While Nvidia’s spectacular surge remains the biggest story in the technology industry, the AI chipmaker’s performance on the market has been dwarfed this year by a digital advertising company with a specialty in gaming.
AppLovin has soared 310% in 2024, beating every U.S. tech company with a market cap of at least $5 billion, according to FactSet data. Nvidia, which has led the artificial intelligence boom and become the world’s second-most valuable public company, is up 173% this year.
Founded 12 years ago, AppLovin went public in 2021, riding a Covid-era wave of excitement in online games. Now, the company’s games unit generates relatively slow growth, but its online ad business is bustling from advancements in AI that have improved ad targeting.
Great returns bring great expectations, and AppLovin has a lot to prove in its earnings report on Wednesday, as investors look for proof that the rally is warranted. In its third-quarter report, analysts are expecting revenue growth of 31% to $1.13 billion, according to LSEG, following two straight quarters of growth above 40%.
More than revenue, AppLovin has shown a massive increase in profit. Based on LSEG’s consensus, EPS is expected to more than triple to 92 cents, while analysts see operating income more than doubling to $424.2 million, according to FactSet.
AppLovin attributes much of its growth to its AI advertising engine called AXON, particularly since releasing the updated 2.0 version last year. The technology helps put more targeted ads on the mobile gaming apps the company owns, and works for other studios that license the software.
“AXON enhancements through ongoing self-learning and our dedicated development efforts have fueled robust business performance this quarter,” AppLovin said in its second-quarter shareholder letter in August. Revenue in the software business jumped 75% in the second quarter to $711 million, accounting for about two-thirds of total sales.
Analysts have gotten increasingly bullish.
Wells Fargo initiated AppLovin with the equivalent of a buy rating on Oct. 29, calling the company a share gainer. Analysts at BTIG lifted their price target last week to $202, the highest among firms tracked by FactSet. Oppenheimer, Stifel Nicolaus and Jefferies also raised their targets in October.
According to analysts at Wedbush, the ad opportunity in the mobile gaming industry will grow from $10 billion today to $50 billion over the next decade.
“Investors have bought into the story, driving APP shares to all-time highs, and we think that the rally is warranted,” Wedbush analysts wrote in a note on Oct. 11. They said the company’s “real opportunity” is to catch the influx in brand advertising towards mobile gaming from more conventional channels like social media or legacy broadcasting.
Because of its position in digital advertising, AppLovin faces potential competition from some of the most well-capitalized companies on the planet. In its latest annual filing, AppLovin named Google, Amazon and Facebook as competitors. The company also relies on a small set of mobile platforms, most notably from Apple and Google, for distribution.
AppLovin didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Among the biggest financial beneficiaries of AppLovin’s historic rally is founder and CEO Adam Foroughi, whose stake has soared to about $5 billion in value.
Things could’ve turned out very differently.
In September 2016, several years before the IPO, Foroughi agreed to sell a majority stake in AppLovin to Chinese investment firm Orient Hontai Capital in a deal valued at $1.4 billion. The transaction never materialized as the agreement came at a time when the U.S. government was clamping down on Chinese involvement in the domestic tech sector.
More recently, AppLovin was supposed to be on the other side of a deal that ultimately got scuttled. In 2022, AppLovin gave up on efforts to buy gaming software developer Unity Software for $20 billion, after Unity shareholders rejected the bid.
Unity has since struggled mightily, losing more than half its value. Over that same stretch, AppLovin’s market cap has ballooned by almost sixfold.
The price of the second largest cryptocurrency rose as high as $4,954.81 on Sunday afternoon. It was last higher by less than 1% at $4,776.46.
Meanwhile, bitcoin at one point erased all the gains from its Friday rally, falling as low as $110,779.01, its lowest level since July 10. It was last trading lower by nearly 2% at about $112,000. The flagship cryptocurrency hit its most recent record of $124,496 on Aug. 13.
Stock Chart IconStock chart icon
Ether (ETH) and bitcoin (BTC)
On Friday, crypto rocketed with the broader market after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at upcoming rate cuts and investors returned to risk-on mode. Ether surged 15% and bitcoin gained 4%.
Ether, rather than bitcoin, has been leading the crypto marker for several weeks thanks to regulatory tailwinds, a boom in interest in stablecoins and buying en masse by a new cohort of corporate ether accumulators. On Saturday, Bitmine Immersion Technologies, the ether treasury company chaired by Wall Street bull Tom Lee, bought $45 million of ether, according to crypto data provider Arkham.
That shift in leadership has helped sustain ETH, which has sustained the $4,000 level this month after unsuccessfully testing the resistance mark a handful of times since 2021.
“The buyers are finally bigger than the sellers,” said Ben Kurland, CEO at crypto research platform DYOR. “ETH ETFs are drawing steady inflows, and public companies are beginning to treat ETH as a treasury asset they can stake for yield — a stickier form of demand than retail speculation.”
“Additionally, nearly a third of supply is locked in staking, scaling solutions are mature and, with rate cuts back on the table, the cost of capital is falling,” he added. “Those forces turned $4,000 from a resistance level into a foundation for re-pricing ETH’s next chapter.”
Don’t miss these cryptocurrency insights from CNBC Pro:
SpaceX is valued at around $400 billion and is critical for U.S. space access, but it wasn’t always the powerhouse that it is today.
Elon Musk founded SpaceX in 2002. Using money that he made from the sale of PayPal, Musk and his new company developed their first rocket, the Falcon 1, to challenge existing launch providers.
“There were actually a lot of startup aerospace companies looking to take on this market. They recognized we had a monopoly provider called United Launch Alliance. They had merged the Boeing and Lockheed rocket launch capacity to one company, and they were charging the government hundreds of millions of dollars to launch satellites,” said Lori Garver, a former deputy administrator at NASA.
In 2003, Musk paraded Falcon 1 around the streets of Washington hoping to attract the attention of government agencies and the multi-million dollar contracts that they offered. It worked, and in 2004, SpaceX secured a few million dollars from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, and the U.S. Air Force to further develop its rockets.
Despite the government support, the company struggled. Its first three launches of the Falcon 1 failed to reach orbit.
“NASA, and specifically the the initial commercial cargo contract, is what saved the company when it was on the brink of bankruptcy,” said Chris Quilty, president and Co-CEO of Quilty Space, a space-focused research firm.
NASA awarded the $1.6 billion contract, known as Commercial Resupply Services to SpaceX in 2008, just months after the first successful flight of the Falcon 1. The contract called on SpaceX to use its new rocket, the Falcon 9, along with its Dragon capsule to ferry cargo and supplies to the International Space Station over the course of 12 missions. In 2014, SpaceX won another NASA contract worth $2.6 billion to develop and operate vehicles to ferry astronauts to and from the International Space Station.
Today, SpaceX dominates large parts of the space market from launch to satellites. In 2024, SpaceX conducted a record-breaking 134 orbital launches, more than double the amount of launches done by the next most prolific launch provider, the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, according to science and technology consulting firm BryceTech. These 134 launches accounted for 83% of all spacecraft launched last year. According to a July report by Bloomberg, SpaceX was valued at $400 billion.
SpaceX’s Dragon capsule and Falcon 9 rocket are the primary means by which NASA launches astronauts and supplies to the International Space Station. The company’s Starlink satellites have become indispensable for providing internet access to remote areas as well as to U.S. allies during wartime. The company’s Starship rocket, though still in testing, is also key to the U.S. plan to return to the moon. SpaceX is also building a network of spy satellites for the U.S. government called Starshield as part of a $1.8 billion contract. Even competitors including Amazon and OneWeb have launched their satellites on SpaceX rockets.
“The ecosystem of space is changed by, really it’s SpaceX,” Garver said. “The lower cost of access to space is doing what we had dreamed of. It is built up a whole community of companies around the world that now have access to space.”
Sanjay Beri, chief executive officer and founder of Netskope Inc., listens during a Bloomberg West television interview in San Francisco, California.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Cloud security platform Netskope will go public on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “NTSK,” the company said in an initial public offering filing Friday.
The Santa Clara, California-based company said annual recurring revenue grew 33% to $707 million, while revenues jumped 31% to about $328 million in the first half of the year.
But Netskope isn’t profitable yet. The company recorded a $170 million net loss during the first half of the year. That narrowed from a $207 million loss a year ago.
Netskope joins an increasing number of technology companies adding momentum to the surge in IPO activity after high inflation and interest rates effectively killed the market.
So far this year, design software firm Figma more than tripled in its New York Stock Exchange debut, while crypto firm Circle soared 168% in its first trading day. CoreWeave has also popped since its IPO, while trading app eToro surged 29% in its May debut.
Read more CNBC tech news
Netskope’s offering also coincides with a busy period for cybersecurity deals.
Founded in 2012, Netskope made a name for itself in its early years in the cloud access security broker space. The company lists Palo Alto Networks, Cisco, Zscaler, Broadcom and Fortinet as its major competitors.
Netskope’s biggest backers include Accel, Lightspeed Ventures and Iconiq, which recently benefited from Figma’s stellar debut.
Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan are leading the offering. Netskope listed 13 other Wall Street banks as underwriters.