It’s a new era for the College Football Playoff, with the field growing from four to 12 this season. That means three times as many programs will gain entry, but, beginning with Tuesday’s initial playoff rankings, there’s three times as much room for outrage, too.
Under the old rules, there was a simple line of demarcation that separated the elated from the angry: Who’s in?
Now, there are so many more reasons for nitpicking the committee’s decisions, from first-round byes to hosting a home game to whether your supposedly meaningful conference has been eclipsed by teams from the Group of 5.
And if the first rankings are any indication, it’s going to be a fun year for fury. There’s little logic to be taken from the initial top 25 beyond the committee’s clear love for the Big Ten. Penn State and Indiana make the top eight despite having only one win combined over an ESPN FPI top-40 team (Penn State over Iowa). That Ohio State checks in at No. 2 ahead of Georgia is the most inexplicable decision involving Georgia since Charlie Daniels suggested the devil lost that fiddle contest. Oregon is a reasonable No. 1, but the Ducks still came within a breath of losing to Boise State. Indeed, the Big Ten’s nonconference record against the Power 4 this season is 6-8, just a tick better than the ACC and well behind the SEC’s mark of 10-6.
But this is the fun of early November rankings. The committee is still finding its footing, figuring out what to prioritize and what to ignore, what’s signal and what’s noise. And that’s where the outrage really helps. It’s certainly not signal, but it can be a really loud noise.
This week’s Anger Index:
There are only two possible explanations for BYU’s treatment in this initial ranking. The first is that the committee members are too sleepy to watch games beyond the Central time zone. The second, and frankly, less rational one, is they simply didn’t do much homework.
It’s certainly possible the committee members are so enthralled with metrics such as the FPI (where BYU ranks 28th) or SP+ (22nd) that they’ve determined the Cougars’ actual record isn’t as important. This is incredibly foolish. The FPI and SP+ certainly have their value, but they’re probabilistic metrics, designed to gauge the likelihood of future success. They’re in no way a ranking of actual results. (That’s why USC is still No. 17 in the FPI, despite Lincoln Riley spending his days wistfully scrolling through old pictures of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray and wondering if Oklahoma might want to get back together.)
To look at actual results paints a clear picture.
BYU (No. 4) has a better strength of record than Ohio State (No. 5), has played roughly the same quality schedule as Texas and has two wins against other teams ranked in the committee’s top 25 — as many as Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, Tennessee and Indiana (all ranked ahead of the Cougars) combined.
Indiana’s rags-to-riches story is wonderful, of course, but how can the committee compare what BYU has done (wins over SMU and Kansas State) against Indiana’s 103rd-ranked strength of schedule?
And this particular snub has significant effects. The difference between No. 8 and No. 9 is a home game in the first round, of course, though as a potential conference champion, that’s a moot point. But what if BYU loses a game — perhaps the Big 12 title game? That could not only doom the Cougars from getting a first-round bye, but it could quite likely set up a scenario in which the Big 12 is shuffled outside the top four conferences entirely, passed by upstart Boise State.
What’s clear from this first round of rankings is the committee absolutely loves the Big Ten — with four teams ranked ahead of a subjectively more accomplished BYU team — and the Big 12 is going to face some serious headwinds.
There’s a great, though little watched, TV show from the 2010s called “Rectify,” about a man who escapes death row after new evidence is found, only to be constantly harassed by the same system that fraudulently locked him away for 20 years. This is basically the story of SMU.
Let’s do a quick blind résumé here.
Team A: 8-1 record, No. 13 strength of record, two wins vs. ranked opponents, loss to SP+ No. 22, .578 opponent win percentage
Team B: 7-1 record, No. 15 strength of record, two wins vs. ranked opponents, loss to SP+ No. 91, .567 opponent win percentage
OK, you probably guessed Team A is SMU. The Mustangs have wins against Louisville and Pitt — both relatively emphatic — and their lone loss came to No. 9 BYU, which came before a quarterback change and included five red zone drives that amounted to only six total points.
Team B? That’s Notre Dame. The Irish have the worst loss by far (to Northern Illinois) of any team in the top 25, beat a common opponent by the same score (though, while SMU outgained Louisville by 20 yards, the Cardinals actually outgained Notre Dame by 115) and have played one fewer game.
The difference? SMU has the stigma — of the death penalty, of the upstart program new to the Power 4, of being unworthy. Notre Dame is the big brand, and that results in being ranked three spots higher and, if the playoff were held today, getting in, while the Mustangs are left out.
There are three two-loss SEC teams ranked ahead of Ole Miss, which seems to be a perfectly reasonable consensus if you look at the AP poll, too. But are we sure that’s so reasonable?
Two stats we like to look at to measure a team’s quality are success rate (how often does a team make a play that improves its odds of winning) and explosiveness. Measure the differentials in each between offense and defense, then plot those out, and you’ll get a pretty clear look of who’s truly dominant in college football this season.
Explosive Play differential vs. Successful Play differential
Auburn & Ark make no sense Iowa & Iowa St are twinsies! Is Ole Miss undervalued? pic.twitter.com/h87SKCdOtr
That outer band that features Penn State, Texas, Miami, Ohio State and Indiana (and notably, not Oregon, Alabama, LSU or Texas A&M)? That’s where Ole Miss lives.
The Rebels have two losses this season, each by three points, both in games they outgained the winning team. They lost to LSU on the road and, yes, somehow lost to a dismal Kentucky team. But hey, LSU lost to USC, too. It has been a weird season.
SP+ loves Ole Miss. The Rebels check in at No. 4 there, behind only Ohio State, Texas and Georgia.
The FPI agrees, ranking the Rebels fifth.
In ESPN’s game control metric, no team is better. Ole Miss has the third-best average in-game win percentage. That suggests a lot of strange twists, and bad luck was involved with its losses. These are things the committee should be evaluating when comparing like teams.
But how about this comparison?
Team A: 7-2, 23 points per game scoring margin vs. FBS, 1 loss to unranked, three wins vs. SP+ top 40
Team B: 7-2, 19 points per game scoring margin vs. FBS, 1 loss to unranked, three wins vs. SP+ top 40
Pretty similar, eh?
Of course, one of them is Ole Miss. That’s Team A this time around.
Team B is Alabama, ranked five spots higher.
Sure, this situation can be resolved quite easily this weekend with a win over Georgia, but Ole Miss starting at the back of the pack of SEC contenders seems like a miss by the committee, even if the math will change substantially before the next rankings are revealed.
Oh, thanks so much for the No. 25 nod, committee. All Army has done is win every game without trailing the entire season. Last season, when Liberty waltzed through its weakest-in-the-nation schedule, the committee had no objections to giving the Flames enough love to make a New Year’s Six bowl. But Army? At No. 25? Thirteen spots behind Boise State, the Knights’ competition for the Group of 5’s bid? Something tells us some spies from Air Force have infiltrated the committee’s room in some sort of Manchurian Candidate scenario.
Sure, the Seminoles are terrible now, and yes, the committee this season has plenty of new faces, but that doesn’t mean folks in Tallahassee have forgiven or forgotten what happened a year ago. Before the committee’s playoff snub, FSU had won 19 straight games and averaged 39 points. Since the snub, the Noles are 1-9 and haven’t scored 21 points in any game. Who’s to blame for this? Mike Norvell? The coaching staff? DJ Uiagalelei and the other struggling QBs? Well, sure. But it’s much easier to just blame the committee. Those folks killed Florida State’s playoff hopes and ended their run of success. The least they could do this year is rank them No. 25 just for fun.
In a letter to the USC fan base Friday, athletic director Jen Cohen addressed the school’s stance on the pending Big Ten private capital deal that could infuse the conference with up to $2.4 billion.
“As we continue to evaluate the merits of this proposal or any others, our University leadership remains aligned in our stance that our fiduciary obligation to the University of Southern California demands we thoroughly evaluate any deals that could impact our long-term value and flexibility, no matter the short-term benefit,” Cohen said in the letter.
The proposed deal would extend the league’s grant of rights an extra 10 years to 2046 and create a new business entity, Big Ten Enterprises, that would house all leaguewide media rights and sponsorship deals. Each school, as well as the league office, would get shares of ownership of Big Ten Enterprises, while an investment fund that is tied to the University of California pension system would receive a 10% stake in the new entity in exchange for an infusion of over $2 billion to conference athletic departments.
USC and Michigan are the two Big Ten schools that have pushed back on the deal, which has otherwise been supported by a majority of the programs in the conference, as well as Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti.
In a call last month between USC and Michigan trustees, sources told ESPN’s Dan Wetzel that both programs were skeptical of the deal and talked about how it does not address the root issue — soaring costs — that has made cash so imperative for athletic departments. Just providing short-term money, sources said, does not solve that issue.
The schools also noted pending federal legislation that makes predicting the future of college athletics difficult, as well as a general apprehension about selling equity in a university asset — the conference media rights.
Beyond the potential impact to long-term value and flexibility in exchange for a “short-term benefit” that Cohen suggested (an extension to the grant of rights to 2046 could limit conference expansion and the departure of any programs, for example), she also noted in her letter that the $2.4 billion would be “unevenly distributed” among the schools and “create a tiered revenue distribution system moving forward.”
According to reporting from Wetzel and ESPN’s Pete Thamel, the exact equity amounts per school in Big Ten Enterprises are still being negotiated. There is expected to be a small gap in the percentage of the remaining equity among the schools that would favor the league’s biggest athletic brands, but it’s likely to be less than a percentage point. A tier system for initial payments is also expected, but with the lowest amount in the nine-figure range. Larger athletic departments could receive an amount above $150 million.
“We greatly value our membership in the Big Ten Conference and understand and respect the larger landscape,” Cohen said. “But we also recognize the power of the USC brand is far-reaching, deeply engaging, and incredibly valuable, and we will always fight first for what’s best for USC.”
The Big Ten is in the middle of a seven-year, $7 billion media rights package that runs through 2030. The money infusion is believed to be acutely needed at several Big Ten schools that are struggling to pay down debt on new construction and budgeting for direct revenue ($20.5 million this year and expected to rise annually) to athletes.
In a move that altered the college football landscape, USC left the Pac-12 and joined the Big Ten conference in 2024, alongside UCLA, Oregon and Washington, pushing the league to 18 members.
OAKLAND, Calif. — Celebrated former football coach John Beam, who was featured in the Netflix series “Last Chance U” that showcased the connections he made with players others wouldn’t gamble on, has died after being shot on the college campus where he worked, the Oakland Police Department said Friday.
The suspect, who police say knew and targeted Beam, 66, has been arrested.
Beam’s death a day after he was shot at Laney College rattled the community with scores holding a vigil outside the hospital before he died and remembering him as someone who always tried to help anyone.
Oakland Assistant Chief James Beere said the suspect went on campus for a “specific reason” but did not elaborate on what that was. “This was a very targeted incident,” he said.
Beere did not say how Beam and the suspect knew each other but said the suspect was known to loiter around the Laney campus. The suspect had played football at a high school where Beam had worked but not at the time the coach was employed there.
The suspect was taken into custody without any altercation and a gun has been recovered, the assistant chief added. Charges were still pending.
Authorities credited technology, specifically cameras at the college campus, private residences and on public transit, in tracking the suspect identified as Cedric Irving Jr.
Irving was arrested without incident at a commuter rail station in Oakland just after 3 a.m. on Friday and police recovered the gun. He was being held at a local jail on charges of murder and carrying a concealed weapon, according to Alameda County’s inmate locator. He is scheduled to be arraigned on Tuesday morning. It wasn’t immediately clear if he had an attorney who could speak on his behalf.
Irving’s brother, Samuael Irving, told the San Francisco Chronicle that he was stunned to learn of the arrest and that his brother excelled academically and athletically in high school, where he ran track and played football. The brother said Cedric grew distant from the family in recent years after an argument with their father. Irving recently lost his job as a security guard after an altercation, his brother said, and then was evicted from his apartment.
“I hope it isn’t him,” Samuael Irving said quietly. “The Cedric I knew wasn’t capable of murder – but the way things had been going, I honestly don’t know.”
Police said the shooting happened Thursday before noon, and officers arrived to find Beam shot. Few other details were available. It was the second shooting in two days at a school in Oakland.
The Netflix docuseries focused on athletes at junior colleges striving to turn their lives around, and Beam’s Laney College Eagles starred in the 2020 season. Beam gambled on players nobody else wanted. He developed deep relationships with his players while fielding a team that regularly competed for championships.
Beam’s family said in a statement that he was a “loving husband, father, grandfather, brother, uncle, coach, mentor and friend.”
“Our hearts are full from the outpouring of love,” the family said, requesting privacy.
Piedmont Police Chief Fred Shavies, who previously served as a deputy chief in the Oakland Police Department, said he was a friend, mentee and longtime admirer of Beam.
“John was so much more than a coach,” he said. “He was a father figure to thousands of not only men but young women in our community.”
Shavies said that he met Beam when he was in the eighth grade and that he supported him after Shavies lost his father in high school, calling him “an absolutely incredible human being.” He asked how Beam left his mark on so many people “with just 24 hours in a day, right?”
“You mean the world to me,” Rejzohn Wright said in a post with a photo of Beam.
His brother shared a photo of the coach alongside a broken heart emoji.
Mayor Barbara Lee described Beam as a “giant” in the city who mentored thousands of young people, including her own nephew, and “gave Oakland’s youth their best chance” at success.
“For over 40 years, he has shaped leaders on and off the field, and our community is shaken alongside his family,” Lee said.
Beam, who was serving as athletic director, joined Laney College in 2004 as a running backs coach and became head coach in 2012, winning two league titles. He retired from coaching in 2024 but stayed on at the school to shape its athletic programs. According to his biography on the college’s website, at least 20 of his players have gone on to the NFL.
Beam’s shooting came a day after a student was shot at Oakland’s Skyline High School. The student is in stable condition. Beam had previously worked at Skyline High School, and the suspect had played football there after Beam had already left for another job.
Lee said the back-to-back shootings on Oakland campuses demonstrate “the gun violence crisis playing out in real time.” She gave no indication that they were connected.
North Carolina coach Bill Belichick said Friday he will not pursue any NFL head coaching vacancies after his name surfaced in connection with the vacant New York Giants job.
After the Giants fired Brian Daboll on Monday, Belichick became the subject of speculation around the opening. In a statement posted on Instagram, Belichick said, “Despite circulating rumors, I have not and will not pursue any NFL head coaching vacancies.”
Before coming to college coaching, Belichick spent his entire career in the NFL — winning six Super Bowls with the New England Patriots.
But he won two Super Bowls with the Giants as a defensive coordinator under Bill Parcells in the 1986 and 1990 seasons.
“I have great respect and genuinely care for the New York Giants organization and both the Mara and Tisch families. The New York Giants played an important role in my life and in my coaching journey. It was a privilege for me to work for the Mara family and be a member of Coach Parcells’ staff for over a decade.”
Belichick is in his first season with North Carolina, which has won two straight games to bring its record to 4-5. He was asked during his news conference Tuesday about the speculation concerning the Giants and he reiterated he was focused on Saturday’s game against Wake Forest.
The statement Friday also reiterated his commitment to North Carolina, saying that has not wavered.
“We have tremendous support from the university, our alumni, and the entire Carolina community. My focus remains solely on continuing to improve this team, develop our players, and build a program that makes Tar Heel fans proud,” Belichick said.