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Donald Trump says he would end Russia’s war in Ukraine should he return to the White House – but any rushed deal will likely leave Kyiv much weaker and European security in even greater peril.

Another major flashpoint a Trump presidency would immediately seek to influence is the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.

Mr Trump came close to direct war with Tehran during his first term in office and prior restraint could well give way to direct confrontation this time around.

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Then there is the overwhelming longer-term challenge posed by China, with North Korea another growing headache especially after Mr Trump tried but failed to woo the leader of the hermit state during his first stint as commander-in-chief.

President Donald Trump meets North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Wednesday, Feb. 27, 2019, in Hanoi. (AP Photo/ Evan Vucci)
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Mr Trump meets North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in 2019. Pic: AP

With the US election on a knife edge, hostile and friendly capitals around the world have been gaming what a second Trump White House might mean for their respective national interests and for the most pressing global security threats.

Mr Trump’s track record of unpredictability is a challenge for traditional foes – but also for Washington’s closest allies, in particular fellow members of the NATO alliance.

The Republican nominee has made no secret of his frustration at how the US has for decades bankrolled the security blanket that protects Europe.

During his first term as president, Mr Trump threatened to withdraw the US from the alliance – a move that would almost certainly sound its death knell. His rhetoric did help to spur allies to dig deeper into their pockets and spend more on their militaries, though.

But the damage of years of underinvestment is deep and the pace of recovery is too slow for European NATO allies and Canada to credibly stand on their own as a potent military force any time soon.

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy meet at Trump Tower in New York City, U.S., September 27, 2024. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton REFILE - QUALITY REPEAT
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Meeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York in September – but what would a Trump presidency mean for Ukraine’s war with Russia? Pic: Reuters

In terms of immediacy when it comes to global crises, the impact of a Trump victory would be felt most acutely by Ukraine and also by Iran.

The presidential candidate has repeatedly claimed that he would quickly end the Ukraine war, though without explaining how or what peace would look like.

In an indication of where his priorities lie, however, he has accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of being the “greatest salesman on earth” for securing tens of billions of dollars in weapons and other assistance that Washington has given to Kyiv.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump are seen during the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina November 30, 2018. REUTERS/Marcos Brindicci
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Pic: Reuters

Yet – coupled with Ukraine’s willingness to fight – that military aid is the biggest reason why Ukraine has managed to withstand almost 1,000 days of Vladimir Putin’s war.

Stop the flow of American weapons, and Ukrainian troops – despite their own ingenuity and the support of other allies – will simply lack the firepower to keep resisting the onslaught.

Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris meets with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House campus in Washington, U.S., September 26, 2024. Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY.
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Kamala Harris believes US support for Mr Zelenskyy and Ukraine is vital. Pic: Reuters

By contrast, US vice president Kamala Harris, who is vying for the top job, has made clear that she views continued support to Ukraine as being as vital to US and Western interests as it is to Kyiv’s – a far more familiar stance that echoes the view of her NATO partners.

While US support for Ukraine would undoubtedly change under a Trump administration, that is not the same as facilitating a complete surrender.

The former president – who portrays himself as the ultimate dealmaker and has adopted a new election slogan – “Trump will fix it” – will not want to be held responsible for the total absorption of Ukraine into Mr Putin’s orbit.

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Putin and Iran

His relationship with the Russian president is a particularly interesting dynamic.

When president, he infamously said he trusted Mr Putin’s denials over his own intelligence agencies when it came to claims about Russian interference in the 2016 US election.

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But with the right advice, might a future President Trump be able to use his connection with Mr Putin to the West’s advantage?

At the very least, it adds a new level of unpredictability – which is perhaps the most important element when it comes to assessing the potential impact on the world of a second Trump term.

Donald Trump said 'as long as I'm President of the United States, Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon'
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Donald Trump said in 2020 ‘as long as I’m president of the United States, Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon’. Pic: Reuters

On Iran, in stark contrast to his approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine, a future President Trump may well back much greater US military support for Israel’s conflict against Tehran and its proxies – perhaps even direct involvement by US forces in strikes on Iran.

Mr Trump has an even tougher stance towards Tehran and its nuclear ambitions than Joe Biden’s administration.

His decision to rip up a major nuclear deal with Iran was one of his most significant foreign policy acts during his four years as president.

It is also personal, with Iran accused of hacking the Trump campaign in recent months – an attack that would surely only heighten tensions with Iran during any second Trump term.

On election night, Sky News will have access to the most comprehensive exit poll and vote-counting results from every state, county and demographic across America through its US-partner network NBC.

You can find out more about Sky News’ coverage here.

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Protests held in Slovakia after PM meets with Putin in Moscow

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Protests held in Slovakia after PM meets with Putin in Moscow

Slovakia’s prime minister has drawn criticism from across Europe and from his own people after his surprise visit to Moscow for face-to-face talks with Vladimir Putin on Sunday.

Robert Fico is only the third EU leader to visit Mr Putin in Moscow since the Russian president ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

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The Kremlin said the two leaders discussed “the international situation” and Russian natural gas deliveries.

Russian natural gas still flows through Ukraine and to some other European countries, including Slovakia, under a five-year agreement signed before the war that is due to expire at the end of the year.

Vladimir Putin, right, and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico shake hands during their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow. Pic: AP
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Vladimir Putin, right, and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico shake hands during their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow. Pic: AP

Volodymyr Zelenskyy told EU leaders last week that Ukraine had no intention of renewing the deal, which Mr Fico insisted would hurt Slovakia and its interests.

He said his visit to Moscow was a reaction to Mr Zelenskyy’s statement and that Mr Putin had told him that Russia was still ready to deliver gas to the West.

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‘It smells like treason’

In Slovakia’s capital, Bratislava, people took to the streets to protest after the meeting, with banners in support of Ukraine as well as unflattering depictions of Mr Fico on display.

One sign simply read: “It smells like treason.”

A protester holds a sign which translates as 'it smells like treason' during an anti-government demo in Slovakia, after the country's Prime Minister Robert Fico met Russia's Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Pic: Reuters
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A protester holds a sign which translates as ‘it smells like treason’ during an anti-government demo in Slovakia, after the country’s Prime Minister Robert Fico met Russia’s Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Pic: Reuters

Demonstrators attend an anti-government protest after Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Pic: Reuters
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Demonstrators at the protest. Pic: Reuters

Mr Zelenskyy said the “unwillingness” shown by Mr Fico to replace Russian gas is a “big security issue” for Europe, and questioned the potential financial incentives being offered to the Slovak leader.

“Why is this leader so dependent on Moscow? What is being paid to him, and what does he pay with?,” Mr Zelenskyy said.

In his nightly address on Monday, Mr Zelenskyy said that Mr Fico had received an offer of compensation for losses from the expiring transit deal, but that he “did not want compensation for the Slovaks”.

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‘Threat to whole of Europe’

In a statement, Ukraine’s foreign ministry said the “weakness, dependence and short-sightedness” of Mr Fico’s energy policy is a “threat to the whole of Europe”.

The Slovak leader’s “persistent attempts” to maintain energy dependence on Moscow is “surprising” and represents a “shameful policy of appeasement”, the Ukrainian ministry added.

The Czech government also criticised Mr Fico’s trip to Moscow, pointing to its own decision to wean itself off Russian energy.

“It was the Czech government that secured independence from Russian energy supplies so that we wouldn’t have to crawl in front of a mass murderer,” Czech foreign minister Jan Lipavsky said.

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Santa Tracker: The slip-up that started a 70-year-old festive tradition

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Santa Tracker: The slip-up that started a 70-year-old festive tradition

In early December 1955, the phone rang at an air base in Colorado Springs. The officers on the watch floor of the Continental Air Defense Command (CONAD) – who were defending the skies above the US and Canada – stiffened.

The Cold War was in full swing and tensions were running high.

The command’s director of operations Colonel Harry Shoup answered the call. On the other end was a child’s voice asking: “Is this Santa Claus?”

According to the colonel’s daughter Terri Van Keuren, now 75, her father initially thought it was a prank, and replied: “I’m the commander of the Combat Alert Center. Who’s this?”

In response, the child started crying and asked if he was one of “Santa’s helpers”.

Col. Harry Shoup, the operations officer at NORAD on Dec. 24, 1955, answered a child's wrong-number call and began the tradition of NORAD tracking Santa. Shoup died March 14, 2009, yet the tradition he started decades ago continues to bring holiday cheer to millions of children around the world. Pic: David Bedard
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Colonel Harry Shoup. Pic: David Bedard

Terri van Keuren, whose father started the Santa Tracker
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Terri van Keuren was six years old when her father began the Santa Tracker tradition

The colonel then decided to play along, replying that he was indeed Santa Claus and mustering a convincing “ho-ho-ho”.

This surprise call started the nearly 70-year tradition of the Santa Tracker, which allows children around the world to track the whereabouts of Father Christmas via a livestream and a phone line answered by volunteers.

It is now run by CONAD’s successor, the North American Aerospace Defence Command (NORAD).

Nearly 1,000 volunteers cycled through the NORAD Tracks Santa Operations Center on Peterson Space Force Base, Colorado, between 4 a.m. and 10 p.m. Dec. 24, 2022. Volunteers providing updated information on Santa's location and gifts delivered worked in two-hour shifts answering phone calls from children and adults located around the globe. Pic: Department of Defense/Chuck Marsh
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The NORAD Tracks Santa Operations Center on Peterson Space Force Base, Colorado, on Christmas Eve 2022. Pic: Department of Defense/Chuck Marsh

But how did a child seemingly get the phone number of a colonel in the US air force?

The American department store Sears had printed an advert in a local newspaper telling children they could call Santa, Terri explains.

“They had printed one digit wrong in the phone number. And it was dad’s top secret number.”

Pic: NORAD DVIDS
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Children can use a livestream to track Father Christmas as he delivers his presents. Pic: NORAD DVIDS

Colonel Shoup called the phone company and asked for a new number for his office.

Meanwhile, the phone at CONAD was “ringing off the hook” and Colonel Shoup told his staff they were to answer the calls as Santa Claus.

In the story told by Terri, on 24 December that year her parents arrived at the base to deliver cookies to those on duty, and found the military establishment unusually festive.

A picture of a sleigh had been drawn by a map writer on plexiglass – which was used to mark where unidentified flying objects were located.

“Next thing they knew, dad was calling the radio station. ‘This is Colonel Shoup, the commander of the Combat Alert Center in Colorado Springs. And we have an unidentified flying object. Why, it looks like a sleigh’,” says Terri.

Terri, who lives in Castle Rock, Colorado, was six years old when her father became the “Santa Colonel”. She says the NORAD Santa Tracker, which reaches millions of children around the world every year, is his “legacy”.

NORAD’s tracking of Santa is a military operation in itself beginning on 1 December.

Brigadier General Jocelyn Schermerhorn, a senior US military officer in Canada, tells Sky News how the day unfolds on Christmas Eve.

“We have about a thousand people come together to set up the operations centre that is used to track Santa and that allows anyone to call in to check on his whereabouts”.

Pic: Charles Marsh
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Pic: Charles Marsh

Volunteers are responsible for answering calls from tens of thousands of children around the world. In 2022, 78,000 calls were answered at Peterson Space Force Base.

For 10 years Terri was one of these volunteers. “I always wore a t-shirt that had a picture of my dad. It says: ‘My dad’s the Santa Colonel’.”

What’s next for the Santa Tracker? Terri says her father’s festive story is so famous she’s “had several requests to make a movie out of it”.

Head to Sky News’ YouTube and other social media channels to watch NORAD’s Santa Tracker and find out where he is in the world delivering presents.

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‘Panic sets in’ for family of British dad John Hardy missing in Spain

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'Panic sets in' for family of British dad John Hardy missing in Spain

The sister of a British man who has been missing in Spain for nine days has said “panic” is setting in.

Courtney George last spoke to her brother John Hardy on Saturday 14 December, around the time she believes he was due to drive from Alicante to Benidorm.

She reported him missing after he failed to get on his flight home on Wednesday 18 December.

Mr Hardy, from Belfast, has several tattoos, including half a sleeve on his right arm and a panther on his torso.

Police in Northern Ireland have confirmed a 37-year-old is believed to be missing.

Ms George said her brother, who has two sons, would “never” go so long without contacting her.

“Another day waking up hoping what is going on is a nightmare, but realising this is real life. The panic sets in,” she wrote on Facebook yesterday.

“Another day, no contact from John – never ever would this happen… What’s Christmas without family? My big brother hasn’t just vanished! That doesn’t happen!”

She added today his sons “need to know” where their dad is.

She continued: “There will be no Christmas for my family. The only thing we are focused on is getting our loved one back.”

The distressed Ms George is offering a reward for anyone with “any helpful information to find John”.

She has also launched a fundraising page on GoFundMe to pay for family members to travel to Spain to hunt for her missing brother.

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The Police Service in Northern Ireland said the force had “received a report on Wednesday, 18th December that a 37-year-old man from Belfast, holidaying in Spain, was believed to be missing”.

It added: “Enquiries are ongoing in conjunction with our international policing partners.”

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