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Offshore workers examine hydrocarbon samples aboard the Chevron Corp. Jack/St. Malo deepwater oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Louisiana, U.S., on Friday, May 18, 2018.

Luke Sharrett | Bloomberg | Getty Images

U.S. oil producers are looking forward to less regulations on crude production under a Donald Trump presidency, meaning higher oil supply and consequently lower prices.

But it’s not that straightforward: Trump who was announced Wednesday as the winner of the 2024 election, has also vowed to put more sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan barrels, meaning the global market could become tighter, potentially boosting prices.

At the same time, the increased likelihood of trade wars under Trump could dampen global economic growth and slow oil demand. So the picture for the market’s longer-term outlook is, well, decidedly mixed.

“Conceptually, the impact of a potential second Trump term on oil prices is ambiguous, with some short-term downside risk to Iran oil supply … and thus upside price risk,” Goldman Sachs commodities analysts wrote in a research note Monday. “But medium-term downside risk to oil demand and thus oil prices from downside risk to global GDP from a potential escalation in trade tensions.”

The U.S. has a 'clear competitive advantage' on energy, says TotalEnergies CEO

Trump expressed his enthusiasm for increased U.S. oil production while giving a speech from the Republican campaign headquarters in Florida on Wednesday, just hours before his victory was confirmed. He made a reference to Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., the independent candidate who he said would become a part of his team.

“Bobby, stay away from the oil, stay away from the liquid gold!” Trump said in a joking tone. “We have more than Saudi Arabia and Russia.” Kennedy is known for his history of environmental activism.

U.S. oil and gas production hit record highs under the Biden administration, which gradually changed its approach to the industry despite campaigning on pledges of environmental stewardship.

U.S. crude futures — both West Texas Intermediate and international benchmark Brent crude — are currently trading in the $70 to $75 per barrel range, which is lower than what many oil producers seek to balance their costs and budgets amid slowed global demand for oil and growing supply.

Energy sector is the best sector under Biden

But a further push to open drilling projects, putting more supply on the market, would lead to lower prices, thereby decreasing revenues for American producers, said Cole Smead, president and CEO of Smead Capital.

“If the Trump administration opens up federal leases for oil and gas, Federal lands would get 25% per barrel of revenues. You will have a lot of trouble finding an oil company that can make money at $52.50 per barrel with what they have left from a $70 barrel,” Smead said in emailed notes. “The only thing that will cause drill baby drill to happen is higher oil prices based on these margins.”

“Drill baby, drill is going to run into the energy vigilantes,” he added. “Now that equity investors in the energy business know what free cash flow looks like they won’t give it up. They will allow capital expenditures to go up over their dead body.”

‘Clear competitive advantage’

The U.S. is the world’s largest oil producer, accounting for 22% of the global total, according to the Energy Information Administration, with Saudi Arabia next, producing 11%. The vast majority of U.S. crude is consumed within the country, which is also the world’s largest oil consumer.

The CEO of French oil major TotalEnergies told CNBC over the weekend that whoever wins the presidency should ensure that the U.S. doesn’t lose its energy advantage.

“U.S. energy has been unleashed … since the last two, three years, production of oil has never been so high,” in the country, Patrick Pouyanne told CNBC in Abu Dhabi.

“For me, today, the U.S. has a clear competitive advantage on energy compared to many [in the] rest of the world,” he said. “So I will be surprised to see whoever is elected lose the competitive advantage.”

OPEC always plays the long game, Energy Aspects' Amrita Sen says

Many in the market forecast lower crude prices due to Trump’s encouragement of domestic oil production and greater supply. Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at London-based Energy Aspects, sees it differently due to the specter of sanctions.

“Every hedge fund I’ve spoken to thinks bearish, because [Trump has] tended to tweet about low oil prices … I actually think it’s the opposite,” she said. “There’s an enormous amount of sanctioned barrels right now in the market, especially Iranian volumes.” Iran is currently producing 3.5 million barrels per day of crude or more, Sen said, with 1.8 million of those being exported, as sanctions and their enforcement loosened under the Biden administration.

“You could lose a million barrels per day of that … when Trump was in power, Iranian exports were just 400,000 barrels per day,” Sen said. “Now I’m not saying it’s going to go down all the way, because smuggling networks are bigger and better probably now, but you could lose a million there,” she said, adding that some Venezuelan barrels could go off the market as well.

For Smead, the outlook is bearish, as he predicts lower prices putting many producers — particularly those with higher production costs — in a less-than-ideal situation.

“The price of goods that are produced is the number one factor in America’s policies,” he said. “If you are not the low-cost producer, you should be scared.”

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Illinois awards $18.4M in restored NEVI funds to build EV charging stations

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Illinois awards .4M in restored NEVI funds to build EV charging stations

Illinois is expanding its EV charging network with $18.4 million in federal grants that were restored after being unlawfully frozen by the Trump administration. The grants come from the second round of the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) program, which supports Illinois’s goal of registering 1 million EVs by 2030.

Governor JB Pritzker, Attorney General Kwame Raoul, and the Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT) announced Wednesday that the money will fund 25 new fast charging stations along interstate corridors.

Each new station will include at least four DC fast charging ports, which can top up an EV from empty in under 30 minutes. In total, the projects will add 167 new charging ports across the state.

Illinois is slated to receive $148 million in NEVI funds through the federal Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Last year, the first round of awards sent $25.3 million to 37 charging station projects. With this new round, IDOT has awarded $43.8 million so far, covering 62 projects and 349 charging ports.

Pritzker said, “I’m thankful for the quick action of our attorney general in the fight to restore these funds that President Trump was unlawfully withholding. With these resources rightfully coming back to Illinois, I look forward to taking another step forward in our continued efforts to expand EV infrastructure and boost local economies across Illinois.”

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In May, Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul joined 16 other attorneys general in suing the Federal Highway Administration for withholding the remainder of the appropriated funds. A judge in June ordered the administration to release funding appropriated to Illinois and 13 other states. Raoul said, “I am pleased that our coalition’s work has resulted in this money finally reaching Illinois, which ultimately boosts our state’s economy.”

Illinois EPA Director James Jennings noted that these NEVI-funded stations will complement the more than 450 charging stations already supported by the state. “Together, state agencies are working to offer EV drivers multiple charging options at numerous locations, ensuring accessible and convenient travel throughout Illinois.”

The 25 projects selected were chosen through a competitive process last fall. IDOT says the next round of NEVI funding applications will open in late 2025.

Read more: The biggest solar farm east of the Mississippi is now powering Chicago


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Is Rivian mulling the idea of offering customers a purple exterior?

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Is Rivian mulling the idea of offering customers a purple exterior?

A Rivian owner and EV enthusiast recently shared images of a purple R1S Quad out in public with manufacturer plates. Could it be a new exterior color Rivian will offer customers, or is this just a rare shade applied to a one-off test vehicle? Regardless of its future, a purple Rivian is already garnering plenty of comments from the online community.

  • Purple Rivian
  • Purple Rivian

Rivian owner shares images of a purple R1S Quad

Hilbert (@Hilbe) shared the three images above on X, with the caption, “What do you think Rivian will name this color? Wrong answers only.” The answers are funny, and many are precisely what you probably imagined.

If you immediately thought Grimace from McDonald’s lore, so did I and several commenters to Hilbert’s post. Upon doing some digging, I found that images of this exact purple Rivian were actually leaked eight months ago, making their way through the Rivian community on Reddit. See below:

As you can see from the second image above, this Quad Motor R1S is donning manufacturer plates, meaning this isn’t a custom paint job from a personal owner, but a bona fide model still owned and operated by Rivian.

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Furthermore, those plates are the same in multiple sightings, hinting that there is currently only one purple Rivian R1S Quad out in the world (at least on public roads).

Whether this is just a unique color the paint shop experimented with on a one-of-a-kind test vehicle or could become an actual option in the Gear Shop remains unclear at this time, although we did reach out to a representative for Rivian for more details and received an expected response:

We have nothing to add. As you know, we don’t comment on any speculation.

They didn’t say that purple was off the table (or the configurator!)

Rivian’s R1S and R1T configurator could use purple or any other unique exterior color options, as its boldest currently available option is “Rivian Blue.” Be sure to let us know what you think about a purple Rivian in the comments, much like X users did for Chris Hilbert, of which I read through all 130+ and have a few to highlight below.

I will stick to the PG responses and leave out anything related to an eggplant emoji and how that may have anything to do with any fictional purple characters (you sick puppies). Here we go:

  • “Gross Purple”
  • “Barney”
  • “Purple Rain”
  • “Plum Crazy”
  • “Thanos Purple”
  • “Violet Beauregarde”
  • “Purivian”
  • “Electric Eggplant”
  • “Grape Ape”
  • “Amethyst Twilight”
  • “Afternoon Purple IV”
  • “Grape Escape”
  • and last but not least… “Poiple.”

What would you call this shade? Should Rivian bring purple to the Gear Shop configurator? Let us know in the comments below. As a Rivian owner, I highly recommend doing a test drive to see what this brand is about. Afterward, email me and let me know what you thought of your ride. I’m interested to hear about it!

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EVs and batteries fuel the US VPP boom, hitting 37.5 GW in 2025

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EVs and batteries fuel the US VPP boom, hitting 37.5 GW in 2025

The US virtual power plant (VPP) market is growing fast, with 37.5 gigawatts of behind-the-meter flexible capacity now online, according to a new Wood Mackenzie report. VPPs connect small energy systems and smart devices into a single network managed by an energy company or utility. That can include residential solar panels, battery storage, EVs, and smart thermostats. When the grid needs help during peak demand or emergencies, they can be tapped – and you get paid for participating.

Wood Mackenzie’s “2025 North America Virtual Power Plant Market” report shows that the market is expanding more broadly than deeply. The number of company deployments, unique buyers (offtakers), and market and utility programs each grew by more than 33% in the past year. But total capacity grew at a slower pace – just under 14%. “Utility program caps, capacity accreditation reforms, and market barriers have prevented capacity from growing as fast as market activity,” said Ben Hertz-Shargel, global head of grid edge at Wood Mackenzie.

Residential VPP customers are gaining ground

Residential customers are making a bigger dent in wholesale market capacity, increasing their share to 10.2% from 8.8% in 2024. But small customers still face roadblocks, mainly due to limits on data access for enrollment and market settlement.

Battery storage and EVs are also playing a bigger role. Deployments that include batteries or EVs now account for 61% as many as those that include smart thermostats, which have long dominated VPP programs.

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Leading states and markets

California, Texas, New York, and Massachusetts are leading the pack, making up 37% of all VPP deployments. In wholesale markets, PJM (which manages the electric grid for 13 states and DC) and ERCOT (the Texas grid), both home to massive data center commitments, also have the highest disclosed VPP offtake capacity. “While data centers are the source of new load, there’s an enormous opportunity to tap VPPs as the new source of grid flexibility,” Hertz-Shargel said.

Offtake growth and new business models

The top 25 VPP offtakers each procured more than 100 megawatts this year. Over half of all offtakers expanded their deployments by at least 30% compared to last year. That’s fueling the rise of a new “independent distributed power producer” model, where companies aim to use grid service revenue and energy arbitrage to finance third-party-owned storage for electricity retailers.

Policy pushback

Not everyone is on board with how utilities are approaching distributed energy resources (DERs). Many VPP aggregators and software providers oppose utilities putting DERs into their rate base under the Distributed Capacity Procurement model.* “This model is seen as limiting access of private capital and aggregators from the DER market, rather than leveraging customer and third-party-owned resources,” Hertz-Shargel explained. He added that most wholesale market experts believe FERC Order 2222 was a missed opportunity and won’t significantly improve market access.

*I really like this model, personally. I leased two Tesla Powerwalls under Green Mountain Power’s Lease Energy Storage program in Vermont for $55 a month, and it’s an excellent VPP program that’s grown much more rapidly than other models, such as bring-your-own batteries.

Read more: California’s grid gets a record power assist from a 100k home battery fleet


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Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.

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