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The Bank of England has forecast Rachel Reeves’s first budget as chancellor will increase inflation by up to half a percentage point over the next two years, contributing to a slower decline in interest rates than previously thought.

Announcing a widely anticipated 0.25 percentage point cut in the base rate to 4.75%, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) forecast that inflation will return “sustainably” to its target of 2% in the first half of 2027, a year later than at its last meeting.

“Since the MPC’s previous meeting, the market-implied path for the Bank rate in the United Kingdom has shifted up materially,” the MPC said in its minutes.

Interest rate falls – latest updates

The Bank’s quarterly Monetary Policy Report found Ms Reeves’s £70bn package of tax and borrowing measures will place upward pressure on prices, as well as delivering a three-quarter point increase to GDP next year.

Governor Andrew Bailey stressed however that the underlying trend was “continued progress in disinflation”.

The MPC, whose members voted 8-1 in favour of the cut, with the single opponent favouring a hold at 5%, maintained its view that rates will need to fall “gradually” as it monitors the economic response to falling inflation.

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“Inflation is just below our 2% target and we have been able to cut interest rates again today,” said Mr Bailey.

“We need to make sure inflation stays close to target, so we can’t cut interest rates too quickly or by too much. But if the economy evolves as we expect it’s likely that interest rates will continue to fall gradually from here.”

Why will inflation rise?

The Bank forecasts that the upward pressure on prices will begin in the first half of next year, with the addition of VAT to private school fees and the £1 increase in the bus fare cap to £3.

The increase in employer national insurance to 15%, the largest single measure in the budget, is “assumed to have a small upward impact on inflation,” offset by the freeze in fuel duty rates.

Together these will push inflation up by 0.3 percentage points next year, with the near-half point peak coming in 2026 only after the removal of the fuel duty-freeze, a measure the Bank is compelled to assume will happen, despite successive chancellors, including Ms Reeves, maintaining it for 11 years.

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The Bank found that the national insurance increase and the uprating in the national living wage “is likely to increase the overall costs of employment”, and will be passed on by employers through a mix of higher prices, marginal costs and wages, but the balance between those is not yet clear.

“The combined effects of the measures announced in the autumn Budget 2024 are provisionally expected to boost the level of GDP by around three-quarter per cent at their peak in a year’s time, relative to the August projections,” the minutes read.

“The budget is provisionally expected to boost CPI inflation by just under half of a percentage point at the peak, reflecting both the indirect effects of the smaller margin of excess supply and direct impacts from the budget measures.”

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City financier Kolade joins ranks of Channel 4 chair contenders

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City financier Kolade joins ranks of Channel 4 chair contenders

A leading financier and Conservative Party donor is among the contenders vying to chair Channel 4, the state-owned broadcaster.

Sky News has learnt from Whitehall sources that Wol Kolade has been shortlisted to replace Sir Ian Cheshire at the helm of the company.

Mr Kolade, who has donated hundreds of thousands of pounds to Tory coffers, is said by Whitehall insiders to be one of a handful of remaining candidates for the role.

A recommendation from Ofcom, the media regulator, to Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy about its recommendation for the Channel 4 chairmanship is understood to be imminent.

Mr Kolade, who heads the private equity firm Livingbridge, has held non-executive roles including a seat on the board of NHS Improvement.

He declined to comment when contacted by Sky News on Monday.

His candidacy pits him against rivals including Justin King, the former J Sainsbury chief executive, who last week stepped down as chairman of Ovo Energy.

Debbie Wosskow, an existing Channel 4 non-executive director who has applied for the chair role, is also said by government sources to have made it to the shortlist.

Sir Ian stepped down earlier this year after just one term, having presided over a successful attempt to thwart privatisation by the last Tory government.

The Channel 4 chairmanship is currently held on an interim basis by Dawn Airey, the media industry executive who has occupied top jobs at companies including ITV, Channel 5, and Yahoo!.

The race to lead the state-owned broadcaster’s board has acquired additional importance since the resignation of Alex Mahon, its long-serving chief executive.

It has since been reported that Alex Burford, another Channel 4 non-executive director and the boss of Warner Records UK, was interested in replacing Ms Mahon.

Ms Mahon, who was a vocal opponent of Channel 4’s privatisation, is leaving to join Superstruct, a private equity-owned live entertainment company.

The appointment of a new chair is expected to take place by the autumn, with the chosen candidate expected to lead the recruitment of Ms Mahon’s successor.

The Department for Culture, Media and Sport declined to comment on the recruitment process.

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Premier League club Brentford to sell stake at £400m valuation

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Premier League club Brentford to sell stake at £400m valuation

The owner of Brentford Football Club has clinched a deal to sell a minority stake in the Premier League side to new investors at a valuation of roughly £400m.

Sky News has learnt that an agreement that will involve current owner Matthew Benham offloading a chunk of his holding to Gary Lubner – the wealthy businessman who ran Autoglass-owner Belron – is expected to be announced as early as Tuesday.

Matthew Vaughn, the Hollywood film-maker whose credits include Layer Cake and Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels, is also expected to invest in Brentford as part of the deal, The Athletic reported last month.

Further details of the transaction were unclear on Monday night, although one insider speculated that it could ultimately see as much as 25% of the club changing hands.

If confirmed, it would underline the continuing interest from wealthy investors in top-flight English clubs.

FA Cup winners Crystal Palace have seen a minority stake being bought by Woody Johnson, the New York Jets-owner, in the last few weeks, with that deal hastened by the implications of former shareholder John Textor’s simultaneous ownership of a stake in French club Lyon.

Sky News revealed in February 2024 that Mr Benham had hired bankers at Rothschild to market a stake in Brentford.

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Under Mr Benham’s stewardship, it has enjoyed one of the most successful transformations in English football, rising from the lower divisions to the top division in 2021.

It has also moved from its long-standing Griffin Park home to a new stadium near Kew Bridge.

This summer is proving to be one of transition, with manager Thomas Frank joining Tottenham Hotspur and striker Bryan Mbeumo the subject of persistent interest from Manchester United.

Brentford did not respond to a request for comment on Monday night, while a spokesman for Mr Lubner declined to comment.

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Economists say the cost of living crisis is over – here’s why many households disagree

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Economists say the cost of living crisis is over - here's why many households disagree

Talk to economists and they will tell you that the cost of living crisis is over.

They will point towards charts showing that while inflation is still above the Bank of England’s 2% target, it has come down considerably in recent years, and is now “only” hovering between 3% and 4%.

So why does the cost of living still feel like such a pressing issue for so many households? The short answer is because, depending on how you define it, it never ended.

Economists like to focus on the change in prices over the past year, and certainly on that measure inflation is down sharply, from double-digit levels in recent years.

But if you look over the past four years then the rate of change is at its highest since the early 1990s.

But even that understates the complexity of economic circumstances facing households around the country.

For if you want a sense of how current financial conditions really feel in people’s pockets, you really ought to offset inflation against wages, and then also take account of the impact of taxes.

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That is a complex exercise – in part because no two households’ experience is alike.

But recent research from the Resolution Foundation illustrates some of the dynamics going on beneath the surface, and underlines that for many households the cost of living crisis is still very real indeed.

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UK inflation slows to 3.4%

The place to begin here is to recall that perhaps the best measure of economic “feelgood factor” is to subtract inflation and taxes from people’s nominal pay.

You end up with a statistic showing your real household disposable income.

Consider the projected pattern over the coming years. For a household earning £50,000, earnings are expected to increase by 10% between 2024/25 and 2027/28.

Subtract inflation projected over that period and all of a sudden that 10% drops to 2.5%.

Now subtract the real increase in payments of National Insurance and taxes and it’s down to 0.2%.

Now subtract projected council tax increases and all of a sudden what began as a 10% increase is actually a 0.1% decrease.

Read more:
UK economy figures ‘not as bad as they look’, analysts say
More options than ever for savers to beat inflation

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Will we see tax rises in next budget?

Of course, the degree of change in your circumstances can differ depending on all sorts of factors. Some earners (especially those close to tax thresholds, which in this case includes those on £50,000) feel the impact of tax changes more than others.

Pensioners and those who own their homes outright benefit from a comparatively lower increase in housing costs in the coming years than those paying mortgages and (especially) rent.

Nor is everyone’s experience of inflation the same. In general, lower-income households pay considerably more of their earnings on essentials, like housing costs, food and energy. Some of those costs are going up rapidly – indeed, the UK faces higher power costs than any other developed economy.

But the ultimate verdict provides some clear patterns. Pensioners can expect further increases in their take-home pay in the coming years. Those who own their homes outright and with mortgages can likely expect earnings to outpace extra costs. But others are less fortunate. Those who rent their homes privately are projected to see sharp falls in their household income – and children are likely to see further falls in their economic welfare too.

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