At the end of the last Trump presidency, the New York Times declared: “The terrible experiment is over – President Donald J Trump: The End.”
That didn’t age well. If Trump 1.0 (2016-2020) was the experiment, then maybe Trump 2.0 (2024-2028) will be the real deal.
In 2016, Donald Trump was a political novice. That was the attraction for those who chose him. He didn’t know how Washington worked, and he didn’t know how to govern. But he learned on the job as he meandered chaotically through that first term.
With Apprentice precision, he fired those who crossed him. They were largely people drawn from the establishment and in the end, that was their downfall.
This time, Trump watchers here in Washington believe he will be more organised. He will know who to hire. They will be loyalists – the people he’s eyed up and got to know over the past eight years.
The first appointment has already come.
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Susie Wiles will be his White House chief of staff. She is the veteran political consultant who ran his winning campaign. In his shadow for many years, she is an astute political operator whose career began as a junior staffer on Ronald Reagan’s election campaign.
She had the Apprentice treatment once – fired by Mr Trump in 2020 in the run-up to that presidential election after a falling out. But he soon saw her value again. He trusts her and she knows precisely how he ticks.
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Mr Trump knows Ms Wiles better than any of the four chiefs of staff he hired during his first term, and crucially she is credited for trying to keep his campaign disciplined. She may be a guardrail in the next White House.
Her appointment is an indication of what his other appointments will look like. They will be people well-known to him or they will be fully signed up surrogates like Elon Musk and Robert F Kennedy Jr.
Expect family members to be signed up too. Last time his daughter Ivanka and her husband Jared Kushner were key figures.
For good or bad, and with little experience, Mr Kushner played a central role in moulding Mr Trump’s Middle East policy which culminated with the historic Abraham Accords.
And so the first difference between Trump 1.0 and 2.0 will be the hires. The second will be the power he has.
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Who will make Team Trump?
The landslide victory and likely control of both Houses of Congress gives Mr Trump a powerful mandate to govern. It also gives him a huge confidence in his conviction to do what he wants to do.
A far-reaching agenda is now much more achievable than it was in his last term. He also has a clearer idea of what he wants to achieve.
His manifesto, which has always been a little opaque and subject to change, is likely to include scrapping the department of education and making education a state, not federal, issue.
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It would include a pledge for “mass deportations” of illegal immigrants, tax cuts, the imposition of tariffs on foreign goods and an overhaul of the mechanics of the federal government.
On that last pledge he hopes to reintroduce a plan, unimplemented in his first term, called Schedule F which would see the removal of thousands of non-partisan federal civil servants and replacing them with loyal political appointees.
Some of his policies would require the approval of Congress, which is easier if the Republicans hold control in both Houses.
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Other policies could be implemented via presidential executive orders.
This privilege gives the American president broad executive and enforcement authority to use their discretion to determine how to enforce the law or manage the resources and staff of the executive branch of government.
A few months ago, I had lunch with a top Trump advisor who told me that if re-elected, Mr Trump would sign a pile of executive orders on inauguration day. Only half joking, the official said the president would take the pile to the inauguration ceremony and sign them there and then. Quite the image.
Above all, governance is about confidence. In 2016, Mr Trump didn’t have that confidence. You could see it was missing on his face when outgoing President Obama welcomed him to the White House for transition talks.
Image: Trump meeting with then-president Barack Obama in the Oval Office after his 2016 win. Pic: Reuters
This time, Mr Trump has supreme confidence because he just pulled off the most remarkable comeback in political history.
Donald Trump has announced he will impose a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union from 1 August.
The tariffs could make everything from French cheese and Italian leather goods to German electronics and Spanish pharmaceuticals more expensive in the US.
Mr Trump has also imposed a 30% tariff on goods from Mexico, according to a post from his Truth Social account.
Announcing the moves in separate letters on the account, the president said the US trade deficit was a national security threat.
In his letter to the EU, he wrote: “We have had years to discuss our trading relationship with The European Union, and we have concluded we must move away from these long-term, large, and persistent, trade Deficits, engendered by your tariff, and non-Tariff, policies, and trade barriers.
“Our relationship has been, unfortunately, far from reciprocal.”
In his letter to Mexico, Mr Trump said he did not think the country had done enough to stop the US from turning into a “narco-trafficking playground”.
The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said today that the EU could adopt “proportionate countermeasures” if the US proceeds with imposing the 30% tariff.
Ms von der Leyen, who heads the EU’s executive arm, said in a statement that the bloc remained ready “to continue working towards an agreement by Aug 1”.
“Few economies in the world match the European Union’s level of openness and adherence to fair trading practices,” she continued.
“We will take all necessary steps to safeguard EU interests, including the adoption of proportionate countermeasures if required.”
Ms von der Leyen has also said imposing tariffs on EU exports would “disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains”.
Meanwhile, Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof said on the X social media platform that Mr Trump’s announcement was “very concerning and not the way forward”.
He added: “The European Commission can count on our full support. As the EU we must remain united and resolute in pursuing an outcome with the United States that is mutually beneficial.”
Mexico’s economy ministry said a bilateral working group aims to reach an alternative to the 30% US tariffs before they are due to take effect.
The country was informed by the US that it would receive a letter about the tariffs, the ministry’s statement said, adding that Mexico was negotiating.
The US imposed a 20% tariff on imported goods from the EU in April but it was later paused and the bloc has since been paying a baseline tariff of 10% on goods it exports to the US.
In May, while the US and EU where holding trade negotiations, Mr Trump threated to impose a 50% tariff on the bloc as talks didn’t progress as he would have liked.
However, he later announced he was delaying the imposition of that tariff while negotiations over a trade deal took place.
As of earlier this week, the EU’s executive commission, which handles trade issues for the bloc’s 27-member nations, said its leaders were still hoping to strike a trade deal with the Trump administration.
Without one, the EU said it was prepared to retaliate with tariffs on hundreds of American products, ranging from beef and auto parts to beer and Boeing airplanes.
Donald Trump has said he plans to hit Canada with a 35% tariff on imported goods, as he warned of a blanket 15 or 20% hike for most other countries.
In a letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, the US president wrote: “I must mention that the flow of Fentanyl is hardly the only challenge we have with Canada, which has many Tariff, and Non-Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers.”
Mr Trump’s tariffs were allegedly an effort to get Canada to crack down on fentanyl smuggling, and the US president has expressed frustration with Canada’s trade deficit with the US.
In a statement Mr Carney said: “Throughout the current trade negotiations with the United States, the Canadian government has steadfastly defended our workers and businesses. We will continue to do so as we work towards the revised deadline of August 1.”
He added: “Canada has made vital progress to stop the scourge of fentanyl in North America. We are committed to continuing to work with the United States to save lives and protect communities in both our countries.”
The higher rates would go into effect on 1 August.
Shortly after Mr Trump unveiled his “Liberation Day” tariffs on 2 April, there was a huge sell-off on the financial markets. The US president later announced a 90-day negotiating period, during which a 10% baseline tariff would be charged on most imported goods.
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“We’re just going to say all of the remaining countries are going to pay, whether it’s 20% or 15%. We’ll work that out now,” he said.
He added: “I think the tariffs have been very well-received. The stock market hit a new high today.”
The US and UK signed a trade deal in June, with the US president calling it “a fair deal for both” and saying it will “produce a lot of jobs, a lot of income”.
Sir Keir Starmer said the document “implements” the deal to cut tariffs on cars and aerospace, adding: “So this is a very good day for both of our countries – a real sign of strength.”
It comes as Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said a new round of talks between Moscow and Washington on bilateral problems could take place before the end of the summer.
A Palestinian activist who was detained for over three months in a US immigration jail after protesting against Israel is suing Donald Trump’s administration for $20m (£15m) in damages.
Lawyers for Mahmoud Khalil have filed a claim against the administration alleging he was falsely imprisoned, maliciously prosecuted and smeared as an antisemite as the government sought to deport him over his role in campus protests.
He described “plain-clothed agents and unmarked cars” taking him “from one place to another, expecting you just to follow orders and shackled all the time”, which he said was “really scary”.
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Mahmoud Khalil reunites with family after release
Mr Khalil said he was not presented with an arrest warrant and wasn’t told where he was being taken.
He said the detention centre he was taken to was “as far from humane as it could be” and “a place where you have no rights whatsoever”.
“You share a dorm with over 70 men with no privacy, with lights on all the time, with really terrible food. You’re basically being dehumanised at every opportunity. It’s a black hole,” he added.
Mr Khalil said he would also accept an official apology from the Trump administration.
The Trump administration celebrated Mr Khalil’s arrest, promising to deport him and others whose protests against Israel it declared were “pro-terrorist, antisemitic, anti-American activity”.
Mr Khalil said after around 36 hours in captivity he was allowed to speak to his wife, who was pregnant at the time.
“These were very scary hours, I did not know what was happening on the outside. I did not know that my wife was safe,” he said.
Mr Khalil said administration officials had made “absolutely absurd allegations” by saying he as involved in antisemitic activities and supporting Hamas.
“They are weaponising antisemitism, weaponising anti-terrorism in order to stifle speech,” he said. “What I was engaged in is simply opposing a genocide, opposing war crimes, opposing Columbia University’s complicity in the war on Gaza.”
A State Department spokesperson said its actions toward Mr Khalil were fully supported by the law.
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Asked about missing the birth of his son while he was in prison, Mr Khalil said: “I don’t think there’s any word that can describe the agony and the sadness that I went through, to be deprived from such a divine moment, from a moment that my wife and I had always dreamed about.”
Meanwhile, the deportation case against Mr Khalil is continuing to wind its way through the immigration court system.