US election: Who’s winning so far – and when will we know for sure?

Published

8 hours ago

November 6, 2024

admin

Donald Trump is projected to have won the first two of the seven swing states to be declared – narrowing Kamala Harris’s routes to the White House.

Trump and Harris both need to hit the magic 270 Electoral College votes to become the next US president.

Trump wins are projected in they key battlegrounds of North Carolina and Georgia.

Losing there could indicate that any route for Kamala Harris has to go through the “blue wall” states – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – which are all tight battlegrounds.

Votes are still being counted, and counting is generally more complicated in the US than in the UK, largely due to the country’s sheer size; the varying time differences alone make for a longer process.

Polls began closing at 11pm UK time and the last of them closed at 4am UK time.

In many past elections, it’s at around this time that a winner has been declared.

Election latest: Live updates as results come in

But US election results can take days – or even weeks.

Even with Donald Trump ahead in early battleground voting, factors like high turnout and voting by post can mean leads later change hands in crucial states.

Before we get into those factors in detail, you need to know how a winner is declared.

How calling the election works

When a winner is declared, whether it’s hours or days from now, it will initially be a “projected” winner.

It’s projected because the official results are typically only confirmed by state officials after 7-30 days, depending on the state.

Sky News has access to the most comprehensive exit poll and vote-counting results from every state, county and demographic across America through its US-partner network NBC.

Big voter turnout

There are some 240 million people eligible to vote in the US.

And if voter turnout is particularly high, it means vote counting will take longer than usual.

This was the case in 2020, when a record 158.5 million people voted – the highest turnout since 1900.

It isn’t yet known how many voters have visited the polls on election day, but more than 77 million Americans had already cast their votes by Monday, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab – 42,195,018 returned in person and 35,173,674 by mail.

In the 2020 presidential election, it took four days for Mr Biden to be called the winner, but that wasn’t just put down to the turnout.

Many also said it was because more people – around 100 million – voted by post than usual due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and those votes took longer to count.

Election officials have been optimistic that the 2024 vote count will be smoother without the many challenges the pandemic posed to officials in 2020, according to NBC News.

Tight race will lead to a longer wait

For months, polls have suggested this will be an incredibly tight election – particularly in a few battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

It’s been so tight that most experts have refused to predict the outcome – and exit polls have done little to separate the candidates.

But you’ll have seen overnight that Ms Harris and Mr Trump were projected winners in certain states early on after polls closed.

These are states where votes are so clearly leaning in one direction as they get counted that there is too much ground for the trailing candidate to make up.

In those swing states, however, voting is going to be far closer, and a winner will not be projected until the NBC News decision desk is certain of an outcome.

That could mean waiting until practically all the votes in some of the states are in to project a winner – which could take days.

Key terms to listen out for as the count progresses

There are a number of key stages between now and reaching a projected winner, NBC News says. Listen out for these calls:

Too early to call: This can mean two things: there might be a significant margin for one of the candidates, not enough to meet NBC’s statistical standards to project the race; or there is not enough data to determine the margin with certainty.
Too close to call: This means the final margin between the candidates will be less than five percentage points. NBC News’ decision desk will not use this characterisation until it has statistical confidence that the race will be this close.
Leaning: This status is introduced when the decision desk is confident that the candidate who is ahead is going to win, but the statistical threshold for calling the race has not yet been met.
Projected winner: NBC News has made a projection that a candidate will win.

How long has it taken in the past?

It’s common in the US for it to take a couple of days to know who the next president will be.

The 2020 election’s four day wait was an anomaly, but it paled in comparison to the 2000 election, when it took weeks.

Florida and its 25 Electoral College votes (it now has 30) were set to decide the contest between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W Bush, whose brother was Florida governor.

On election night on 7 November, TV networks called the state for Gore before polls had closed everywhere in the state. Later that evening, they reversed their stance and said it was too close to call, then called it for Bush and then returned to “too close to call”.

A preliminary vote tally the day after the election had Bush ahead by around 1,700 votes in Florida – so close that state laws triggered an automatic machine recount. The first recount winnowed Bush’s lead down to just 317 votes.

The issue was around Florida’s punch-hole ballots and hanging chads – punched holes that might still have a corner intact – and how these were counted.

A legal battle ensued that went right up to the US Supreme Court, which in a 5-4 decision along ideological lines ruled that any solution to the recount issue could not be put in place by the deadline, thus handing the state to Bush.

What happens after a winner is declared?

Whether a winner is declared on the night or in the following days, they aren’t officially elected until the electoral votes are formally cast and counted.

Electors cast them on 17 December, they are counted and certified by Congress on 6 January and then the new president will take office after being inaugurated on 20 January.

Unlike the general election in the UK, there is a transition period between the election result and the new president taking over.

During the gap, Mr Biden will continue as president, with the election winner known as the president-elect until the transfer of power in January.

US

Donald Trump declares victory in presidential election as he addresses supporters

Published

2 hours ago

November 6, 2024

admin

Donald Trump declares victory in presidential election as he addresses supporters

Donald Trump has declared victory in the US election as he addressed jubilant supporters in Florida – but votes in key states are still being counted.

Speaking at West Palm Beach, he told crowds: “Look what happened – is this crazy?” – adding: “I want to thank the American people for the extraordinary honour of being elected your 47th president.

“I will fight for you and your family and your future, every single day I will be fighting for you with every breath in my body.”

He told the crowd it was a “magnificent victory for the American people” while claiming he had also won the popular vote, something he failed to secure during his 2016 and 2020 presidential bids.

“Winning the popular vote was very nice, it’s a great feeling of love,” he said.

The 78-year-old also told his supporters that “this will truly be the golden age of America”.

Mr Trump has won in the key battleground states of Georgia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina – and is leading in several others – narrowing Kamala Harris’s path to victory significantly.

According to Sky News’s US partner network NBC, Mr Trump, who has been bidding for a second term in the White House following his win in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, is now just four electoral votes away from a projected win.

While the Republican Party’s win of the Senate has been confirmed, the House is still up for grabs.

“We overcame obstacles that no one thought possible,” Mr Trump said as family, including “my beautiful wife Melania” and his “amazing” children, stood next to him.

“We’re going to help our country heal, we have a country that needs help and it needs help very badly,” he said while doubling down on his promise to crack down on illegal immigration.

Mr Trump then seemed to refer to an attempted assassination on him at a rally in Pennsylvania back in July as he said: “Many people have told me that god has spared my life for a reason and that reason was to save our country and to restore America to greatness and now we are going to fulfill that mission together.”

US election latest: Trump projected key wins

Ms Harris will now not address her supporters until later on Wednesday, her campaign chair has said.

The vice president had been scheduled to make a speech at her alma mater, Howard University, after the polls closed, but the mood grew sombre as results began to trickle in.

Cedric Richmond, co-chair of the Harris campaign, told the crowds at the university: “We will continue overnight to fight to make sure, every vote is counted, that every voice has spoken.

“So you won’t hear from the vice president tonight but you will hear from her tomorrow. She will be back here tomorrow.”

The Howard community had been preparing for a historic night – Ms Harris would become the first woman, black woman and South Asian American to assume the presidency, if elected.

But in the 21 remaining states where more than 80% of the vote has been counted, there has been a swing towards Mr Trump, NBC News reports.

In seven of them, the swing is less than one point.

The largest swings – of more than five points – are in New Jersey and Florida.

No other state has a swing higher than three points.

World reacts to looming Trump victory

World leaders have started reacting to Mr Trump’s speech, with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer tweeting: “Congratulations president-elect Trump on your historic election victory.

“I look forward to working with you in the years ahead,” he said.

“As the closest of allies, we stand shoulder-to-shoulder in defence of our shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise.

“From growth and security to innovation and tech, I know that the UK-US special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come.”

Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK and a longtime supporter of Mr Trump, tweeted: “He’s done it again. The most incredible political comeback of our lifetime.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who will have been closely watching the election as he seeks continued support from the US over his war against the Hamas militant group in Gaza, said on X: “Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback!”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, another leader who has been counting on renewed US support as he seeks to fend of Russia’s full-scale invasion of his country, also congratulated Mr Trump over his looming victory, which he described as “impressive”.

Mr Zelenskyy said on X he appreciated Mr Trump’s “commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach” to global affairs and the principle could “bring just peace in Ukraine closer”.

US

US election results: How the night unfolded in key moments

Published

2 hours ago

November 6, 2024

admin

US election results: How the night unfolded in key moments

Votes are still being counted in the US election, meaning the race is not yet won – but Donald Trump is just a handful of electoral votes from victory.

Overnight developments have thrilled Republicans, with Mr Trump going well ahead in the race for the magic number of 270 electoral college votes to win.

While the fight isn’t officially over yet for Kamala Harris – her opponent no longer needs the four remaining key battleground states to win, and he’s already claimed victory.

Here’s the story of the night…

Trump wins first three swing states

North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania – three of seven critical battleground states – have been called in favour of Donald Trump by Sky News’ US partner network NBC News.

North Carolina was the first battleground win of the election, giving Mr Trump the state’s 16 Electoral College votes, which he also narrowly won in 2020 with 49.9% of the vote, while Joe Biden garnered 48.6%.

It may not be a massive surprise, as North Carolina hasn’t swung to a Democrat for president since 2008, but it is still a significant blow for Ms Harris, who had been eyeing the state as a place to expand her path to 270.

Republican running mate JD Vance admitted before the vote it would be “very hard” for Mr Trump to win if their campaign did not hold North Carolina.

Both candidates have made frequent trips to the battleground in the final weeks of the race.

But perhaps an even bigger loss for Team Harris was Georgia, which Mr Trump was projected to win at about 5.30am UK time.

Numbers had shown Mr Trump was well ahead earlier this morning, but Democrats were holding out hope because he had been 200,000 votes ahead at the same stage of the 2020 election and still lost.

In 2020 it had proved a false lead because votes in the state’s four largest counties – Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb and DeKalb – which normally lean Democrat – had not been counted.

Once they were, Joe Biden came from behind to win the state.

Those same counties took the longest to count this time too, but Ms Harris couldn’t make up the ground in them.

Then at around 7am NBC News projected that Mr Trump would win Pennsylvania.

The state is seen as the key to victory in the election as it holds a crucial 19 electoral college votes.

Pennsylvania has been a heavy focus of the Republican and Democrat campaigns, with both camps spending huge amounts of money and time vying to win the state.

Trump’s victory there means he only needs to win the states he’s widely expected to win – he doesn’t need any more battleground states.

Florida goes to Trump

Sky News’ US partner NBC News projected Donald Trump as the winner in Florida at 1am UK time.

The Republican-leaning state has a massive 30 electoral votes, the third largest number behind California (54) and Texas (40).

Florida, which is Mr Trump’s home state, was once considered a swing state but has been reliably Republican for over a decade.

The last time Floridians went for a Democratic presidential candidate was when Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney by less than a percentage point in 2012.

New York Times needle is back

There was talk that the popular New York Times ‘needle’ may not have been available on election night due to strike action that nearly ran into polling day.

The Tech Guild, which represents the Times’s software developers and data analysts, went on strike on Sunday over contracts, pay and in-office working policies.

But the needle was up and running on election night, predicting a comfortable win for Donald Trump.

The needle is part of the New York Times’s election coverage brought to readers by 100 journalists, engineers, statisticians, data experts and researchers.

It “estimates the final outcome based on partial election results, helping readers understand what to make of the vote that has been counted so far”, the New York Times says.

You can read exactly how the needle works, and see it for yourself, on the New York Times’ website.

Republicans projected to win the Senate

NBC News projects the Republicans will take over control of the Senate from the Democrats.

It is forecast the party will win 51 seats to the Democrats’ 40.

The House, currently held by the Republicans, is still up in the air.

If Donald Trump were to win, having control of the Senate and the House would enable him to govern more freely than if these legislatures were split.

Crowds leave Harris event

Crowds were leaving Kamala Harris’s watch party in Washington DC at around midnight local time as news of Mr Trump’s projected swing state victories came in.

Supporters had hoped she would be delivering a historic victory speech there, but she didn’t show up at all in the end.

One of the supporters who attended, Anna Aurilio, told Sky News: “I’m heading home for a stiff drink but I’m a sport fan so I know it’s not over until it’s over.”

Another, Ellycia Smalley, said: “I’m a little down, obviously, but I’m not giving up hope, there are still big cities in swing states to be counted.

“It’s not over until the fat lady sings.”

That was before Pennsylvania was projected to go Mr Trump’s way.

One of her campaign chairs said she will be there tomorrow to “address the nation”.

Trump declares victory with 266 electoral college votes

Donald Trump took to the stage in West Palm Beach, Florida, with a huge entourage.

“I want to thank you all very much,” he said, praising the “incredible” MAGA movement.

“Frankly I believe this was the greatest political movement of all time,” he says, adding it’s now going to go to another level.

“We have a country that needs help very badly,” he adds, promising to “fix everything”.

“It’s clear that… this is a political victory,” he adds.

“I want to thank the American people for the extraordinary honour of being elected your 47th president and your 45th president,” he says, effectively claiming victory.

“This is a magnificent victory for the American people that will allow us to make America great again.”

US

Republicans make gains as they take control of Senate for first time in four years

Published

2 hours ago

November 6, 2024

admin

Republicans make gains as they take control of Senate for first time in four years

The Republican Party has made gains in the Senate and secured a majority for the first time in four years.

A third of the Senate’s 100 seats were up for grabs at this year’s elections, with 51 required for a majority.

The Senate, similar to the House of Lords in the UK but is elected, is made up of two senators for each state.

The Democrats have been in control of the upper house of Congress for the last four years.

US election latest: Trump addressing ‘jubilant’ supporters

But the Republicans have wrestled control after making gains in elections overnight.

With eight seats yet to be declared, the Republicans have 51 seats in the Senate and the Democrats have 40.

Independent candidate Bernie Sanders, who sits with the Democratic caucus, has been projected to win a fourth term representing Vermont.

Among the Republicans’ gains were Trump-backed Bernie Moreno, who flipped a seat in Ohio which had been held by the Democrats since 2007.

Another gain was in West Virginia where Jim Justice won a seat that was left vacant after independent senator and former Democrat Joe Manchin’s retirement.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, the lower house, are also up for grabs.

The Republicans’ gains in the Senate come as Donald Trump has been projected to win several key battleground states in the race to the White House, closing in on a second presidential term.

He declared victory in a speech to supporters in Florida, while Kamala Harris will not speak until later on Wednesday.