What a Trump presidency would mean for global wars and European security
Donald Trump says he would end Russia’s war in Ukraine should he return to the White House – but any rushed deal will likely leave Kyiv much weaker and European security in even greater peril.
Another major flashpoint a Trump presidency would immediately seek to influence is the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.
Mr Trump came close to direct war with Tehran during his first term in office and prior restraint could well give way to direct confrontation this time around.
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Then there is the overwhelming longer-term challenge posed by China, with North Korea another growing headache especially after Mr Trump tried but failed to woo the leader of the hermit state during his first stint as commander-in-chief.
Mr Trump meets North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in 2019. Pic: AP
With the US election on a knife edge, hostile and friendly capitals around the world have been gaming what a second Trump White House might mean for their respective national interests and for the most pressing global security threats.
Mr Trump’s track record of unpredictability is a challenge for traditional foes – but also for Washington’s closest allies, in particular fellow members of the NATO alliance.
The Republican nominee has made no secret of his frustration at how the US has for decades bankrolled the security blanket that protects Europe.
During his first term as president, Mr Trump threatened to withdraw the US from the alliance – a move that would almost certainly sound its death knell. His rhetoric did help to spur allies to dig deeper into their pockets and spend more on their militaries, though.
But the damage of years of underinvestment is deep and the pace of recovery is too slow for European NATO allies and Canada to credibly stand on their own as a potent military force any time soon.
Meeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York in September – but what would a Trump presidency mean for Ukraine’s war with Russia? Pic: Reuters
In terms of immediacy when it comes to global crises, the impact of a Trump victory on 5 November would be felt most acutely by Ukraine and also by Iran.
The presidential candidate has repeatedly claimed that he would quickly end the Ukraine war, though without explaining how or what peace would look like.
In an indication of where his priorities lie, however, he has accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of being the “greatest salesman on earth” for securing tens of billions of dollars in weapons and other assistance that Washington has given to Kyiv.
Pic: Reuters
Yet – coupled with Ukraine’s willingness to fight – that military aid is the biggest reason why Ukraine has managed to withstand almost 1,000 days of Vladimir Putin’s war.
Stop the flow of American weapons, and Ukrainian troops – despite their own ingenuity and the support of other allies – will simply lack the firepower to keep resisting the onslaught.
Kamala Harris believes US support for Mr Zelenskyy and Ukraine is vital. Pic: Reuters
By contrast, US vice president Kamala Harris, who is vying for the top job, has made clear that she views continued support to Ukraine as being as vital to US and Western interests as it is to Kyiv’s – a far more familiar stance that echoes the view of her NATO partners.
While US support for Ukraine would undoubtedly change under a Trump administration, that is not the same as facilitating a complete surrender.
The former president – who portrays himself as the ultimate dealmaker and has adopted a new election slogan – “Trump will fix it” – will not want to be held responsible for the total absorption of Ukraine into Mr Putin’s orbit.
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Putin and Iran
His relationship with the Russian president is a particularly interesting dynamic.
When president, he infamously said he trusted Mr Putin’s denials over his own intelligence agencies when it came to claims about Russian interference in the 2016 US election.
But with the right advice, might a future President Trump be able to use his connection with Mr Putin to the West’s advantage?
At the very least, it adds a new level of unpredictability – which is perhaps the most important element when it comes to assessing the potential impact on the world of a second Trump term.
Donald Trump said in 2020 ‘as long as I’m president of the United States, Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon’. Pic: Reuters
On Iran, in stark contrast to his approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine, a future President Trump may well back much greater US military support for Israel’s conflict against Tehran and its proxies – perhaps even direct involvement by US forces in strikes on Iran.
Mr Trump has an even tougher stance towards Tehran and its nuclear ambitions than Joe Biden’s administration.
His decision to rip up a major nuclear deal with Iran was one of his most significant foreign policy acts during his four years as president.
It is also personal, with Iran accused of hacking the Trump campaign in recent months – an attack that would surely only heighten tensions with Iran during any second Trump term.
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Elon Musk can keep giving away $1m to voters, judge rules – as lawyer admits winners aren’t chosen randomly
Elon Musk can keep giving away $1m to voters in battleground states, a judge has ruled – as a lawyer admitted the winners aren’t chosen randomly.
Musk – a supporter of Republican candidate Donald Trump – launched the giveaways last month via America PAC, his political action committee (PAC).
He has already handed out $16m in the scheme, which is open to registered voters in seven key battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – who sign a petition pledging to support free speech and gun rights.
On Monday, Pennsylvania Judge Angelo Foglietta ruled the giveaways could carry on, rejecting a district attorney’s request that he shut it down because it allegedly violated state election law.
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Elon Musk hands out $1m cheques
Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, a Democrat, said it was “a political marketing masquerading as a lottery”, adding “That’s what it is. A grift.”
Judge Foglietta did not explain his ruling on the matter but Chris Gober, a lawyer for America PAC, had argued the winners are not chosen by chance and are instead hand-picked based on who would be the best spokespeople for the group – despite Musk’s assertion that they would be chosen randomly.
Mr Gober said the final two winners before Tuesday’s presidential election will be in Arizona on Monday and Michigan on Tuesday.
He said the recipients “are not chosen by chance”, adding: “We know exactly who will be announced as the recipient today and tomorrow.”
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America PAC director Chris Young said recipients are vetted ahead of time to “feel out their personality, (and) make sure they were someone whose values aligned” with the group.
In closing arguments, Musk’s legal team said it was “core political speech” as anyone taking part had to sign a petition endorsing the US Constitution.
Given there will be no more Pennsylvania winners before the programme ends, Musk’s lawyers said any legal bid to stop it under Pennsylvania law was irrelevant.
Launching the plan in the state on 19 October, Musk said they would be “awarding a million dollars randomly to people who have signed the petition every day from now until the election.”
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The following day, he said in a social media post shown in court that anyone signing the petition had “a daily chance of winning one million dollars!”
Musk did not attend the hearing.
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‘My family are all Republicans but half are voting Democrat,’ says Arizona voter as swing states prepare for election
The sprawling state of Arizona was once reliably Republican but in 2020 that changed.
Joe Biden became only the second Democrat to win here since 1948, winning by less than 11,000 votes, and polling suggests Arizona could once again be won and lost by the narrowest of margins.
Above Phoenix, Dobbins Lookout provides a panoramic view of the rugged Grand Canyon State.
Many of the people there to watch the Friday night sunset were contemplating a consequential decision.
Those include Jennifer Montero and her fiance Richie Garcia, who say their vote on Tuesday is based on their economic circumstances.
“Prices have gone up like crazy,” said Ms Montero, “and then, especially now that I’m wanting to get married and have kids, I definitely want to be able to go to McDonald’s and afford a spicy for a dollar like they used to be.”
Until 2020, Arizona was reliably Republican
The couple are of Mexican descent, in a state where one in four voters are Latin American and the debate about immigration is complicated.
For Mr Garcia, being born in America means the border is less of a concern.
“Times are changing. I think a lot of the Hispanic community was very inclined to vote Democrat due to immigration status, but my parents are citizens. I believe that immigration status doesn’t really matter to me much anymore,” he said.
Less than 30 minutes away in downtown Phoenix, people were already beginning to vote at a drive-through polling centre.
Renee Rojas, a lifelong Republican who is voting Democrat for the first time
One of them was Renee Rojas, a lifelong Republican voting Democrat for the first time.
Ms Rojas, who is of Native American and Latino descent, says that decision is down to Donald Trump.
“Recent rhetoric and the changes of the Republican Party just made me realise that things are not going the way they should be,” she said, before adding, “My mom, my grandmother is a Republican. She’s Navajo. You know, my other family members and friends, they’re all Republicans, but half of them are voting Democrat this year.”
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Ms Rojas’s thoughts on the prospect of trouble after the result are a reminder of the strong Conservative values of the state she lives in.
“I’m an Arizonan. I have a gun myself, I have several different kinds of firearms, heavy machine guns and handguns. So I am a proud gun holder and people will demonstrate the way they want to as long as they’re not hurting anybody.”
A drive-through polling centre in downtown Phoenix
For other drive-through voters like Peter Orozco, the choice was a simple one, about stability.
He feels the current administration will maintain the foreign policy status quo.
“We can’t politically make any big changes, especially on an international scale, you know, because if we get somebody else president other than what the existing presidency is, it could be World War Three,” he said.
Mortgage broker Dane Jensen (R)
In Arizona, there are other voters who feel the state is worse off since the Democrats came to power.
They include Dane Jensen, a 26-year-old mortgage broker.
For the last few days, Mr Jensen has been standing outside another polling station in Scottsdale with a “Swifties for Trump” banner.
He made the banner as a joke to try to ruffle the feathers of people voting for the Democratic party, which the singer has endorsed.
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About Swift, he said: “That’s like someone like that who has a private jet and is flying around the country who is, in my opinion, creating more fossil fuels and bad energy for the environment than any one person.
“And for you to sit there on your high horse and billions of dollars, and tell people what you think should happen when you’re already set for life, I don’t really agree with that.”
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Beyond celebrity endorsements is an economic and social reality in Arizona, which Mr Jensen and all the voters in the state will recognise.
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“I’m born and raised here. So I know that area as well as anyone. But, you know, crime, the border economy, those are really important issues, they’re everyday issues,” he said.
It’s those everyday issues in a handful of vital places like Arizona that will decide an election hinging on the tightest of margins.
On the night, Sky News will have access to the most comprehensive exit poll and vote-counting results from every state, county and demographic across America through its US-partner network NBC.
You can find out more about Sky News’ coverage here.
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