Projections from the European climate service indicate that 2024 is on course to become the hottest year on record. With average global temperatures expected to rise over 1.5-degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels. If realised, this increase will mark an important moment, as it will be the first calendar year to breach this critical threshold. Primarily attributed to human-driven climate change, the extreme temperatures are also partially intensified by the El Niño weather pattern, which releases additional heat into the atmosphere. This development comes just days before COP29, the UN climate summit in Azerbaijan, intensifying calls for immediate global climate action.

Experts view this latest data as a warning signal for global leaders. Dr. Liz Bentley, Chief Executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, emphasised the need for urgent measures to curb future warming, highlighting that each annual breach inches the world closer to crossing the 1.5-degree Celsius warming target in the long term. Established by the 2015 Paris Agreement, this target aimed to prevent severe impacts from climate change by limiting temperature increases over a 20-year period. However, Copernicus Climate Change Service data now suggest that 2024 could exceed the previous record of 1.48-degree Celsius, set in 2023, by reaching at least 1.55-degree Celsius.

Influence of El Niño and Lasting Temperature Trends

The El Niño phase, which commenced mid-2023 and concluded in early 2024, contributed to the elevated temperatures observed this year. Despite the end of this warming phase, global temperatures have remained high, with daily records continuously broken. According to climate scientists, such extreme heat has worsened weather-related disasters worldwide, including stronger storms and prolonged heatwaves. Professor Ed Hawkins, a climate scientist from the University of Reading, expressed concern about the long-term implications of this trend, indicating that global warming would likely set new records in future years if emissions continue to rise.

Rising Temperatures and Potential Long-Term Impacts

The high levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to sustain the warming trend. This could possibly lead to another record-breaking year in 2025. Scientists project that without a significant decrease in emissions, global temperatures could rise by more than 3-degree Celsius by the end of this century, exacerbating climate-related disasters.