Reigniting one of college football’s best rivalries in BYU vs. Utah
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Kyle Bonagura, ESPN Staff Writer
WHEN TOM HOLMOE arrived in Provo to play football in 1978, his understanding of the BYU–Utah rivalry was next to nothing.
He was not then a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, and he grew up in Southern California watching the USC–UCLA rivalry with his brother playing for the Bruins. So when the Cougars’ bus rolled up to Rice Stadium in Salt Lake City his freshman year, Holmoe was curious how the atmosphere would measure up. He was redshirting, and BYU had already clinched the WAC title, but the intensity he felt on the sideline was unlike anything he had ever experienced.
“It was a cold day, but it was hot on the field,” said Holmoe, BYU’s athletic director since 2005.
BYU’s six-game winning streak in the rivalry ended that day, and while the Cougars would still be playing in the first-ever Holiday Bowl — back when reaching a bowl game was a genuine achievement — it was a bitter pill for Holmoe to swallow. He remembered a cartoon in a local newspaper downplaying the bowl bid in light of the rivalry loss.
“It was not a great feeling, and that was my first experience,” Holmoe said.
Holmoe went on to win all four games he participated in — three with Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham as a fellow standout on defense — and over the past four-plus decades has become convinced the “Holy War” is as intense as any game in college football.
“I love college football,” he said. “And I think one of the greatest things about college football is the rivalries. I don’t know where BYU-Utah ranks, I just know it’s one of the great rivalries of all time.”
The first meeting took place in 1896, and for most of its history, it was played as a conference game. After starting their early days in the Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference, the schools moved as a pair to the Skyline Conference (1938), to the WAC (1962) and, finally, to the Mountain West (1999) before the Pac-12 came calling and pried Utah away before the 2011 season, ushering in BYU’s independent era and move to the Big 12 last year.
Those who have taken part in this rivalry over the past 13 years say the lack of conference stakes had no bearing on game day. In fact, Utah’s departure and elevation to Power 5 status introduced a new point of contention between the schools. Still, things were different. They started playing in September instead of November and — for the first time since World War II — took years off.
“I think Utah tried to diminish it a little bit, because now they were in the big leagues and BYU wasn’t, and I think BYU fans felt like they were being dissed a little bit,” said former BYU AD Val Hale, a lifelong BYU fan who is writing a book about the 24 years he spent working in the athletic department. “Utah was trying to say, ‘Oh, this game isn’t that important to us anymore.’ So, I think there was a little bit of offense taken on the part of BYU fans. I think some BYU fans would say that the Utah fans were a little bit snobbish, and were trying to look down their noses at BYU because we weren’t in the Pac-12 like they were.”
Last summer, the future of the rivalry was in jeopardy. Conference realignment has a nasty habit of breaking up rivalries, and while it had already been chipping away at the tradition in Utah, BYU’s move to the Big 12 gave the Cougars less scheduling flexibility and less incentive to schedule a difficult nonconference game.
In a strange twist of fate, however, the Pac-12 collapsing created a domino effect that led to Utah joining the Big 12, reuniting the Utes and Cougars as conference rivals once again. On Saturday (10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN), Utah hosts No. 9 BYU in what could be the most consequential rivalry game for BYU in a generation, as a conference title will result in a berth in the College Football Playoff.
ONE OF THE first things neutral fans might notice from the game is that both teams will wear their home uniforms: Utah in red; BYU in blue.
It stems from Holmoe’s roots in Southern California. For several decades, as UCLA and USC shared the L.A. Memorial Coliseum, they both donned home uniforms. It’s a tradition that went away in 1982 when UCLA started playing home games at the Rose Bowl, but USC coach Pete Carroll brought it back in 2008, despite it being a violation of NCAA rules. The rule changed in 2009, permitting both teams to wear home uniforms, and soon after Holmoe went to his counterpart at Utah, Chris Hill.
“I said, ‘One of the great things about the USC-UCLA rivalry is they play in their home colors for every game. Let’s do it,'” Holmoe said. “And he goes, ‘What do you mean?’ I say, ‘Well, you wear red, we’ll wear blue no matter what the sport is or where the game’s played.’ And so we started this tradition (in 2011), and it’s kind of fun because the color and pageantry of college football comes out.”
For Utah natives like BYU captain Tyler Batty, the game’s importance is ingrained into their consciousness from a young age.
“My earliest memory was probably in elementary school,” Batty said at Big 12 media days this summer. “Just me and a bunch of friends getting together at someone’s house and watching the game. It’s not like you’re really watching that much of the game when you’re 10, 11 years old, but you’re catching on to how competitive it is. It’s pretty legendary.”
Some of the most legendary moments are only tangential to the results.
In 1999, there was an infamous incident in which a BYU fan came over the railing from the stands and attempted to tackle a male Utah cheerleader, who had been running with a flag.
“The cheerleader jumped on top of him and started pummeling him,” Hale said. “Everybody in the stadium — 65,000 people — is watching this. All I could see was someone pummeling someone on the ground. I thought it was an usher.
“So, I went running down the sideline — here’s the AD running down the sideline — and by the time I got down there it had been broken up. I went to talk to the Utah cheerleading coach and he was telling me what happened, and to this day there are still stories out there that I got in a fight with the cheerleader. You know how stories get warped and twisted.”
Another bizarre moment that doesn’t get twisted came in 2012, the year Utah fans rushed the field three times during and after the Utes’ 24-21 upset of then-No. 25 BYU. The first came after fans thought time had expired following an incomplete pass, when there was still 1 second left on the clock. The next came during a 51-yard missed field-goal attempt, which triggered a 15-yard penalty and gave BYU a second, closer field goal try. When that one failed, too, the fans rushed the field for a third time.
UP UNTIL LAVELL Edwards was named the BYU head coach prior to the 1972 season, the rivalry was lopsided in favor of Utah. Then, with Edwards at the helm for the next 29 years, BYU controlled the series.
In 2001, the first year after Edwards retired, BYU took a 10-0 record into the game in Provo and trailed 21-10 with 3:30 to play before Luke Staley, the eventual Doak Walker Award winner, scored two touchdowns in the final minutes as the Cougars sought to become the first nonpower-conference program to reach a BCS bowl. (They would lose three weeks later at Hawai’i and miss the BCS.)
When quarterback Alex Smith signed with Utah a couple of months later, the pendulum swung back in the Utes’ favor. Smith’s introduction into the rivalry was similar to Holmoe’s: He came from Southern California, didn’t know the history and watched the first game, in 2002, from the sideline.
“I think both teams were not very good at that point, but I remember thinking how crazy the game was,” said Smith, who is now an NFL analyst for ESPN. “Sold out and just how intense the game was for both sides.”
When Urban Meyer was named coach at Utah the following year, he turned up the heat on the rivalry, refusing to call BYU by name, referring to them only as the “team down south.”
Come rivalry time, the Utes were 8-2 and needed to beat BYU to win the Mountain West title. The forecast called for a blizzard.
“Just calling it snow wouldn’t do it justice,” Smith said. “It was a complete whiteout blizzard, and our senior running back had gotten hurt, so we were down to a true freshman, I think. I’ll never forget on the sideline, Urban was like, ‘Hey, we’re gonna call your number a bunch. Just hang on to the football.’ I think I had like 24 carries for 40 yards or so, but we won the game 3-0 and it was awesome. Just an ugly, ugly game, but it didn’t matter. What a good drive back to Salt Lake from Provo.”
The shutout compounded the disappointment for BYU, which entered the game having scored in an NCAA-record 361 straight games dating back to 1975 — a streak that has since been passed by Michigan, Florida and TCU.
“It was something we bragged about all the time at the end of every game,” Hale said.
The next year, BYU’s visit to Utah set the stage for one of the best days in Utes history.
“[ESPN’s] ‘College GameDay’ came to Utah for the first time ever. We had a chance to clinch our undefeated season, break the BCS, win our conference and beat BYU all at the same time,” Smith said. “Incredibly special. Sold out crowd again, the whole country is watching, to get the win and the students rush the field and there are sombreros everywhere. Pretty epic win and, again, to do it against BYU made it even sweeter.”
BYU got some measure of revenge two years later with “Beck to Harline,” an iconic finish that saw the Cougars win with an 11-yard touchdown pass from John Beck to Jonny Harline on the final play of the game that became known as the “Answered Prayer.”
Then the Cougars followed that memorable win with another the next year, best remembered for a fourth-and-18 conversion on a pass from Max Hall to Austin Collie, which prompted Collie to deliver a famous line: “Magic happens.”
After Utah moved to the Pac-12 in 2011, BYU had a hard time conjuring that magic again.
“They started to take some of our kids away on the recruiting trail because they were part of a [Power 5] conference,” Holmoe said. “And that was hard on us.”
Utah won the first eight games in the series after leaving the Mountain West, including a 2015 appearance in the Las Vegas Bowl, when the nonconference game was on a two-year hiatus.
BYU ended the losing skid with a 26-17 win in 2021 — when Utah would go on to win the Pac-12 and play in the Rose Bowl — but that was the only meeting in the past four seasons.
Had the Pac-12 remained intact, infrequent matchups likely would have remained the norm. Utah’s move to the Big 12 this summer changed that.
“The state gets wildly excited about that game, and it has been hit and miss the last several years,” Whittingham said. “But now that we’re both in the same conference, and it’s going to be an annual thing. It will be the single biggest sporting event in the state of Utah every year.
WHEN BIG 12 teams gathered in Las Vegas in July, it was Utah that received all the preseason adoration. Utah was selected as the favorite to win the conference, largely in part due to the expected return of quarterback Cam Rising, who led the Utes to Pac-12 titles in 2021 and 2022.
BYU’s Darius Lassiter was complimentary of the Utes at the time, but issued a warning ahead of their arrival to the Big 12.
“I think it’s going to be more of a surprise to them than what they might think,” he said. “… It’s not an easy league at all. There are a lot of good teams here and then we just added three other teams including themselves, so it is not going to be just a walk in the park for them.”
Perhaps he undersold it.
After starting the season 4-0, Utah has dropped its past four and lost Rising to another season-ending injury. The Utes are 1-4 in the Big 12, and their dismal offensive performances led to the departure of offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig. At this point, if the Utes reach bowl eligibility it would be a surprise.
“Certainly the seasons have gone in completely different directions than what was anticipated at the onset,” Whittingham said. “I guess that shows that those preseason rankings and thoughts really don’t mean a whole lot.”
BYU is the inverse example.
The Cougars debuted at No. 9 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday, and while there are compelling arguments for why they should be higher, it’s an enviable position for almost the entire country.
Playing spoiler isn’t what the Utes originally had in mind, but it is a powerful motivator.
“To own the state of Utah, to sour out those guys’ season, it would be big for us and the team,” said Utes running back Jaylon Glover, who also levied an expletive toward BYU in an interview with local reporters this week, for which he issued a follow-up apology on social media.
Just as they were for Holmoe all those years ago, the rivalry burns hot. And while pride has been enough to fuel this rivalry, meaningful stakes are sure to turn up the heat.
The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.
With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.
2024 record: 10-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).
2024 record: 13-1
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN
Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.
2024 record: 6-7
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.
2024 record: 11-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1
Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network
Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC
Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.
2024 record: 12-2
Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.
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Pamela Maldonado
Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.
I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)
Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.
The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)
Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.
The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas
Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.
The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.
The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)
I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.
The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)
The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.
The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas
Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.
The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)
I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.
The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)
This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.
The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)
The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.
The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.
The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)
I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.
The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)
Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.
The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)
This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.
The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)
The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.
The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)
The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.
The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)
With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.
The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)
Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.
The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)
Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.
The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)
I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.
The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)
There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.
The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)
The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.
The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5
The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.
The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)
Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.
The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)
The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.
The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)
Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.
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