Hopes for consecutive interest rate cuts by the Bank of England over the next two months have been dampened by the UK government’s recent budget, economists have warned.
These rate cuts typically reduce borrowing costs for consumers and businesses over time.
The likelihood of back-to-back cuts slipped as the market digested last week’s statement, with the probability of a cut in November currently standing at 90%, but 65.2% for another in December, according to Refinitiv data. This is sharply down since last week.
The budget, which expanded fiscal spending by 1.2% of GDP for the coming year, is expected to reduce slack in the economy that might otherwise help lower inflation, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics.
“The positive data flow over the past month that put consecutive rate cuts on the table for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in November and December has been erased by the budget,” Pantheon’s chief economist Robert Wood said.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts the budget will add 0.5 percentage points to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 2025.
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Earlier in October, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey suggested that the MPC could take a more “aggressive” approach to rate cuts if inflation data continued to improve. However, Pantheon economists cautioned that the MPC is now likely to proceed more cautiously, wary of the inflationary impact of the budget’s fiscal loosening.
Pantheon said it now expects the MPC to deliver one more rate cut this year, potentially at this week’s meeting, followed by a 25-basis-point reduction each quarter in 2025, one fewer than previously anticipated.
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“All told, we expect one further cut this year, at this week’s meeting,” Pantheon adds. “This is one fewer than we expected at the time of our last forecast review. The market is taking a similar view, with pricing now reflecting a full 25bp less easing by March than before the budget.”
Market expectations have also shifted, now reflecting a full 25 basis points less easing by March than prior to the budget.
The picture is different in the United States, where economists still expect two rate cuts before the end of the year.
Like the MPC, the US Federal Reserve will meet on Thursday, a day later than usual due to Tuesday’s election, and with inflation still cooling, the Fed is expected to reduce interest rates for the second time this year.
Fed policymakers, led by Chair Jerome Powell, are anticipated to lower the benchmark rate by a quarter point, bringing it to around 4.6%, following a half-point cut in September. Economists project another quarter-point reduction in December, with further cuts possibly coming next year.
An Oxford University spinout which is developing a new generation of weed-resistant herbicides has begun planting a $40m (£32m) fundraising with prospective backers.
Sky News understands that Moa Technology, which was co-founded by the world-leading university’s head of plant sciences Professor Liam Dolan, is kicking off a Series C funding round.
Moa has already raised $59m (£47m) from prominent investors including Oxford Science Enterprises (OSE), BGF and Lansdowne Partners, the Mayfair-based hedge fund.
Its existing shareholders are understood to be supportive of the new fundraising plans, although potential new investors will also be approached.
Moa is developing active ingredients which can break weeds’ resistance to herbicides – a key challenge for the global agricultural sector – with the aim of securing approval from regulators.
Similar to the growth of antibiotic resistance in humans, resistant ‘superweeds’ are able to kill a farmer’s entire crop, ultimately endangering food security.
Industry data suggests that farmers spend up to $40bn (£31.2bn) annually on herbicides, and a further $25bn (£19.9bn) on weed-resistant seeds.
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However, a number of leading weedkillers, including Bayer-owned Roundup, have sparked multibillion dollar lawsuits over their alleged implications for human health.
Moa has developed more than 70 so-called ‘modes of action’, with several of the company’s products in advanced field trials in six countries, including the UK, US and France.
According to Moa, these could, assuming they gain regulatory approval, be commercially available by the end of the decade.
The OSE-backed spinout has a commercial agreement with Nufarm, an Australian agrichemicals company, to further develop one of its products.
A Moa spokesman said it intended to operate a royalties model similar to that of ARM Holdings, the chip designer, in semiconductors, meaning it will focus on research and development, and license its products to global manufacturers and distributors.
The company is run by chief executive Dr Virginia Corless, who has had extensive experience commercialising sustainable solutions in the energy, water and agriculture sectors.
An update on Moa’s fundraising progress is likely in the first half of next year.
The cost of living crisis has “boosted” the secondhand industry, Sky News has been told, as more than £2bn is spent on pre-loved gifts this Christmas.
Adam Jay, CEO of Vinted Marketplace, said the “trend” in buying pre-loved was “happening anyway” but described rising costs elsewhere as a possible “accelerator”.
“I’m sure the cost of living crisis has been a boost,” he told Sky News, adding that it had supported “the secondhand industry and trading of secondhand”.
“But I do think this trend was happening anyway because of people’s consciousness around overconsumption, around sustainable buying and sustainable consumption.
“I think all of these have I think these are deep trends and I think they’re trends that are here to stay. I really think secondhand can become the first choice ultimately,” he said.
Vinted, an online marketplace for buying and selling pre-owned items, made its first annual net profit last year of €18m (£15m).
The company’s revenue also rose by 61% year on year amid a rise in demand for secondhand goods.
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The Vinted boss’s comments come as more than £2bn is expected to have been spent buying pre-loved gifts this Christmas.
A report by Vinted and Retail Economics found that secondhand shopping will account for just over 10% of all gift spending.
More than four in five people also said they might spend some of their budget on pre-loved gifts this year.
Vicky Saynor, from Hertfordshire, has bought all of her Christmas gifts secondhand, with a total budget of £150.
“This year I said, that’s it – it’s only secondhand or they’re not getting anything,” she said.
She has spent £20 on each of her children and believes she will have saved possibly over £1,000.
“We have so much stuff in this world we just don’t need to keep buying more of it. One person’s rubbish is another person gold,” she continued, “I love old things – they have a life, they have a history.
“And secondhand clothing – why not? When I was young I would reuse or pass on and that all changed in the 90s and 00s when it really focused on consumerism. But we have to change our ways – we have to change our habits.”
According to the Vinted report, shoppers are also selling their own belongings to fund Christmas gifts, with 43% selling online.
More are planning to increase how much they buy secondhand too with over a third (35%) expected to buy more in the next five years.
In his interview with Sky News, Vinted’s Adam Jay has also highlighted the “confusion” around new reporting rules on tax in the new year.
Regulations from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) mean that if someone sells above a certain threshold Vinted must ask the seller for their national insurance number and share it with HMRC.
Mr Jay explained, however, that it is “a relatively small proportion of the overall sellers” on the platform and most will “already know” if they have to provide details.
“Vinted is obligated to collect the national insurance number for any seller who sold more than 30 items or more than £1,700 worth of product in the previous 12 months,” he said.
“But here’s the really important thing,” he added, “the obligation to give your national insurance number does not mean there is any obligation to actually pay tax… there is no tax to pay on the private sale of secondhand items.”
He also described the new rules as “a little challenging” for Vinted, as many members already sell at least 30 items.
“Hopefully they’ll [HMRC] rethink whether those thresholds are set in exactly the right way to make sure that ultimately the right people are paying the tax.”
While “supportive” of HMRC decision to change regulations, Mr Jay added: “I wish the thresholds had been set a bit differently. They’re actually set consistently across all OECD countries.
“I would hope even across all of Vinted markets in which we operate, that the tax authorities will consider changing those thresholds or making them more appropriate for business models like Vinted.”
Japanese car giants, Honda and Nissan, have announced plans to merge.
That would make them the third largest car maker by sales, behind Toyota Motor Corp and Volkswagen AG.
The two companies said they had signed a memorandum of understanding, which would also include the smaller Nissan Alliance member, Mitsubishi Motors, in the talks on integration.
Japan’s car makers have struggled to match their big rivals in electric vehicles (EVs) and are trying to cut costs.
If the merger is finalised it could result in a company worth more than 50 billion dollars (£39.77bn) based on the market capitalisation of all three car makers.
Honda would initially lead the new management, which would retain the principles and brands of each company, Honda’s president, Toshihiro Mibe, said.
The aim is for the deal to be completed by August 2026, he added, but said there was a chance it would not go forward.
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Mr Mibe said there are “points that need to be studied and discussed” about the merger. “Frankly speaking, the possibility of this not being implemented is not zero.”
Despite the prospective deal making the new company a giant in the industry, it would still lag behind Toyota as the leading Japanese automaker.
Toyota rolled out 11.5 million vehicles in 2023, with Honda, Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors combining for around eight million.
It comes after the three companies announced in August that they would share components for EVs like batteries and jointly research software for autonomous driving.
Nissan has struggled under the weight of a scandal that began with the arrest of its former chairman Carlos Ghosn in late 2018 on charges of fraud and misuse of company assets – allegations that he denies. He eventually was released on bail and fled to Lebanon.
He said the planned merger was a “desperate move”.