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Donald Trump is projected to have won the first two of the seven swing states to be declared – narrowing Kamala Harris’s routes to the White House.

Trump and Harris both need to hit the magic 270 Electoral College votes to become the next US president.

Trump wins are projected in they key battlegrounds of North Carolina and Georgia.

Losing there could indicate that any route for Kamala Harris has to go through the “blue wall” states – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – which are all tight battlegrounds.

Votes are still being counted, and counting is generally more complicated in the US than in the UK, largely due to the country’s sheer size; the varying time differences alone make for a longer process.

Polls began closing at 11pm UK time and the last of them closed at 4am UK time.

In many past elections, it’s at around this time that a winner has been declared.

Election latest: Live updates as results come in

But US election results can take days – or even weeks.

Even with Donald Trump ahead in early battleground voting, factors like high turnout and voting by post can mean leads later change hands in crucial states.

Before we get into those factors in detail, you need to know how a winner is declared.

How calling the election works

When a winner is declared, whether it’s hours or days from now, it will initially be a “projected” winner.

It’s projected because the official results are typically only confirmed by state officials after 7-30 days, depending on the state.

Sky News has access to the most comprehensive exit poll and vote-counting results from every state, county and demographic across America through its US-partner network NBC.

Big voter turnout

There are some 240 million people eligible to vote in the US.

And if voter turnout is particularly high, it means vote counting will take longer than usual.

This was the case in 2020, when a record 158.5 million people voted – the highest turnout since 1900.

It isn’t yet known how many voters have visited the polls on election day, but more than 77 million Americans had already cast their votes by Monday, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab – 42,195,018 returned in person and 35,173,674 by mail.

In the 2020 presidential election, it took four days for Mr Biden to be called the winner, but that wasn’t just put down to the turnout.

Many also said it was because more people – around 100 million – voted by post than usual due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and those votes took longer to count.

Election officials have been optimistic that the 2024 vote count will be smoother without the many challenges the pandemic posed to officials in 2020, according to NBC News.

Tight race will lead to a longer wait

For months, polls have suggested this will be an incredibly tight election – particularly in a few battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

It’s been so tight that most experts have refused to predict the outcome – and exit polls have done little to separate the candidates.

But you’ll have seen overnight that Ms Harris and Mr Trump were projected winners in certain states early on after polls closed.

These are states where votes are so clearly leaning in one direction as they get counted that there is too much ground for the trailing candidate to make up.

In those swing states, however, voting is going to be far closer, and a winner will not be projected until the NBC News decision desk is certain of an outcome.

That could mean waiting until practically all the votes in some of the states are in to project a winner – which could take days.

An election worker processes mail-in ballots at the Philadelphia election.
Pic: AP
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An election worker processes mail-in ballots in Philadelphia. Pic: AP


Key terms to listen out for as the count progresses

There are a number of key stages between now and reaching a projected winner, NBC News says. Listen out for these calls:

  • Too early to call: This can mean two things: there might be a significant margin for one of the candidates, not enough to meet NBC’s statistical standards to project the race; or there is not enough data to determine the margin with certainty.
  • Too close to call: This means the final margin between the candidates will be less than five percentage points. NBC News’ decision desk will not use this characterisation until it has statistical confidence that the race will be this close.
  • Leaning: This status is introduced when the decision desk is confident that the candidate who is ahead is going to win, but the statistical threshold for calling the race has not yet been met.
  • Projected winner: NBC News has made a projection that a candidate will win.
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How long has it taken in the past?

It’s common in the US for it to take a couple of days to know who the next president will be.

The 2020 election’s four day wait was an anomaly, but it paled in comparison to the 2000 election, when it took weeks.

Florida and its 25 Electoral College votes (it now has 30) were set to decide the contest between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W Bush, whose brother was Florida governor.

On election night on 7 November, TV networks called the state for Gore before polls had closed everywhere in the state. Later that evening, they reversed their stance and said it was too close to call, then called it for Bush and then returned to “too close to call”.

A preliminary vote tally the day after the election had Bush ahead by around 1,700 votes in Florida – so close that state laws triggered an automatic machine recount. The first recount winnowed Bush’s lead down to just 317 votes.

The issue was around Florida’s punch-hole ballots and hanging chads – punched holes that might still have a corner intact – and how these were counted.

A legal battle ensued that went right up to the US Supreme Court, which in a 5-4 decision along ideological lines ruled that any solution to the recount issue could not be put in place by the deadline, thus handing the state to Bush.

FILE - In this Nov. 24, 2000 file photo, Broward County, Fla. canvassing board member Judge Robert Rosenberg uses a magnifying glass to examine a disputed ballot at the Broward County Courthouse in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. What happens if America wakes up on Nov. 9 to a disputed presidential election in which the outcome turns on the results of a razor-thin margin in one or two states, one candidate seeks a recount and the other goes to court?  (AP Photo/Alan Diaz, File)
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A disputed ballot being examined in Florida in 2000. Pic: AP

What happens after a winner is declared?

Whether a winner is declared on the night or in the following days, they aren’t officially elected until the electoral votes are formally cast and counted.

Electors cast them on 17 December, they are counted and certified by Congress on 6 January and then the new president will take office after being inaugurated on 20 January.

Unlike the general election in the UK, there is a transition period between the election result and the new president taking over.

During the gap, Mr Biden will continue as president, with the election winner known as the president-elect until the transfer of power in January.

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Trump admits tariffs ‘disturbance’ as China says it is ‘ready for any type of war’ with US

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Trump admits tariffs 'disturbance' as China says it is 'ready for any type of war' with US

Donald Trump has admitted his tariffs on major trading partners will cause “a little disturbance” – as China said it was “ready” for “any type of war” with the US.

The US president made his comments in an address to Congress, hours after the levies on imports came into effect.

Producers in Mexico and Canada have been hit with a 25% tax on items they export to the US, while a 20% tariff has been applied to Chinese imports.

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Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
Pic:Reuters/AP
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Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The US president has admitted his tariffs will cause ‘a little disturbance’ – as China responds. Pic: Reuters/AP

Stock markets, which Mr Trump is said to pay close attention to, slid on the tariffs news.

Exporters in the affected countries as well as businesses in the US and economists have raised concerns about the potential price-raising impact of the tariffs.

Making imports more expensive will likely make goods more expensive and could push prices up across the board.

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Trump’s Congress speech unwrapped

Concern over threat to interest rates

A cycle of high inflation could lead to interest rates being higher for longer in the US, the world’s largest economy, which could dampen economic activity.

A slowed US economy would have global consequences but even without a hit to the States, there are fears of a global trade war – in which countries add their own trade barriers in the form of tariffs.

The Chinese embassy in the US posted on X: “If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”

China imposes retaliatory tariffs

The president, however, said he was “just getting started” after 43 days into his second term.

China and Canada have retaliated with their own tariffs against the US.

From next week China will add its own 15% levy on a range of agricultural products such as chicken, wheat, corn and cotton.

An extra 10% will be added to soya beans, pork, beef, fruit, vegetables and dairy products imports.

The country has also raised additional complaints against the US with the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

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‘Dumb’: Canadian PM criticises Trump over tariffs
Political division in US has never looked like this

Compromise ‘as early as Wednesday’?

Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau said his country was launching its own WTO challenge and described the US tariffs as a “dumb thing to do”.

He also warned the move by the Trump administration would impact American workplaces and add to inflation in the US.

Addressing the American public, he said: “We don’t want this… but your government has chosen to do this to you.”

Canada has announced the imposition of 25% tariffs on US imports worth C$30bn (£16.3bn).

But US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick struck a different note on tariffs and on Monday said the president will “probably” announce a compromise with Canada and Mexico as early as Wednesday.

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Trump responds to Zelenskyy letter in marathon Congress speech

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Trump responds to Zelenskyy letter in marathon Congress speech

Donald Trump has said he “appreciates” President Zelenskyy’s renewed pledge to work with him on a peace deal – and that Russia has sent “strong signals” it’s also ready for a truce.

The US president made the comments during a marathon address to Congress in which he talked up his actions so far and set out priorities for the future.

“We have accomplished more in 43 days than most administrations accomplished in 4 years, 8 years – and we are just getting started,” the president said.

But it in a highly divided Congress, Democrats registered their dissent with stone faces, placards calling out “lies” and one member’s ejection.

Mr Trump said he’d received an “important letter” from the Ukrainian leader saying he would work under his leadership to reach a peace deal.

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Quotes he read matched a post by Mr Zelenskyy earlier on Tuesday in which he expressed regret for last week’s row and said he was ready to sign a minerals pact.

More on Donald Trump

“The letter reads Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer,” Mr Trump said.

“I appreciate that he sent this letter. Just got it a little while ago,” he added.

The president told a packed House chamber that Moscow had also indicated that they were ready for peace.

He said: “Simultaneously, we’ve had serious discussions with Russia and have received strong signals that they are ready for peace. Wouldn’t that be beautiful?”

Longest speech

However, the majority of Mr Trump’s speech in the Capitol in Washington DC focussed on domestic issues.

Protest signs at Trump speech. Pic: Reuters
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Democrats held protest signs during the speech. Pic: Reuters

At one hour and 39 minute, it was the longest annual address a president has delivered to Congress, breaking Bill Clinton’s record of one hour and 28 minutes.

Mr Trump lauded his nascent second stint in the White House and said he’d taken “unrelenting action” that had already achieved more than some administrations manage in years.

The president began his speech by proclaiming “America is back!” – prompting enthusiastic chants of “USA”.

Mr Trump said “the American Dream is surging – bigger and better than ever before”.

However, his remarks were met with jeers from Democrats and the House speaker called on the serjeant-at-arms to eject representative Al Green for refusing to stay quiet. Mr Green had stood up and shouted at Mr Trump, gesturing toward the president with his cane.

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Congressman ejected during Trump speech

Other Democrats waved paddles with statements including “false” and “Musk steals”. Some wore blue and yellow in solidarity with Ukraine.

With vice president JD Vance sat behind him, Mr Trump reeled off a list of his actions since he started his second term in January.

Among others, he mentioned rolling back the Paris climate accords, removing the “tyranny” of diversity policies, leaving the World Health Organization and the naming of the ‘Gulf of America’.

“Our country will be woke no longer,” he declared.

There was also a special mention for Elon Musk’s government efficiency department, DOGE, which has controversially cut thousands of jobs already.

President Trump claimed the billionaire’s efforts were saving the country billions by cutting waste and fraud.

Elon Musk acknowledges the applause. Pic: Reuters
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Elon Musk stood to receive applause for his work with DOGE. Pic: Reuters

Mr Musk was there in person, unusually in a suit, and stood to acknowledge the applause from the mass of Republicans in the chamber.

“Thank you very much, we appreciate it,” Mr Trump told him.

The president also reaffirmed his commitment to tariffs after measures targeting Canada, China and Mexico took effect yesterday.

He said the US had been “ripped off for decades by every country on earth” and that tariffs were also about “protecting the soul of our country”.

The president has claimed previously they are in response to the three countries not doing enough to halt the flow of powerful drugs such as fentanyl.

In response, China’s US embassy tweeted ominously: “If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”

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‘Whatever they tariff us, we will tariff them’

The president also said he would “make America affordable again” and that President Biden hadn’t done enough to control inflation.

“Joe Biden especially let the price of eggs get out of control – and we are working hard to get it back down. A major focus of our fight to defeat inflation is rapidly reducing the cost of energy,” he added.

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President treads fine line between a deal and blackmail

Illegal immigration also took up a chunk of his record-breaking speech.

The president repeated his well-worn pledge to clamp down on people entering through the southern border and reverse what he called “insane open-border policies”.

To another burst of applause, he said he had designated some South America gangs as “terrorist” organisations.

Greenland and the Panama Canal also got a mention.

The president said America intended to reclaim the famous shipping passage – which it relinquished control over in 1999 – and repeated his ambition to own the vast Danish territory.

Melania Trump waves in Congress. Pic: Reuters
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First lady Melania Trump also got a warm welcome. Pic: Reuters

Congress was packed for the speech. Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

Addressing Greenlanders, he said: “We strongly support your right to determine your own future, and if you choose, we welcome you into the United States of America.”

“We need Greenland for national security and even international security,” he said. “And we’re working with everybody involved to try and get it… and I think we’re going to get it, one way or the other.”

Cancer patient D.J. Daniel is sworn in as a federal agent. Pic: AP
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DJ Daniel was made a ‘Secret Service agent’. Pic: AP

First lady Melania Trump watched the speech from on high in the gallery, with guests also including the family of the firefighter killed during the assassination attempt last summer, and a man recently freed from a Russian jail.

There was also a heart-warming moment where a child recovering from brain cancer was summoned to stand up.

Wearing a police uniform, 13-year-old DJ Daniel was lifted into the air in disbelief by his dad as President Trump told him: “I am asking our new Secret Service director, Sean Curran, to officially make you an agent of the United States Secret Service. Thank you, DJ.”

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Trump speech: In a chamber thick with acrimony, the sales pitch quickly descended into a sporting event

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Trump speech: In a chamber thick with acrimony, the sales pitch quickly descended into a sporting event

He made us wait for a punchline but he got there.

For an address that was trailed as “fireworks” by Team Trump, finding a fresh news line was more hard work than firework. From Donald Trump, we’d heard it before.

Until, that is, he got to Ukraine, Zelenskyy, the mineral deal and the “peace” beyond.

He said the Ukrainian president had been in touch saying he was ready to sign an agreement on minerals with the US “at any time that is convenient for you”.

It’s what he wanted to hear and his reaction sounded like a breakthrough, following the breakdown at the Oval Office between the pair.

Live reaction to President Trump’s speech to Congress

Trump said: “I appreciate that he sent this letter. Just got it a little while ago. Simultaneously, we’ve had serious discussions with Russia and have received strong signals that they are ready for peace. Wouldn’t that be beautiful.”

More on Donald Trump

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Trump tells Congress ‘Ukraine is ready for peace’

It was the big headline from a nearly two-hour speech that was disrupted and defined by Democratic protest. It’s what America’s political division looks like – like it’s never looked before.

Donald Trump arrived for his big night a president unprecedented, divisive, and box-office. So was this.

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In a Capitol chamber thick with acrimony, he was led in down an aisle where they cheered him on one side and on the other they remained silent, sullen and seated. One Democrat held a sign that read: “This is not normal.” It was grabbed by a Representative across the aisle and thrown into the air.

This annual address to Congress is, typically, an occasion when a sitting president sits his people down, tells them where they are and where they’re going. This was an opportunity to draw breath and reflect after 43 days of a presidency in perpetual motion.

Many Democrats wore pink to signify their anger at Trump policies they claim adversely affect women Pic: AP
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Many Democrats wore pink to signify their anger at Trump policies they claim adversely affect women Pic: AP

In the event, the sales pitch quickly descended into a sporting event. Democrats held signs that read “Musk Steals” and “That’s a lie”. Female representatives dressed in pink to protest at Trump policies they said were negatively impacting women and families, and other Democrats took off jackets to reveal shirts with the slogans “Resist” and “No more kings”.

Then there was the ejection of Representative Al Green. He heckled Trump and later said that hearing the president talking about his mandate “triggered something” in him.

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Congressman ejected during Trump speech

It all reflected where the Democrats are 43 days into this presidency – furious, yet fragmented. Earlier in the day, party members had been urged by their House leader Hakeem Jeffries to show opposition as a check and balance against the “excesses of the administration”.

The party hasn’t come to a unified view on how to play this president – they share the personal animosity, if not the political instinct.

On the podium, Donald Trump had a more comfortable night than his last joint address in 2020.

Then, he had Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi rip up a copy of his speech. Last night, he was flanked by Vice-President JD Vance and Republican Speaker Mike Johnson bearing expressions of true love.

Trump, Vance and Johnson in Congress. Pic: Reuters
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Trump was flanked by cheerleaders Vance and Johnson Pic: Reuters

They laughed in all the right places to a speech that will have felt familiar. “America is back,” proclaimed Trump in kicking off an extended recap, a brag and not a humble one, of a presidency he said was “just getting started”.

A big story in the build-up had been tariffs, stock markets tumbling and worries that smouldering trade wars could destabilise the US economy.

The concerns are shared by economists and Republican lawmakers and Trump’s commerce Secretary had suggested he might be preparing to announce a compromise.

Not last night, he didn’t.

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