Farage emboldened by Trump’s victory – but whether he can replicate that success remains to be seen

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4 days ago

November 9, 2024

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Fresh from Donald Trump’s victory party at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, it is an emboldened Nigel Farage who meets us at his latest Reform conference in Newport, South Wales.

“What a win!” He chirps, as the cameras are set up.

To be clear: Nigel Farage is not on the brink of becoming the next British prime minister, but there are undoubtedly parallels between the Reform leader and the US president-elect.

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Both men are trying to tap into disillusioned “left behind” voters, both men are cutting through in rural communities and former industry heartlands. There are red MAGA hats on show at the Reform conference on Friday.

But once the cameras are rolling, and I ask about criticism that he is not spending enough time in his constituency of Clacton, Mr Farage’s mood shifts.

He is undeniably testy. “How much time does Keir Starmer spend in his constituency?” he shoots back, when I ask about missed budget votes while he was in the US.

I remind him he is not yet prime minister.

“I have bought a house in Clacton! What more do you want!”

Behind the scenes though, someone close to Mr Farage tells me he is struggling with the balance of being a constituency MP, leading Reform and pre-agreed (paid) commitments in the US.

“I honour the commitments, they were already there” he tells me, “I’ve taken far less on for next year”.

After our interview, a source close to him said: “Nigel has been to Clacton more than 10 times since being elected. Has kept his promise to have a property in the constituency. Writes a weekly column for the Clacton Gazette (10 weeks in a row). And is having two further visits next week.”

Another interesting, and at times uncomfortable, part of the interview is when I ask about Donald Trump’s position on Ukraine.

Mr Farage tells me there need to be “concessions on both sides”.

When I push on whether that means Ukrainians making territorial concessions he tells me: “I’m not playing your silly game.”

He may well be wary of the backlash he faced in the election campaign for suggesting the West “provoked” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by expanding eastwards. He did say the war was “of course” President Putin’s fault.

But in truth it is not Mr Farage’s foreign, but his domestic policy that is what has brought people here on Friday.

The NHS, cost of living and immigration are the issues that come up again and again, and people here think the Reform leader has the answers: “He is just different,” one member says.

The Reform party clearly spots an opportunity in Wales. It won 16.9% of the vote share here, and launched its manifesto (or what it calls its “contract”) in Merthyr Tydfil.

Despite winning no seats, they received a greater share of the vote than the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru.

Mr Farage’s team tell me he could win “20-plus” seats at the Senedd elections in 2026.

The elections for the Welsh parliament are part of Reform’s masterplan, a spring board for more coverage and ultimately more power.

After the interviews he bounces up for his seat and heads out to address the conference rally. The thousand or so members here can’t contain their excitement: for all the warm up acts, they’ve come here for one man.

In the confines of the Newport conference hall, Nigel Farage is preaching to the choir. His base has always been solid, whether he can really replicate something similar to Trump’s success is a very different question.