Connect with us

Published

on

There’s fear in some quarters of another Donald Trump presidency but will the economics be that bad?

Not a single vote has been counted but the policies of a possible second Trump presidency have already influenced financial markets.

The cost of US and UK borrowing – measured through 10-year revenue-raising instruments called bonds – has been upped as traders eyed the price-rising impact a Trump presidency could have on the world’s biggest economy.

If Trump clinches victory could we see global economic repercussions?

US election latest: Shock poll puts Harris ahead in Iowa

A signature policy of his – tariffs – could make things worse for US consumers, in turn hurting the world economy of which the UK is a part.

Precise detail on what tariffs Trump would apply on what goods and from where remains to be seen. He’s said all goods coming into the country could be slapped with a 10% tax.

More on Donald Trump

Goods from China are going to be particularly hit with an anticipated 60% levy.

Why tariffs?

The hope is that by making imports more expensive goods made in the US will be more competitive and comparatively cheaper. More people would buy those things and life would be better for US producers, the thinking goes.

If US producers are doing well, they’ll hire more people, Trump expects. He’s calculating that more people working for US companies doing well will make for a strong economy and happy voters.

Read more:
How nervous should we be if the election night result drags on?
Shocking moments from US election campaign

Parts of America have been severely impacted by factory closures as companies move to parts of the world with cheaper wages and operating costs.

This accelerated since the 1990s when the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) made it easier and cheaper to export to the US, reducing the incentive to produce in the country.

Donald Trump campaigns in North Carolina. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump campaigns in North Carolina. Pic: Reuters

Blue-collar workers, traditionally not college-educated, lost and continue to lose out majorly from plant closures. These are the voters Trump is targeting and who form his base of support.

It’s worth noting Trump isn’t the only fan of tariffs with the Biden administration implementing them on Chinese electric cars, solar panels, steel and aluminium as it sought to protect the investment it had made in such industries from cheap and heavily subsidised goods.

What will the effect be?

China, unsurprisingly, will be levied the highest and experience the greatest direct strike.

The hit will be “notably negative”, according to analysis from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), a leading thinktank.

It will face short-term pressures on manufacturing and trade with its gross domestic product (GDP) – the measure of everything produced in the country – to fall about 1% a year for two years, NIESR says.

Economists at Capital Economics quantify the cost at about a 0.5% to 0.7% reduction in GDP.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

UK should ‘expect’ Trump tarrifs

The US

That said the effects will be felt most keenly by those living in the US who will pay more.

If usually cheap imported goods get pricier that probably will cause the overall rate of inflation to rise.

Here the knock-on influences emerge. Higher inflation will just mean more expensive borrowing through upped interest rates as the US central bank, known as the Fed, will act to reduce inflation.

There’s no mystery around how high interest rates can weigh on an economy, the literal goal of hiked rates is to suppress buying power and to take money out of the economy.

Fears of the US ending up in recession spooked stock markets and triggered a global sell-off just three months ago.

Stock prices can seem nebulous but they impact the value of most people’s pensions.

A recession isn’t predicted but the US economy will falter, NIESR says.

Economic growth in America, as measured by GDP, would decrease by around 1.3 to 1.8 percentage points over the next two years, depending on whether the countries it trades with retaliate, upping their own duties on US goods.

👉 Listen to Sky News Daily on your podcast app 👈

Worldwide reverberations

As tariffs make exporting less favourable exporters will simply export less, meaning less is produced and the worldwide economy slows.

The blow to the global economic output could be a 2% GDP drop after five years of Trump being in office, according to NIESR.

The consequences of Trump tariffs won’t just be short-term, NIESR forecasts, with global GDP still lower than it would have been without the imposition even in 15 years’ time.

Specific countries will be hit worse than others: Mexico and Canada for whom the US makes up roughly 80% and 50 % of trade, respectively will experience the greatest pain.

Follow Sky News on WhatsApp
Follow Sky News on WhatsApp

Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News

Tap here

The EU

It doesn’t look too bad for the European Union (EU) by comparison and could even be good for the bloc, some say.

NIESR reckons the euro area will be less badly affected than the UK over five years but the immediate impact will be worse.

The good news first: if Trump doesn’t lean too heavily into tariffs and focuses more on cutting taxes to grow the economy that bump could lead to stronger demand for European goods, notwithstanding import levies, suggests research from economic advisory firm Oxford Economics.

The bad news: it won’t look so good if the US economy turns bad through more aggressive policies like high tariffs on more goods, the firm says. That would mean a “large” fall in European exports, it adds.

And finally, some neutral news: not even high tariffs would be inflationary for the continent, Oxford Economics expects. Reduced demand and lower goods prices would just offset the higher import costs, it says.

Another firm, Capital Economics, also isn’t too concerned about the European economy under Trump.

“Smaller than many fear”, is how it described the suspected short-term macroeconomic consequences.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

How does the US election work?

What about the UK?

It’s got to be bad for the UK, right? The US is the country’s biggest trading partner after all, making up just under 20% of our trade

Again, not so. The UK doesn’t even make it into the top 10 worst-affected countries under NIESR’s research.

Capital Economics anticipates the knock would be small and maybe even positive, though inflation may be higher than if there were no second Trump administration.

But there’s no consensus on this point with NIESR forecasting GDP will be lower because of fewer exports and higher global interest rates.

This downturn would slow UK exports to other countries, NIESR says.

NIESR estimates UK GDP could be between 2.5% and 3% lower over five years and 0.7% lower in 2025. So instead of the 1.5% rate of GDP predicted by the IMF for next year, the economy would grow by 0.5%.

Continue Reading

Business

Octopus Energy sparks £10bn demerger of tech arm Kraken

Published

on

By

Octopus Energy sparks £10bn demerger of tech arm Kraken

Octopus Energy Group, Britain’s largest residential gas and electricity supplier, is plotting a £10bn demerger of its technology arm that would reinforce its status as one of the country’s most valuable private companies.

Sky News can exclusively reveal that Octopus Energy is close to hiring investment bankers to help formally separate Kraken Technologies from the rest of the group.

The demerger, which would be expected to take place in the next 12 months, would see Octopus Energy’s existing investors given shares in the newly independent Kraken business.

A minority stake in Kraken of up to 20% is expected to be sold to external shareholders in order to help validate the technology platform’s valuation, according to insiders.

One banking source said that Kraken could be valued at as much as $14bn (£10.25bn) in a forthcoming demerger.

Citi, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are among the investment banks invited to pitch for the demerger mandate in recent weeks.

A deal will augment Octopus Energy chief executive Greg Jackson’s paper fortune, and underline his success at building a globally significant British-based company over the last decade.

More on Energy

Octopus Energy now has 7.5m retail customers in Britain, following its 2022 rescue of the collapsed energy supplier Bulb, and the subsequent acquisition of Shell’s home energy business.

In January, it announced that it had become the country’s biggest supplier – surpassing Centrica-owned British Gas – with a 24% market share.

It also has a further 2.5m customers outside the UK.

Octopus energy wind turbine. Pic suppled by Octopus.
Image:
Kraken is an operating system licensed to other energy providers, water companies and telecoms suppliers. Pic: Octopus

Sources said a £10bn valuation of Kraken would now imply that the whole group, including the retail supply business, was worth in the region of £15bn or more.

That would be double its valuation of just over a year ago, when the company announced that it had secured new backing from funds Galvanize Climate Solutions and Lightrock.

Shortly before that, former US vice president Al Gore’s firm, Generation Investment Management, and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board increased their stakes in Octopus Energy in a transaction valuing the company at $9bn (£7.2bn).

Kraken is an operating system which is licensed to other energy providers, water companies and telecoms suppliers.

It connects all parts of the energy system, including customer billing and the flexible management of renewable generation and energy devices such as heat pumps and electric vehicle batteries.

The business also unlocks smart grids which enable people to use more renewable energy when there is an abundant supply of it.

In the UK, its platform is licensed to Octopus Energy’s rivals EON and EDF Energy, as well as the water company Severn Trent and broadband provider Cuckoo.

Overseas, Kraken serves Origin Energy in Australia, Japan’s Tokyo Gas and Plentitude in countries including France and Greece.

Its biggest coup came recently, when it struck a deal with National Grid in the US to serve 6.5m customers in New York and Massachusetts.

Sources said other major licensing agreements in the US were expected to be struck in the coming months.

Kraken, which is chaired by Gavin Patterson, the former BT Group chief executive, is now contracted to more than 70m customer accounts globally – putting it easily on track to hit a target of 100m by 2027.

Earlier this year, Mr Jackson said that target now risked being seen as “embarrassingly unambitious”.

Last July, Kraken recruited Amir Orad, a former boss of NICE Actimize, a US-listed provider of enterprise software to global banks and Fortune 500 companies, as its first chief executive.

A demerger of Kraken will trigger speculation about an eventual public market listing of the business.

Its growth in the US, and the relative public market valuations of technology companies in New York and London, may put the UK at a disadvantage when Kraken eventually considers where to list.

One key advantage of demerging Kraken from the rest of Octopus Energy Group would be to remove the perception of a conflict of interest among potential customers of the technology platform.

A source said the unified corporate ownership of both businesses had acted as a deterrent to some energy suppliers.

Kraken has also diversified beyond the energy sector, and earlier this year joined a consortium which was exploring a takeover bid for stricken Thames Water.

This weekend, Octopus Energy declined to comment.

Continue Reading

Business

Ryanair urges EU chief to ‘quit’ over air traffic strike disruption

Published

on

By

Ryanair urges EU chief to 'quit' over air traffic strike disruption

The boss of Ryanair has told Sky News the president of the European Commission should “quit” if she can’t stop disruption caused by repeated French air traffic control strikes.

Michael O’Leary, the group chief executive of Europe’s largest airline by passenger numbers, said in an interview with Business Live that Ursula von der Leyen had failed to get to grips, at an EU level, with interruption to overflights following several recent disputes in France.

The latest action began on Thursday and is due to conclude later today, forcing thousands of flights to be delayed and cancelled through French airspace closures.

Money latest: ‘Lifeblood of mortgage market’ enjoying lower rates

Mr O’Leary told presenter Darren McCaffrey that French domestic flights were given priority during ATC strikes and other nations, including Italy and Greece, had solved the problem through minimum service legislation.

He claimed that the vast majority of flights, cancelled over two days of action that began on Thursday, would have been able to operate under similar rules.

Mr O’Leary said of the EU’s role: “We continue to call on Ursula von der Leyen – why are you not protecting these overflights, why is the single market for air travel being disrupted by a tiny number of French air traffic controllers?

More from Money

File photo dated 02/09/22 of a Ryanair Boeing 737-8AS passenger airliner comes in to land at Stansted Airport in Essex. Ryanair has revealed around 63,000 of its passengers saw their flights cancelled during last week's air traffic control failure which caused widespread disruption across the industry and left thousands of passengers stranded overseas. In its August traffic update, the Irish carrier said more than 350 of its flights were cancelled on August 28 and 29 due to the air traffic contr
Image:
Ryanair has cancelled more than 400 flights over two days due to the action in France. File pic: PA

“All we get is a shrug of their shoulders and ‘there’s nothing we can do’. We point out, there is.”

He added: “We are calling on Ursula von der Leyen, who preaches about competitiveness and reforming Europe, if you’re not willing to protect or fix overflights then quit and let somebody more effective do the job.”

The strike is estimated, by the Airlines for Europe lobby group to have led to at least 1,500 cancelled flights, leaving 300,000 travellers unable to make their journeys.

Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary speaks to journalists during a press conference at The Alex Hotel in Dublin. Picture date: Thursday October 3, 2024.
Image:
Michael O’Leary believes the EU can take action on competition grounds. Pic: PA

Ryanair itself had axed more than 400 flights so far, Mr O’Leary said. Rival easyJet said on Thursday that it had cancelled 274 services over the two days.

The beginning of July marks the start of the European summer holiday season.

The French civil aviation agency DGAC had already told airlines to cancel 40% of flights covering the three main Paris airports on Friday ahead of the walkout – a dispute over staffing levels and equipment quality.

Mr O’Leary described those safety issues as “nonsense” and said twhile the controllers had a right to strike, they did not have the right to close the sky.

DGAC has warned of delays and further severe disruption heading into the weekend.

Many planes and crews will be out of position.

Mr O’Leary is not alone in expressing his frustration.

The French transport minister Philippe Tabarot has denounced the action and the reasons for it.

“The idea is to disturb as many people as possible,” he said in an interview with CNews.

Passengers are being advised that if your flight is cancelled, the airline must either give you a refund or book you on an alternative flight.

If you have booked a return flight and the outbound leg is cancelled, you can claim the full cost of the return ticket back from your airline.

Continue Reading

Business

CBI kicks off search for successor to ‘saviour’ Soames

Published

on

By

CBI kicks off search for successor to 'saviour' Soames

The CBI has begun a search for a successor to Rupert Soames, its chairman, as it continues its recovery from the crisis which brought it to the brink of collapse in 2023.

Sky News has learnt that the business lobbying group’s nominations committee has engaged headhunters to assist with a hunt for its next corporate figurehead.

Mr Soames, the grandson of Sir Winston Churchill, was recruited by the CBI in late 2023 with the organisation lurching towards insolvency after an exodus of members.

Money latest: Has bond market calmed after chancellor’s tears?

The group’s handling of a sexual misconduct scandal saw it forced to secure emergency funding from a group of banks, even as it was frozen out of meetings with government ministers.

One prominent CBI member described Mr Soames on Thursday as the group’s “saviour”.

“Without his ability to bring members back, the organisation wouldn’t exist today,” they claimed.

More from Money

Rupert Soames
Image:
Rupert Soames. Pic: Reuters

Read more:
Starmer could be ousted as PM ‘within months’
Reeves’s tears a hard watch but reminder of her challenges

Mr Soames and Rain Newton-Smith, the CBI chief executive, have partly restored its influence in Whitehall, although many doubt that it will ever be able to credibly reclaim its former status as ‘the voice of British business’.

Its next chair, who is also likely to be drawn from a leading listed company boardroom, will take over from Mr Soames early next year.

Egon Zehnder International is handling the search for the CBI.

“The CBI chair’s term typically runs for two years and Rupert Soames will end his term in early 2026,” a CBI spokesperson said.

“In line with good governance, we have begun the search for a successor to ensure continuity and a smooth transition.”

Continue Reading

Trending