Should we be worried about a Donald Trump presidency?

Published

2 weeks ago

November 6, 2024

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A man described by not one but two of his closest former aides as a fascist will become the most powerful man in the world when he takes office. How worried should we be?

Very, say another dozen White House staffers who served under Donald Trump and watched him in action for his first four years in power.

In a second term, they are warning that those who once tried to prevent him from acting on his worst impulses will no longer be there to rein him in.

Follow latest: Trump wins US election – as world leaders congratulate him

“The grown ups”, as they were called in Mr Trump’s first administration, will have gone, replaced by people more aligned with his agenda and pushing their own.

What is that agenda and what is to come? That is harder to say. We have learned not to take Donald J Trump literally – his empty promises, lies, and false threats come thick and fast.

The first time round, many of his promises came to nothing; to build a border wall and have Mexico pay for it, to bring peace to the Middle East, to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme, and Iran’s too.

But we can say what is likely; trade wars with China, Mexico, and Canada seem probable.

The extent of the tariffs Mr Trump imposes are harder to predict but the impact on the global economy will most likely be considerable.

He could rip up more treaties the US has signed, including climate commitments made by his predecessors.

Mr Trump is likely to undo much of the Biden administration’s work to reverse climate change and the negative impact on the planet may be substantial.

And he is likely to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war largely on Moscow’s terms if his words and those of his team are anything to go by.

His running mate JD Vance says Russia will keep the land it has taken and receive a guarantee of Ukrainian neutrality. Putin could not have hoped for more.

Those hoping for an end to the war in Gaza may be disappointed too.

Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are close allies.

He is likely to give the Israelis plenty of latitude when it comes to the conflict. And there are fears he would not restrain Israel in any future confrontations with Iran unlike the Biden administration, with all the risks of a wider Middle Eastern war that might ensue.

NATO’s uncertain future

Trump’s impact on NATO is harder to predict. His team has floated various plans for the alliance. They all arguably weaken America’s support for it.

Without America’s cast-iron guarantee, will other countries seek their own security arrangements? It seems likely.

One of the great pillars of the post-world war order will have been weakened. But Mr Trump in his first term showed contempt for all its multi-lateral, multinational organisations.

America swings through cycles of isolationism, retreating from the world, then having to re-engage at huge cost to protect its interests.

Mr Trump may prove unwilling to learn the lessons of that history.

Those who regard America, for all its faults, as a positive influence in the world, an example to follow, will be most worried and disheartened.

A demagogic populist, regarded as a fascist by some of those who know him best and who openly admires authoritarians and dictators, will be taking up the reins of power again in the world’s most powerful democracy.

Half of American voters have opted for a man who refused to accept election defeat four years ago, used lies and dirty tricks to try and undermine its result, and stood by while an angry mob ransacked the citadel of American government.

All of that will only embolden other strongmen the world over and damage, perhaps beyond repair, the democracy that Americans have long believed stands as an example for all the world to follow.

World

Four dead and more in hospital with methanol poisoning after drinking ‘free shots’ in Laos

Published

8 hours ago

November 21, 2024

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Four dead and more in hospital with methanol poisoning after drinking 'free shots' in Laos

Four people have died and a number of others are in hospital after allegedly being served drinks laced with methanol.

According to reports, six British travellers are among those being treated in Laos, after falling ill last week.

Two Danish women in their 20s and a 56-year-old US citizen are reported to have died in what authorities fear was a mass poisoning.

On Thursday, it was confirmed an Australian woman – named as Bianca Jones, 19, from Melbourne – had become the fourth person to die.

Her friend Holly Bowles is being treated in hospital after calling for medical help at their accommodation, Nana’s Backpackers Hostel.

In a statement given to the Herald Sun, Ms Jones’s family said: “It is with the heaviest of hearts that we share the news that our beloved daughter and sister, Bianca Jones, has passed away.

“She was surrounded by love, and we are comforted by the knowledge that her incredible spirit touched so many lives during her time with us.

“We want to express our deepest gratitude for the overwhelming support, love, and prayers we’ve received from across Australia.”

One of the British travellers being treated in hospital has been named as Simone White, 28, from Orpington, Kent.

According to The Times newspaper, she became ill last week in Vang Vieng – a resort popular with backpackers.

Ms White’s friend, Bethany Clarke, a healthcare worker also from Orpington, posted on a Laos Backpacking Facebook group to warn other travellers.

“Urgent – please avoid all local spirits. Our group stayed in Vang Vieng and we drank free shots offered by one of the bars,” she wrote.

“Just avoid them as so not worth it. Six of us who drank from the same place are in hospital currently with methanol poisoning.”

New Zealand’s Foreign Ministry also confirmed one of its citizens was also unwell in Laos and could be a victim of methanol poisoning.

World

Ukraine fires UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles at targets inside Russia

Published

13 hours ago

November 21, 2024

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Ukraine fires UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles at targets inside Russia

Ukraine has fired British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles into Russia, a source has told Sky News.

The UK and Ukraine have not yet confirmed the use of the long-range weapons in Russia but their deployment has been widely reported in British media.

Footage has been posted on Telegram reportedly showing wreckage from one of the missiles in Russia’s Kursk region, which borders Ukraine.

Ukraine war: Follow latest updates

The UK had previously said that British tanks, anti-tank missiles and other military equipment could be used inside Russia as part of Ukraine’s defence – but had kept restrictions on the use of long-range missiles.

It comes just days after US President Joe Biden authorised the same policy shift.

Russia’s defence ministry said on Tuesday that Ukraine had fired six US-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) in the Bryansk region.

A Russian state news agency cited the ministry as saying the missiles caused no casualties.

Missiles will have a ‘marginal effect’

Sky News’ security and defence editor Deborah Haynes says Ukraine’s allies have been pursuing a strategy of ambiguity and “it remains to be seen whether we get official confirmation on this from the UK or from Ukraine”.

“There is also the uncomfortable reality that Ukraine’s stockpile of Storm Shadow missiles is severely limited, so their use will only have a marginal effect.”

Meanwhile, Sky’s military analyst Sean Bell says he would be amazed if this attack really marks the first time such a missile has been used by Ukraine to hit inside Russia.

“I would be quite surprised if they haven’t been used for selected targets further on [into Russia] because they are… very, very effective at striking Russian logistics hubs, headquarters, ammunition dumps,” he said.

The same missiles are also used by French forces, using the alternative name SCALP, and are made by the Anglo-French arms manufacturer, MBDA.

What are storm shadow cruise missiles?

The air-to-air missile has a strike capability of nearly 200 miles (300km) – meaning it would potentially allow Ukraine to hit further into Russian territory.

The missile weighs 1.3 tonnes and is just over 5m long.

It is launched from the air, and in theory can be used from Ukraine’s Soviet-made jets.

UK-owned Storm Shadow missiles are made in Stevenage by MBDA. Each cruise missile costs an estimated £2m.

The Storm Shadow was originally developed as a project between the UK and France in the mid 1990s.

It was used in Iraq in 2003, while France, Italy and the UK used it in Libya in 2011.

The missiles have also been used to bomb Islamic State targets in Syria and Iraq.

Embassies shut over air attack fears

Earlier, the US and some other Western embassies in Kyiv closed amid fears Russia was preparing a major air attack on the Ukrainian capital.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had been asking Kyiv’s allies to give his troops the capability to strike deeper behind Russian lines for over a year.

Mr Biden’s change of policy is linked to changing tactics by the Russians, which began deploying North Korean ground troops to supplement its own forces.

The White House is set to announce more military aid for Ukraine worth up to $275m (£217m), the US defence secretary has said.

Lloyd Austin said the support would “meet critical battlefield needs” and would include munitions for rocket systems, artillery and tank weapons, along with anti-personnel landmines.

Russian politician Maria Butina and Donald Trump Jr, the son of US President-elect Donald Trump, both warned that Mr Biden’s decision over Ukraine’s usage of long-range missiles could spark the start of a third world war.

Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold required for the use of nuclear weapons after the US move, adding to fears the conflict could escalate.

World

Spain to legalise about 300,000 undocumented migrants a year

Published

19 hours ago

November 20, 2024

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Spain to legalise about 300,000 undocumented migrants a year

Spain is to legalise about 300,000 undocumented migrants a year – at a time that many European countries are seeking to limit or deter migration.

The policy, approved on Tuesday by Spain’s left-wing minority coalition government, aims to tackle the country’s ageing workforce and low birthrate.

Around 250,000 registered foreign workers a year are needed to maintain the country’s welfare state, according to migration minister Elma Saiz.

The scheme, due to run from May next year until 2027, will allow foreigners living in Spain without proper documentation to obtain work permits and residency.

The exact number of foreigners living in Spain without documentation is unclear.

However, around 54,000 undocumented migrants reached Spain so far this year by sea or land, according to government figures.

Many arrive via the Canary Islands, a Spanish archipelago located off the coast of northwestern Africa.

The figure compares to the 30,000 people who have arrived in the UK via small boats across the Channel so far in 2024.

The UK, as well as other European nations, including Germany, France, and the Netherlands, have in recent years taken tougher stances on migration.

However, Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has often described his government’s migration policies as a way to combat the country’s low birthrate.

The government’s new policy simplifies the administrative processes for short and long-term visas and provides migrants with additional workplace protections.

It also extends a visa offered previously to job-seekers for three months to one year.

Many migrants make a living in Spain’s underground economy as fruit pickers, caretakers, delivery drivers, or other low-paid jobs.

Migration minister Ms Saiz said the government’s new policy would help prevent abuse and “serve to combat mafias, fraud and the violation of rights”.