US election: Who’s winning so far – and when will we know for sure?

Published

1 year ago

November 6, 2024

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Donald Trump is projected to have won the first two of the seven swing states to be declared – narrowing Kamala Harris’s routes to the White House.

Trump and Harris both need to hit the magic 270 Electoral College votes to become the next US president.

Trump wins are projected in they key battlegrounds of North Carolina and Georgia.

Losing there could indicate that any route for Kamala Harris has to go through the “blue wall” states – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – which are all tight battlegrounds.

Votes are still being counted, and counting is generally more complicated in the US than in the UK, largely due to the country’s sheer size; the varying time differences alone make for a longer process.

Polls began closing at 11pm UK time and the last of them closed at 4am UK time.

In many past elections, it’s at around this time that a winner has been declared.

Election latest: Live updates as results come in

But US election results can take days – or even weeks.

Even with Donald Trump ahead in early battleground voting, factors like high turnout and voting by post can mean leads later change hands in crucial states.

Before we get into those factors in detail, you need to know how a winner is declared.

How calling the election works

When a winner is declared, whether it’s hours or days from now, it will initially be a “projected” winner.

It’s projected because the official results are typically only confirmed by state officials after 7-30 days, depending on the state.

Sky News has access to the most comprehensive exit poll and vote-counting results from every state, county and demographic across America through its US-partner network NBC.

Big voter turnout

There are some 240 million people eligible to vote in the US.

And if voter turnout is particularly high, it means vote counting will take longer than usual.

This was the case in 2020, when a record 158.5 million people voted – the highest turnout since 1900.

It isn’t yet known how many voters have visited the polls on election day, but more than 77 million Americans had already cast their votes by Monday, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab – 42,195,018 returned in person and 35,173,674 by mail.

In the 2020 presidential election, it took four days for Mr Biden to be called the winner, but that wasn’t just put down to the turnout.

Many also said it was because more people – around 100 million – voted by post than usual due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and those votes took longer to count.

Election officials have been optimistic that the 2024 vote count will be smoother without the many challenges the pandemic posed to officials in 2020, according to NBC News.

Tight race will lead to a longer wait

For months, polls have suggested this will be an incredibly tight election – particularly in a few battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

It’s been so tight that most experts have refused to predict the outcome – and exit polls have done little to separate the candidates.

But you’ll have seen overnight that Ms Harris and Mr Trump were projected winners in certain states early on after polls closed.

These are states where votes are so clearly leaning in one direction as they get counted that there is too much ground for the trailing candidate to make up.

In those swing states, however, voting is going to be far closer, and a winner will not be projected until the NBC News decision desk is certain of an outcome.

That could mean waiting until practically all the votes in some of the states are in to project a winner – which could take days.

Key terms to listen out for as the count progresses

There are a number of key stages between now and reaching a projected winner, NBC News says. Listen out for these calls:

Too early to call: This can mean two things: there might be a significant margin for one of the candidates, not enough to meet NBC’s statistical standards to project the race; or there is not enough data to determine the margin with certainty.
Too close to call: This means the final margin between the candidates will be less than five percentage points. NBC News’ decision desk will not use this characterisation until it has statistical confidence that the race will be this close.
Leaning: This status is introduced when the decision desk is confident that the candidate who is ahead is going to win, but the statistical threshold for calling the race has not yet been met.
Projected winner: NBC News has made a projection that a candidate will win.

How long has it taken in the past?

It’s common in the US for it to take a couple of days to know who the next president will be.

The 2020 election’s four day wait was an anomaly, but it paled in comparison to the 2000 election, when it took weeks.

Florida and its 25 Electoral College votes (it now has 30) were set to decide the contest between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W Bush, whose brother was Florida governor.

On election night on 7 November, TV networks called the state for Gore before polls had closed everywhere in the state. Later that evening, they reversed their stance and said it was too close to call, then called it for Bush and then returned to “too close to call”.

A preliminary vote tally the day after the election had Bush ahead by around 1,700 votes in Florida – so close that state laws triggered an automatic machine recount. The first recount winnowed Bush’s lead down to just 317 votes.

The issue was around Florida’s punch-hole ballots and hanging chads – punched holes that might still have a corner intact – and how these were counted.

A legal battle ensued that went right up to the US Supreme Court, which in a 5-4 decision along ideological lines ruled that any solution to the recount issue could not be put in place by the deadline, thus handing the state to Bush.

What happens after a winner is declared?

Whether a winner is declared on the night or in the following days, they aren’t officially elected until the electoral votes are formally cast and counted.

Electors cast them on 17 December, they are counted and certified by Congress on 6 January and then the new president will take office after being inaugurated on 20 January.

Unlike the general election in the UK, there is a transition period between the election result and the new president taking over.

During the gap, Mr Biden will continue as president, with the election winner known as the president-elect until the transfer of power in January.

US

US has seized oil tanker off coast of Venezuela, Donald Trump says

Published

12 hours ago

December 11, 2025

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US has seized oil tanker off coast of Venezuela, Donald Trump says

The US has intercepted and seized a sanctioned oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, Donald Trump has said.

President Trump confirmed the operation at a meeting with business leaders at the White House on Wednesday.

“We’ve just seized a tanker on the coast of Venezuela, a large tanker, very large, largest one ever seized, actually,” he said at the start of the meeting.

It marks the latest escalation from the Trump administration, which has in recent months ramped up pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

The US accuses Mr Maduro of presiding over a narcotrafficking operation in Venezuela, which he denies

Tanker ‘used to transport sanctioned’ oil, US claims

Later, Attorney General Pam Bondi shared a video of the operation, confirming that the FBI, Homeland Security, US Coast Guard, and Department of Defence were involved.

She said on X that the US forces “executed a seizure warrant for a crude oil tanker used to transport sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran”.

“For multiple years, the oil tanker has been sanctioned by the United States due to its involvement in an illicit oil shipping network supporting foreign terrorist organisations,” she added.

“This seizure, completed off the coast of Venezuela, was conducted safely and securely-and our investigation alongside the Department of Homeland Security to prevent the transport of sanctioned oil continues.”

She did not name the vessel, what flag the vessel sailed under, or exactly where the incident took place.

UK maritime risk management group Vanguard said that the tanker Skipper – which the US sanctioned for alleged involvement in Iranian oil trading under the name Adisa – was believed to have been seized.

US interception of oil tanker raises more questions about international law

The seizing of an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela is a significant escalation in US tactics.

By targeting an oil shipment, rather than a suspected drug boat, Washington has signalled its willingness to disrupt exports.

President Trump seems determined to shut down one of the last major sources of funding for Nicholas Maduro’s embattled government.

Nine months ago, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all goods imported into the US from any country buying oil or gas from Venezuela.

This is even more aggressive and will be viewed in Caracas as a direct threat to the country’s economy and sovereignty.

The interception of the tanker raises more questions about international maritime law and the reach of US enforcement powers.

In the space of four months, the US has bombed 23 boats, killing 87 people, accusing the occupants of being “narco-terrorists”.

It will also fuel speculation that airstrikes are imminent, President Trump having posted two weeks ago that he had closed the airspace.

Trump on seized oil: ‘We keep it’

Without giving additional information on the operation, Mr Trump added during the White House meeting with business leaders that “other things are happening”.

Later, Mr Trump said that the tanker was “seized for a very good reason,” and when asked what will happen to the oil on board the vessel, he added: “Well, we keep it, I suppose”.

He also suggested that Colombian President Gustavo Petro, who angered the Trump administration by speaking at a pro-Palestinian demonstration outside the UN in September, could “be next” if his country doesn’t “wise up” on alleged drug trafficking.

The US has escalated military deployments against the Latin American country over the last few months, with Mr Trump suggesting that American forces could launch a land attack on Venezuela.

On 2 September, the White House posted on X that it had conducted a strike against so-called “narcoterrorists” shipping fentanyl to the US, without providing direct evidence of the alleged crime.

Sky’s Data & Forensics unit has verified that in the past four months since strikes began, 23 boats have been targeted in 22 strikes, killing 87 people.

Geoffrey Corn, director of the Centre for Military Law at Texas Tech University, told Sky News’s Mark Austin on The World that Mr Trump’s remarks on land strikes “ostensibly” refer to drug cartel members.

Formerly a senior adviser to the US army on warfare law, Mr Corn added: “That could very easily provide the pretext for some confrontation between Venezuelan armed forces and US armed forces.

“And then that would open the door to a broader campaign to basically negate the power of the Venezuelan military.”

Venezuela ‘prepared to break the teeth’ of US

Speaking to Politico on Tuesday, Mr Trump declined to comment on whether US troops would enter Venezuela, but said that Mr Maduro’s “days are numbered”.

According to Bloomberg, the Maduro government describes US actions as a grab for Venezuela’s oil reserves – among the biggest in the world.

Meanwhile, at a rally before a ruling-party-organised demonstration in Caracas, Mr Maduro did not address the seizure, but told supporters that Venezuela is “prepared to break the teeth of the North American empire if necessary”.

Flanked by senior officials, he said that only the ruling party can “guarantee peace, stability, and the harmonious development of Venezuela, South America and the Caribbean”.

US

US plans to start checking all tourists’ social media

Published

18 hours ago

December 10, 2025

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US plans to start checking all tourists' social media

All tourists – including those from Britain – will have to undergo a social media screening before being allowed entry into the US under new plans being considered by the country’s border force.

At the moment, Britons are among those who can visit for up to 90 days without a visa. They just have to obtain an electronic travel authorisation, known as an ESTA, for $40 (£30).

The potential social media mandate being proposed by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) would apply to anyone visiting, whether they require a visa or not.

According to a notice published in America’s federal register on Tuesday, foreign tourists would need to provide their social media from the last five years.

It will be “mandatory” to hand over the information, and other details – including email addresses and telephone numbers used in the last five years, as well as the names, addresses, numbers, and birthdays of family members – will also be required.

Currently, as part of the ESTA application process, a tourist from Britain would have to provide an email address, home address, phone number, and emergency contact details. If approved, the ESTA lasts for two years.

CBP is proposing that moving forward, ESTA applications would require a selfie.

It further wants to collect biometrics – face, fingerprints DNA and iris – as part of the ESTA application. It currently only records face and fingerprints upon arrival at the US border.

The proposed changes are open for public consultation for 60 days.

So much for free speech?

There have been several reports of travellers already having been denied entry into the US over social media posts and messages found on their personal devices after President Donald Trump took office in January.

This includes a French scientist who was turned away at the US border in March after messages “that reflect hatred toward Trump and can be described as terrorism” were found on his phone.

Despite Mr Trump vowing to “restore freedom of speech” on online platforms and end “federal censorship” when he took office, he has found himself at the centre of various free speech rows since.

In September, talk show host Jimmy Kimmel was taken off-air by Disney-owned ABC over comments he made about the assassination of the right-wing influencer Charlie Kirk.

Mr Kimmel accused the Trump administration and its allies of “working very hard to capitalise on the murder of Charlie Kirk”, with the president among those to pin it on left-wing extremism.

At the time, Mr Trump suggested certain networks should have their licenses revoked over a lack of support for him.

Mr Kimmel’s show was reinstated less than a week after his suspension following widespread backlash from celebrities and viewers.

And in April, Harvard University sued the Trump administration for seeking “unprecedented and improper” control of the school, after it froze $2.6bn (£1.9bn) of its federal funding.

Harvard’s lawsuit accused the government of waging a retaliation campaign against the university after it rejected a list of 10 demands from a federal antisemitism task force, which included sweeping changes related to campus protests, academics and admissions.

A judge ruled in September that the Trump administration’s freeze of billions in research funding to Harvard was unconstitutional and retaliatory, a decision the US government vowed to appeal.

An agreement has not yet been reached, so the fight between the Ivy League university and Mr Trump rages on.

US

Egypt and Iran complain to FIFA after World Cup match scheduled to coincide with Seattle Pride event

Published

18 hours ago

December 10, 2025

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Egypt and Iran complain to FIFA after World Cup match scheduled to coincide with Seattle Pride event

Iran and Egypt have complained after FIFA scheduled a World Cup match between the two nations in Seattle to coincide with the city’s LGBTQ+ Pride festival.

Seattle’s PrideFest 2026, which organisers say regularly sees more than 200,000 participants, takes place on 27 and 28 June – immediately following the match.

Local organisers have said the 26 June game at the Seattle Stadium will include a “once-in-a-lifetime moment to showcase and celebrate LGBTQIA+ communities in Washington”.

In Iran, where gay couples can face the death penalty, the president of Iran’s Football Federation, Mehdi Taj, condemned the decision to use Seattle as a venue and the timing of the match.

Mr Taj told Iranian state TV: “Both Egypt and we have objected, because this is an unreasonable and illogical move that essentially signals support for a particular group, and we must definitely address this point.”

He said Iran would bring up the issue at a FIFA Council meeting in Qatar next week.

The football federation in Egypt, where Human Rights Watch says people from LGBTQ+ communities face persecution, said in a statement that it had written to FIFA “categorically rejecting any activities related to supporting homosexuality during the match between the Egyptian national team and Iran.”

The letter also stated: “Information had circulated indicating the local organising committee’s decision and plans to hold some activities related to supporting homosexuality during that match” and the federation “completely rejects such activities, which directly contradict the cultural, religious and social values in the region, especially in Arab and Islamic societies”.

In Seattle, the local organising committee said it was “moving forward as planned with our community programming outside the stadium during Pride weekend and throughout the tournament,” having already promoted an art contest ahead of the match.

It added: “We get to show the world that in Seattle, everyone is welcome.”

Seattle PrideFest has been organised in the city since 2007 by a nonprofit group which designated the 26 June match for celebration before FIFA carried out the World Cup draw on Friday.

On Saturday, FIFA announced the Egypt-Iran game had been allocated to Seattle instead of Vancouver, where the teams’ group rivals Belgium and New Zealand will play at the same time.

FIFA has been asked for a comment.