Should we fear Trumponomics? What tariffs could mean for the US, UK, EU, China and the world
There’s fear in some quarters of another Donald Trump presidency but will the economics be that bad?
Not a single vote has been counted but the policies of a possible second Trump presidency have already influenced financial markets.
The cost of US and UK borrowing – measured through 10-year revenue-raising instruments called bonds – has been upped as traders eyed the price-rising impact a Trump presidency could have on the world’s biggest economy.
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A signature policy of his – tariffs – could make things worse for US consumers, in turn hurting the world economy of which the UK is a part.
Precise detail on what tariffs Trump would apply on what goods and from where remains to be seen. He’s said all goods coming into the country could be slapped with a 10% tax.
Goods from China are going to be particularly hit with an anticipated 60% levy.
Why tariffs?
The hope is that by making imports more expensive goods made in the US will be more competitive and comparatively cheaper. More people would buy those things and life would be better for US producers, the thinking goes.
If US producers are doing well, they’ll hire more people, Trump expects. He’s calculating that more people working for US companies doing well will make for a strong economy and happy voters.
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Parts of America have been severely impacted by factory closures as companies move to parts of the world with cheaper wages and operating costs.
This accelerated since the 1990s when the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) made it easier and cheaper to export to the US, reducing the incentive to produce in the country.
Donald Trump campaigns in North Carolina. Pic: Reuters
Blue-collar workers, traditionally not college-educated, lost and continue to lose out majorly from plant closures. These are the voters Trump is targeting and who form his base of support.
It’s worth noting Trump isn’t the only fan of tariffs with the Biden administration implementing them on Chinese electric cars, solar panels, steel and aluminium as it sought to protect the investment it had made in such industries from cheap and heavily subsidised goods.
What will the effect be?
China, unsurprisingly, will be levied the highest and experience the greatest direct strike.
The hit will be “notably negative”, according to analysis from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), a leading thinktank.
It will face short-term pressures on manufacturing and trade with its gross domestic product (GDP) – the measure of everything produced in the country – to fall about 1% a year for two years, NIESR says.
Economists at Capital Economics quantify the cost at about a 0.5% to 0.7% reduction in GDP.
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UK should ‘expect’ Trump tarrifs
The US
That said the effects will be felt most keenly by those living in the US who will pay more.
If usually cheap imported goods get pricier that probably will cause the overall rate of inflation to rise.
Here the knock-on influences emerge. Higher inflation will just mean more expensive borrowing through upped interest rates as the US central bank, known as the Fed, will act to reduce inflation.
There’s no mystery around how high interest rates can weigh on an economy, the literal goal of hiked rates is to suppress buying power and to take money out of the economy.
Fears of the US ending up in recession spooked stock markets and triggered a global sell-off just three months ago.
Stock prices can seem nebulous but they impact the value of most people’s pensions.
A recession isn’t predicted but the US economy will falter, NIESR says.
Economic growth in America, as measured by GDP, would decrease by around 1.3 to 1.8 percentage points over the next two years, depending on whether the countries it trades with retaliate, upping their own duties on US goods.
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Worldwide reverberations
As tariffs make exporting less favourable exporters will simply export less, meaning less is produced and the worldwide economy slows.
The blow to the global economic output could be a 2% GDP drop after five years of Trump being in office, according to NIESR.
The consequences of Trump tariffs won’t just be short-term, NIESR forecasts, with global GDP still lower than it would have been without the imposition even in 15 years’ time.
Specific countries will be hit worse than others: Mexico and Canada for whom the US makes up roughly 80% and 50 % of trade, respectively will experience the greatest pain.
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The EU
It doesn’t look too bad for the European Union (EU) by comparison and could even be good for the bloc, some say.
NIESR reckons the euro area will be less badly affected than the UK over five years but the immediate impact will be worse.
The good news first: if Trump doesn’t lean too heavily into tariffs and focuses more on cutting taxes to grow the economy that bump could lead to stronger demand for European goods, notwithstanding import levies, suggests research from economic advisory firm Oxford Economics.
The bad news: it won’t look so good if the US economy turns bad through more aggressive policies like high tariffs on more goods, the firm says. That would mean a “large” fall in European exports, it adds.
And finally, some neutral news: not even high tariffs would be inflationary for the continent, Oxford Economics expects. Reduced demand and lower goods prices would just offset the higher import costs, it says.
Another firm, Capital Economics, also isn’t too concerned about the European economy under Trump.
“Smaller than many fear”, is how it described the suspected short-term macroeconomic consequences.
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What about the UK?
It’s got to be bad for the UK, right? The US is the country’s biggest trading partner after all, making up just under 20% of our trade
Again, not so. The UK doesn’t even make it into the top 10 worst-affected countries under NIESR’s research.
Capital Economics anticipates the knock would be small and maybe even positive, though inflation may be higher than if there were no second Trump administration.
But there’s no consensus on this point with NIESR forecasting GDP will be lower because of fewer exports and higher global interest rates.
This downturn would slow UK exports to other countries, NIESR says.
NIESR estimates UK GDP could be between 2.5% and 3% lower over five years and 0.7% lower in 2025. So instead of the 1.5% rate of GDP predicted by the IMF for next year, the economy would grow by 0.5%.
Donald Trump has announced that most goods imported from Mexico are to be exempt from his trade tariff regime for at least four weeks, just days after the charges were imposed.
He confirmed the move following a phone call with his Mexican counterpart Claudia Sheinbaum and, according to his commerce secretary, was due to announce a similar concession to Canada later in the day.
“We are working hard, together, on the Border, both in terms of stopping Illegal Aliens from entering the United States and, likewise, stopping Fentanyl,” Mr Trump posted on Truth Social.
The latest climbdown by the US president came after he surprised financial markets on Wednesday by waiving tariffs against carmakers following pleas from motor industry bosses.
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The White House revealed then that parts due to flow into the US from Mexico and Canada as part of the manufacturing supply chain would not qualify for tariffs so long as they complied with an existing trade agreement struck between the three.
‘Rules of origin’ guidelines under the USMCA deal allow goods to move between the three countries tariff-free if they qualify with a designation that they were made in North America.
US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick told Sky’s US partner network CNBC that if the concession was extended to Canada, then more than half of usual cross border trade volumes would be exempt.
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Why are tariffs such a big deal?
He too signalled there were signs of progress in Mr Trump’s dispute with America’s closest trading partners, saying each had worked hard to make progress in tackling imports of Fentanyl – blamed for high crime and deaths in US communities.
But Mr Lutnick explained that, as things stand, the reprieve would only last until 2 April when the Trump administration plans to impose reciprocal tariffs – on top of the 25% charges that came into force on Tuesday.
The car industry believes that no products from Canada and Mexico are currently subject to tariffs as they comply with the USMCA deal agreed in 2020.
It should spare consumers extra costs of at least $4,000 on the purchase of a new vehicle, industry data showed.
While that could still change from 2 April, Mr Trump is under intense pressure to relax his tariff regime permanently amid a backlash from US firms and financial market investors who fear it is self defeating.
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A closely-watched forecast has even suggested that the threats of a trade war were enough to push the US economy into recession before Mr Trump took office.
The dollar has sunk in value and US government borrowing costs have risen on the back of the turmoil.
It is widely expected that the European Union will be next to face tariffs – possibly from 2 April – after Trump threatened action “very soon” just last week.
Commenting on the threat to the eurozone from such a move, the president of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde said on Thursday: “Just the threat of those tariff increases and potential retaliations are putting a brake on – on investment, on consumption decisions, on employment, hiring, all the rest of it.
While Mr Trump has not issued a specific threat against the UK, her counterpart at the Bank of England Andrew Bailey told a committee of MPs on Wednesday that the US should work “multi-laterally” rather than bilaterally to resolve its disputes.
Donald Trump is to exclude carmakers across North America from the pain of US tariffs levelled against Mexico and Canada, following apparent pressure from motor bosses.
The White House confirmed the concession was made after the president spoke to the bosses of Ford, General Motors and Stellantis in a call on Wednesday.
Each company has manufacturing operations and suppliers in Canada and Mexico.
There will be a tariff exemption of at least a month on vehicles made across the continent but only if a previous agreement on so-called ‘rules of origin’ is implemented in full.
It governs where a product is first sourced and where a tariff may apply during transit across borders.
“Reciprocal” tariffs are still planned from April, the president’s spokesman said.
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Manufacturers have complained of being worst affected by the imposition of 25% tariffs against both Canada and Mexico since Tuesday because flows of parts between the three countries can be hit by tariffs multiple times.
The complicated nature of their operations can mean a single component crosses a border more than once during the production process.
Such a big spike in costs from tariffs poses a big risk to sales as customers are asked to pay more to help compensate for the sanctions.
Automakers’ share prices have been among the worst hit since Mr Trump took office again in January.
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Why are tariffs such a big deal?
The car bosses, according to Reuters news agency sources, pledged additional US investment but wanted clarity on tariffs ahead.
Mr Trump urged them to shift their operations to the United States, according to a White House statement.
The tariff concession marked the first compromise on the trade issue since the president signalled, on Tuesday, that there would be no U-turns and only more tariffs after Canada said it would respond in kind.
There have been growing signs this week that corporate America is uneasy, at best, with the tariff policy against both Mexico and Canada
Those US neighbours, along with China, which is facing 20% tariffs, are the country’s three biggest trading partners.
The imposition of tariffs on all goods has been received badly by financial market investors, worried that US profitability is at risk.
One closely-watched forecast for US growth suggested that the threat of tariffs since Mr Trump’s election victory was confirmed had hammered activity and plunged the country into recession.
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There are mounting reports of boycotts against US goods in Mexico and Canada.
The nerves were publicly admitted by the boss of Jack Daniel’s maker Brown Forman, Lawson Whiting, on Wednesday when he described Canadian provinces taking American-made alcohol off shop shelves as “worse than a tariff”.
US stock market values are sharply down since the inauguration and the dollar has lost more than three cents against rivals including the euro and the pound just this week amid the tariff turmoil.
Such is the growing investor concern for the health of the US economy, the tariff implications have been partly blamed for a steep fall in oil prices.
Brent crude was trading at $68 a barrel earlier on Wednesday – its lowest level for more than three years.
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