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A seismic wave detected shortly before the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption in January 2022 could help scientists predict future volcanic activity in remote ocean areas. A study published by the American Geophysical Union suggests that the seismic wave, detected 750 kilometres from the volcano, was likely triggered by a rupture in the oceanic crust. This break allowed seawater to interact with magma near the volcano’s magma chamber, leading to the eruption. The research offers insight into early eruption indicators, which could be crucial for tsunami warning systems.

Precursor Signals Could Improve Tsunami Alerts

As per the study published, a Rayleigh wave was recorded at two distant seismic stations in Fiji and Futuna fifteen minutes before the January 15 eruption. It raised interest among researchers studying volcanic triggers. According to volcanologist Mie Ichihara from the University of Tokyo, the seismic activity likely indicated a significant fracture in the crust beneath the caldera. This allowed seawater and magma to mix, triggering a violent eruption. The event underlines the need for effective early-warning mechanisms for island nations vulnerable to volcanic eruptions and the tsunamis they can cause.

Analysing Seismic Activity for Predictive Insights

Takuro Horiuchi, the study’s lead author and a graduate researcher in volcanology at the University of Tokyo, notes that seismic waves often accompany volcanic eruptions, but these signals are typically subtle and limited to the immediate vicinity of the volcano. However, this particular seismic wave travelled hundreds of kilometres, indicating a major geological event prior to the eruption. Horiuchi and Ichihara believe the fracture process may have triggered extensive movement within the crust, ultimately leading to the explosive eruption.

Learning from Rare Caldera-forming Eruptions

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption was unusual due to its underwater location and immense energy release. Ichihara points out that understanding the mechanisms behind such events is challenging because there are few documented instances of caldera-forming eruptions, particularly in oceanic environments. The seismic wave preceding the eruption presents one possible sequence of events, although Ichihara cautions that different processes may be involved in other cases.

Future Application in Disaster Preparedness

Ichihara suggests that detecting seismic signals from volcanic eruptions could give local observatories valuable preparation time. If future eruptions produce similar seismic signals, tsunami-prone regions may have more time to respond, providing a significant advantage for disaster preparedness in vulnerable areas.

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Future Supercontinent Pangea Ultima Could Trigger Mass Extinction

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Future Supercontinent Pangea Ultima Could Trigger Mass Extinction

A recent study led by Dr Alexander Farnsworth, a Senior Research Associate at the University of Bristol, warns that extreme global temperatures could eventually drive mammals, including humans, towards extinction. This research, published in Nature Geoscience, anticipates a distant yet dramatic future for Earth in which the continents merge to form a single, massive landmass called Pangea Ultima. The resulting climate changes could make much of the planet uninhabitable, fundamentally altering life as we know it.

Formation of Pangea Ultima: A Triple Climate Threat

The study was published in the journal Nature GeoscienceThe Earth’s tectonic plates are constantly moving, and scientists predict they will ultimately converge to form Pangea Ultima. This supercontinent’s unique configuration would exacerbate the climate crisis by creating a “continentality effect,” where much of the land would be far from cooling oceanic influences. Combined with increased solar brightness and higher carbon dioxide levels due to tectonic volcanic activity, the landmass could experience widespread temperatures between 40 and 50°C (104-122°F), with even greater extremes in some regions. Dr Farnsworth highlighted that under these conditions, humans and other mammals may struggle to regulate body heat, ultimately threatening their survival.

Heat Tolerance Limits of Mammals

Historically, mammals have evolved to survive various environmental challenges, but their ability to cope with extreme heat has limitations. Prolonged exposure to temperatures above human tolerance could prove fatal. Researchers estimate that only 8-16% of Pangea Ultima would remain habitable for mammals, creating severe difficulties in securing food and water.

Current Climate Crisis as a Reminder

Though this scenario is millions of years away, co-author Dr Eunice Lo, Research Fellow in Climate Change and Health at the University of Bristol, stresses that immediate climate action is critical. She notes that current greenhouse gas emissions are already leading to severe heat waves, highlighting the need to achieve net-zero emissions.

Implications Beyond Earth’s Future

These findings may also assist scientists in assessing the habitability of exoplanets. According to Dr Farnsworth, the configuration of continents can heavily influence climate, suggesting that even planets within a solar system’s habitable zone might not be suitable for human life.

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These Black Holes Are Changing Scientists’ Perception About Their Formation

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These Black Holes Are Changing Scientists' Perception About Their Formation

Astronomers are watching two unusual black holes, each presenting phenomena that challenge current understanding of these cosmic giants. One, a “serial killer” black hole, is about to devour its second star within five years, while the other, part of the newly discovered triple system V404 Cygni, has disrupted long-held theories of black hole formation.

The Black Hole “Serial Killer” Reaches for Another Star

Located 215 million light-years from Earth, this supermassive black hole first caught scientists’ attention five years ago with a bright flare. The flare came from a star that had drifted too close to it, sparking what astronomers call a tidal disruption event, or AT1910qix. Gravitational forces stretched and tore apart the star, leaving part of its remains around the black hole and launching the rest into space.

Led by Dr Matt Nicholl of Queen’s University Belfast, a team of astronomers has tracked this remnant disc over several years using high-powered telescopes such as the Chandra X-ray Observatory and the Hubble Space Telescope. Recently, another star has started passing through this disc every 48 hours, creating bright X-ray bursts with each collision. Dr Nicholl describes it as similar to a diver creating splashes in a pool each time they hit the water, with the star as the diver and the disc as the pool.

“What’s uncertain is what will ultimately happen to this star,” Dr Nicholl said. “It could be pulled into the black hole, or it may eventually disintegrate from these repeated impacts.”

A Rare Triple Black Hole System in Cygnus

Meanwhile, in the constellation Cygnus, a rare triple system is raising questions about black hole origins. Known as V404 Cygni, this system includes a nine-solar-mass black hole and two orbiting stars, one much farther away than astronomers had thought possible. Kevin Burdge, an MIT research fellow, notes that a supernova typically pushes any distant companions too far to remain gravitationally bound. But in this system, a distant star orbits at a staggering 300 billion miles.

In their Nature paper, Dr Burdge and his team proposed that this black hole may have formed without a supernova explosion, possibly “quietly” collapsing without ejecting its nearby companions. This hypothesis has sparked interest among scientists, as it hints at new black hole formation processes yet to be fully understood.

Daniel Holz, an astrophysicist at the University of Chicago, noted that while unlikely, nature often defies assumptions. This discovery could open a new chapter in black hole research.

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NASA’s Parker Solar Probe Makes Final Venus Flyby Before Sun Encounter

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NASA’s Parker Solar Probe Makes Final Venus Flyby Before Sun Encounter

NASA’s Parker Solar Probe will make a close approach to Venus on Wednesday, marking the spacecraft’s seventh and final flyby of the planet. This manoeuvre will set the probe on a course for its historic plunge toward the sun, bringing it within 3.8 million miles of our star’s surface — closer than any human-made object has ventured. Nour Raouafi, Project Scientist at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, described this approach as “almost landing on a star,” likening it to the significance of the 1969 moon landing.

Venus Flybys as Critical Milestones

The Parker Solar Probe, launched in 2018, relies on gravitational assists from Venus to gradually reduce its distance from the sun, using the planet’s gravitational pull to adjust its orbit. Yanping Guo, Mission Design and Navigation Manager at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, emphasised that this final Venus flyby is crucial in positioning the probe for its upcoming close encounter with the sun.

While designed for solar exploration, the probe’s instruments have provided valuable data on Venus. During previous flybys, Parker’s Wide-Field Imager (WISPR) managed to capture images through Venus’s thick atmosphere, revealing surface details like continents and plateaus. The probe also recorded emissions from Venus’s nightside, providing insights into its surface composition and temperature, which is around 860 degrees Fahrenheit (460 Celsius).

A Closer Look at Venusian Surface

This week’s flyby will allow scientists to point WISPR toward Venus once more to capture new surface images, including areas with varied landforms. Noam Izenberg, a planetary geologist at APL, noted that this close approach offers a unique chance to study differences in Venus’s surface features, potentially uncovering information about its geology and thermal properties.

Approaching the Sun’s Frontier

On December 24, the Parker Solar Probe will skim the sun’s outer layer at speeds of up to 430,000 miles per hour (692,010 km/h). Although mission control will lose contact during this close pass, engineers hope to receive a signal on December 27 confirming the probe’s success. This achievement could unlock significant insights into the sun’s outer atmosphere, its intense heat, and its magnetic dynamics, further advancing our understanding of solar phenomena.

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