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So the worst kept secret in Irish politics is finally out, and the people look set to head to the ballot boxes on 29 November.

The taoiseach employs several lofty explanations for why he has decided upon an early election, but it’s hard to look beyond political expediency.

The Fine Gael party has been flying in the polls since Simon Harris became leader in April, while the opposition is in freefall. Sinn Fein, Ireland’s main opposition party, dropped to 16% in one recent poll – the lowest level of support since 2019.

Its leader Mary Lou McDonald – once seen as Ireland’s first female taoiseach in waiting – has been battling a serious decline in support for a year, and is bogged down in firefighting a damaging series of internal party scandals, north and south of the border.

Why wait until next March for an election? Going now ensures the voters will be getting the first benefits of the recent bumper €10.5bn (£9bn) giveaway budget (“buying votes” according to the opposition) as the polling cards arrive.

Going the parliamentary distance risks the current government buoyancy being sunk by events. A week is a long time in politics, four months an eternity. Why take the risk?

This election will largely be fought on the same issues as 2020. Four years of this coalition government has done nothing to convince voters that Ireland’s chronic housing problem is healing. Homelessness has hit a record high of 14,500.

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The health system still creaks and groans under pressure, despite huge investment.

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Immigration may be a new factor; concerns over a surge in asylum-seekers arriving in Ireland mean the topic could be a key issue for the first time in an election here.

A chunky budget surplus, full employment, tax cuts and benefit hikes – what Sir Keir Starmer wouldn’t give to be in Simon Harris’s shoes.

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But for many citizens, Ireland is a rich country that often feels like a poor country. So the saying goes, at least.

Success for the government parties in this election will rely on reminding the voters of the first part of that truism and glossing over the latter part.

Extra pre-Christmas cash for punters, a hamstrung opposition and that new leader bounce all help greatly – Mr Harris kicks off this campaign in a strong position to be returned as Ireland’s prime minister.

It’s the government’s election to lose.

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COP30: Countries reach draft deal to help speed up climate action

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COP30: Countries reach draft deal to help speed up climate action

Countries attending COP30, the biggest climate meeting of the year, have agreed steps to help speed up climate action, according to a draft deal.

The meeting of leaders in the Brazilian city of Belem also saw them agree to reviewing related trade barriers and triple the money given to developing countries to help them withstand extreme weather events, according to the draft.

However, the summit’s president Correa do Lago said “roadmaps” on fossil fuels and forests would be published as there was no consensus on these issues.

The annual United Nations conference brings together world leaders, scientists, campaigners, and negotiators from across the globe, who agree on collective next steps for tackling climate change.

The two-week conference in the Amazon city of Belem was due to end at 6pm local time (9pm UK time) on Friday, but it dragged into overtime.

The standoff was between the EU, which pressed for language on transitioning away from fossil fuels, and the Arab Group of nations, including major oil exporter Saudi Arabia, which opposed it.

The impasse was resolved following all-night negotiations led by Brazil, negotiators said.

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The European Union’s climate commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, said on Saturday that the proposed accord was acceptable, even though the bloc would have liked more.

“We should support it because at least it is going in the right direction,” he said.

The Brazilian presidency scheduled a closing plenary session.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and about 80 countries, including the UK and coal-rich Colombia, had been pushing for a plan on how to “transition away from fossil fuels”.

This is a pledge all countries agreed to two years ago at COP28 – then did very little about since.

But scores of countries – including major oil and gas producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia – see this push as too prescriptive or a threat to their economies.

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Israel launches strikes on Gaza in further test of fragile ceasefire

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Israel launches strikes on Gaza in further test of fragile ceasefire

Israel says it has begun striking Hamas targets in Gaza, reportedly killing at least nine people, after what it called a “blatant violation of the ceasefire agreement”.

Local health authorities in Gaza said there had been three separate airstrikes, one hit a car in the densely populated Rimal neighbourhood, killing five people and wounding several others.

Shortly after the attack on the car, the Israeli air force hit two more targets in the central Gaza Strip, medics said.

They said at least four people died when two houses were struck in Deir Al-Balah city and Nuseirat camp.

The Israeli military said there had been a “blatant violation of the ceasefire agreement”.

It claimed a gunman had crossed into Israeli-held territory after exploiting “the humanitarian road in the area through which humanitarian aid enters southern Gaza”.

A Hamas official rejected the Israeli military’s allegations as baseless, calling them an “excuse to kill”, adding the Palestinian group was committed to the ceasefire agreement.

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The Israeli airstrikes are a further test of a fragile ceasefire with Hamas, which has held since 10 October following the two-year Gaza war.

Israel pulled back its troops, and the flow of aid into the territory has increased. But violence has not completely halted.

Palestinian health authorities say Israeli forces have killed 316 people in strikes on Gaza since the truce.

Meanwhile, Israel says three of its soldiers have been killed since the ceasefire began and it has attacked scores of militants.

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Europe scrambles for counter-proposal to US-Russian plan for Ukraine

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Europe scrambles for counter-proposal to US-Russian plan for Ukraine

The fast-moving developments on Trump’s Ukraine peace deal are dominating the G20 summit in South Africa, as European leaders scramble to put together a counter-proposal to the US-Russia 28-point plan and reinsert Ukraine into these discussions.

European countries are now working up proposals to put to President Trump ahead of his deadline of Thursday to agree a deal.

Ukraine is in a tight spot. It cannot reject Washington outright – it relies on US military support to continue this war – but neither can it accept the terms of a deal that is acutely favourable to Russia, requiring Ukraine to give up territory not even occupied by Moscow and reducing its army.

Overnight, the UK government has reiterated its position that any deal must deliver a “just and lasting peace”.

Ukraine war latest: Kyiv to discuss ending war in talks in Switzerland

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Keir Starmer calls for growth plan at G20

The prime minister, who spoke with E3 allies President Macron of France, Chancellor Merz of Germany and President Zelenskyy of Ukraine on the phone on Friday, is having more conversations today with key partners as they work out how to handle Trump and improve this deal for Ukraine.

One diplomatic source told me allies are being very careful not to criticise Trump or his approach for fear of exacerbating an already delicate situation.

Instead, the prime minister is directing his attacks at Russia.

Read more:
Trump’s 28-point Ukraine peace plan in full
Analysis: We could all pay if Europe doesn’t guarantee Ukraine’s security

Prime Minister Keir Starmer attends a plenary session on the first day of the G20 Leaders' Summit. Pic: Reuters
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Prime Minister Keir Starmer attends a plenary session on the first day of the G20 Leaders’ Summit. Pic: Reuters

“There is only one country around the G20 table that is not calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine and one country that is deploying a barrage of drones and missiles to destroy livelihoods and murder innocent civilians,” he said on Friday evening.

“Time and again, Russia pretends to be serious about peace, but its actions never live up to its words.”

Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

On the Trump plan, the prime minister said allies are meetin on Saturday “to discuss the current proposal on the table, and in support of Trump’s push for peace, look at how we can strengthen this plan for the next phase of negotiations”.

Strengthening the plan really means that they want to rebalance it towards Ukraine’s position and make it tougher on Russia.

“Ukraine has been ready to negotiate for months, while Russia has stalled and continued its murderous rampage. That is why we must all work together with both the US and Ukraine, to secure a just and lasting peace once and for all,” said the prime minister.

“We will continue to coordinate closely with Washington and Kyiv to achieve that. However, we cannot simply wait for peace.

“We must strain every sinew to secure it. We must cut off Putin’s finance flows by ending our reliance on Russian gas. It won’t be easy, but it’s the right thing to do.”

Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

Europeans hadn’t even seen this deal earlier in the week, in a sign that the US is cutting other allies out of negotiations – for now at least.

Starmer and other European leaders want to get to a position where Ukraine and Europe are at least at the table.

There is some discussion about whether European leaders such as Macron and Meloni might travel to Washington to speak to Trump early next week in order to persuade him of the European and Ukrainian perspective, as leaders did last August following the US-Russian summit in Alaska.

But Sky News understands there are no discussions about the PM travelling to Washington next week ahead of the budget.

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