What a Trump presidency would mean for global wars and European security
Donald Trump says he would end Russia’s war in Ukraine should he return to the White House – but any rushed deal will likely leave Kyiv much weaker and European security in even greater peril.
Another major flashpoint a Trump presidency would immediately seek to influence is the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.
Mr Trump came close to direct war with Tehran during his first term in office and prior restraint could well give way to direct confrontation this time around.
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Then there is the overwhelming longer-term challenge posed by China, with North Korea another growing headache especially after Mr Trump tried but failed to woo the leader of the hermit state during his first stint as commander-in-chief.
Mr Trump meets North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in 2019. Pic: AP
With the US election on a knife edge, hostile and friendly capitals around the world have been gaming what a second Trump White House might mean for their respective national interests and for the most pressing global security threats.
Mr Trump’s track record of unpredictability is a challenge for traditional foes – but also for Washington’s closest allies, in particular fellow members of the NATO alliance.
The Republican nominee has made no secret of his frustration at how the US has for decades bankrolled the security blanket that protects Europe.
During his first term as president, Mr Trump threatened to withdraw the US from the alliance – a move that would almost certainly sound its death knell. His rhetoric did help to spur allies to dig deeper into their pockets and spend more on their militaries, though.
But the damage of years of underinvestment is deep and the pace of recovery is too slow for European NATO allies and Canada to credibly stand on their own as a potent military force any time soon.
Meeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York in September – but what would a Trump presidency mean for Ukraine’s war with Russia? Pic: Reuters
In terms of immediacy when it comes to global crises, the impact of a Trump victory on 5 November would be felt most acutely by Ukraine and also by Iran.
The presidential candidate has repeatedly claimed that he would quickly end the Ukraine war, though without explaining how or what peace would look like.
In an indication of where his priorities lie, however, he has accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of being the “greatest salesman on earth” for securing tens of billions of dollars in weapons and other assistance that Washington has given to Kyiv.
Pic: Reuters
Yet – coupled with Ukraine’s willingness to fight – that military aid is the biggest reason why Ukraine has managed to withstand almost 1,000 days of Vladimir Putin’s war.
Stop the flow of American weapons, and Ukrainian troops – despite their own ingenuity and the support of other allies – will simply lack the firepower to keep resisting the onslaught.
Kamala Harris believes US support for Mr Zelenskyy and Ukraine is vital. Pic: Reuters
By contrast, US vice president Kamala Harris, who is vying for the top job, has made clear that she views continued support to Ukraine as being as vital to US and Western interests as it is to Kyiv’s – a far more familiar stance that echoes the view of her NATO partners.
While US support for Ukraine would undoubtedly change under a Trump administration, that is not the same as facilitating a complete surrender.
The former president – who portrays himself as the ultimate dealmaker and has adopted a new election slogan – “Trump will fix it” – will not want to be held responsible for the total absorption of Ukraine into Mr Putin’s orbit.
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Putin and Iran
His relationship with the Russian president is a particularly interesting dynamic.
When president, he infamously said he trusted Mr Putin’s denials over his own intelligence agencies when it came to claims about Russian interference in the 2016 US election.
But with the right advice, might a future President Trump be able to use his connection with Mr Putin to the West’s advantage?
At the very least, it adds a new level of unpredictability – which is perhaps the most important element when it comes to assessing the potential impact on the world of a second Trump term.
Donald Trump said in 2020 ‘as long as I’m president of the United States, Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon’. Pic: Reuters
On Iran, in stark contrast to his approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine, a future President Trump may well back much greater US military support for Israel’s conflict against Tehran and its proxies – perhaps even direct involvement by US forces in strikes on Iran.
Mr Trump has an even tougher stance towards Tehran and its nuclear ambitions than Joe Biden’s administration.
His decision to rip up a major nuclear deal with Iran was one of his most significant foreign policy acts during his four years as president.
It is also personal, with Iran accused of hacking the Trump campaign in recent months – an attack that would surely only heighten tensions with Iran during any second Trump term.
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US
Matt Gaetz: Ex-Trump attorney general pick paid women for sex, including with a 17-year-old girl, US House report says
Matt Gaetz, who was briefly Donald Trump’s nominee for US attorney general, paid women for sex, including with a 17-year-old girl, and used drugs while he was a member of Congress, a committee has said.
The House Ethics Committee’s report concluded there was “substantial evidence” that the former Florida congressman violated House rules, state and federal laws, and other standards of conduct banning prostitution, statutory rape, illicit drug use, and obstruction of Congress.
And the committee accused the 42-year-old of accepting gifts of luxury travel in excess of permissible limits with a trip to the Bahamas in 2018.
The House of Representatives panel wrote: “From 2017 to 2020, Representative Gaetz made tens of thousands of dollars in payments to women that the Committee determined were likely in connection with sexual activity and/or drug use.”
The Republican, who denies any wrongdoing, had sought a restraining order against the committee in a bid to halt the release of its report summarising its investigation.
The filing accused the committee of an “unconstitutional” attempt “to exercise jurisdiction over a private citizen through the threatened release of an investigative report containing potentially defamatory allegations, in violation of the committee’s own rules”.
Last month, Trump ally Mr Gaetz withdrew his name from consideration to be the next US attorney general – the country’s top legal official.
Mr Gaetz said his selection was “unfairly becoming a distraction” to the transition of Mr Trump’s administration into the White House.
Donald Trump and Matt Gaetz in August 2023. Pic: Reuters
The Florida Republican had faced scrutiny over previous sex trafficking allegations which were investigated by the department he had been picked by the president-elect to lead.
Mr Gaetz was re-elected to the House of Representatives in November this year but resigned after Mr Trump nominated him as attorney general.
The 37-page House report said: “From at least 2017 to 2020, Representative Gaetz regularly paid women for engaging in sexual activity with him.
“In 2017, Representative Gaetz engaged in sexual activity with a 17-year-old girl. During the period 2017 to 2019, Representative Gaetz used or possessed illegal drugs, including cocaine and ecstasy, on multiple occasions.”
‘Sex with 17-year-old girl’
The ethics panel received testimony that Mr Gaetz had sex with a 17-year-old girl, described in the report as Victim A.
It said: “Victim A recalled receiving $400 in cash from Representative Gaetz that evening, which she understood to be payment for sex.
“Victim A said that she did not inform Representative Gaetz that she was under 18 at the time, nor did he ask her age.”
Mr Gaetz was investigated by the Justice Department for three years over sex trafficking allegations. No criminal charges were brought.
The ethics panel said there was not enough evidence that Mr Gaetz violated the federal sex trafficking statute.
All of the women who testified said the sexual encounters with Mr Gaetz were consensual.
‘I feel violated’
However, one woman told the committee that the use of drugs at the parties and events they attended may have “impair[ed their] ability to really know what was going on or fully consent”.
Another woman told the committee: “When I look back on certain moments, I feel violated.”
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