Donald Trump says he would end Russia’s war in Ukraine should he return to the White House – but any rushed deal will likely leave Kyiv much weaker and European security in even greater peril.
Another major flashpoint a Trump presidency would immediately seek to influence is the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.
Mr Trump came close to direct war with Tehran during his first term in office and prior restraint could well give way to direct confrontation this time around.
Then there is the overwhelming longer-term challenge posed by China, with North Korea another growing headache especially after Mr Trump tried but failed to woo the leader of the hermit state during his first stint as commander-in-chief.
Image: Mr Trump meets North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in 2019. Pic: AP
With the US election on a knife edge, hostile and friendly capitals around the world have been gaming what a second Trump White House might mean for their respective national interests and for the most pressing global security threats.
Mr Trump’s track record of unpredictability is a challenge for traditional foes – but also for Washington’s closest allies, in particular fellow members of the NATO alliance.
The Republican nominee has made no secret of his frustration at how the US has for decades bankrolled the security blanket that protects Europe.
During his first term as president, Mr Trump threatened to withdraw the US from the alliance – a move that would almost certainly sound its death knell. His rhetoric did help to spur allies to dig deeper into their pockets and spend more on their militaries, though.
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But the damage of years of underinvestment is deep and the pace of recovery is too slow for European NATO allies and Canada to credibly stand on their own as a potent military force any time soon.
Image: Meeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York in September – but what would a Trump presidency mean for Ukraine’s war with Russia? Pic: Reuters
In terms of immediacy when it comes to global crises, the impact of a Trump victory on 5 November would be felt most acutely by Ukraine and also by Iran.
The presidential candidate has repeatedly claimed that he would quickly end the Ukraine war, though without explaining how or what peace would look like.
In an indication of where his priorities lie, however, he has accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of being the “greatest salesman on earth” for securing tens of billions of dollars in weapons and other assistance that Washington has given to Kyiv.
Image: Pic: Reuters
Yet – coupled with Ukraine’s willingness to fight – that military aid is the biggest reason why Ukraine has managed to withstand almost 1,000 days of Vladimir Putin’swar.
Stop the flow of American weapons, and Ukrainian troops – despite their own ingenuity and the support of other allies – will simply lack the firepower to keep resisting the onslaught.
Image: Kamala Harris believes US support for Mr Zelenskyy and Ukraine is vital. Pic: Reuters
By contrast, US vice president Kamala Harris, who is vying for the top job, has made clear that she views continued support to Ukraine as being as vital to US and Western interests as it is to Kyiv’s – a far more familiar stance that echoes the view of her NATO partners.
While US support for Ukraine would undoubtedly change under a Trump administration, that is not the same as facilitating a complete surrender.
The former president – who portrays himself as the ultimate dealmaker and has adopted a new election slogan – “Trump will fix it” – will not want to be held responsible for the total absorption of Ukraine into Mr Putin’s orbit.
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2:22
How does the US election work?
Putin and Iran
His relationship with the Russian president is a particularly interesting dynamic.
But with the right advice, might a future President Trump be able to use his connection with Mr Putin to the West’s advantage?
At the very least, it adds a new level of unpredictability – which is perhaps the most important element when it comes to assessing the potential impact on the world of a second Trump term.
Image: Donald Trump said in 2020 ‘as long as I’m president of the United States, Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon’. Pic: Reuters
On Iran, in stark contrast to his approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine, a future President Trump may well back much greater US military support for Israel’s conflict against Tehran and its proxies – perhaps even direct involvement by US forces in strikes on Iran.
Mr Trump has an even tougher stance towards Tehran and its nuclear ambitions than Joe Biden’s administration.
His decision to rip up a major nuclear deal with Iran was one of his most significant foreign policy acts during his four years as president.
It is also personal, with Iran accused of hacking the Trump campaign in recent months – an attack that would surely only heighten tensions with Iran during any second Trump term.
On election night, Sky News will have access to the most comprehensive exit poll and vote-counting results from every state, county and demographic across America through its US-partner network NBC.
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US President Donald Trump has told Hamas to hand over Israeli hostages or “you are dead”.
The threat, made over social media, came hours after the White House confirmed that US officials had broken with tradition to hold direct talks with Hamas.
The US has previously avoided direct contact with the group owing to Washington’s longstanding position not to negotiate with terrorists – with Hamas having been designated as a terrorist group in the US since 1997.
In a press conference on Wednesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said there had been “ongoing talks and discussions” between the US officials and Hamas.
Image: File pic: AP
But she would not be drawn on the substance of the talks – taking place in Doha, Qatar – between US officials and Hamas, but said Israel had been consulted.
Ms Leavitt continued: “Dialogue and talking to people around the world to do what’s in the best interest of the American people, is something that the president has proven is what he believes is a good faith, effort to do what’s right for the American people.”
There are “American lives at stake,” she added.
Adam Boehler, Mr Trump’s pick to be special envoy for hostage affairs, participated in the direct talks with Hamas.
A spokesperson for Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Israel had “expressed to the United States its position regarding direct talks with Hamas”.
Hours later, Mr Trump warned Hamas to hand over Israeli hostages or “it’s over for you” – adding: “This is your last warning”.
Image: Hamas militants on the day of a hostage handover in Gaza in February. Pic: Reuters
On his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump wrote: “Release all of the hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered or it is over for you.
“Only sick and twisted people keep bodies and you are sick and twisted. I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say.”
Mr Trump met with freed Israeli hostages on Wednesday, something he referenced in his social media post, before adding: “This is your last warning. For the leadership of Hamas, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance.
“Also, to the people of Gaza, a beautiful future awaits, but not if you hold hostages. If you do, you are dead. Make a smart decision. Release the hostages now, or there will be hell to pay later.”
Israel estimates about 24 living hostages, including American citizen Edan Alexander, and the bodies of at least 35 others, are still believed to be in Gaza.
Image: Donald Trump with Benjamin Netanyahu in February. Pic: Reuters
The US has a long-held policy of not negotiating with terrorists – which it is breaking with these talks as Hamas has been designated a foreign terrorist organisation by the US government’s National Counterterrorism Center since 1997.
The discussions come as a fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire continues to hold, but its future is uncertain.
Image: Palestinians amid the rubble in the southern Gaza strip. Pic: Reuters
Mr Trump has signalled he has no intention of pushing the Israeli prime minister away from a return to combat if Hamas does not agree to terms of a new ceasefire proposal – which, Israel says, has been drafted by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.
The new plan would require Hamas to release half its remaining hostages – the group’s main bargaining chip – in exchange for a ceasefire extension and a promise to negotiate a lasting truce.
Donald Trump has admitted his tariffs on major trading partners will cause “a little disturbance” – as China said it was “ready” for “any type of war” with the US.
The US president made his comments in an address to Congress, hours after the levies on imports came into effect.
Producers in Mexico and Canada have been hit with a 25% tax on items they export to the US, while a 20% tariff has been applied to Chinese imports.
Image: Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The US president has admitted his tariffs will cause ‘a little disturbance’ – as China responds. Pic: Reuters/AP
Stock markets, which Mr Trump is said to pay close attention to, slid on the tariffs news.
Exporters in the affected countries as well as businesses in the US and economists have raised concerns about the potential price-raising impact of the tariffs.
Making imports more expensive will likely make goods more expensive and could push prices up across the board.
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6:35
Trump’s Congress speech unwrapped
Concern over threat to interest rates
A cycle of high inflation could lead to interest rates being higher for longer in the US, the world’s largest economy, which could dampen economic activity.
A slowed US economy would have global consequences but even without a hit to the States, there are fears of a global trade war – in which countries add their own trade barriers in the form of tariffs.
The Chinese embassy in the US posted on X: “If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”
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Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau said his country was launching its own WTO challenge and described the US tariffs as a “dumb thing to do”.
He also warned the move by the Trump administration would impact American workplaces and add to inflation in the US.
Addressing the American public, he said: “We don’t want this… but your government has chosen to do this to you.”
Canada has announced the imposition of 25% tariffs on US imports worth C$30bn (£16.3bn).
But US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick struck a different note on tariffs and on Monday said the president will “probably” announce a compromise with Canada and Mexico as early as Wednesday.
Donald Trump has said he “appreciates” President Zelenskyy’s renewed pledge to work with him on a peace deal – and that Russia has sent “strong signals” it’s also ready for a truce.
The US president made the comments during a marathon address to Congress in which he talked up his actions so far and set out priorities for the future.
“We have accomplished more in 43 days than most administrations accomplished in 4 years, 8 years – and we are just getting started,” the president said.
But it in a highly divided Congress, Democrats registered their dissent with stone faces, placards calling out “lies” and one member’s ejection.
Mr Trump said he’d received an “important letter” from the Ukrainian leader saying he would work under his leadership to reach a peace deal.
“The letter reads Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer,” Mr Trump said.
“I appreciate that he sent this letter. Just got it a little while ago,” he added.
The president told a packed House chamber that Moscow had also indicated that they were ready for peace.
He said: “Simultaneously, we’ve had serious discussions with Russiaand have received strong signals that they are ready for peace. Wouldn’t that be beautiful?”
Longest speech
However, the majority of Mr Trump’s speech in the Capitol in Washington DC focussed on domestic issues.
Image: Democrats held protest signs during the speech. Pic: Reuters
At one hour and 39 minute, it was the longest annual address a president has delivered to Congress, breaking Bill Clinton’s record of one hour and 28 minutes.
Mr Trump lauded his nascent second stint in the White House and said he’d taken “unrelenting action” that had already achieved more than some administrations manage in years.
The president began his speech by proclaiming “America is back!” – prompting enthusiastic chants of “USA”.
Mr Trump said “the American Dream is surging – bigger and better than ever before”.
However, his remarks were met with jeers from Democrats and the House speaker called on the serjeant-at-arms to eject representative Al Green for refusing to stay quiet. Mr Green had stood up and shouted at Mr Trump, gesturing toward the president with his cane.
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0:56
Congressman ejected during Trump speech
Other Democrats waved paddles with statements including “false” and “Musk steals”. Some wore blue and yellow in solidarity with Ukraine.
With vice president JD Vance sat behind him, Mr Trump reeled off a list of his actions since he started his second term in January.
Among others, he mentioned rolling back the Paris climate accords, removing the “tyranny” of diversity policies, leaving the World Health Organization and the naming of the ‘Gulf of America’.
“Our country will be woke no longer,” he declared.
There was also a special mention for Elon Musk’s government efficiency department, DOGE, which has controversially cut thousands of jobs already.
President Trump claimed the billionaire’s efforts were saving the country billions by cutting waste and fraud.
Image: Elon Musk stood to receive applause for his work with DOGE. Pic: Reuters
Mr Musk was there in person, unusually in a suit, and stood to acknowledge the applause from the mass of Republicans in the chamber.
“Thank you very much, we appreciate it,” Mr Trump told him.
He said the US had been “ripped off for decades by every country on earth” and that tariffs were also about “protecting the soul of our country”.
The president has claimed previously they are in response to the three countries not doing enough to halt the flow of powerful drugs such as fentanyl.
In response, China’s US embassy tweeted ominously: “If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”
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‘Whatever they tariff us, we will tariff them’
The president also said he would “make America affordable again” and that President Biden hadn’t done enough to control inflation.
“Joe Biden especially let the price of eggs get out of control – and we are working hard to get it back down. A major focus of our fight to defeat inflation is rapidly reducing the cost of energy,” he added.
Illegal immigration also took up a chunk of his record-breaking speech.
The president repeated his well-worn pledge to clamp down on people entering through the southern border and reverse what he called “insane open-border policies”.
To another burst of applause, he said he had designated some South America gangs as “terrorist” organisations.
Greenland and the Panama Canal also got a mention.
The president said America intended to reclaim the famous shipping passage – which it relinquished control over in 1999 – and repeated his ambition to own the vast Danish territory.
Image: First lady Melania Trump also got a warm welcome. Pic: Reuters
Image: Pic: Reuters
Addressing Greenlanders, he said: “We strongly support your right to determine your own future, and if you choose, we welcome you into the United States of America.”
“We need Greenland for national security and even international security,” he said. “And we’re working with everybody involved to try and get it… and I think we’re going to get it, one way or the other.”
Image: DJ Daniel was made a ‘Secret Service agent’. Pic: AP
First lady Melania Trump watched the speech from on high in the gallery, with guests also including the family of the firefighter killed during the assassination attempt last summer, and a man recently freed from a Russian jail.
There was also a heart-warming moment where a child recovering from brain cancer was summoned to stand up.
Wearing a police uniform, 13-year-old DJ Daniel was lifted into the air in disbelief by his dad as President Trump told him: “I am asking our new Secret Service director, Sean Curran, to officially make you an agent of the United States Secret Service. Thank you, DJ.”