Donald Trump says he would end Russia’s war in Ukraine should he return to the White House – but any rushed deal will likely leave Kyiv much weaker and European security in even greater peril.
Another major flashpoint a Trump presidency would immediately seek to influence is the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.
Mr Trump came close to direct war with Tehran during his first term in office and prior restraint could well give way to direct confrontation this time around.
Then there is the overwhelming longer-term challenge posed by China, with North Korea another growing headache especially after Mr Trump tried but failed to woo the leader of the hermit state during his first stint as commander-in-chief.
Image: Mr Trump meets North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in 2019. Pic: AP
With the US election on a knife edge, hostile and friendly capitals around the world have been gaming what a second Trump White House might mean for their respective national interests and for the most pressing global security threats.
Mr Trump’s track record of unpredictability is a challenge for traditional foes – but also for Washington’s closest allies, in particular fellow members of the NATO alliance.
The Republican nominee has made no secret of his frustration at how the US has for decades bankrolled the security blanket that protects Europe.
During his first term as president, Mr Trump threatened to withdraw the US from the alliance – a move that would almost certainly sound its death knell. His rhetoric did help to spur allies to dig deeper into their pockets and spend more on their militaries, though.
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But the damage of years of underinvestment is deep and the pace of recovery is too slow for European NATO allies and Canada to credibly stand on their own as a potent military force any time soon.
Image: Meeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York in September – but what would a Trump presidency mean for Ukraine’s war with Russia? Pic: Reuters
In terms of immediacy when it comes to global crises, the impact of a Trump victory on 5 November would be felt most acutely by Ukraine and also by Iran.
The presidential candidate has repeatedly claimed that he would quickly end the Ukraine war, though without explaining how or what peace would look like.
In an indication of where his priorities lie, however, he has accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of being the “greatest salesman on earth” for securing tens of billions of dollars in weapons and other assistance that Washington has given to Kyiv.
Image: Pic: Reuters
Yet – coupled with Ukraine’s willingness to fight – that military aid is the biggest reason why Ukraine has managed to withstand almost 1,000 days of Vladimir Putin’swar.
Stop the flow of American weapons, and Ukrainian troops – despite their own ingenuity and the support of other allies – will simply lack the firepower to keep resisting the onslaught.
Image: Kamala Harris believes US support for Mr Zelenskyy and Ukraine is vital. Pic: Reuters
By contrast, US vice president Kamala Harris, who is vying for the top job, has made clear that she views continued support to Ukraine as being as vital to US and Western interests as it is to Kyiv’s – a far more familiar stance that echoes the view of her NATO partners.
While US support for Ukraine would undoubtedly change under a Trump administration, that is not the same as facilitating a complete surrender.
The former president – who portrays himself as the ultimate dealmaker and has adopted a new election slogan – “Trump will fix it” – will not want to be held responsible for the total absorption of Ukraine into Mr Putin’s orbit.
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2:22
How does the US election work?
Putin and Iran
His relationship with the Russian president is a particularly interesting dynamic.
But with the right advice, might a future President Trump be able to use his connection with Mr Putin to the West’s advantage?
At the very least, it adds a new level of unpredictability – which is perhaps the most important element when it comes to assessing the potential impact on the world of a second Trump term.
Image: Donald Trump said in 2020 ‘as long as I’m president of the United States, Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon’. Pic: Reuters
On Iran, in stark contrast to his approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine, a future President Trump may well back much greater US military support for Israel’s conflict against Tehran and its proxies – perhaps even direct involvement by US forces in strikes on Iran.
Mr Trump has an even tougher stance towards Tehran and its nuclear ambitions than Joe Biden’s administration.
His decision to rip up a major nuclear deal with Iran was one of his most significant foreign policy acts during his four years as president.
It is also personal, with Iran accused of hacking the Trump campaign in recent months – an attack that would surely only heighten tensions with Iran during any second Trump term.
On election night, Sky News will have access to the most comprehensive exit poll and vote-counting results from every state, county and demographic across America through its US-partner network NBC.
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Donald Trump disparaged the Russian military and backed Ukraine to retake all its occupied territory in an astonishing about-turn on the war.
In a post on Truth Social, made after talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations in New York, the US president said a return to “the original borders from where this war started is very much an option”.
“I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form,” he wrote.
Mr Trump said “time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO” could help Kyv win back lost territory, and said Russia was in “economic trouble”.
He said Moscow had been “fighting aimlessly” for three-and-a-half years – and had it been a “real military power” it would have defeated Ukraine in less than a week.
“This is not distinguishing Russia. In fact, it is very much making them look like ‘a paper tiger’,” he added.
He later admitted he was surprised by Mr Trump’s comments, telling Fox News’ Special Report he has a better relationship with the president than before.
Image: Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations. Pic: Reuters
Trump’s patience not ‘infinite’
Mr Trump also appeared to pour cold water on his hopes of persuading Vladimir Putin to sign a peace deal.
Speaking to Emmanuel Macron at the UN summit, he said their relationship had turned out to be meaningless.
Just last month, Mr Trump rolled out the red carpet for the Russian president at a summit in Alaska – in a push to expedite the war’s conclusion.
Before returning to the White House, he repeatedly claimed he’d be able to end the conflict in 24 hours.
Speaking at the UN Security Council, his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, admitted ending the war had proven an “extraordinary challenge”.
He said Mr Trump had “worked on it tirelessly”, but warned Russia his patience is not “infinite”.
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Rigby to Trump: Was Putin’s Alaska invite a mistake?
The US president has previously suggested Ukraine will never be able to reclaim all the territory Russia has occupied since seizing the Crimean Peninsula in 2014.
Ukraine has lost large areas of land in the east of the country.
In the Donetsk region, Russia now controls about 70% of the territory. Kyiv’s forces have been pushed back to four cities analysts have dubbed the “fortress belt”.
Moscow has partly annexed three other regions, too: Luhansk in the east, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson further west.
Image: The situation in Ukraine on 19 September
Trump tells NATO to shoot down Russian jets in its skies
Meanwhile, Russia appears to be provoking its neighbours to the west. Last week, Estonia said three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated its airspace for 12 minutes before Italian NATO jets escorted them away.
While talking to Mr Zelenskyy at the UN, Mr Trump was asked by reporters whether he thought NATO should shoot down any Russian planes that entered NATO airspace.
“Yes, I do,” Mr Trump replied.
On Truth Social, he said the US would continue to supply weapons to NATO, and it was for the alliance to “do what they want with them”.
Mr Trump also suggested the Russian people are not aware of “what is really going on with this war”.
He added: “Most of their money is being spent on fighting Ukraine. Putin and Russia are in big economic trouble and this is the time for Ukraine to act.”
He has called on European and NATO allies to increase economic sanctions on Moscow.
In a joint statement following the president’s comments, G7 foreign ministers said discussions were ongoing about additional economic sanctions on Russia.
So, why the handbrake turn from framing negotiations as the most practical outcome to a new-found confidence in Ukraine, when supported by its European neighbours and NATO?
Image: Trump held talks with Zelenskyy at the UN. Pic: Reuters
Firstly, it could be the military and economic reality on the ground. Russia’s paying a high price for the war, both in manpower and finances.
Trump has acknowledged that Moscow is in “big economic trouble”, which strengthens the case for Ukraine prevailing with Western help.
Ukraine’s resilience has also shifted perceptions – the impossible now looking possible if allies remain committed.
Secondly, it could be the influence of allies. European leaders flew to Washington en masse last month to urge caution in dealings with Putin.
European NATO members have stepped up aid to Ukraine, further weakening the President’s rhetoric about America carrying the financial burden.
He’s suddenly aligning himself with European countries, endorsing the shooting down of Russian planes violating their airspace.
Thirdly, it could be more about domestic politics, with the president under bipartisan scrutiny at home over his “softly, softly” approach to Russia.
A tougher national defence posture could help him consolidate support among Republicans, while also appealing to moderates, who regard the defence of Ukraine as a test of national credibility.
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Zelenskyy on Trump’s ‘big shift’ over Ukraine
Trump versus the world
There’s another factor worth considering – Trump’s negotiating tactic. He has a long record of changing position to gain leverage.
Talk of compromise might have been the strategy for getting Ukraine and Russia into talks, but with Russia showing no willingness to compromise, his calculation shifting back to the restoration of Ukraine.
Whatever the reason for his change of heart, and whether it translates into US policy, the last three days have shown an emboldened Trump.
From his declaration of “hate” for his opponents during a memorial service for Charlie Kirk, to his sensational claim to have “found an answer on autism”, to his derision of the UN, he’s unfiltered right now.
Place him in front of a microphone or online, and it’s Trump versus the world.
Acclaimed Italian actress Claudia Cardinale, who starred in The Pink Panther and Once Upon A Time In The West, has died aged 87, according to French media reports.
The actress, who starred in more than 100 films and made-for-TV productions, died in Nemours, France, surrounded by her children, her agent told the AFP news agency.
At the age of 17 she won a beauty contest in Tunisia, where she was born to Sicilian parents, and was rewarded with a trip to the Venice Film Festival, kick-starting her acting career.
She had expected to become a schoolteacher before she entered the beauty contest.
Image: Claudia Cardinale at the Prix Lumieres awards ceremony in Paris in January 2013. Pic: AP
Cardinale gained international fame in 1963 when she starred in both Federico Fellini’s 8-1/2 and The Leopard.
She went on to star in the comedy The Pink Panther and Sergio Leone’s Once Upon A Time In The West in 1968.
She considered 1966’s The Professionals as the best of her Hollywood films.
When she was awarded a lifetime achievement at the Berlin Film Festival in 2002, she said acting had been a great career.
“I’ve lived more than 150 lives, prostitute, saint, romantic, every kind of woman, and that is marvellous to have this opportunity to change yourself,” she said.
“I’ve worked with the most important directors. They gave me everything.”
Cardinale was named a goodwill ambassador for the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation for the defence of women’s rights in 2000.