There’s fear in some quarters of another Donald Trump presidency but will the economics be that bad?
Not a single vote has been counted but the policies of a possible second Trump presidency have already influenced financial markets.
The cost of US and UK borrowing – measured through 10-year revenue-raising instruments called bonds – has been upped as traders eyed the price-rising impact a Trump presidency could have on the world’s biggest economy.
If Trump clinches victory could we see global economic repercussions?
A signature policy of his – tariffs – could make things worse for US consumers, in turn hurting the world economy of which the UK is a part.
Precise detail on what tariffs Trump would apply on what goods and from where remains to be seen. He’s said all goods coming into the country could be slapped with a 10% tax.
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Goods from China are going to be particularly hit with an anticipated 60% levy.
Why tariffs?
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The hope is that by making imports more expensive goods made in the US will be more competitive and comparatively cheaper. More people would buy those things and life would be better for US producers, the thinking goes.
If US producers are doing well, they’ll hire more people, Trump expects. He’s calculating that more people working for US companies doing well will make for a strong economy and happy voters.
Parts of America have been severely impacted by factory closures as companies move to parts of the world with cheaper wages and operating costs.
This accelerated since the 1990s when the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) made it easier and cheaper to export to the US, reducing the incentive to produce in the country.
Blue-collar workers, traditionally not college-educated, lost and continue to lose out majorly from plant closures. These are the voters Trump is targeting and who form his base of support.
It’s worth noting Trump isn’t the only fan of tariffs with the Biden administration implementing them on Chinese electric cars, solar panels, steel and aluminium as it sought to protect the investment it had made in such industries from cheap and heavily subsidised goods.
What will the effect be?
China, unsurprisingly, will be levied the highest and experience the greatest direct strike.
The hit will be “notably negative”, according to analysis from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), a leading thinktank.
It will face short-term pressures on manufacturing and trade with its gross domestic product (GDP) – the measure of everything produced in the country – to fall about 1% a year for two years, NIESR says.
Economists at Capital Economics quantify the cost at about a 0.5% to 0.7% reduction in GDP.
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7:56
UK should ‘expect’ Trump tarrifs
The US
That said the effects will be felt most keenly by those living in the US who will pay more.
If usually cheap imported goods get pricier that probably will cause the overall rate of inflation to rise.
Here the knock-on influences emerge. Higher inflation will just mean more expensive borrowing through upped interest rates as the US central bank, known as the Fed, will act to reduce inflation.
There’s no mystery around how high interest rates can weigh on an economy, the literal goal of hiked rates is to suppress buying power and to take money out of the economy.
Fears of the US ending up in recession spooked stock markets and triggered a global sell-off just three months ago.
Stock prices can seem nebulous but they impact the value of most people’s pensions.
A recession isn’t predicted but the US economy will falter, NIESR says.
Economic growth in America, as measured by GDP, would decrease by around 1.3 to 1.8 percentage points over the next two years, depending on whether the countries it trades with retaliate, upping their own duties on US goods.
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As tariffs make exporting less favourable exporters will simply export less, meaning less is produced and the worldwide economy slows.
The blow to the global economic output could be a 2% GDP drop after five years of Trump being in office, according to NIESR.
The consequences of Trump tariffs won’t just be short-term, NIESR forecasts, with global GDP still lower than it would have been without the imposition even in 15 years’ time.
Specific countries will be hit worse than others: Mexico and Canada for whom the US makes up roughly 80% and 50 % of trade, respectively will experience the greatest pain.
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It doesn’t look too bad for the European Union (EU) by comparison and could even be good for the bloc, some say.
NIESR reckons the euro area will be less badly affected than the UK over five years but the immediate impact will be worse.
The good news first: if Trump doesn’t lean too heavily into tariffs and focuses more on cutting taxes to grow the economy that bump could lead to stronger demand for European goods, notwithstanding import levies, suggests research from economic advisory firm Oxford Economics.
The bad news: it won’t look so good if the US economy turns bad through more aggressive policies like high tariffs on more goods, the firm says. That would mean a “large” fall in European exports, it adds.
And finally, some neutral news: not even high tariffs would be inflationary for the continent, Oxford Economics expects. Reduced demand and lower goods prices would just offset the higher import costs, it says.
Another firm, Capital Economics, also isn’t too concerned about the European economy under Trump.
“Smaller than many fear”, is how it described the suspected short-term macroeconomic consequences.
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2:22
How does the US election work?
What about the UK?
It’s got to be bad for the UK, right? The US is the country’s biggest trading partner after all, making up just under 20% of our trade
Again, not so. The UK doesn’t even make it into the top 10 worst-affected countries under NIESR’s research.
Capital Economics anticipates the knock would be small and maybe even positive, though inflation may be higher than if there were no second Trump administration.
But there’s no consensus on this point with NIESR forecasting GDP will be lower because of fewer exports and higher global interest rates.
This downturn would slow UK exports to other countries, NIESR says.
NIESR estimates UK GDP could be between 2.5% and 3% lower over five years and 0.7% lower in 2025. So instead of the 1.5% rate of GDP predicted by the IMF for next year, the economy would grow by 0.5%.
Business leaders expressed frustration with ministers on Monday amid a growing budget backlash that bosses said would trigger an “avalanche of costs” and leave them with no choice but to slash investment and increase prices.
Sky News has learnt that bosses of large retail and hospitality companies and trade associations told Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, that last week’s budget risked damaging consumer confidence and exacerbating challenges facing the UK economy.
Among the dozens of companies represented on the call are said to have been Burger King UK, Fuller Smith & Turner, Greene King, Kingfisher and the supermarket chain Morrisons.
Mr Reynolds is said to have acknowledged that Rachel Reeves‘s inaugural fiscal statement had “asked a lot” of British business, with James Murray, the financial secretary to the Treasury, understood to have described it as “a once-in-a-generation budget”, according to several people briefed on the call.
One insider said that Nick Mackenzie, the chief executive of Greene King, had highlighted that the increase in employers’ national insurance (NI) contributions would cause “a £20m shock” to the company, while Fullers is understood to have warned that it would be forced to halve annual investment from £60m to £30m as a result of increased cost pressures.
Rami Baitieh, the Morrisons chief executive, told Mr Reynolds that the budget had exacerbated “an avalanche of costs” for businesses next year, and asked what the government could do to mitigate them.
Sources added that the CBI, the employers’ group, said its impact would be “severe”, while the British Beer & Pub Association added that there was now a disincentive to invest and flagged “a tsunami” of higher costs.
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2:45
How will the budget affect businesses?
The range of comments on the call with ministers underlines the scale of discontent in the private sector about Labour’s first budget for nearly 15 years.
Only a small number of interventions during the discussion are said to have been in support of measures announced last week, with the Federation of Small Businesses understood to have praised the doubling of the employment allowance, which would see many of the smallest employers having their NI bills cut by £2,000.
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The Department for Business and Trade has been contacted for comment, while none of the companies contacted by Sky News would comment.
Two of Britain’s biggest food retailers will this week face pressure to publicly disclose whether they expect a fresh spike in prices next year as the industry grapples with huge tax hikes imposed in last week’s budget.
Sky News understands that Marks & Spencer (M&S), which will unveil half-year earnings on Wednesday, and J Sainsbury, which reports interim results the following day, are collectively facing an additional bill of close to £200m as a result of changes to employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) announced by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor.
Industry sources said the pressure on pricing would be “intense” given the thin margins on which the big supermarkets already operate.
“Food price increases from next April are inevitable,” said one.
The warning comes a day after Ms Reeves told Sky News that “businesses will now have to make a choice, whether they will absorb that through efficiency and productivity gains, whether it will be through lower profits or perhaps through lower wage growth”.
Pointedly, she did not highlight the prospect of higher prices at the tills, with some retailers now weighing whether to explicitly blame the government for impending price increases – a move which will trigger renewed inflation in the UK economy.
The grocery industry is expected to be among the hardest-hit by the changes to employer NICs, particularly after the chancellor slashed the threshold at which businesses become liable for it to just £5,000.
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Tens of thousands of people employed part-time in the sector earn between that sum and the current threshold of £9,100.
The first major retailer to report financial results since the budget will be Primark’s parent, Associated British Foods (ABF), on Tuesday.
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Insiders downplayed the risks of price hikes from Primark given its track record of absorbing inflationary pressures without passing them on to consumers.
ABF’s additional employer NICs bill is expected to be in the region of £25m, according to one analyst.
Overall, the retail sector could end up paying billions of pounds of additional tax given the scale of its workforce.
Ms Reeves has vowed to raise £25bn extra annually from the changes to employer NICs.
In addition to that, the rise in the national living wage will add a further burden to the financial pressures facing the retail industry.
Prior to the budget, Stuart Machin, the M&S chief executive, urged the chancellor not to increase taxes on it, calling them “a short-term, easy fix”.
“When I hear about plans to increase national insurance, a tax with no link to profit which hits bigger employers like us and our smaller suppliers, I’m concerned.
“The chancellor was right in the past to call national insurance a tax on workers.”
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Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, will hold talks with British business leaders later on Monday about the impact of the budget.
A number of executives will be given the opportunity to ask questions on a call in which more than 100 companies are expected to be represented, although one boss who is critical of many of the budget measures said they were likely to be prevented from voicing their concerns publicly on the call.
The former Conservative chancellor Nadhim Zahawi is in talks to smooth the path to a takeover of The Daily Telegraph being led by the New York-based media investor Dovid Efune.
Sky News has learnt that Mr Zahawi has been working for several weeks with LionTree, Mr Efune’s investment banking adviser, on the deal, which is expected to be worth in the region of £550m.
City sources said on Monday that Mr Efune, proprietor of the New York Sun, was exploring securing a portion of funding for the takeover from Sir Mohamed Mansour, the former Tory treasurer.
In September, Sky News revealed that Sir Mohamed had been approached to provide as much as £150m to a standalone bid for the Telegraph titles that was being spearheaded by Mr Zahawi.
Mr Efune subsequently secured a period of exclusivity to finalise a deal before the end of November, and is now lining up financial backers to help clinch the deal, aided by the former Tory chancellor.
If completed, the transaction will crystallise an unlikely profit for RedBird IMI, the Abu Dhabi-backed vehicle which paid £600m to acquire a call option that was intended to convert into ownership of the Telegraph newspapers and The Spectator magazine.
One source said that depending on the final structuring of the deal, it could be worth as much as £575m
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The Spectator was recently sold for £100m to Sir Paul Marshall, the hedge fund billionaire, who has installed Michael Gove, the former cabinet minister, as its editor.
Insiders said that Mr Zahawi was likely to be handed an ongoing role at the Telegraph if the bid from Mr Efune was successful.
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The former chancellor, education secretary and vaccines minister has been involved in the Telegraph process in various guises, initially helping broker a deal with RedBird IMI before assembling his own offer.
He has close connections to many of the Gulf-based figures involved in the process, including Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, chairman of the bidding vehicle.
Mr Zahawi has also since been named chairman of Very Group, the online retailer owned by the Barclay family which controlled the Telegraph for two decades, and which is now part-funded by IMI.
The UAE-based IMI, which is controlled by the UAE’s deputy prime minister and ultimate owner of Manchester City Football Club, Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, extended a further £600m to the Barclays to pay off a loan owed to Lloyds Banking Group, with the balance secured against other family assets.
Spokesmen for Mr Efune, Sir Mohamed and RedBird IMI all declined to comment on Monday, while Mr Zahawi could not be reached for comment.
The former minister has said little publicly about his interest in a role at the Telegraph, although he did tell Sky News presenter Sophy Ridge in September that it “would be an incredible honour for me, a real privilege if I were ever to… chair the Telegraph [or] be involved with [it]”.
Sir Mohamed, who has donated millions of pounds to the Tories, was knighted earlier this year – a move which was lambasted by critics of the honours system.
His family office, Man Capital, is the second-biggest shareholder in the coffee shop chain Caffe Nero, while he owns San Diego FC, a new Major League Soccer franchise which will make its debut next year.
The London-based billionaire was the Tories’ senior treasurer from late 2022 until this year’s general election.
Mr Efune’s bid has raised the extraordinary possibility of a return to the British newspaper group for Conrad Black, its former proprietor, Sky News reported earlier in the autumn.
Lord Black, who ceased to be a member of the House of Lords earlier this year on the grounds of his non-attendance, writes regular opinion pieces for the digital title and was a founding director of its publisher.
For decades, Lord Black was a colossal figure in the newspaper industry both in Britain and beyond, overseeing titles at Hollinger International which included the Telegraph, The Jerusalem Post and the Chicago Sun-Times.
He acquired an initial stake in the Telegraph group in 1985, before gaining full control later that year.
After being convicted in 2007 of fraud and obstruction of justice, he spent three-and-a-half years in prison, and in 2019 was pardoned by President Trump.
Other bidders for the Telegraph included National World, the London-listed vehicle headed by former Mirror newspapers chief David Montgomery, and Lord Saatchi, the former advertising mogul, who offered £350m.
Lord Rothermere, the Daily Mail proprietor, pulled out of the bidding earlier in the summer amid concerns that he would be blocked on competition grounds.
The Telegraph auction is being run by Raine Group and Robey Warshaw, the advisers to the Abu Dhabi-backed entity which was thwarted in its efforts to buy the media titles by a change in ownership law.