Votes are still being counted in the US election, meaning the race is not yet won – but Donald Trump is just a handful of electoral votes from victory.
Overnight developments have thrilled Republicans, with Mr Trump going well ahead in the race for the magic number of 270 electoral college votes to win.
While the fight isn’t officially over yet for Kamala Harris– her opponent no longer needs the four remaining key battleground states to win, and he’s already claimed victory.
Here’s the story of the night…
Trump wins first three swing states
North Carolina, Georgiaand Pennsylvania – three of seven critical battleground states – have been called in favour of Donald Trump by Sky News’ US partner network NBC News.
North Carolina was the first battleground win of the election, giving Mr Trump the state’s 16 Electoral College votes, which he also narrowly won in 2020 with 49.9% of the vote, while Joe Biden garnered 48.6%.
It may not be a massive surprise, as North Carolina hasn’t swung to a Democrat for president since 2008, but it is still a significant blow for Ms Harris, who had been eyeing the state as a place to expand her path to 270.
Republican running mate JD Vance admitted before the vote it would be “very hard” for Mr Trump to win if their campaign did not hold North Carolina.
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Both candidates have made frequent trips to the battleground in the final weeks of the race.
But perhaps an even bigger loss for Team Harris was Georgia, which Mr Trump was projected to win at about 5.30am UK time.
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2:25
Trump projected to win Georgia
Numbers had shown Mr Trump was well ahead earlier this morning, but Democrats were holding out hope because he had been 200,000 votes ahead at the same stage of the 2020 election and still lost.
In 2020 it had proved a false lead because votes in the state’s four largest counties – Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb and DeKalb – which normally lean Democrat – had not been counted.
Once they were, Joe Biden came from behind to win the state.
Those same counties took the longest to count this time too, but Ms Harris couldn’t make up the ground in them.
Then at around 7am NBC News projected that Mr Trump would win Pennsylvania.
The state is seen as the key to victory in the election as it holds a crucial 19 electoral college votes.
Pennsylvania has been a heavy focus of the Republican and Democrat campaigns, with both camps spending huge amounts of money and time vying to win the state.
Trump’s victory there means he only needs to win the states he’s widely expected to win – he doesn’t need any more battleground states.
Florida goes to Trump
Sky News’ US partner NBC News projected Donald Trump as the winner in Florida at 1am UK time.
The Republican-leaning state has a massive 30 electoral votes, the third largest number behind California (54) and Texas (40).
Florida, which is Mr Trump’s home state, was once considered a swing state but has been reliably Republican for over a decade.
The last time Floridians went for a Democratic presidential candidate was when Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney by less than a percentage point in 2012.
Image: Trump supporters celebrate in Florida, where the Republican nominee is projected to win. Pic: AP
New York Times needle is back
There was talk that the popular New York Times ‘needle’ may not have been available on election night due to strike action that nearly ran into polling day.
The Tech Guild, which represents the Times’s software developers and data analysts, went on strike on Sunday over contracts, pay and in-office working policies.
But the needle was up and running on election night, predicting a comfortable win for Donald Trump.
The needle is part of the New York Times’s election coverage brought to readers by 100 journalists, engineers, statisticians, data experts and researchers.
It “estimates the final outcome based on partial election results, helping readers understand what to make of the vote that has been counted so far”, the New York Times says.
You can read exactly how the needle works, and see it for yourself, on the New York Times’ website.
Image: Pic: NYT
Republicans projected to win the Senate
NBC News projects the Republicans will take over control of the Senate from the Democrats.
It is forecast the party will win 51 seats to the Democrats’ 40.
The House, currently held by the Republicans, is still up in the air.
If Donald Trump were to win, having control of the Senate and the House would enable him to govern more freely than if these legislatures were split.
Crowds leave Harris event
Crowds were leaving Kamala Harris’s watch party in Washington DC at around midnight local time as news of Mr Trump’s projected swing state victories came in.
Supporters had hoped she would be delivering a historic victory speech there, but she didn’t show up at all in the end.
One of the supporters who attended, Anna Aurilio, told Sky News: “I’m heading home for a stiff drink but I’m a sport fan so I know it’s not over until it’s over.”
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Crowd leaves Harris event
Another, Ellycia Smalley, said: “I’m a little down, obviously, but I’m not giving up hope, there are still big cities in swing states to be counted.
“It’s not over until the fat lady sings.”
That was before Pennsylvania was projected to go Mr Trump’s way.
One of her campaign chairs said she will be there tomorrow to “address the nation”.
Trump declares victory with 266 electoral college votes
Donald Trump took to the stage in West Palm Beach, Florida, with a huge entourage.
“I want to thank you all very much,” he said, praising the “incredible” MAGA movement.
“Frankly I believe this was the greatest political movement of all time,” he says, adding it’s now going to go to another level.
“We have a country that needs help very badly,” he adds, promising to “fix everything”.
“It’s clear that… this is a political victory,” he adds.
“I want to thank the American people for the extraordinary honour of being elected your 47th president and your 45th president,” he says, effectively claiming victory.
“This is a magnificent victory for the American people that will allow us to make America great again.”
Multiple people have died after a helicopter crash in New York’s Hudson River, officials have told Sky’s US partner NBC News.
It’s believed the aircraft was a tourist helicopter on a flight around Manhattan.
New Jersey State Police have said there were two adults, two children and a pilot onboard. It is not known how many people have died.
The New York Fire Department said it received a report of a helicopter in the water at 3.17pm local time (8.17pm UK time). It has units on the scene performing rescue operations, it added.
Image: A New York Fire Department boat at the scene. Pic: AP
A man who saw the crash said “the chopper blade flew off”.
“I don’t know what happened to the tail, but it just straight up dropped,” Avi Rakesh told NBC News.
The crash took place in the river near the Holland tunnel, which links lower Manhattan’s Tribeca neighbourhood with Jersey City to its west.
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The crash site is also close to Pier 40, a multiuse facility with sports fields, tourist party boats and a large car park.
Image: First responders at long Pier 40, near the crash site. Pic: AP
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
The market rollercoaster of the past week – the tariffs, the jeopardy, the brinkmanship – has highlighted the remarkable nature of an interconnected world we take for granted.
There are many frontlines in this global trade war and the port of Duluth-Superior is one. It is a logistical and an engineering wonder.
In the northernmost part of the United States, near the border with Canada, there is no seaport anywhere in the world as far inland as this.
The sea is more than 2,000 miles away, to the east, along the Great Lakes-St Lawrence Seaway System, a binational waterway with a shared border between the US and Canada.
On the portside, vast ocean-going vessels are loaded and unloaded with products which make up the lifeblood of the global economy – iron ore for Canada, cement from Turkey, grain for Algeria and shipping containers packed with “Made in China” products for the American market.
Image: Jayson Hron from the Duluth Seaway Port Authority
My guide is Jayson Hron from the Duluth Seaway Port Authority.
“A vessel that is sailing through the seaway to Duluth crosses the international boundary nearly 30 times on that journey,” he tells me.
Duluth-Superior generates $1.6bn (£1.2bn) a year, supports more than 7,000 jobs, and these are nervous times.
“It’s certainly a season of more unpredictability than we’ve seen in the last few years. Unpredictability is bad for ports and bad for supply chains,” Mr Hron says.
Tariffs mean friction and friction is bad for everyone. Approximately 30 million metric tons of waterborne cargo moves through the port each season, placing it among the nation’s top 20 ports in terms of cargo flow.
“Iron ore is the port’s king cargo by tonnage,” Mr Hron says. “It makes up about half of our waterborne tonnage total each year. It is mined 65 miles/104km from the port, on Minnesota’s Iron Range.”
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But not all of the iron ore sails to domestic mills. Almost a third sailed to Canada in 2024, now subject to the trade war levies between the two nations.
“A fifth of our port’s overall waterborne tonnage was Canadian trade in 2024, with the vast majority of it export tonnage from the US to Canada,” Mr Hron says.
Geography combined with American and Canadian engineering over many decades has made this port a logistical wonder. From the high seas, cargo can be imported and exported to and from the heart of the North American continent.
Image: The Federal Yoshino will carry American grain destined for Algeria
On the dockside, the Federal Yoshino is being prepared for her cargo. She will leave here soon with American grain destined for Algeria.
The port straddles two states. The John A Blatnik interstate bridge links Duluth with Superior and Minnesota with Wisconsin.
A network of roads and rails links the port with the country beyond, and an hour to the southeast are the fields of gold in Wisconsin.
Trump suggests farmers can sell more products at home
Last year, soybeans were the biggest export from the US to China, totalling nearly $12.8bn (£10bn) in trade.
Donald Trump has suggested American farmers can make up the difference by selling more of their products at home.
In March, he posted on social media: “To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States. Tariffs will go on external product on April 2nd. Have fun!”
But there is no solid domestic market for soybeans – America’s second largest crop. Two-fifths of the exports go to China. No other export market comes close – 11% to Mexico and 9% to the EU – also now facing potential tariff barriers too.
Image: Local farmer Tanner Johnson
‘These fields are rows of gold’
Tanner Johnson is a local farmer and soybean industry representative. He talks regularly to politicians in Washington DC.
“They don’t look like much in your hand. But these fields are rows of gold,” he says.
Farmers across this country voted overwhelmingly for Mr Trump. Is there anxiety? Absolutely.
“I don’t want to put an exact timeline on when doors around here will close. But in the short term I think most farmers can handle it. Long-term – a year, year plus – things are going to look a lot more bleak around here,” Mr Johnson tells me.
Here, they mostly seem to hold on to a trust in Mr Trump. There remains a belief that his wild negotiating with their livelihoods will pay off. But it’s high stakes and with an uncertainty that no one needs.
This is the term used periodically to describe investors who push back against what are perceived to be irresponsible fiscal or monetary policies by selling government bonds, in the process pushing up yields, or implied borrowing costs.
Most of the focus on markets in the wake of Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on the rest of the world has, in the last week, been about the calamitous stock market reaction.
This was previously something that was assumed to have been taken seriously by Mr Trump.
During his first term in the White House, the president took the strength of US equities – in particular the S&P 500 – as being a barometer of the success, or otherwise, of his administration.
Image: Donald Trump in the Oval Office today. Pic: Reuters
He had, over the last week, brushed off the sour equity market reaction to his tariffs as being akin to “medicine” that had to be taken to rectify what he perceived as harmful trade imbalances around the world.
But, as ever, it is the bond markets that have forced Mr Trump to blink – and, make no mistake, blink is what he has done.
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To begin with, following the imposition of his tariffs – which were justified by some cockamamie mathematics and a spurious equation complete with Greek characters – bond prices rose as equities sold off.
That was not unusual: big sell-offs in equities, such as those seen in 1987 and in 2008, tend to be accompanied by rallies in bonds.
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What it’s like on the New York stock exchange floor
However, this week has seen something altogether different, with equities continuing to crater and US government bonds following suit.
At the beginning of the week yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds, traditionally seen as the safest of safe haven investments, were at 4.00%.
By early yesterday, they had risen to 4.51%, a huge jump by the standards of most investors. This is important.
The 10-year yield helps determine the interest rate on a whole clutch of financial products important to ordinary Americans, including mortgages, car loans and credit card borrowing.
By pushing up the yield on such a security, the bond investors were doing their stuff. It is not over-egging things to say that this was something akin to what Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng experienced when the latter unveiled his mini-budget in October 2022.
And, as with the aftermath to that event, the violent reaction in bonds was caused by forced selling.
Now part of the selling appears to have been down to investors concluding, probably rightly, that Mr Trump’s tariffs would inject a big dose of inflation into the US economy – and inflation is the enemy of all bond investors.
Part of it appears to be due to the fact the US Treasury had on Tuesday suffered the weakest demand in nearly 18 months for $58bn worth of three-year bonds that it was trying to sell.
But in this particular case, the selling appears to have been primarily due to investors, chiefly hedge funds, unwinding what are known as ‘basis trades’ – in simple terms a strategy used to profit from the difference between a bond priced at, say, $100 and a futures contract for that same bond priced at, say, $105.
In ordinary circumstances, a hedge fund might buy the bond at $100 and sell the futures contract at $105 and make a profit when the two prices converge, in what is normally a relatively risk-free trade.
So risk-free, in fact, that hedge funds will ‘leverage’ – or borrow heavily – themselves to maximise potential returns.
The sudden and violent fall in US Treasuries this week reflected the fact that hedge funds were having to close those trades by selling Treasuries.
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1:20
Trump freezes tariffs at 10% – except China
Confronted by a potential hike in borrowing costs for millions of American homeowners, consumers and businesses, the White House has decided to rein back its tariffs, rightly so.
It was immediately rewarded by a spectacular rally in equity markets – the Nasdaq enjoyed its second-best-ever day, and its best since 2001, while the S&P 500 enjoyed its third-best session since World War Two – and by a rally in US Treasuries.
The influential Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs immediately trimmed its forecast of the probability of a US recession this year from 65% to 45%.
Of course, Mr Trump will not admit he has blinked, claiming last night some investors had got “a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid”.
And it is perfectly possible that markets face more volatile days ahead: the spectre of Mr Trump’s tariffs being reinstated 90 days from now still looms and a full-blown trade war between the US and China is now raging.
But Mr Trump has blinked. The bond vigilantes have brought him to heel. This president, who by his aggressive use of emergency executive powers had appeared to be more powerful than any of his predecessors, will never seem quite so powerful again.