Farage emboldened by Trump’s victory – but whether he can replicate that success remains to be seen
Fresh from Donald Trump’s victory party at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, it is an emboldened Nigel Farage who meets us at his latest Reform conference in Newport, South Wales.
“What a win!” He chirps, as the cameras are set up.
To be clear: Nigel Farage is not on the brink of becoming the next British prime minister, but there are undoubtedly parallels between the Reform leader and the US president-elect.
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Both men are trying to tap into disillusioned “left behind” voters, both men are cutting through in rural communities and former industry heartlands. There are red MAGA hats on show at the Reform conference on Friday.
But once the cameras are rolling, and I ask about criticism that he is not spending enough time in his constituency of Clacton, Mr Farage’s mood shifts.
He is undeniably testy. “How much time does Keir Starmer spend in his constituency?” he shoots back, when I ask about missed budget votes while he was in the US.
I remind him he is not yet prime minister.
“I have bought a house in Clacton! What more do you want!”
Behind the scenes though, someone close to Mr Farage tells me he is struggling with the balance of being a constituency MP, leading Reform and pre-agreed (paid) commitments in the US.
“I honour the commitments, they were already there” he tells me, “I’ve taken far less on for next year”.
Nigel Farage at the Reform UK Welsh Conference at the Celtic Manor hotel in Newport. Pic: PA
After our interview, a source close to him said: “Nigel has been to Clacton more than 10 times since being elected. Has kept his promise to have a property in the constituency. Writes a weekly column for the Clacton Gazette (10 weeks in a row). And is having two further visits next week.”
Another interesting, and at times uncomfortable, part of the interview is when I ask about Donald Trump’s position on Ukraine.
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Mr Farage tells me there need to be “concessions on both sides”.
When I push on whether that means Ukrainians making territorial concessions he tells me: “I’m not playing your silly game.”
He may well be wary of the backlash he faced in the election campaign for suggesting the West “provoked” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by expanding eastwards. He did say the war was “of course” President Putin’s fault.
But in truth it is not Mr Farage’s foreign, but his domestic policy that is what has brought people here on Friday.
The NHS, cost of living and immigration are the issues that come up again and again, and people here think the Reform leader has the answers: “He is just different,” one member says.
The Reform party clearly spots an opportunity in Wales. It won 16.9% of the vote share here, and launched its manifesto (or what it calls its “contract”) in Merthyr Tydfil.
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Despite winning no seats, they received a greater share of the vote than the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru.
Mr Farage’s team tell me he could win “20-plus” seats at the Senedd elections in 2026.
The elections for the Welsh parliament are part of Reform’s masterplan, a spring board for more coverage and ultimately more power.
After the interviews he bounces up for his seat and heads out to address the conference rally. The thousand or so members here can’t contain their excitement: for all the warm up acts, they’ve come here for one man.
In the confines of the Newport conference hall, Nigel Farage is preaching to the choir. His base has always been solid, whether he can really replicate something similar to Trump’s success is a very different question.
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When Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is just one point behind you in the opinion polls, the last thing you want to be reminded about is Brexit.
If you’re Sir Keir Starmer, that is.
No doubt Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, was trying to be friendly. After all, as Sir Keir said, they share a passion for Arsenal Football Club.
But when Mr Tusk declared at their joint news conference in Warsaw that his dream was “instead of a Brexit, we will have a Breturn”, Sir Keir visibly cringed.
Was it an ambush? Not quite. But it was certainly awkward for the UK prime minister. He stood stiffly and didn’t respond, not once uttering the word “Brexit”.
Mr Tusk, however, has form for bemoaning Brexit. He was, after all, the president of the European Council when the UK voted to leave the EU in 2016.
He might now be in his second spell as Poland’s PM, but his five years at the EU make him the ultimate Brussels insider, who’s never made any attempt to hide his feelings on Brexit.
Prior to the UK referendum, in September 2015, he said Brexit “could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also of western political civilisation in its entirety”.
His most outspoken attack on the UK’s Eurosceptics came in 2019 when the-then prime minister Theresa May was struggling to get a deal. He spoke of “what the special place in hell looks like for those who promoted Brexit“.
Sir Keir also visited Ukraine on his trip to Eastern Europe. Pic: PA
Standing alongside Sir Keir, he revealed that “for obvious reasons” they discussed co-operation between the UK and the EU. He recalled that his emotional reaction to the referendum in 2016 was “I already miss you”.
He went on: “This is not just about emotions and sentiments – I am aware this is a dream of mine, that instead of a Brexit we will have a Breturn.
“Perhaps I’m labouring under an illusion. I’d rather be an optimist and harbour these dreams in my heart – sometimes they come true in politics.”
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A dream? Or a calculated move? As a Brussels insider, was Mr Tusk speaking for the EU as a whole? Was he doing Brussels’ bidding?
He may have returned to lead his homeland, but he remains a key player in Brussels.
On becoming Poland’s PM in 2023, he ended a dispute with Brussels which unlocked billions of frozen EU funds for his country.
He also orchestrated the return of his centre-right ally Ursula von der Leyen as European Commission president.
And Poland has just taken over the rotating presidency of the EU, which means Mr Tusk will be hugely influential once again, chairing meetings and setting agendas.
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Poland is back in the European mainstream. It’s where Mr Tusk would like the UK to be as well.
It’s where, privately, Sir Keir would like the UK to be. It’s just that with Reform UK almost neck and neck with Labour in the polls, he daren’t say so.
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