Retail giants face food price hikes dilemma after budget
Two of Britain’s biggest food retailers will this week face pressure to publicly disclose whether they expect a fresh spike in prices next year as the industry grapples with huge tax hikes imposed in last week’s budget.
Sky News understands that Marks & Spencer (M&S), which will unveil half-year earnings on Wednesday, and J Sainsbury, which reports interim results the following day, are collectively facing an additional bill of close to £200m as a result of changes to employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) announced by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor.
Industry sources said the pressure on pricing would be “intense” given the thin margins on which the big supermarkets already operate.
“Food price increases from next April are inevitable,” said one.
The warning comes a day after Ms Reeves told Sky News that “businesses will now have to make a choice, whether they will absorb that through efficiency and productivity gains, whether it will be through lower profits or perhaps through lower wage growth”.
Pointedly, she did not highlight the prospect of higher prices at the tills, with some retailers now weighing whether to explicitly blame the government for impending price increases – a move which will trigger renewed inflation in the UK economy.
The grocery industry is expected to be among the hardest-hit by the changes to employer NICs, particularly after the chancellor slashed the threshold at which businesses become liable for it to just £5,000.
Tens of thousands of people employed part-time in the sector earn between that sum and the current threshold of £9,100.
The first major retailer to report financial results since the budget will be Primark’s parent, Associated British Foods (ABF), on Tuesday.
Insiders downplayed the risks of price hikes from Primark given its track record of absorbing inflationary pressures without passing them on to consumers.
ABF’s additional employer NICs bill is expected to be in the region of £25m, according to one analyst.
Overall, the retail sector could end up paying billions of pounds of additional tax given the scale of its workforce.
Ms Reeves has vowed to raise £25bn extra annually from the changes to employer NICs.
In addition to that, the rise in the national living wage will add a further burden to the financial pressures facing the retail industry.
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Prior to the budget, Stuart Machin, the M&S chief executive, urged the chancellor not to increase taxes on it, calling them “a short-term, easy fix”.
“When I hear about plans to increase national insurance, a tax with no link to profit which hits bigger employers like us and our smaller suppliers, I’m concerned.
“The chancellor was right in the past to call national insurance a tax on workers.”
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Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, will hold talks with British business leaders later on Monday about the impact of the budget.
A number of executives will be given the opportunity to ask questions on a call in which more than 100 companies are expected to be represented, although one boss who is critical of many of the budget measures said they were likely to be prevented from voicing their concerns publicly on the call.
ABF, M&S and Sainsbury’s all declined to comment.
Rachel Reeves has been urged by a think tank to cut national insurance and increase income tax to create a “level playing field” and protect workers’ pay.
The Resolution Foundation said the chancellor should send a “decisive signal” that she will make “tough decisions” on tax.
Ms Reeves is expected to outline significant tax rises in the upcoming budget in November.
The Resolution Foundation has suggested these changes should include a 2p cut to national insurance as well as a 2p rise in income tax, which Adam Corlett, its principal economist, said “should form part of wider efforts to level the playing field on tax”.
The think tank, which used to be headed by Torsten Bell, a Labour MP who is now a key aide to Ms Reeves and a pensions minister, said the move would help to address “unfairness” in the tax system.
As more people pay income tax than national insurance, including pensioners and landlords, the think tank estimates the switch would go some way in raising the £20bn in tax it thinks would be needed by 2029/2030 to offset increased borrowing costs, flat growth and new spending commitments. Other estimates go as high as £51bn.
Torsten Bell appearing on Sky News
‘Significant tax rises needed’
Another proposal by the think tank would see a gradual lowering of the threshold at which businesses pay VAT from £90,000 to £30,000, as this would help “promote fair competition” and raise £2bn by the end of the decade.
The Resolution Foundation also recommends increasing the tax on dividends, addressing a “worrying” growth in unpaid corporation tax from small businesses, applying a carbon charge to long-haul flights and shipping, and expanding taxation of sugar and salt.
“Policy U-turns, higher borrowing costs and lower productivity growth mean that the chancellor will need to act to avoid borrowing costs rising even further this autumn,” Mr Corlett said.
“Significant tax rises will be needed for the chancellor to send a clear signal that the UK’s public finances are under control.”
He added that while any tax rises are “likely to be painful”, Ms Reeves should do “all she can to avoid loading further pain onto workers’ pay packets”.
The government has repeatedly insisted it will keep its manifesto promise not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT.
A Treasury spokesperson said in response to the think tank report it does “not comment on speculation around future changes to tax policy”.
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Chancellor urged to freeze alcohol duty
Meanwhile, Ms Reeves has been urged to freeze alcohol duty in the upcoming budget and not increase the rate of excise tax on alcohol until the end of the current parliament.
The Scotch Whisky Association (SWA), UK Spirits Alliance, Welsh Whisky Association, English Whisky Guild and Drinks Ireland said in an open letter that the current regime was “unfair” and has put a “strain” on members who are “struggling”.
The bodies are also urging Ms Reeves “to ensure there will be no further widening of the tax differential between spirits and other alcohol categories”.
A Treasury spokesperson said there will be no export duty, lower licensing fees, reduced tariffs, and a cap on corporation tax to make it easier for British distilleries to thrive.
Leave retailers alone, Reeves told
This comes as the British Retail Consortium (BRC) warned that food inflation will rise and remain above 5% into next year if the retail industry is hit by further tax rises in the November budget.
The BRC voiced concerns that around 4,000 large shops could experience a rise in their business rates if they are included in the government’s new surtax for properties with a rateable value – an estimation of how much it would cost to rent a property for a year – over £500,000, and this could lead to price rises for consumers.
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Latest ONS figures put food inflation at 4.9%, the highest level since 2022/2023.
The Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged last week amid fears that rising food prices were putting mounting pressure on headline inflation.
“The biggest risk to food prices would be to include large shops – including supermarkets – in the new surtax on large properties,” BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said.
She added: “Removing all shops from the surtax can be done without any cost to the taxpayer, and would demonstrate the chancellor’s commitment to bring down inflation.”
Donald Trump has revealed that media mogul Rupert Murdoch and his son Lachlan could be part of a deal in which TikTok in the United States will come under American control.
The US president also namedropped Michael Dell, the founder and CEO of Dell Technologies, as a possible participant in the deal during an interview with Fox News, which is owned by the Murdochs.
“I think they’re going to be in the group. A couple of others. Really great people, very prominent people,” Mr Trump said. “And they’re also American patriots, you know, they love this country. I think they’re going to do a really good job.”
Mr Trump said that Larry Ellison, founder and CEO of software firm Oracle, was part of the same group. His involvement in the potential TikTok deal had previously been revealed.
President Donald Trump speaking to reporters outside the White House. Pic: AP/Mark Schiefelbein
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Saturday that Oracle would be responsible for the app’s data and security, with Americans set to control six of the seven seats for a planned TikTok board.
This comes after Mr Trump said he and China’s Xi Jinping held a “very productive call” on Friday, discussing the final approval for the TikTok deal, much of which is still unknown.
Once confirmed, the deal should stop TikTok from being banned in the US after lawmakers decided it posed a security risk to citizens’ data.
Officials warned that the algorithm TikTok uses is vulnerable to manipulation by Chinese authorities, who can use it to push specific content on the social media platform in a way that is difficult to detect.
Congress had ordered the app shut down for American users by January 2025 if its Chinese owner ByteDance didn’t sell its assets in the country – but the ban has been delayed four times by President Trump.
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Mr Trump said on Sunday that he might be “a little prejudiced” about TikTok, after telling reporters on Friday: “I wasn’t a fan of TikTok and then I got to use it and then I became a fan and it helped me win an election in a landslide.”
After the call with Mr Xi, Mr Trump said in a Truth Social post: “We made progress on many very important issues, including Trade, Fentanyl, the need to bring the War between Russia and Ukraine to an end, and the approval of the TikTok Deal.”
Mr Trump later told reporters at the White House that Xi had approved the deal, but said it still needed to be signed.
Representatives for the Murdochs, Mr Dell and Mr Ellison have not yet commented on a potential TikTok deal.
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