In a season littered with unlikely twists, in a sport defined of late by overwhelming change, it’s nice to know some things remain as steadfastly certain as the morning sunrise.

Well, unless you’re a Penn State fan.

On the surface, we had a top-five showdown of Big Ten powers to headline Week 10, but it hardly felt like the Penn State-Ohio State matchups of old. This is, of course, a new-look Big Ten, and Ohio State had already suffered the consequences of expansion three weeks ago in a narrow loss to Oregon, as Will Howard slid too late and the clock ran out on any comeback bid. The Buckeyes arrived in Happy Valley as a case study in modern college football economics, too, sporting a roster valued at roughly the gross domestic product of Luxembourg. Penn State, too, was billed as a new-look version of its former self, one bolstered by a more creative offense led by new coordinator and Dairy Queen enthusiast Andy Kotelnicki, who promised to avoid the same malaise that had dogged the program in so many prior top-10 matchups and offer, instead, the occasional open receiver.

And yet, what we got — an erratic, exhilarating, physical 20-13 Ohio State win — looked just like old times, for better and for worse.

Never mind that the offensive line was patched together with duct tape and popsicle sticks, like some sort of HGTV rehab project property owners can’t wait to flip. The front still won every consequential battle in the trenches, turning third-and-short into a near automatic first down again and again, devouring clock like it was Halloween candy, including an 11-play drive that began at the Buckeyes’ 1 and soaked up the final 5:13 and included two critical third-and-short conversions. The defense, meanwhile, utterly flummoxed Penn State yet again, taking away any threat of a downfield attack and stonewalling the Nittany Lions at the goal line twice, including on four straight plays from inside the 3 late in the fourth quarter.

When Penn State hired Kotelnicki this offseason, it was with the expressed purpose of scripting a new game plan for exactly this moment. Again and again under James Franklin, the Lions have come up short against the top teams in the Big Ten, including, now, a 1-10 record against Ohio State. In Greek mythology, Sisyphus is punished by the gods for tormenting guests to his kingdom, doomed to a life pushing a boulder up a hill, only to see it roll back down the other side, on through eternity. It would be an apt analogy for Franklin’s career at Penn State, except the Nittany Lions are always so welcoming when Ohio State or Michigan come to town. The only explanation is that this is punishment for making Vanderbilt good in the 2010s, and someone should tell Clark Lea to cool it before he ends up going 9-3 at USC for a decade straight.

For Day, this wasn’t the ultimate referendum on what has been a spectacular, though incomplete, résumé at Ohio State, but it was a needed win after the stumble at Oregon. His success is not measured by mere victories, but in how many of the tallest mountains he has scaled, and while Penn State is hardly his Everest, it wasn’t a face-plant down a flight of stairs either.

It was a game between two quarterbacks who grew up dreaming of playing on the opposite sideline — Ohio native Drew Allar for the Lions against Pennsylvania native Will Howard for the Buckeyes. Of course, all residents of Ohio and Pennsylvania ultimately hope to move to a condo in Boca Raton, but these guys at least hoped to stay close to home for college. Neither was spectacular Saturday, and each threw a critical interception — Allar’s on a wacky play at the back of the end zone and Howard’s on a brutal pick-six throw that begged for the losing-contestant jingle from “The Price is Right” to be played over any subsequent replays — but it was Howard who prevailed and, like in the Oregon game, scrambled and slid late to run out the clock. This time, a celebration followed the final ticks.

It was a game that, at least in practical terms, meant little for the Big Ten race or the College Football Playoff. Oregon and Indiana are now the league’s lone undefeated teams, but Ohio State and Penn State still seem all but certain to land a bid in the playoff. And yet, each yard Saturday felt important, each play a chapter in an epic tome about two coaches hoping to avoid another pitfall and two teams looking to prove something significant — to themselves as much as to the rest of the college football world.

Perhaps that’s the real takeaway from Ohio State’s performance Saturday. Yes, it felt in some ways like a cut-and-paste to games past, when the Buckeyes enforced their will and the Nittany Lions fought against the impending darkness; when Day proved once again why he’s Ohio State’s best chance at a national title and Franklin shoved that boulder a few more inches up the hill, knowing full well the abyss that awaited on the other side. It’s a movie we’ve seen before, but it’s always nice to rewatch the classics.

Jump to:
Five unbeatens left | Texas A&M gets trapped | Miami throttles Duke
Throwing Darts | Pavia 3-0 vs. Freeze | Georgia holds off Florida
Vibe shifts | Playoff check-in |Heisman five | Under the radar

And then there were five

Iowa State and Pitt both went down in Week 10, leaving just five remaining unbeaten teams in FBS.

The Cyclones had lived much of the season like your buddy who you leave broke at the casino only to find him at the breakfast buffet the next morning with a mile-high stack of waffles and a fistful of hundreds. On Saturday, their luck finally came to an end against Texas Tech. Rocco Becht led a touchdown drive to take a 22-17 lead with 2:11 to play, but the Red Raiders wouldn’t go away, marching 71 yards in 1:47 to pull out the 23-22 win.

Pitt enjoyed no such drama. The Panthers’ trip to SMU was an unmitigated disaster, with the ground game stifled, Eli Holstein struggling, and not a single barbecue spot in Dallas that would put French fries on a brisket sandwich. Brashard Smith was the star of the game, carrying 23 times for 161 yards and two touchdowns in the 48-25 win.

With those two losses, Oregon, BYU, Miami, Army and Indiana are the last remaining teams without a defeat.

Army upended Air Force 20-3 on Saturday, despite playing without QB Bryson Daily. Instead, the Black Knights relied on tailback Kanye Udoh, who carried 22 times for 158 yards and two scores. Army still has not trailed in a game this season.

Indiana entered Week 10 without playing from behind either, but Michigan State jumped out to a 10-0 lead at the end of the first quarter. But Kurtis Rourke decided to start trying in the second quarter, and things got ugly from there. Rourke finished with 263 yards passing and four touchdowns and the Hoosiers rolled to a 47-10 win. Indiana is 8-0 an is winning by an average of 33 points per game.

---

Week 9 ended with Texas A&M establishing itself as a frontrunner to make the SEC title game. Week 10 ended with the Aggies pancaked against a brick wall named LaNorris Sellers.

The Aggies defense got to Sellers often, but routinely bounced off the South Carolina QB like a toddler running into blimp, and the Gamecocks turned those frustrations into a chorus of big plays. South Carolina didn’t allow a sack, ran for 286 yards — including 106 from Sellers — and ran away with a 44-20 win.

Marcel Reed, who torched LSU last week with his legs, rushed for just 46 yards in the game, and the defense surrendered 530 yards to the Gamecocks — 101 more than it had allowed in a game all year.

The result left Aggies fans stunned, trying desperately to figure out how this was Jimbo Fisher’s fault, while Shane Beamer now has the Gamecocks at 5-3 and all but assured a bowl bid with FCS Wofford still on the slate.

---

Miami mauls Manny

With 13:51 to play in the game, Duke kicked a field goal to pull to within 1 of Miami. Eight minutes of game time later, the Canes were up 53-31, marking the second-most unpleasant thing Miami has done to Manny Diaz in the past three years.

Diaz, who coached at Miami, first as a defensive coordinator and then as head coach, from 2016-2021, made his return to South Florida with his 6-2 Duke team and, for three quarters at least, put up a good fight.

The problem? Cam Ward is a magician.

Just some more Cam Ward magic for your timeline 🪄

📺: ABC #GoCanes | #HE1SMAN pic.twitter.com/OpPUUF7iQX

— Miami Hurricanes Football (@CanesFootball) November 2, 2024

Ultimately, Ward threw for 400 yards and five touchdowns, pulled a live rabbit out of his helmet and sawed Mario Cristobal in half.

Miami’s defense continues to be a concern, however. The Canes allowed 325 yards passing to Maalik Murphy, but also picked him off three times to escape trouble. That they didn’t break out the turnover chain after each one to taunt their former coach did feel like a missed opportunity though.

---

Throwing Darts

For much of the season, Ole Miss had been the chief culprit in using fake injuries to gain an advantage in games, but last week, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey sent a letter to schools alerting them the practice must stop immediate or there would be fines and, possibly, suspensions. And yet, not even that warning could stop Arkansas‘ defense from rolling over and playing dead on Saturday.

Jaxson Dart threw for 515 yards and six touchdowns in Ole Miss’s rollicking 63-31 win, becoming the first SEC player ever with six TDs, no picks and more than 500 passing yards, according to ESPN Research. The bulk of Dart’s production was shared with receiver Jordan Watkins, who hauled in eight catches for 254 yards and five touchdowns.

After the game, Lane Kiffin praised his team’s emphatic performance and warned Sam Pittman to avoid any airport tarmacs for a few days.

---

Pavia’s sweet home

Diego Pavia threw for two touchdowns as Vanderbilt upended Auburn 17-7 on Saturday, Pavia’s third win in as many years against Tigers’ head coach Hugh Freeze.

At New Mexico State in 2022, Pavia was a 23-point underdog against Freeze’s Liberty and won 49-14. In 2023, Pavia led the Aggies into Auburn, where Freeze had taken over as head coach, as a 25-point underdog and walked out with a 31-10 win. Then Saturday, Vandy was an 8.5-point underdog at Auburn and won again. Aside from Houston Nutt’s lawyers, no one has caused more damage to Freeze’s career than Pavia.

Pavia is also now 3-0 career against teams from the state of Alabama, and he became just the 13th QB in the past 20 years to pick up wins against Auburn and the Tide in the same season, joining stars like Joe Burrow, Johnny Manziel and Matthew Stafford and somehow also Mitch Mustain.

Vandy is now bowl eligible for the first time since 2018 and has won four SEC games for the first time since 2013, when James Franklin was head coach. So, at least Franklin is being mentioned in something positive today.

---

It’d be easy enough to come away from Saturday’s latest installment of the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party wondering what’s wrong with Georgia. Certainly the offense has sputtered at times, and Carson Beck once again threw three picks, bringing his season tally to 11. The lackluster performance against Florida follows similar games against Kentucky and Mississippi State, along with a first half against Alabama so dismal it cost the Dawgs the game.

But the most logical explanation is Georgia wanted to toy with Billy Napier.

With a little more than 4 minutes to play, Florida was tied with Georgia at 20, and Napier was poised to save his job.

The Gators were riddled with injuries, losing QB DJ Lagway with a hamstring issue, and were forced to survive with a number of backups and a few of the guys working for the moving company who were packing up Napier’s stuff in anticipation of a blowout loss. It wasn’t always pretty.

Still, Florida kept hanging around. But this is how Georgia rolls. It toys with teams, gives them a false sense of confidence, then sneaks up behind them and pulls their underwear up over their head.

After Florida tied the game, Georgia engineered a 75-yard touchdown drive, picked off QB Aidan Warner one play later, then scored again to turn the close game into a blowout.

---

Week 10 vibe shifts

Each week, the college football landscape is reordered by surprising outcomes in big games. But many smaller shifts take place, too. We track them here.

Trending down: Big 12 preseason favorites

In the preseason Big 12 media poll, the top five were Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Arizona.

At least K-State looks good.

It’s been a nightmare for the rest of the group, including Arizona’s 56-12 dismantling by UCF and Oklahoma State’s 42-21 loss to Arizona State on Saturday.

Along with Kansas and Utah, those four teams are now a combined 12-22 overall and just 3-18 in Big 12 play.

Trending down: Love for Lincoln

The Lincoln Riley-USC relationship appears to be destined to end in tragedy.

Miller Moss threw three picks, and USC lost for the fifth time in its past seven games, falling to Washington 26-21 on Saturday. The Trojans are now 4-5 overall and 2-5 in Big Ten play. Worse, USC is now 5-11 in its last 16 overall after Riley opened his tenure there by winning 17 of his first 20.

The remainder of the schedule — vs. Nebraska, at UCLA and hosting Notre Dame — makes a bowl bid a possibility but far from a certainty.

Riley has already cut off practice access to the media and he has cut back on player interviews, too. His next move is to cut back on players’ screen time, have the media report all stories via Morse code and cancel Moss’s birthday party. Sure, the deposit on the clown is non-refundable, but drastic times call for drastic measures.

Trending up: Points for Iowa

Iowa trounced Wisconsin 42-10 on Saturday, crossing an unlikely threshold in the process.

Iowa has now scored 40+ points in a game 4 times in 2024.

It’s the 1st time since 2016 the Hawkeyes have scored 40+ points in 4 games in a year.

It’s also the 1st time since 2011 Iowa has scored 40+ points in 3 straight homes games.

Offensive explosion. pic.twitter.com/JTJFW05fdj

— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) November 3, 2024

Iowa has now scored 277 points this year, or one-and-a-half Brian Ferentzes, if you’re keeping track at home. More troubling, the Hawkeyes are averaging just four punts per game, which may be a violation of the Geneva Convention.

It should be noted, however, that Iowa has scored 111 more points through nine games than it did last year, but it has lost one more game than it had at this point last season. So let that be a lesson to you, Florida State. Be careful wishing for too much offense.

Trending up: Oklahoma‘s offense

Here’s a fun fact: Oklahoma has averaged 36.5 points per game over its past two. Now, please don’t dig any deeper into that statistic.

The Sooners got 203 yards and three touchdowns from Jovantae Barnes, while QB Jackson Arnold threw two touchdowns and went the entire game without splitting his pants or falling asleep in the huddle. In other words, it was an incredibly good day for Oklahoma’s offense. Yes, it was against Maine, which is technically an FCS team, but there are only roughly 45 people who live in Maine, so we assume at least half its defense is just moose and bears, which can’t be easy to run against.

Trending up: Boat rowing

After an ugly 2-3 start to the season, PJ Fleck has the Golden Gophers riding high. Minnesota knocked off No. 24 Illinois — its second ranked win in four weeks — 25-17 behind 131 yards and a touchdown from tailback Darius Taylor.

Minnesota lost on a late missed kick in the opener against North Carolina and lost by 3 to Michigan in a game it allowed just 241 yards early in the year, but the Gophers have rebounded by winning four straight and now look like the clear-cut No. 5 team in the Big Ten, which is essentially the same as being the fifth-best member of Van Halen. Sure, most folks stop counting after Sammy Hagar, but nobody wants to be behind Gary Cherone.

Trending down: Nebraska‘s bowl hopes

The Huskers, once 5-1 and ranked in the top 25, have now lost three straight after falling 27-20 to lowly UCLA on Saturday.

Nebraska looked all but assured to make its first bowl game since 2016 this year, but suddenly the odds aren’t quite so good. This was the Huskers’ 36th one-possession loss since that last bowl game, seven more than any other FBS team and 13 more than the next Big Ten school.

The remaining slate — at USC, vs. Wisconsin and at Iowa — offers no easy wins, so it could be an uphill battle to snatch victory No. 6. On the plus side for Nebraska, no one there expects good things to happen to them anymore anyway.

Trending down: FSU’s bragging rights

A quick refresher on Florida State‘s season: The Noles opened No. 10 nationally, lost in Ireland to Georgia Tech, lost later to Mike Norvell’s former school, lost badly to rival Miami and lost for the first time in program history to Duke.

But at least there was still some positive history on FSU’s side Saturday, as Mack Brown and North Carolina came to town. Brown is an FSU alum, but he has never beaten his alma mater, and certainly the Seminoles would be motivated to keep that streak alive and — sorry, we’re being told Omarion Hampton just scored again.

Indeed, Hampton and the Heels romped, 35-11, handing Brown his first win against Florida State in 12 chances as a head coach dating back to 1985. Next, Florida State plans to announce that “Smokey and the Bandit II” wasn’t really that good, thus flushing yet another piece of its rich history down the drain.

No matter how many times we’ve assumed they’ve hit rock bottom, these Noles just keep digging. You really have to admire their determination.

---

Taking the temperature of the top 12

On Tuesday, we get our first College Football Playoff rankings. To prep you for this big event, let’s take a deep dive into the biggest questions facing the committee as it meets in its secret lair behind Greg Sankey’s pool house this week.

Is Oregon the clear-cut No. 1?

At this point, it seems tough to argue. Oregon is simply demoralizing opponents, as it did to Michigan on Saturday, 38-17. Of course, Michigan has been demoralized plenty lately. The Wolverines QB carousel continued against the Ducks, with Davis Warren and Alex Orji subbing in and out, and neither finding much of a rhythm. This comes a week after former starter Jack Tuttle medically retired and several other members of the depth chart started a commune in Nicaragua in hopes of living off the grid.

The only real competition for the top spot might come from Georgia, whose lone loss came to Alabama in a game in which the Dawgs also erased a 28-point deficit. Still, the lackluster performance against Florida in Week 10 didn’t provide much evidence the committee should overlook Oregon, even if Georgia’s supposed struggles are really all part of Kirby Smart’s diabolical plan to convince his team no one believes in them, thus motivating them to crush everyone in sight once the playoff starts. In fairness, his last scheme to sink most of eastern Georgia into the ocean so he can have beachfront property in Athens was mostly lifted from “Superman,” and it didn’t work for Lex Luthor either.

Should Boise State be a top-four seed?

The new 12-team playoff awards opening-round byes for the top four conference champions, and at this point, it might be fair to ask if Boise State could eclipse the winner of the Big 12.

The Broncos’ lone loss came by 3 points to No. 1 Oregon in a game that came down to a go-ahead field goal as time expired. Boise State features, arguably, the best player in the country in Ashton Jeanty, and it demolished San Diego State, 56-24, on Friday in spite of a relatively lackluster performance from the star back. Boise State also has solid (if unranked) wins against Washington State (6-1) and UNLV (5-2).

Of course, the more appealing option might be for Boise State to finish somewhere in the No. 5 through 8 range because nothing would ring in this new era of the 12-team playoff better than playing the first game on the blue turf.

What do we make of the SEC?

Every team in the league has at least one conference loss now. Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M and Ole Miss all have multiple losses. Georgia has scuffled regularly, Tennessee has flirted with disaster in multiple games as it struggles to find a consistent passing game, and Texas has been startlingly bereft of Arch Manning snaps of late.

Saturday’s slate only reinforced the concerns. The Aggies still are searching for an offensive identity. Kentucky benched starting QB Brock Vandagriff, who now will return to his full-time job as a roadie for Ted Nugent, but still were within striking distance until late in the forth quarter against the up-and-down Vols. Georgia may be the best team in the country, but it only plays like it for about six minutes per game, and Ole Miss is ridiculously explosive but also entirely erratic.

In other words, the SEC is basically just the old Pac-12, only without the shame or consequences.

So, is the SEC still a four-bid league? It’s getting tougher to see four championship-caliber teams here, but that’s the joy of a 12-team playoff. Half of those teams probably never had a shot at winning it all anyway.

Is the ACC a two-bid league?

Miami has taken care of business so far this season, in spite of a secondary that’s mostly involved asking politely for receivers not to catch the football. With games at Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and at Syracuse remaining, the Canes still look like an obvious playoff team, barring a remarkable collapse, which would almost certainly be overturned by ACC officials anyway.

But could the ACC be in line for a second playoff team, too?

Clemson looked the part after roughing up six straight bad teams — none ranked in the top 70 of ESPN’s FPI — but Louisville put a wrinkle in those plans Saturday. The Tigers sleepwalked through the first three quarters, and the Cardinals romped to a 33-21 win.

Dabo Swinney, ever the optimist, followed the loss by wanting to focus on the positives, such as the fact that none of his players were mauled by sharks, and he has some takeout from Smoking Pig in the fridge when he gets home.

SMU now looks like the clear-cut No. 2 in the league after demolishing previously undefeated Pitt. The Mustangs lone loss came by three against undefeated BYU in a game when they had the ball inside the Cougars’ 30 six times and managed just nine points. They’ll face Boston College, visit Virginia and host Cal before the season ends, with an inside track on an ACC title game appearance.

So, would Miami and SMU both be in if they win out? Could a 10-2 Clemson be in the mix, too?

Sankey would like to counter this notion by doubling over in laughter before dismissively asking, “Oh, were you serious about that?”

Where does the Big 12 fit in?

Iowa State’s loss leaves BYU as the frontrunner, but the rest of the league is a mess of possibilities. The Cyclones and Colorado are each 4-1 in conference, though the tie-breaker rule that prioritizes Instagram likes would seem to favor the Buffaloes. Kansas State and Texas Tech are both 4-2 in conference play, and four other teams still have two or fewer league losses, setting up a potential for chaos and — should one of those less-than-ideal teams manage to win the Big 12 title game — possibly knock the league out of a top four seed.

Ultimately, there’s a simple enough solution here: The committee should enforce the “2023 Florida State doctrine” and simply give Colorado the ACC’s spot in the playoff regardless, because TV ratings are what keeps the committee’s meeting room stocked with Cuban cigars, French champagne and all the Mountain Dew Baja Blast Jim Grobe can drink.

Will there be any surprises?

We’ve been pretty certain what the playoff will look like all along: Five conference champs, at least five wild cards from the SEC and Big Ten, Notre Dame snags its bid, and one more wild card comes from either the ACC or Big 12.

But, what if Washington State gets into the mix? The Cougars are 7-1 and will be favored in each of their last four. Could they sneak into the top 12 if they keep winning? Or how about Army? The Black Knights get Notre Dame in three weeks in a game that could send shockwaves through the playoff. And then there’s Kentucky. The Wildcats are just 3-6, but with all six Ls coming in SEC play, no one has more quality losses, which we know the committee loves.

---

Heisman five

The favorites held serve in the Heisman race this week, and it’s increasingly looking like a four-man race, but we’d nevertheless like to offer some Heisman love to Duke offensive lineman Micah Sahakian for providing us with the best chyron of the season.

pic.twitter.com/jgDH1spQ4F

— Sickos Committee (@SickosCommittee) November 2, 2024

1. Miami QB Cam Ward

Believe it or not, Saturday’s win over Duke was Ward’s first time this season with at least 400 yards passing and four touchdowns. He had 400 yards twice before, and this was his fourth time with at least four touchdown passes, but they had never overlapped in the same game. This was basically Ward’s KFC Double Down game, where the big plays are both the bread and the meat.

2. Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty

On Friday, San Diego State’s defensive scheme basically amounted to putting eight players, a set of road flairs and a few of those inflatable waving-arm guys in the box to stop Jeanty at any cost. Turns out, the cost was QB Maddux Madsen throwing for 307 yards and four touchdowns in a 56-24 win. Oh, and Jeanty still had 149 yards rushing (plus 31 receiving) and two touchdowns.

3. Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter

Colorado was off in Week 10, which begs the question of why anyone even bothered to watch games. Still, Hunter remains the most dynamic player in the country, playing 858 snaps already this year despite missing the better part of two games and having to constantly fend off DJ Khaled on the sideline constantly pushing for them to leave the game early and hit up White Castle.

4. Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel

Gabriel threw for a touchdown and ran for another in Oregon’s 38-17 win over Michigan, but honestly, it’s really not even fun to watch the Ducks demolish opponents anymore. Gabriel and tailback Jordan James should have to tie their legs together before each snap like some sort of potato sack race just to make Oregon’s games more interesting.

5. Spot reserved for Army QB Bryson Daily

Daily missed Army’s 20-3 win over Air Force with an undisclosed injury. Or perhaps he was on a top-secret mission to infiltrate a top military target, or battling Hugo Drax’s henchmen on an international space station before they wipe out humanity. Either way, we hope he’s back soon.

---

Under-the-radar play of the week

Louisiana-Monroe‘s hot start has come to a screeching halt, with the Warhawks dropping back-to-back games, including Saturday’s 28-23 defeat at the hands of Marshall.

Perhaps the symbolic low point for ULM came just ahead of a fourth-and-1 play with 11:43 to go in the third, when offensive lineman Drew Hutchinson offhandedly suggested that Taylor Swift’s “Tortured Poet’s Department” was meandering and self-indulgent, to which O-line coach Cameron Blankenship strongly disagreed.

In fairness, you really shouldn’t mess with Swifties.

---

Under-the-radar game of the week

Baylor rallied from down 7 in the fourth quarter, blew a 7-point lead with less than 2 minutes to play, then beat TCU 37-34 on a 33-yard field goal as time expired.

The win came 10 years after Baylor also beat TCU by 3 in a game that ultimately kept both teams out of the inaugural College Football Playoff, opening the door for Ohio State to win it all in 2014.

The stakes were a bit lower for this one, but the Bears are now in need of just one win in their past three — at West Virginia, at Houston, home to Kansas — to earn a bowl bid and possibly save Dave Aranda’s job.

For TCU, however, the loss is yet another bit of frustrating in a season chock full of it, and it’s the second loss of the year on a field goal inside of a minute to play. It’s also TCU’s sixth one-possession loss since going to the national title game in 2022. Regression to the mean is not pleasant.