Germany’s coalition government on the brink of collapse, after key minister is sacked

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16 mins ago

November 7, 2024

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Germany’s ruling coalition is on the brink of collapse, triggering potential political chaos in Europe’s largest economy.

It means Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Social Democratic Party (SDP) face heading a minority government after sacking his finance minister Christian Lindner from the pro-business Free Democrats Party (FDP).

Mr Scholz made the decision after weeks of disputes among Germany’s coalition partners over ways to boost the country’s ailing economy.

Added to that, the government’s popularity has been sinking while far-right and far-left forces have been surging.

He said Mr Lindner “has broken my trust too often”, and claimed he was focused on the short-term survival of his own party. “This kind of selfishness is utterly incomprehensible,” he added.

The three other FDP ministers – for transport, justice, and education – all voluntarily left the government.

“Olaf Scholz refuses to recognise that our country needs a new economic model,” Mr Lindner said. “Olaf Scholz has showed he doesn’t have the strength to give his country a new boost.”

Mr Lindner had rejected tax increases or changes to Germany’s strict self-imposed limits on running up debt.

Social Democrats and the Greens, who are also part of the coalition, want to see massive state investment. They had rejected proposals by the FDP to cut welfare programmes.

It’s not if, but when, the coalition collapses

The German Chancellor is a controlled man, so the uncharacteristic anger on display as he announced he had sacked his finance minister and fixed a vote of confidence for January was telling.

The fractures in Germany’s coalition government have been widening for months.

The ailing economy, dismal showing in the European parliamentary elections and rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany party (AfD) have led to growing questions about when the coalition will collapse, rather than if it will.

Germany’s general election is currently pencilled in for September 2025 but if Olaf Scholz loses the confidence vote on 15 January, then a snap election is likely to take place by the end of March.

Current polls put the party of the former Chancellor Angela Merkel, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), in the lead followed by the AfD.

Using today’s numbers, the most likely scenario would be another coalition government potentially with the CDU, the social democrats and maybe even the Greens.

But all this is jumping ahead.

The hammer blow to the German government coalition on the day Donald Trump was re-elected is a coincidence but it’s also very bad timing.

The return of Trump raises questions around NATO, the war in Ukraine and possible trade wars in the future.

Europe now more than ever needs to be united; a task made more difficult when the leadership of its largest economic power is in crisis.

It leaves Mr Scholz relying on parliamentary majorities to pass legislation.

He plans to hold a confidence vote in his government on 15 January. The result could trigger snap elections by the end of March.

Scholz said he would ask Friedrich Merz, leader of the conservative opposition CDU, who are far ahead in polls, for support in passing the budget and boosting military spending.

Mr Merz is due to respond to the request later on Thursday.

Across 2024, Germany’s economy is expected to shrink – or at best flatline – for the second year in a row.

The country has struggled under external shocks and home-grown problems, including red tape and a shortage of skilled labour.

World

Donald Trump is still facing criminal charges – what happens now he has won US election?

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16 mins ago

November 7, 2024

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Donald Trump is still facing criminal charges - what happens now he has won US election?

Whoever picked up the keys to the White House, this was always going to be a historic election win.

A Kamala Harris victory would have made her the first female president. Donald Trump is the first convicted felon to become POTUS.

In May, Trump became the first former US president to be criminally convicted, for attempting to cover up a hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels during his 2016 campaign.

He was found guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records to commit election fraud. As it stands, he is due to be sentenced in this case later in November.

Mr Trump, who is due to be inaugurated as president in January, has also been embroiled in other state and federal criminal cases, as well as civil cases. He has pleaded not guilty to charges against him and alleged prosecutions are politically motivated.

Experts say it is likely the federal cases at least will “go away”.

‘Hush money’ – state case

This is the case relating to Stormy Daniels, for which Trump was found guilty of covering up his then lawyer’s $130,000 (£99,000) payment for her silence before the 2016 election, about a sexual encounter she alleges they had a decade earlier.

Trump is due to be sentenced in New York on 26 November – and could face up to four years in prison. His lawyers are now expected to ask Justice Juan Merchan to delay the hearing.

Initially set for July, Judge Merchan has already twice postponed the sentencing. This is in part due to a US Supreme Court ruling made in July, finding that presidents have broad immunity from prosecution over their official acts.

Mr Trump argues the case should be dismissed based on this, which prosecutors dispute.

Election subversion – federal case

Donald Trump is also charged with attempting to overturn his defeat in the 2020 election, which he lost to Joe Biden.

He has pleaded not guilty to criminal charges accusing him of a conspiracy to obstruct the process to collect and certify the results.

He was accused of using “dishonesty, fraud, and deceit” and spreading “pervasive and destabilising lies about election fraud”.

Again, this case has been slowed by the US Supreme Court ruling on presidents and immunity.

Election interference – state case

Mr Trump was formally booked at Georgia’s Fulton County jail in August 2023, charged over an alleged conspiracy to reverse his defeat specifically in the battleground state in the 2020 election.

While he was there, he had his mugshot and fingerprints taken before being released on bail. Speaking to media afterwards, he said: “What has taken place here is a travesty of justice. We did nothing wrong. I did nothing wrong and everybody knows that. I’ve never had such support.”

The election result in Georgia was memorably close, triggering two recounts, but ultimately Mr Biden won by 11,779 votes – or 0.23% of the five million cast.

It was certified by both Georgia’s Republican governor Brian Kemp and secretary of state Brad Raffensperger. But Mr Trump did not accept the result.

Prosecutors used state racketeering laws, developed to fight organised crime, to charge him and others, including his former lawyer Rudy Giuliani.

Mr Trump and eight of his 14 co-defendants in the case are appealing. They are seeking to disqualify the lead prosecutor, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, over alleged misconduct.

Misuse of classified documents – federal case

Mr Trump had also faced charges over classified documents he allegedly took from the White House, including deleting CCTV footage of his staff moving boxes at his Florida home.

However, a judge threw out this case against him on 15 July.

Details on the US nuclear weapons programmes, potential vulnerabilities of the nation and its allies, and plans for retaliatory military attacks were in some of the documents, the federal indictment said.

Prosecutors are appealing.

Civil cases

He is also appealing several civil lawsuits totalling more than $500m (about £388m), which likely won’t be affected by his win.

These include a civil fraud case in New York state, and cases brought by writer E Jean Carroll, who sued him for allegedly sexually assaulting her in the 1990s, and defaming her while he was president the first time.

The appeals court is expected to rule in the sexual assault case first, with the ruling expected at any time, according to NBC.

Mr Trump is also facing eight pending civil suits related to the attack on the US Capitol on 6 January 2021, following his complaints of voter fraud in the 2020 election.

No trial date has been set, but with appeals these could take months or even longer to be determined, NBC reports.

So what happens now?

Experts say his election victory will essentially end the criminal cases brought against him, at least for the time he occupies the White House.

He has previously said that should he become president again, he would fire US Special Counsel Jack Smith – who led the federal prosecutions – “within two seconds” of being sworn in.

While he will indeed have the authority to fire Mr Smith and shut down the federal cases, he will not have the same control over state cases in New York and Georgia.

However, being the US president is a unique position, and means it is unlikely he will face legal consequences in either case during his term in office.

Does that mean he gets off?

Sky News US correspondent James Matthews says this is a possibility, although he adds that the two state cases “are more complicated”.

As president, Mr Trump would have the power “to appoint officials of his choice at the Department of Justice,” Matthews added, and it is “probably fair to say their brief would include dropping the two federal cases”.

Can Trump pardon himself?

This is also a possibility, Matthews said. It falls within the power of the president, although a self-pardon has never been tested legally.

The issue of a pardon doesn’t apply in state cases – however, the conviction and prosecution are weakened by the Supreme Court ruling.

“Nor can evidence of official acts be used in evidence to support the prosecution of a crime committed out of office,” Matthews said.

“In both the New York appeal and Georgia case, expect Trump’s lawyers to point to evidence used to convict him – phone calls and behaviour whilst in the role of president – and claim it relates to official acts and, under the Supreme Court ruling, should be ruled inadmissible.”

Danny Cevallos, legal analyst for Sky News’ US partner NBC, said he could say with “a lot of confidence” that the federal cases “are going to go away”.

Mr Trump could appoint an attorney general “who will simply do his bidding and dismiss the case,” he said, or he could instruct the justice department “to not even bother with the appeal of the already dismissed federal case. Those cases are, for all intents and purposes, gone”.

Next up, the hush money case. Even if sentencing does happen on 26 November, “in all likelihood, it’s not a case that he’s going to get prison time”, Mr Cevallos said, due to a number of factors.

He added: “You have someone over 75 years old, no guns, no drugs, no violence… in the spectrum of criminals who might be able to get a probation-only or house arrest sentence, Donald Trump is in a high likelihood. That’s even if the case goes forward this month for sentencing, it might not.”

Finally, the case in Georgia is “mired in appeal”, Mr Cevallos said.

“In all likelihood, those cases will be put on pause. And four years from now, who knows what the political situation will be in Fulton County, Georgia.”

Fulton County is “not good at speedy trials in complex cases,” he added, so “Donald Trump’s case may never see the light of day in Georgia”.

World

Ireland’s Prime Minister Simon Harris reveals planned date for general election

Published

16 mins ago

November 7, 2024

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Ireland's Prime Minister Simon Harris reveals planned date for general election

Ireland’s prime minister has announced the planned date for a general election to be held this month.

Taoiseach Simon Harris said he hopes the election will take place on 29 November, formally kicking off a truncated campaign which will last mere weeks.

Mr Harris, 38, was appointed Irish prime minister – the youngest in the country’s history – after Leo Varadkar’s shock resignation in March.

He will travel to Aras an Uachtarain on Friday, the official residence of the Irish president, to seek the dissolution of Ireland’s Dail parliament.

Speaking to RTE News on Wednesday, Mr Harris said: “As I would have discussed with the other coalition leaders, it’s my hope that we will have polling day on this country on November 29.”

He added: “I’m looking forward to the weeks ahead and asking the people of Ireland for a mandate.”

There’s a clear reason why this election has been called

So the worst kept secret in Irish politics is finally out, and the people look set to head to the ballot boxes on 29 November.

The taoiseach employs several lofty explanations for why he has decided upon an early election, but it’s hard to look beyond political expediency.

The Fine Gael party has been flying in the polls since Simon Harris became leader in April, while the opposition is in freefall. Sinn Fein, Ireland’s main opposition party, dropped to 16% in one recent poll – the lowest level of support since 2019.

Its leader Mary Lou McDonald – once seen as Ireland’s first female taoiseach in waiting – has been battling a serious decline in support for a year, and is bogged down in firefighting a damaging series of internal party scandals, north and south of the border.

Why wait until next March for an election?

You can read Stephen Murphy’s full analysis here

After refusing to be drawn on the election date for weeks, Mr Harris made the announcement less than an hour after his coalition partner-turned-campaign rival Micheal Martin revealed that the election would be called on Friday.

Mr Harris could have waited until March when the coalition’s five-year term comes to an end to go to the polls, but he has been paving the way for an election in recent weeks, announcing 10.5bn euros (£8.75bn) in tax cuts and spending increases last month.

The election will bring to an end the historic coalition that brought together Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, who had been rivals dating back to the civil war.

It saw Mr Martin, the Fianna Fail leader, taking the taoiseach role for the first half of the lifetime of the government, later replaced by then-Fine Gael leader Mr Varadkar.

The last election was seen as a monumentally successful performance for Sinn Fein, which had the highest percentage of first-preference votes, but the party has struggled in more recent local and European elections.

World

Hurricane Rafael crashes into Cuba triggering island-wide power blackout

Published

3 hours ago

November 7, 2024

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Hurricane Rafael crashes into Cuba triggering island-wide power blackout

Cuba has been plunged into darkness after Hurricane Rafael slammed into the island as a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of 115mph (185kph).

The country’s electricity operator UNE said high winds had caused the electricity grid to collapse.

State-run TV reported the entire population of 10 million people was without power – part of a series of blackouts which have plagued the Caribbean island in recent weeks.

Rafael lashed Cuba’s capital Havana late on Wednesday afternoon, with wind and rain bringing down trees and power lines in the city.

The US-based National Hurricane Centre (NHC) warned of a “life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds and flash flooding” across much of western Cuba.

Schools and public transport in the city were suspended and flights were grounded, while police with loudspeakers began circling neighbourhoods encouraging people to shelter.

Last month Cuba suffered a total collapse of its national electric grid, leaving an estimated 10 million people without power for several days.

That coincided with Hurricane Oscar making landfall around the same time.

Cuba’s oil-fired power plants have struggled to secure vital oil imports from Venezuela, Russia and Mexico.

Rafael brushed past the Cayman Islands as a Category 1 hurricane before increasing to a much more powerful Category 3 storm off the southwest of Cuba.

The most recent update from the NHC said it had weakened to category 2, with maximum sustained winds of around 105mph (170km) off the northwestern coast of Cuba.

Forecasters have predicted 4 to 8in (10 to 20cm) of rain across parts of western Cuba and up to 12in (30cm) on higher ground, bringing the risk of flash flooding and mudslides.

Rain and strong winds have also affected the Florida Keys.

Forecasters predict Rafael will spin off towards the western Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, although the track remains uncertain.