Should we be worried about a Donald Trump presidency?
A man described by not one but two of his closest former aides as a fascist will become the most powerful man in the world when he takes office. How worried should we be?
Very, say another dozen White House staffers who served under Donald Trump and watched him in action for his first four years in power.
In a second term, they are warning that those who once tried to prevent him from acting on his worst impulses will no longer be there to rein him in.
Follow latest: Trump wins US election – as world leaders congratulate him
“The grown ups”, as they were called in Mr Trump’s first administration, will have gone, replaced by people more aligned with his agenda and pushing their own.
What is that agenda and what is to come? That is harder to say. We have learned not to take Donald J Trump literally – his empty promises, lies, and false threats come thick and fast.
The first time round, many of his promises came to nothing; to build a border wall and have Mexico pay for it, to bring peace to the Middle East, to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme, and Iran’s too.
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What are ‘Trumponomics’?
But we can say what is likely; trade wars with China, Mexico, and Canada seem probable.
The extent of the tariffs Mr Trump imposes are harder to predict but the impact on the global economy will most likely be considerable.
He could rip up more treaties the US has signed, including climate commitments made by his predecessors.
Mr Trump is likely to undo much of the Biden administration’s work to reverse climate change and the negative impact on the planet may be substantial.
And he is likely to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war largely on Moscow’s terms if his words and those of his team are anything to go by.
Donald Trump with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September. Pic: Reuters
His running mate JD Vance says Russia will keep the land it has taken and receive a guarantee of Ukrainian neutrality. Putin could not have hoped for more.
Those hoping for an end to the war in Gaza may be disappointed too.
Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are close allies.
Donald Trump met Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago in July
He is likely to give the Israelis plenty of latitude when it comes to the conflict. And there are fears he would not restrain Israel in any future confrontations with Iran unlike the Biden administration, with all the risks of a wider Middle Eastern war that might ensue.
NATO’s uncertain future
Trump’s impact on NATO is harder to predict. His team has floated various plans for the alliance. They all arguably weaken America’s support for it.
Without America’s cast-iron guarantee, will other countries seek their own security arrangements? It seems likely.
One of the great pillars of the post-world war order will have been weakened. But Mr Trump in his first term showed contempt for all its multi-lateral, multinational organisations.
America swings through cycles of isolationism, retreating from the world, then having to re-engage at huge cost to protect its interests.
Mr Trump may prove unwilling to learn the lessons of that history.
Those who regard America, for all its faults, as a positive influence in the world, an example to follow, will be most worried and disheartened.
A demagogic populist, regarded as a fascist by some of those who know him best and who openly admires authoritarians and dictators, will be taking up the reins of power again in the world’s most powerful democracy.
The US Capitol riot on 6 January 2021. Pic: AP
Half of American voters have opted for a man who refused to accept election defeat four years ago, used lies and dirty tricks to try and undermine its result, and stood by while an angry mob ransacked the citadel of American government.
All of that will only embolden other strongmen the world over and damage, perhaps beyond repair, the democracy that Americans have long believed stands as an example for all the world to follow.
World
US blocks Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and 80 other officials from United Nations’ annual meeting in New York
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and 80 other officials have been blocked from attending September’s annual meeting of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio has revoked the US visas of delegates from the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), and denied others from applying for one.
It is the latest step by Donald Trump’s administration to target Palestinians with visa restrictions, and follows the suspension of a programme to allow injured children from Gaza to receive treatment in the US.
Mahmoud Abbas addressed the general assembly in 2024, but is barred from next month’s meeting. Pic: Reuters
“It is in our national security interests to hold the PLO and PA accountable for not complying with their commitments, and for undermining the prospects for peace,” a statement from the US State Department said.
It added that, to be considered partners for peace, both groups “must consistently repudiate terrorism, and end incitement to terrorism in education, as required by US law and as promised by the PLO”.
Offensive will cause ‘intolerable deaths’
Several US allies, including France, Malta, and Australia have announced plans to recognise Palestine as a state at September’s United Nations General Assembly. Canada and the UK will too, unless Israel meets certain conditions.
Israel declared Gaza’s largest city a dangerous combat zone on Friday.
The army launched a planned offensive that has drawn international condemnation.
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Thick smoke rises from Gaza City after Israeli strikes
Foreign ministers from Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Norway, Slovenia and Spain released a joint statement saying the military operations in Gaza City will cause “intolerable deaths of innocent Palestinian civilians”.
Gaza latest: Israel’s Gaza City offensive condemned
Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are sheltering in Gaza City while enduring famine.
An Israeli armoured vehicle in northern Gaza on Friday. Pic: AP
Palestinians ride a truck carrying humanitarian aid in Gaza City. Pic: AP
The Palestinian ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Riyad Mansour, said Mr Abbas had planned to lead the delegation to the UN meetings and was expected to address the general assembly at the general debate, which begins on 23 September.
He was also expected to attend a high-level meeting co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia on 22 September about a two-state solution, a broad idea involving Israel coexisting with an independent Palestinian state.
The State of Palestine is an observer member of the UN, meaning it can speak at meetings but not vote on resolutions.
The State of Palestine cannot vote on UN resolutions. Pic: AP
US decision ‘contravenes international law’
The Palestinian Authority “expressed its deep regret and astonishment” at the visa decision, calling it “a violation of US commitments” as the host of the UN, and claiming it “contravenes international law”.
UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said the world body would be seeking clarification in the “hope that this will be resolved”.
Hundreds of diplomats left when Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu began speaking at the general assembly in 2024. Pic: Reuters
The State Department said that the Palestinian Authority’s mission to the UN, comprising officials who are permanently based there, would not be included in the restrictions.
Under a 1947 UN agreement, the US is generally required to allow access for foreign diplomats to the UN in New York.
But Washington has said it can deny visas for security, extremism and foreign policy reasons.
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The death toll in Gaza has now risen to 63,025, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants.
It also reported five more malnutrition-related deaths in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number during the war to 322, with 121 of them children.
World
Brazil implores businesses to attend major climate summit, despite ‘second thoughts’ amid Trump backlash
The Brazilian hosts of the biggest climate meeting of the year have implored businesses to attend in November, amid concerns some are backing away from the climate agenda into the shadow of Donald Trump.
In an interview with Sky News, Ana Toni, chief executive of the COP30 climate summit in November, admitted some companies were having “second thoughts” about the global switch to green economies because policymakers were creating uncertainty.
The US President Donald Trump has been attacking wind farms and waging tariff wars that could slow the transition to green energy.
Banks including HSBC and Barclays have ditched a net zero alliance set up just four years ago by Mark Carney, now the Canadian Prime Minister.
Ana Toni, Brazil’s climate secretary, is chief executive of the COP30 climate talks. Pic: Reuters
But even before Trump took office, tech companies were quietly dropping climate targets to prioritise energy-hungry AI, and other businesses were “greenhushing” their climate initiatives for fear of backlash.
In this environment, there are fears fewer business leaders will attend the annual talks, which are also being hosted in a city on the edge of the Amazon that hasn’t enough hotel rooms.
On Friday, the COP30 team wrote to business leaders urging them to “step forward, not back” and travel to Belem, despite “logistical challenges” and the “background of systemic uncertainty”.
Ana Toni told Sky News: “We are very concerned that the enabling conditions must be there so that the private sector can also deliver where they do best, which is bringing in technology, bringing innovation and accelerating the process of decarbonisation.”
In August the share price of Danish wind farm developer plummeted after the US halted its Rhode Island wind farm, while the British Tories and Reform parties are also attacking net zero.
Ana Toni met with King Charles and leaders of other COP summits at Clarence House last year. Pic: Reuters
But Ms Toni there is “nothing to panic [about], because we can see that the transition is inevitable,” citing major progress in China, India and Europe and Brazil.
Referring to the US’s withdrawal from the COP process, she said: “198 countries minus one is not zero. And we will put all our efforts of working with the 197 countries that want to go forward and want to protect their population.”
“Climate action is not only [still] cool, it is necessary,” Ms Toni said.
“We all need to face reality. We are going through a huge climate crisis… If you’re not part of the solution, you’re part of the problem. Companies understand that.”
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