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Donald Trump says he would end Russia’s war in Ukraine should he return to the White House – but any rushed deal will likely leave Kyiv much weaker and European security in even greater peril.

Another major flashpoint a Trump presidency would immediately seek to influence is the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.

Mr Trump came close to direct war with Tehran during his first term in office and prior restraint could well give way to direct confrontation this time around.

US election latest: Harris and Trump make final pitches

Then there is the overwhelming longer-term challenge posed by China, with North Korea another growing headache especially after Mr Trump tried but failed to woo the leader of the hermit state during his first stint as commander-in-chief.

President Donald Trump meets North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Wednesday, Feb. 27, 2019, in Hanoi. (AP Photo/ Evan Vucci)
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Mr Trump meets North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in 2019. Pic: AP

With the US election on a knife edge, hostile and friendly capitals around the world have been gaming what a second Trump White House might mean for their respective national interests and for the most pressing global security threats.

Mr Trump’s track record of unpredictability is a challenge for traditional foes – but also for Washington’s closest allies, in particular fellow members of the NATO alliance.

The Republican nominee has made no secret of his frustration at how the US has for decades bankrolled the security blanket that protects Europe.

During his first term as president, Mr Trump threatened to withdraw the US from the alliance – a move that would almost certainly sound its death knell. His rhetoric did help to spur allies to dig deeper into their pockets and spend more on their militaries, though.

But the damage of years of underinvestment is deep and the pace of recovery is too slow for European NATO allies and Canada to credibly stand on their own as a potent military force any time soon.

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy meet at Trump Tower in New York City, U.S., September 27, 2024. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton REFILE - QUALITY REPEAT
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Meeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York in September – but what would a Trump presidency mean for Ukraine’s war with Russia? Pic: Reuters

In terms of immediacy when it comes to global crises, the impact of a Trump victory on 5 November would be felt most acutely by Ukraine and also by Iran.

The presidential candidate has repeatedly claimed that he would quickly end the Ukraine war, though without explaining how or what peace would look like.

In an indication of where his priorities lie, however, he has accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of being the “greatest salesman on earth” for securing tens of billions of dollars in weapons and other assistance that Washington has given to Kyiv.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump are seen during the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina November 30, 2018. REUTERS/Marcos Brindicci
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Pic: Reuters

Yet – coupled with Ukraine’s willingness to fight – that military aid is the biggest reason why Ukraine has managed to withstand almost 1,000 days of Vladimir Putin’s war.

Stop the flow of American weapons, and Ukrainian troops – despite their own ingenuity and the support of other allies – will simply lack the firepower to keep resisting the onslaught.

Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris meets with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House campus in Washington, U.S., September 26, 2024. Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY.
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Kamala Harris believes US support for Mr Zelenskyy and Ukraine is vital. Pic: Reuters

By contrast, US vice president Kamala Harris, who is vying for the top job, has made clear that she views continued support to Ukraine as being as vital to US and Western interests as it is to Kyiv’s – a far more familiar stance that echoes the view of her NATO partners.

While US support for Ukraine would undoubtedly change under a Trump administration, that is not the same as facilitating a complete surrender.

The former president – who portrays himself as the ultimate dealmaker and has adopted a new election slogan – “Trump will fix it” – will not want to be held responsible for the total absorption of Ukraine into Mr Putin’s orbit.

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Putin and Iran

His relationship with the Russian president is a particularly interesting dynamic.

When president, he infamously said he trusted Mr Putin’s denials over his own intelligence agencies when it came to claims about Russian interference in the 2016 US election.

But with the right advice, might a future President Trump be able to use his connection with Mr Putin to the West’s advantage?

At the very least, it adds a new level of unpredictability – which is perhaps the most important element when it comes to assessing the potential impact on the world of a second Trump term.

Donald Trump said 'as long as I'm President of the United States, Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon'
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Donald Trump said in 2020 ‘as long as I’m president of the United States, Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon’. Pic: Reuters

On Iran, in stark contrast to his approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine, a future President Trump may well back much greater US military support for Israel’s conflict against Tehran and its proxies – perhaps even direct involvement by US forces in strikes on Iran.

Mr Trump has an even tougher stance towards Tehran and its nuclear ambitions than Joe Biden’s administration.

His decision to rip up a major nuclear deal with Iran was one of his most significant foreign policy acts during his four years as president.

It is also personal, with Iran accused of hacking the Trump campaign in recent months – an attack that would surely only heighten tensions with Iran during any second Trump term.

On election night, Sky News will have access to the most comprehensive exit poll and vote-counting results from every state, county and demographic across America through its US-partner network NBC.

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‘It feels like a bad dream’: Minnesota mourns victims of ‘politically motivated assassination’

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'It feels like a bad dream': Minnesota mourns victims of 'politically motivated assassination'

“Holy, holy, holy” they sang at the Church of St Timothy in Blaine, Minnesota.

But the congregation is struggling to comprehend an act of evil – the brutal murder of one of their own.

Church memorial
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The church congregation remembered Melissa and Mark Hortman

Melissa Hortman grew up here. The former state speaker and her husband Mark were shot dead in their home on Saturday morning.

Her friend and party colleague, Erin Koegal, was among those attending mass.

Erin
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Erin Koegal says her friend’s death feels like a ‘bad dream’

“It still feels like a bad dream. I woke up this morning and was like, okay, so that was real,” she said.

“It’s hit me in waves, the grief, and the anger, and the sadness. She was a leader, a true definition of a leader.

“I’ve never known our party without Melissa as the leader and so I can’t, I don’t even know how we’re going to go forward as a caucus without her.”

The bullet holes on Melissa Hortman's front door.
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The bullet holes on Melissa Hortman’s front door.

State senator John Hoffman and his wife Yvette had already been shot and wounded.

Police sent to check on his colleague, Melissa Hortman, didn’t get there in time.

Vance Boelter
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Police are extensively searching for 57-year-old Vance Boelter

They named the suspect as Vance Boelter, a 57-year-old former Christian missionary.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz called it a “politically motivated murder”.

Read more here:
Neighbours of murdered US politician stunned
Manhunt after Minnesota politician and husband shot dead

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Neighbours of killed US politician stunned

Friends of Ms Hortman have told Sky News that her two children feared for their mother’s life after reading divisive rhetoric directed at her online.

Matt Norris, another political colleague of Ms Hortman, was also at church, reflecting on the rise of political violence in America.

Matt
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Matt Norris

“We’ve going to have to do some serious introspection as a state, as a country, and figure out how do we get beyond this,” he said.

“How have we been laying the seeds that have led to horrific acts of violence against public servants like this?

“And it’s going to be incumbent upon us as leaders to set a different tone, to set a different direction for our state and our country so that horrific tragedies like this never occur again.”

Melissa Hortman
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Tributes left for Melissa Hortman and her husband outside the Minnesota State Capitol

But there’s no sign of division at the State Capitol Building, where flags fly at half-mast and flowers are being left in tribute.

This is a community united in grief and in its hope for an end to gun violence in America.

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Trump’s Iran remarks let him still play ‘good cop’ to Netanyahu’s ‘bad cop’

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Trump's Iran remarks let him still play 'good cop' to Netanyahu's 'bad cop'

Reading between the lines of President Trump’s social media posts is an art, not a science.

But whether by intention or not, there is always insight in his posts. His Truth Social words reacting to the Israeli attack on Iran are intentionally ambiguous.

When was he told by Israel that they would strike Iran? Did he give them a green light, or was it more amber?

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Was his insistence, as recently as 48 hours ago, that a strike would “blow” the chances of a deal with Iran actually just a ruse to afford Israel the element of surprise? That’s what the Israelis are claiming.

Donald Trump speaks after signing a resolution on zero-emission heavy-duty trucks in the White House. Pic: Reuters
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Mr Trump said he ‘gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal’. Pic: Reuters

Clearly, President Trump does not want to give the impression that his ‘don’t strike’ advice was ignored by Netanyahu.

His social posts are filled with enough ambiguity to allow him to maintain his good cop stance alongside Netanyahu, the bad cop: “I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to ‘just do it’…”

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Trump’s ‘art of the deal’, whether it be in real estate or nuclear weapon negotiations, requires unpredictability and ambiguity.

Both of those, as it happens, are useful to hide ineptitude too. The line between diplomatic masterstroke and disastrous diplomacy is thin.

The president is claiming that the Israeli attacks make a deal more, not less, likely because of the pressure Iran will now be under.

Maybe, but many regional watchers are very unconvinced.

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An alternative path to negotiations for Iran would be to go fully down the North Korea route, comforted in the knowledge that China – as a big Iranian oil customer – and Russia – as a weapons customer – will be on side.

Trump may think that the pressure of bombardment will force Iran to heel. But the other pressure the Iranian supreme leader is under is the pressure of survival.

Self-preservation necessitates the Iranian response that we’re now seeing before any prospect of renewed negotiations can come.

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Iran attacks analysed

The Israelis and the Americans are calculating that Iran and its proxies are now sufficiently degraded, and so the response will be limp and containable.

They might be right in terms of conventional attacks, but asymmetrical operations are another fear – against Israeli targets or more broadly, softer Western targets in the region or beyond.

Step back from the chaos of the past 24 hours. The broader picture here is regime change.

Netanyahu said as much in his Friday speech, calling for an internal uprising. He ignored history – which suggests people tend to rally round their flag – but more than that, that foreign air strikes alone don’t work.

Look at Libya in 1986, Iraq in 1991, or Yugoslavia in 1999.

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Netanyahu wants to go further. Will he take out the supreme leader? Trump does not want another full-scale conflict in the Middle East. Of all the things he is accused of being, a hawkish warmonger he is not.

But there are plenty of politicians on Capitol Hill – on both sides of the divide – who support regime change in Iran.

I was at an event in Congress in December organised by Iranian exiled opposition leaders. I was struck by the cross-party support for regime change in one form or another.

Israel this weekend announced that its military had achieved total air superiority from western Iran to the capital Tehran. That’s remarkable.

Could Trump be persuaded to pursue regime change? Peace, eventually, through strength? His motto adapted.

We are at yet another unsettlingly tense moment for the region.

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Minnesota: US politician shot dead and another wounded – as suspect named

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Minnesota: US politician shot dead and another wounded - as suspect named

A manhunt is under way after a US politician and her husband were shot dead in their home in a “politically motivated assassination” – and another politician and his wife were also shot.

Minnesota state representative Melissa Hortman and her husband were killed at their home, Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, confirmed.

State senator John Hoffman and his wife were also shot in their home but are expected to survive. The senator, according to officials, is in a stable condition after emergency surgery.

Graphic of Minnesota State Representative Melissa Hortman (L) and Senator John Hoffman. Pic: Facebook / Minnesota Legislature
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Representative Melissa Hortman and Senator John Hoffman. Pic: Facebook/Minnesota Legislature

Authorities have confirmed that the suspect they are looking for is 57-year-old Vance Boelter – who, in a press conference, was described as a 6ft 1in white male, with brown hair and brown eyes.

Members of the public have been urged not to approach him as he may be armed.

The suspect was reportedly posing as a police officer, and officials said the alleged attacker escaped after an exchange of gunfire.

Both politicians are members of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party.

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US politician killed: Governor calls it ‘targeted political violence’

US President Donald Trump, in a statement, said: “I have been briefed on the terrible shooting that took place in Minnesota, which appears to be a targeted attack against State Lawmakers.

“Our Attorney General, Pam Bondi, and the FBI, are investigating the situation, and they will be prosecuting anyone involved to the fullest extent of the law.

“Such horrific violence will not be tolerated in the United States of America.”

John Hoffman and his wife were shot multiple times at their home. Pic: AP
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John Hoffman and his wife were shot multiple times at their home. Pic: AP

Authorities have urged residents of the Champlin and Brooklyn Park areas to stay in their homes.

In an earlier Facebook post, Mr Walz said: “I’ve been briefed this morning on an ongoing situation involving targeted shootings in Champlin and Brooklyn Park.

“The Minnesota Department of Public Safety and local law enforcement are on the scene. We will share more information soon.”

Former US president Joe Biden with Melissa Hortman. Pic: Instagram.
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Former US president Joe Biden with Melissa Hortman. Pic: Instagram/ melissahortman

At a subsequent news conference, Mr Walz said: “We must all, in Minnesota and across the country, stand against all forms of political violence.

“Those responsible for this will be held accountable.”

He has also urged those in Minnesota not to attend political rallies until the suspect is caught.

Police evacuated the Texas State Capitol and grounds in Austin ahead of an anti-Trump protest on Saturday – citing a credible threat to politicians.

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Kamala Harris and Melissa Hortman. Pic: Instagram.
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Former US vice president Kamala Harris and Melissa Hortman. Pic: Instagram/ melissahortman

Post-mortem examinations will be conducted to determine the extent of their injuries.

However, it is clear that both Ms Hortman and her spouse died from gunshot wounds, Drew Evans, superintendent of the Bureau of Criminal Apprehension, said.

Ms Hortman, a mother of two, was first elected in 2004 – and was the top house Democratic leader in the state legislature. She also served as speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives.

Mr Hoffman, also a Democrat, was first elected in 2012 – and ran a consulting firm called Hoffman Strategic Advisors.

Hakeem Jeffries, House Democratic leader, has described the shootings as “deeply disturbing” on X, adding that “violence is never acceptable”, and that he is “praying hard” for the victims.

Former Arizona representative, Gabby Giffords, described her friend Ms Hortman as a “true public servant”, who “dedicated her life building a better, safer Minnesota”.

Nancy Pelosi, former speaker of the US House of Representatives, said she was “heartbroken” by the news.

She added: “Unfortunately, we know the tragedy of when political violence hits home very well.

“All of us must remember that it’s not only the act of violence, but also the reaction to it, that can normalise it. This climate of politically-motivated violence must end.”

In a tribute, Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin said: “Melissa, Mark, John, and Yvette – these are not just names, and this is not just politics.

“These are people. They’re longtime friends to me and Jenn and so many others in Minnesota. They have children, loved ones, neighbors, and friends.”

Mr Martin added: “Today, we recommit ourselves to fight harder for the values that Melissa and Mark embodied – building a kinder, more just, and loving world. If this murderer thinks we will be silenced, he’s wrong.”

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