negative regression performers down from 2024, and glaring, gaping holes. The Royals, seven games under .500 near the end of June, added anyway, raising their floor with the likes of Adam Frazier, Randal Grichuk and Mike Yastrzemski. They also bolstered an injury-plagued rotation with Bergert and Kolek. End result: The Royals have plenty to play for during the stretch run. A playoff return remains in play.
Win average: 81.6 (Last: 82.3, 14th)
In the playoffs: 6.8% (Last: 12.3%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.4%)
Deadline aftermath: The Reds’ acquisition of starter Zack Littell struck me as odd and, frankly, it still does. He has been pretty good. But Cincinnati has plenty of “pretty good” when it comes to the rotation. The Reds have candidates for much better than that behind the pretty good. Anyway, the pickups for the lineup have been chef’s kiss good. Miguel Andujar has hit like peak-level Miguel Cabrera. Ke’Bryan Hayes has flashed his elite defense and paired it with a level of offense that adds up to a really good player. If the Reds don’t make the playoffs, it won’t be because of deadline deficiencies.
Win average: 81.6 (Last: 81.8, 15th)
In the playoffs: 4.8% (Last: 9.4%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.2%)
Deadline aftermath: The Giants went into soft unload mode around the deadline. They weren’t playing well, and while their probabilities made the playoffs possible, the trajectory wasn’t good. A month later, the Giants’ position hasn’t changed — they’re still a fringe playoff candidate — but some of their pickups have already contributed. Jose Butto has been very good out of the bullpen, and Drew Gilbert, while swinging at everything, has flashed some pop and is getting acclimated to the majors. The Giants are offering a glimpse of what they’ll be next season, and have given their fans reasons to watch the stretch run with interest.
Win average: 80.8 (Last: 80.3, 17th)
In the playoffs: 3.6% (Last: 10.2%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.4%)
Deadline aftermath: Once again, the Rays’ deadline was about setting themselves up for the next season while not totally raising the white flag on the current one. As you can see from the unchanged win projection, things have chugged along on the same track, though staying the course has come with dwindling playoff odds. The new catchers — Hunter Feduccia and Nick Fortes — have together hit less than a pre-universal-DH pitcher. But the various departures have created openings for Feduccia, Carson Williams and Everson Pereira, and that’s the general idea. A miracle wild-card berth is not, as yet, totally out of the question.
Win average: 79.4 (Last: 79.3, 19th)
In the playoffs: 0.9% (Last: 6.5%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Deadline aftermath: Having Bieber around for Cleveland’s long shot postseason bid would be nice, but the judgment on the deal with Toronto is years off and pending the development of prospect Khal Stephen. Besides, Cleveland’s problem isn’t pitching. Despite finishing .500 in August, the Guardians enjoyed a clean sweep in the major hitting categories, finishing last in runs, average, OBP and slugging. Between the putrid attack and the losses of pitchers Luis L. Ortiz and Emmanuel Clase to indefinite leave, it’s amazing that Cleveland’s hopes remain slightly alive. That’s the beauty of this year’s AL. It’s hard to play yourself out of contention.
Win average: 78.9 (Last: 77.3, 21st)
In the playoffs: 0.5% (Last: 0.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: You can argue whether the Twins or the Diamondbacks traded more right-now value at the deadline but it’s one of the two. For Arizona, the losses of Kelly, Naylor, Suarez, Miller and Grichuk have … helped? It’s hard to claim that Arizona has played better because of those departures, but the Snakes have played better. The Diamondbacks went 17-12 in August and were in the top 10 in both run scoring and run prevention. Suarez replacement Blaze Alexander has taken off on offense, while on the pitching side, the bullpen has gotten hot thanks to the work of off-the-radar types.
Win average: 78.1 (Last: 79.4, 18th)
In the playoffs: 0.4% (Last: 2.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Deadline aftermath: The Cardinals followed a standard route last month, dealing free agents-to-be and forgoing short-term additions. The approach adheres to St. Louis’ plan to treat the 2025 season as a minor nuisance, no matter if the team on the field clings to fringe contention. The losses of those dealt, even closer Helsley, given how he has performed in New York, haven’t had any effect on the short-term performance. The Cardinals continue to plug along in the middle as they were, waiting for next season. In some ways, it might have been easier for their fans if the Cardinals had just politely bottomed out.
Win average: 75.8 (Last: 78.1, 20th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 1.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Marlins played it casual at the deadline rather than kicking the can down the road by dealing Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera, for now anyway. So the rest of the season is about getting better and creating opportunity for young players like outfielder Jakob Marsee, who put up a huge August in the relative vacuum of a standard Marlins season. Unfortunately, one of the aspirants won’t be deadline pickup Ryan Gusto, who was torched over three Marlins starts before going down with a shoulder impingement. Hopefully in September we’ll see more prospects like Victor Mesa Jr. and Andrew Pintar.
Win average: 75.4 (Last: 76.0, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 1.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Angels’ soft add around the deadline has actually worked, to a degree, in that bullpen additions Andrew Chafin and Luis Garcia have been airtight. Thus a bottom-five bullpen has been middle of the pack since the end of July. But a 6.35 rotation ERA and an 0.665 OPS by the offense in August have rendered that development moot. The early returns on ex-Yankee Oswald Peraza haven’t been good, as not only has he struggled to keep his OPS over 0.500, but he gave up eight runs on the mound during a mop-up appearance. The Angels’ season appears headed nowhere.
Win average: 74.2 (Last: 69.5, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The A’s went 3-24 between May 6 and June 4, a month that sunk what looked like a possible wild-card candidacy. You don’t get to erase bad months from the record, but it’s worth considering that outside of that plunge, the Athletics are 10 games over .500. The splash at the deadline — trading Miller and getting elite prospect Leo De Vries in return — was a long-term play. Despite the short-term hit, the A’s had the fifth-best net runs per game figure in the majors during August and their relievers posted the best ERA in baseball. The Athletics are getting good.
Win average: 74.1 (Last: 72.4, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Braves had a winning month after the deadline, but it did little to mitigate a titanically disappointing season in Cobb County. The injuries have continued, as have some pretty crucial underperformances, like that of starter Spencer Strider. Michael Harris II has been hot as a firecracker since the break, which has been encouraging, but this season has mostly been one of Atlanta becoming a frequent stop on the DFA merry-go-round. The only note you might offer about the deadline is that pending free agents Raisel Iglesias and Marcell Ozuna should have been moved. It’s been a rough season.
Win average: 73.8 (Last: 76.1, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 1.3%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: Unsurprisingly, the Twins have floundered since their aggressive offloading approach to the deadline. With this season lost, Minnesota’s short-term focus is on the young players it picked up during the flurry of activity. The initial results for James Outman, Alan Roden, Mick Abel and Taj Bradley have been subpar across the board, but it’s early days and that list just represents those who have reached the majors. In any event, when you look at the exploits of ex-Twins like Harrison Bader, Jhoan Duran and Carlos Correa on their new teams, you can’t say Minnesota hasn’t impacted the pennant races.
Win average: 72.3 (Last: 72.3, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Orioles turned the page on a disappointing season at the deadline and added depth to their system in the process. The on-field results haven’t improved since the reshuffling, though the rotation had a nice run of outings. It’s all about next season. The Orioles’ August was a mixed bag in that regard. On the downside, Coby Mayo, Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser struggled last month. Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers reached the majors, with Beavers in particular getting off to a good start. The Orioles won’t return to the postseason, but they can enter the offseason with positive momentum.
Win average: 71.6 (Last: 69.9, 26th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: With the Pirates’ focus, as ever, on the distant horizon, the remainder of Pittsburgh’s post-deadline roster has stayed competitive. The rotation remains the unit to watch, and August was not without interest for that group. Paul Skenes continues to build a Cy Young case, but for once, he’s not the biggest reason for excitement. That would be Bubba Chandler, technically a reliever for now, who has looked terrific over a pair of bulk outings. After eight scoreless frames to start his career, Chandler has a lifetime ERA even better than Skenes’. Hey, in Pittsburgh you get your kicks where you can.
Win average: 64.5 (Last: 64.5, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Nationals’ never-ending rebuild feels stalled, perhaps even more so after another deadline of dealing veteran talent. Whether or not Washington got fair return in its deals is almost beside the point. When will it end? If the young foundational players were picking up momentum, it might feel different. But CJ Abrams, James Wood, Dylan Crews and Brady House are among those who have lagged since the All-Star break. If ever there was a franchise in need of a spark, it’s this one right now. The offense has been brutal, but the pitching, especially the rotation, has been even worse. Sigh.
Win average: 59.6 (Last: 62.1, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The White Sox were playing pretty well at the time of the deadline, but the month since has not been kind. Still, the record is neither here nor there, it’s more about individual performances right now. And through that prism, there is plenty to like about Chicago’s direction. Kyle Teel has been a well-rounded force at the plate. Colson Montgomery has displayed explosive power. There’s more, but you get the idea. The downer is the possible season-ending injury to Luis Robert Jr., whose combined slash over the past two seasons is .223/.288/.372. Maybe this is just what he is now.
Win average: 45.9 (Last: 44.3, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: Colorado continues to lose games at a prodigious pace, but it’s a less frantic pace than earlier this season. Progress? Maybe not. During August, the Colorado rotation posted an ERA of 6.54 and allowed a .309/.381/.514 slash line. Before you start adjusting the rotation numbers for Coors Field, don’t bother. Those were the road numbers. The overall numbers can’t be published without a parental warning. One quest remains: Hunter Goodman‘s 2.7 bWAR places him third in Colorado history among primary catchers. The record is Chris Iannetta’s 3.2 in 2008. Setting any kind of positive record amid this mess would be something.
A number of teams are starting to shift their focus to October as the final month of the 2025 MLB regular season begins.
The Detroit Tigers are pretty much a postseason lock with a whopping lead in the the AL Central, and the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers are comfortably sitting atop their respective divisions.
Beyond division races, there are many storylines to watch as the regular season comes to an end and playoffs begin: Where do current playoff matchups stand? What games should you be paying attention to each day leading up to October? Who will be the first team to clinch a postseason berth? And what does the playoff schedule look like?
We have everything you need to know as the regular season hits the homestretch.
Key links: Full MLB standings | Wild-card standings
Who can clinch a playoff spot next?
The Tigers, Phillies, Brewers, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres all have at least a 99% chance of making the postseason entering the final month of the MLB season.
What are this October’s MLB playoff matchups as it stands now?
American League
Wild-card round: (6) Mariners at (3) Astros, (5) Red Sox at (4) Yankees
ALDS: Mariners/Astros vs. (2) Tigers, Red Sox/Yankees vs. (1) Blue Jays
National League
Wild-card round: (6) Mets at (3) Dodgers, (5) Padres at (4) Cubs
NLDS: Mets/Dodgers vs. (2) Phillies, Padres/Cubs vs. (1) Brewers
Breaking down the AL race
The Blue Jays and Tigers enter the homestretch battling for the AL’s No. 1 seed, with Detroit all but a lock for the AL Central crown. While Toronto sits atop the AL East, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are duking it out for wild-card seeding. And, in what seems to be a yearly September occurrence, the Houston Astros are attempting to separate themselves from the Seattle Mariners in a two-team AL West race.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Breaking down the NL race
Five teams have separated themselves atop the NL standings with the New York Mets trying to keep a comfortable lead over the Cincinnati Reds for the final playoff spot. The Phillies and Brewers are seemingly cruising to division titles, but there is plenty of intrigue in the NL West as the Dodgers attempt to fend off the Padres for the division crown.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Game of the day
Looking for something to watch today? Here’s the baseball game with the biggest playoff implications:
Playoff schedule
Wild-card series
Best of three, all games at better seed’s stadium
Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 30
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 1
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 2*
Division series
Best of five
ALDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 5
Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 7
Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 8*
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 10*
NLDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 6
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 8
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 9*
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 11*
League championship series
Best of seven
ALCS
Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 12
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 15
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 17*
Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 19*
Game 7: Monday, Oct. 20*
NLCS
Game 1: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 14
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 4: Friday, Oct. 17
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 18*
Game 6: Monday, Oct. 20*
Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 21*
World Series
Best of seven
Game 1: Friday, Oct. 24
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 25
Game 3: Monday, Oct. 27
Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 28
Game 5: Wednesday, Oct. 29*
Game 6: Friday, Oct. 31*
Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 1*
* If necessary
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