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Donald Trump says he would end Russia’s war in Ukraine should he return to the White House – but any rushed deal will likely leave Kyiv much weaker and European security in even greater peril.

Another major flashpoint a Trump presidency would immediately seek to influence is the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.

Mr Trump came close to direct war with Tehran during his first term in office and prior restraint could well give way to direct confrontation this time around.

US election latest: Harris and Trump make final pitches

Then there is the overwhelming longer-term challenge posed by China, with North Korea another growing headache especially after Mr Trump tried but failed to woo the leader of the hermit state during his first stint as commander-in-chief.

President Donald Trump meets North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Wednesday, Feb. 27, 2019, in Hanoi. (AP Photo/ Evan Vucci)
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Mr Trump meets North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in 2019. Pic: AP

With the US election on a knife edge, hostile and friendly capitals around the world have been gaming what a second Trump White House might mean for their respective national interests and for the most pressing global security threats.

Mr Trump’s track record of unpredictability is a challenge for traditional foes – but also for Washington’s closest allies, in particular fellow members of the NATO alliance.

The Republican nominee has made no secret of his frustration at how the US has for decades bankrolled the security blanket that protects Europe.

During his first term as president, Mr Trump threatened to withdraw the US from the alliance – a move that would almost certainly sound its death knell. His rhetoric did help to spur allies to dig deeper into their pockets and spend more on their militaries, though.

But the damage of years of underinvestment is deep and the pace of recovery is too slow for European NATO allies and Canada to credibly stand on their own as a potent military force any time soon.

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy meet at Trump Tower in New York City, U.S., September 27, 2024. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton REFILE - QUALITY REPEAT
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Meeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York in September – but what would a Trump presidency mean for Ukraine’s war with Russia? Pic: Reuters

In terms of immediacy when it comes to global crises, the impact of a Trump victory would be felt most acutely by Ukraine and also by Iran.

The presidential candidate has repeatedly claimed that he would quickly end the Ukraine war, though without explaining how or what peace would look like.

In an indication of where his priorities lie, however, he has accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of being the “greatest salesman on earth” for securing tens of billions of dollars in weapons and other assistance that Washington has given to Kyiv.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump are seen during the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina November 30, 2018. REUTERS/Marcos Brindicci
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Pic: Reuters

Yet – coupled with Ukraine’s willingness to fight – that military aid is the biggest reason why Ukraine has managed to withstand almost 1,000 days of Vladimir Putin’s war.

Stop the flow of American weapons, and Ukrainian troops – despite their own ingenuity and the support of other allies – will simply lack the firepower to keep resisting the onslaught.

Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris meets with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House campus in Washington, U.S., September 26, 2024. Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY.
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Kamala Harris believes US support for Mr Zelenskyy and Ukraine is vital. Pic: Reuters

By contrast, US vice president Kamala Harris, who is vying for the top job, has made clear that she views continued support to Ukraine as being as vital to US and Western interests as it is to Kyiv’s – a far more familiar stance that echoes the view of her NATO partners.

While US support for Ukraine would undoubtedly change under a Trump administration, that is not the same as facilitating a complete surrender.

The former president – who portrays himself as the ultimate dealmaker and has adopted a new election slogan – “Trump will fix it” – will not want to be held responsible for the total absorption of Ukraine into Mr Putin’s orbit.

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Putin and Iran

His relationship with the Russian president is a particularly interesting dynamic.

When president, he infamously said he trusted Mr Putin’s denials over his own intelligence agencies when it came to claims about Russian interference in the 2016 US election.

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But with the right advice, might a future President Trump be able to use his connection with Mr Putin to the West’s advantage?

At the very least, it adds a new level of unpredictability – which is perhaps the most important element when it comes to assessing the potential impact on the world of a second Trump term.

Donald Trump said 'as long as I'm President of the United States, Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon'
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Donald Trump said in 2020 ‘as long as I’m president of the United States, Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon’. Pic: Reuters

On Iran, in stark contrast to his approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine, a future President Trump may well back much greater US military support for Israel’s conflict against Tehran and its proxies – perhaps even direct involvement by US forces in strikes on Iran.

Mr Trump has an even tougher stance towards Tehran and its nuclear ambitions than Joe Biden’s administration.

His decision to rip up a major nuclear deal with Iran was one of his most significant foreign policy acts during his four years as president.

It is also personal, with Iran accused of hacking the Trump campaign in recent months – an attack that would surely only heighten tensions with Iran during any second Trump term.

On election night, Sky News will have access to the most comprehensive exit poll and vote-counting results from every state, county and demographic across America through its US-partner network NBC.

You can find out more about Sky News’ coverage here.

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Canadian PM criticises Trump over tariffs – and sends bold message to Americans

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Canadian PM criticises Trump over tariffs - and sends bold message to Americans

Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau has labelled new tariffs imposed by US president Donald Trump as a “dumb thing to do”.

It was confirmed overnight that tariffs on goods coming into the US from Mexico, Canada and China had come into effect.

Mr Trump’s expansion of tariffs to cover the top three trading partners of the United States has been met with promises of retaliation and a retreat in stock market values globally.

Mr Trudeau, speaking in a press conference on Tuesday, said his government would file a legal challenge against the US at the World Trade Organisation, and that Canada was considering its options.

“Today the United States has launched a trade war against Canada, its closest partner and ally, its closest friend,” he said.

“They have chosen to sabotage their agenda. There is absolutely no justification or need for these tariffs today.”

Justin Trudeau holds a news conference on imposed U.S. tariffs as Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly, Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Public Safety Minister David McGuinty look on in Ottawa.
Pic: The Canadian Press/AP
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Justin Trudeau holds a news conference on Trump’s new tarrifs.
Pic: The Canadian Press/AP

He also described the tariffs as a “dumb thing to do” and that it undermined his understanding of an agreement he made with Mr Trump over fentanyl production.

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Mr Trudeau also warned it would impact American workplaces and add to inflation in the US.

Addressing the American public, he said: “We don’t want this… but your government has chosen to do this to you.”

The new tariffs will be felt heavily by all exporters in those countries, but also by US companies which rely on supplies from them.

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Mexico and Canada face tariffs of 25%, with 10% for Canadian energy. Tariffs on Chinese imports have doubled, raising them from 10% to 20%.

Canada announced it would retaliate immediately, imposing 25% tariffs on US imports worth C$30bn (£16.3bn).

It added that the tariffs would be extended in 21 days to cover more US goods entering the country without a climbdown.

Mr Trump responded by saying that he would match any Canadian tariffs immediately through higher duties.

At a news conference, outgoing prime minister Justin Trudeau described the tariffs as “dumb” and said Canadian companies would be given government support that would even extend to protections against takeover interest caused by the trade war.

Mexico threatened both reciprocal tariffs along with non-tariff measures.

China also vowed to retaliate and reiterated its stance that the Trump administration was trying to “shift the blame” and
“bully” Beijing over fentanyl flows.

Stock markets were down sharply across the world on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the broader S&P 500 on course for big falls for a second day.

The Nasdaq later entered positive territory.

Share prices for carmakers were among the worst performers generally.

Companies including General Motors, VW and Mercedes saw sharp falls as each has factories in Mexico which sell into the US.

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European stock markets had achieved record levels on Monday on the back of higher defence spending pledges.

But the German DAX closed more than 3.5% off. Its leading faller was Continental, the car parts manufacturer best known for its tyres, which saw an 11% decline.

The CAC in Paris was down by almost 2% while the FTSE 100 closed 1.3% lower as fears of an expanded trade spat overcame global growth hopes.

The implications were playing out more widely.

Oil costs were down by 1.5%, with Brent crude trading at six-month low of $70 a barrel.

Cryptocurrencies were hit too amid the flight from risk. Bitcoin was trading at $83,170 – far below the $100k+ witnessed when Mr Trump took office.

There was also evidence that investors saw the tariffs as an own goal because the US dollar – usually a safe haven in times of market woes – came under pressure.

The pound was trading at its highest level versus the dollar since mid-December at just shy of $1.28.

The main threat to the US is that higher import costs, caused by tariffs, push up inflation as those costs are passed on.

Consumers in the US could see price hikes within days, one expert said.

Gustavo Flores-Macias, a public policy professor at Cornell University, New York, said “the automobile sector, in particular, is likely to see considerable negative consequences”.

This is due to supply chains that “crisscross the three countries in the manufacturing process” and ” because of the expected increase in the price of vehicles, which can dampen demand,” he added.

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The Trump administration is gearing up to bring in other tariffs in the coming weeks.

On 2 April, reciprocal tariffs will take effect on all countries that impose duties on US products.

He is also considering 25% tariffs on goods from the EU “very soon” after claiming the bloc was created to “screw the United States”.

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Zelenskyy is ‘untrustworthy crook and punk’, says ex-Trump aide

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Zelenskyy is 'untrustworthy crook and punk', says ex-Trump aide

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been called a “crook” and a “punk” by a former top aide to Donald Trump.

Steve Bannon also told Sky’s Ali Fortescue he thinks the US president should pull out of a planned minerals deal with Ukraine.

In a wide-ranging interview on the Politics Hub, the ex-chief strategist said Mr Trump’s efforts to improve relations with Russia is a “brilliant” move.

Steve Bannon speaks at a conservative conference in Maryland earlier this month. Pic: AP
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Steve Bannon speaks at a conservative conference in Maryland earlier this month. Pic: AP

Mr Bannon said the UK and Europe need to “wake up” and realise they do not have to be worried about Russia invading the rest of Europe, as they do not have the army to do it.

“The rapprochement of the United States with Russia breaks the control of the Chinese Community Party… it’s a brilliant stroke.”

Follow latest: Zelenskyy’s olive branch to Trump

He added the EU “will come along with it” and insisted Mr Trump is “going out of his way to be a peacemaker”.

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But he was clear about whether the leader should agree to sign a deal with Ukraine‘s president for rare minerals, which was supposed to happen on Friday until the pair had a heated row in the Oval Office.

“Absolutely not. He [Zelenskyy] had his shot. Zelenskyy is untrustworthy. He’s a crook and a punk. And he showed what a punk he was in the Oval Office the other day,” said Mr Bannon.

He suggested the row was prompted by Mr Zelenskyy trying to get security guarantees from the US, something the American public would not accept.

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Minerals deal a ‘gift’ to Ukraine

“They told him, time and time and time again, do not bring up security guarantees. A security guarantee means… American troops and that will never happen,” said Mr Bannon.

He also said the deal was unnecessary and only a “very general framework” anyway, which risked tying the US to the “future reconstruction of the country”.

“We don’t need a rare earth deal. The United States doesn’t need rare earths from Ukraine. That was a total gift to him and the Ukrainian people.”

However, sources have told the Reuters news agency that Mr Trump is planning to announce the US and Ukraine’s minerals agreement during his address to Congress on Tuesday.

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Mr Trump has paused military aid to Kyiv in the most dramatic step yet in his pivot towards closer ties with Russia.

‘Let EU underwrite Ukraine security’

Mr Bannon also took aim at European nations, saying defence spending was insufficient: “Let them [the EU] step up and let them underwrite the security of Ukraine.”

In particular he described the UK’s commitment to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence as “nothing”. He also criticised Britain’s combat capabilities saying the economy “can’t afford it”, adding the “bond market already turfed out Liz Truss“.

He said the “reality” is that much of NATO did not spend enough on defence, has “faked” for decades its capability to take on Russia, and the military alliance would struggle to put up “two combat divisions”.

Mr Bannon also accused “much of the British establishment” of being in business with the Chinese Communist Party.

In terms of UK politics, he says he is “a Nigel Farage guy and believes in Reform“.

Mr Farage is close to the US president but has had to be slightly more reserved in his praise of him of late – knowing British public opinion is very much behind Mr Zelenskyy and Ukraine.

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Zelenskyy says Ukraine ‘ready to come to negotiating table’ – after US pauses military aid

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Zelenskyy says Ukraine 'ready to come to negotiating table' - after US pauses military aid

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Ukraine is “ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible” in the search for a “lasting” peace with Russia.

The Ukrainian president made the statement on social media hours after Donald Trump’s White House announced it was pausing US military aid to Kyiv.

He also said he was “ready to sign” a deal giving the US access to minerals in Ukraine – which has been a sticking point between the countries in the last week, with Kyiv seeking security guarantees in return.

It comes after vice president JD Vance said a potential European peacekeeping force in Ukraine would be “20,000 troops from some random country that hasn’t fought a war in 30 or 40 years” – sparking anger from a number of UK politicians.

Ukraine war latest: White House meeting ‘regrettable’, says Zelenskyy

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The president ‘is focused on peace’.

The Ukrainian president stopped short of saying sorry in the statement, but outlined how the first stages of a possible peace deal might work.

He also reiterated how grateful he was for American support for Ukraine, after Mr Vance criticised him, claiming he had not shown enough gratitude during his explosive White House visit.

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Mr Zelenskyy added: “Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go the way it was supposed to be.

“It is regrettable that it happened this way. It is time to make things right.

“We would like future cooperation and communication to be constructive.”

Trump ‘focused on peace’ – but attacks Zelenskyy again

Earlier, a White House official, speaking anonymously, said: “President [Trump] has been clear that he is focused on peace.

“We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution.”

There was no indication about the possible length of the pause, and there’s been no comment so far from Ukraine.

It comes after the astonishing clash between the two leaders – as well as Mr Vance – in the Oval Office on Friday.

Mr Trump‘s berating of Mr Zelenskyy was condemned by many and has led to a show of support from European leaders as they try to formulate their own way forward.

The US president attacked the Ukrainian leader again on Monday, telling reporters he should be “more appreciative”.

US military aid has included Patriot air defence systems. Pic: Reuters
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The tens of billion in US aid has included Patriot air defence systems. Pic: Reuters

Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Pic: Reuters
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy. File pic: Reuters

Writing on Truth Social, Mr Trump also said Mr Zelenskyy had made “the worst statement that could have been made” after he commented that peace was still “very, very far away”.

“America will not put up with it for much longer!” he posted.

“It is what I was saying, this guy doesn’t want there to be peace as long as he has America’s backing,” the president added.

Mr Zelenskyy then posted on X that Ukraine was “working together with America and our European partners and very much hope on US support on the path to peace”.

“Peace is needed as soon as possible,” he said.

‘Music to the ears of Putin’

By David Blevins, US correspondent

President Trump’s decision to pause military aid to Ukraine marks a significant shift in US foreign policy, one previously considered unthinkable.

This blow to Ukraine’s defences in the face of Russian aggression will be music to the ears of President Putin. US military aid has kept Ukraine in this David and Goliath battle for three years.

It has funded what military analysts simplify as “the big stuff” of battle – artillery, anti-tank weapons, rockets and armoured vehicles. Trump’s decision to push pause disregards efforts by Keir Starmer and other European leaders to devise a peace plan.

Those already questioning Europe’s reliance on the US for defence will conclude they have been given the answer.

But the decision sets President Trump up for a potential confrontation with Republicans, who had approved the funding, in Congress.

White House sources say he wants President Zelenskyy to go on TV and apologise for the jaw-dropping showdown last Friday. But the Ukrainian president feels he has no apology to make for expressing his doubt about Russia’s commitment to peace.

Earlier, Trump side-stepped a question about a Kremlin diplomat claiming the US administration and Moscow were now aligned on foreign policy.

This weakening of Ukraine’s defence capability moves that question front and centre as he prepares to address Congress on Tuesday.

Despite the diplomatic crisis, Mr Trump has said a deal is still possible.

An agreement giving the US access to Ukraine’s rare earth metals was meant to have been signed by the two presidents on Friday.

It was billed as an important step in a future peace deal – and part payback for aid already received.

However, the dramatic falling out has thrown that into jeopardy.

Mr Zelenskyy wants the metals deal to include guarantees on halting Russia should it break the terms of any peace agreement.

Zelenskyy showed ‘lack of respect’

Mr Vance suggested on Monday that the metals pact was the best way to secure a lasting end to the war.

“If you want real security guarantees, if you want to actually ensure that Vladimir Putin does not invade Ukraine again, the very best security guarantee is to give Americans economic upside in the future of Ukraine,” Mr Vance told Fox News.

“That is a way better security guarantee than 20,000 troops from some random country that hasn’t fought a war in 30 or 40 years,” he added.

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Sky News gets rare access to drone launch

Mr Vance said Mr Zelenskyy had shown a “lack of respect” and “a certain sense of entitlement” in Friday’s trip to Washington.

He repeated that the door was still open if he altered his approach, but told Fox News he “still isn’t there”.

European and world leaders – who met Mr Zelenskyy at the weekend – have discussed a potential “coalition of the willing” to deploy peacekeepers and deter further Russian aggression.

UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said Britain was prepared to put “boots on the ground and planes in the air” under the plan – but it’s unclear who else might participate.

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How many countries will back Starmer’s plan?

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He told MPs on Monday that Britain must “lead from the front” on supporting Ukraine and the “security of our continent, the security of our country”.

However, the prime minister believes any international deployment of troops must have a US “backstop” deterrent to be taken seriously by Russia.

America has given around €64bn (£53bn) of military aid to Ukraine, compared with €62bn (£51.3bn) from European nations (including Britain).

The overall US total is €114bn (£94bn) and the European one €132bn (£109bn). This includes humanitarian aid and other financial assistance to keep the country running.

Following the weekend summit, the UK also pledged £1.6bn in finance for Ukraine to buy another 5,000 air defence missiles.

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