“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate. It was a historic realignment. Uniting citizens of all backgrounds around a common core of common sense.”
Never knowingly understated, those were some of the words of Donald Trump as he proclaimed victory early on Wednesday morning.
Unlike some of his claims following the 2020 election, much of the statement above is supported by data.
President-elect Trump increased his vote share in 90% of US counties, compared with 2020, and became just the second Republican since 1988 to win the popular vote.
He also increased his vote significantly among many demographic groups which had been least likely to back him in the past.
There’s still counting to do, not least in battleground Arizona, but now the result is clear, where does his victory rank in history, and how much of a mandate does he really have from the American people?
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Kamala Harris would have won if she had persuaded 123,750 people in the right proportions in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan to vote for her instead of Trump.
That sounds like a big number, but it’s less than 0.1% of the 140 million-plus people that cast votes in the election, and less than 1% of the voters in those three key states.
Presidential elections often tend to be even closer than this, however. Trump’s win this year is the clearest one this century that wasn’t achieved by president Barack Obama.
How big were the gains?
Trump made improvements almost everywhere, but he may still end up on fewer total votes than he won last time.
Despite the warnings of what was at stake at this election, it looks like the final number of people to cast a ballot will be lower than in 2020.
The Democrat vote is down around 10 million, while Trump’s vote appears relatively similar to last time, despite a growing population.
In terms of share of the vote, however, he increased his in more counties than any other candidate since at least 2004, and he recorded the highest Republican vote share this century in more than two-thirds of counties across America.
Most of those improvements weren’t by much, however. Just 120 out of the 2,800 counties recorded an improvement of more than five points – the lowest number by a winning president this century other than Joe Biden.
That’s reflected if you look at the number of counties he flipped from being majority Democrat to majority Republican – 95 counties so far. That number was also the lowest this century, other than that achieved by Biden and less than half of what Trump flipped in 2016, perhaps a sign of the recent partisanship in US politics.
What about the type of people backing him?
This tells a similar story.
President-elect Trump gained ground among most voter groups. The biggest increase in support was among Latinos (up from around a third to just under half) and younger voters (up from around a third to two-fifths) who were key to securing his win.
A smaller increase of eight points was enough for him to win majority support among people earning less than $50,000, who had backed every Democrat since Bill Clinton. And crucially, he narrowly took back the suburbs, where American elections are so often won or lost.
Those marginal gains across different groups helped Trump to win the key battlegrounds and go some way to broadening his coalition of voters, making it more representative of the average American.
The youngest voters, oldest voters, lowest-earning voters and Latinos all voted significantly closer to the US average than they have done in other recent elections. So, while they might not necessarily be “for” the president-elect as a whole, they were willing to vote for him.
While black voters and voters who didn’t go to college also moved further towards Trump, these two groups still differ significantly from the average in this election. There also remains a clear education divide with college-educated people much more likely to vote Democrat.
The Democratic decline
While much of the story so far is about a small but united shift in support, there were also some really historic and surprising results, particularly in the big cities.
In New York, Chicago, Detroit and Las Vegas, Trump earned a higher vote share than any other Republican since George HW Bush in 1988.
He still lost overall in the counties that include those cities, but once more it was a story of progress, whether it was down to who turned out or increased support.
But there were previous Democratic strongholds that did turn Republican, including parts of Florida like the formerly true-blue Miami-Dade, which has the second-largest Latino voting age population in America and backed Hillary Clinton by a margin of almost 2:1 in 2016.
Its one million-plus voters backed a Republican for the first time since 1988, and president-elect Trump got the highest Republican vote share there since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide.
He also returned Pinellas to the Republican column and made significant gains in other big population centres like Broward and Palm Beach Counties.
The turnaround of US politics since Trump shook it all up in 2016 means there are now only two counties, out of more than 3,000, that have voted for the winning candidate at every election since 2000.
Those are Blaine County, Montana, an agricultural area up on the Canadian border, and Essex County, a mountainous part of upstate New York, bordering Vermont.
Essex-man was a key part of some of Tony Blair’s big electoral wins at the turn of the millennium. Perhaps a different Essex-man rises again, this time to define America, as it moves towards the next period of its history.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Los Angeles County Fire chief Anthony Marrone estimated that 1,000 homes and businesses have burned in the Palisades fire, the largest of the blazes in the south of the city, alone and that 100 more have been destroyed in the Eaton fire.
A preliminary review from insurance analysts at JP Morgan estimated that losses from the fires could top $10bn (£8.1bn), Sky News’ US partner network NBC News reported.
Here is everything we know about the blazes, in what fire chiefs have called a “tragic” chapter for the city.
Where are the fires, and how big are they?
There are currently five major fires raging across LA.
Here is a list of how big they are and how “contained” they are – referring to what degree the fire department has them under control.
Palisades fire
A bush fire started the blaze in Pacific Palisades, a Los Angeles County neighbourhood east of Malibu, on Tuesday morning.
By Wednesday afternoon, it had grown to more than 15,000 acres, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.
Currently, it is covering at least 17,234 acres and is 0% contained by firefighters.
Eaton fire
The Eaton fire ignited Tuesday night near a canyon in the sprawling national forest lands north of downtown LA and had exploded to more than 10,000 acres by Wednesday, according to the US Forest Service.
Currently, it covers at least 10,600 acres and is 0% contained.
Hurst fire
Also on Tuesday night a fire broke out in Sylmar, a suburban neighbourhood north of San Fernando, after a brush fire.
It quickly grew to 500 acres, and currently covers 855 acres. It is 10% contained.
Lidia fire
The Lidia fire broke out near the community of Acton in a region between the Sierra Pelona and San Gabriel mountains.
Currently, at least 348 acres are affected by the blaze. It is 40% contained.
Sunset fire
The Sunset fire was sparked in the Hollywood Hills of LA, near Runyon Canyon, shortly before 6pm local time on Wednesday, prompting mandatory evacuations.
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0:57
Wildfires burn through Hollywood Hills
The blaze currently covers 43 acres and is 0% contained.
The Woodley fire in Sepulveda Basin was “under control” before it grew beyond 30 acres, while a blaze that engulfed Hollywood’s Studio City has now been extinguished, with no casualties.
Why is this happening in January – and when is wildfire season?
The typical wildfire season in the US usually kicks off mid-year, around May.
Wind speeds of up to 100mph work to spread the flames and coupled with a lack of humidity in the air, and patches of dry vegetation, the ground is much more flammable.
These winds create an “atmospheric blow-dryer” effect that will “dry things out even further”, Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), said.
The longer the extreme wind persists, the drier the vegetation will become, he said.
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2:45
How fast did the wildfires spread?
California governor Gavin Newsom said fire season has become “year-round in the state of California” despite the state not “traditionally” seeing fires at this time of year – apparently alluding to the impact of climate change.
Why are firefighters running out of water?
The demanding nature of the fires has led to reports that fire hydrants across the city have gone dry.
Wildfire attorney Ari Friedman, a partner and trial attorney at the Los Angeles-based law firm Wisner Baum, put this down to the increased demand simply overwhelming the supply.
But, he said, this “doesn’t immediately point to an equipment or water line failure as a lawyer might think of it”.
Mr Friedman added that the Palisades area, the site of the biggest fire, is served by water tanks because of the area’s high elevation.
Which celebrities have been impacted?
Hollywood celebrities are among the thousands of people who have been evacuated, while some have said they have lost their homes completely due to the fires.
The likes of Paris Hilton and actor Billy Crystal both described the anguish of losing the homes they raised their children in, with the socialite saying she was “heartbroken beyond words” to see her Malibu home “burn to the ground on live TV”.
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0:55
Actor tells Sky News of wildfires ‘panic’
Oscar-winning songwriter Diane Warren said she had also lost her home of 30 years in the fires, while The Hills stars Spencer Pratt and Heidi Montag also confirmed they had lost their home in the fires.
American presenter and actress Ricki Lake posted on Instagram to say she had lost her “dream home”, the same place she and her husband got married three years ago.
Sky News’ US correspondent Martha Kelner reported that Tom Hanks, Ben Affleck and Reese Witherspoon were all evacuated as wildfires continued to spread in the Pacific Palisades suburb of LA – an area known to be home to billionaires and A-listers.
The havoc caused by the fires has also led to the cancellation of several key dates in the awards season calendar.
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1:37
Stephanie Pratt: ‘I don’t know if my house is there’
The annual Critics Choice Awards ceremony was due to take place this weekend, but has been postponed by two weeks, to 26 January, “due to the catastrophic fires”, organisers said in a statement.
Production on several television programmes, including America’s Got Talent, Loot, Ted, Suits: LA, Happy’s Place and Hacks, is also at a standstill.
What have Trump and Biden said?
The White House said on Wednesday that President Joe Biden approved a major disaster declaration for California that will clear the way for federal funds and resources to be accessed in recovery efforts.
A statement said the president is “focused on mobilising life-saving and life-sustaining resources across the region,” and that he is “praying for those who lost loved ones, had property damaged, were injured, and for everyone affected by this and other devastating fires in the area”.
He has also cancelled his coming trip to Italy to deal with the wildfires.
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1:13
Trump blames governor for wildfires
Meanwhile, president-elect Donald Trump took aim at California’s governor Mr Newsom, repeating claims that firefighters did not have enough water in their hydrants to tackle the blaze.
“It’s a mistake of the governor, and you can say the administration,” he said on Wednesday evening.
“They don’t have any water. They didn’t have water in the fire hydrants. The governor has not done a good job.”
When will the fire weather end?
The winds that have been fuelling the blazes are beginning to drop, but dangerous conditions are expected to persist through until at least Friday, NBC said.
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Climate scientist Daniel Swain said some of the driest vegetation will come after the strongest winds have died down, warning: “So the reality is that there’s going to be a very long period of high fire risk.”
A warning for high wind remains in place for parts of greater Los Angeles, including the Malibu coast and the Santa Monica Mountains, according to the National Weather Service.
The forecaster suggests wind speeds could reach up to 60 mph.
Red flag warnings – which are issued by the National Weather Service to warn the public and authorities of imminent weather conditions that may result in extreme fire – are also set to remain in place until at least 6pm local time on Friday.
Humidity levels are expected to stay low, and they could dip into single digits in some areas into Friday.
A real-life drama is unfolding just outside Hollywood. Ferocious wildfires have ballooned at an “alarming speed”, in just a matter of hours. Why?
What caused the California wildfires?
There are currently three wildfires torching southern California. The causes of all three are still being investigated.
The majority (85%) of all forest fires across the United States are started by humans, either deliberately or accidentally, according to the US Forest Service.
But there is a difference between what ignites a wildfire and what allows it to spread.
However these fires were sparked, other factors have fuelled them, making them spread quickly and leaving people less time to prepare or flee.
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1:35
LA residents face ‘long and scary night ahead’
What are Santa Ana winds?
So-called Santa Ana winds are extreme, dry winds that are common in LA in colder winter months.
The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection warned strong Santa Ana winds and low humidity are whipping up “extreme wildfire risks”.
Winds have already topped 60mph and could reach 100mph in mountains and foothills – including in areas that have barely had any rain for months.
It has been too windy to launch firefighting aircraft, further hampering efforts to tackle the blazes.
These north-easterly winds blow from the interior of Southern California towards the coast, picking up speed as they squeeze through mountain ranges that border the urban area around the coast.
They blow in the opposite direction to the normal onshore flow that carries moist air from the Pacific Ocean into the area.
The lack of humidity in the air parches vegetation, making it more flammable once a fire is started.
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0:59
Wildfires spread as state of emergency declared
The ‘atmospheric blow-dryer’ effect
The winds create an “atmospheric blow-dryer” effect that will “dry things out even further”, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).
The longer the extreme wind persists, the drier the vegetation will become, he said.
“So some of the strongest winds will be at the beginning of the event, but some of the driest vegetation will actually come at the end, and so the reality is that there’s going to be a very long period of high fire risk.”
What role has climate change played?
California governor Gavin Newsom said fire season has become “year-round in the state of California” despite the state not “traditionally” seeing fires at this time of year – apparently alluding to the impact of climate change.
Scientists will need time to assess the role of climate change in these fires, which could range from drying out the land to actually decreasing wind speeds.
But broadly we know that climate change is increasing the hot, dry weather in the US that parches vegetation, thereby creating the fuel for wildfires – that’s according to scientists at World Weather Attribution.
But human activities, such as forest management and ignition sources, are also important factors that dictate how a fire spreads, WWA said.
Southern California has experienced a particularly hot summer, followed by almost no rain during what should be the wet season, said Professor Alex Hall, also from UCLA.
“And all of this comes on the heels of two very rainy years, which means there is plenty of fuel for potential wildfires.
“These intense winds have the potential to turn a small spark into a conflagration that eats up thousands of acres with alarming speed – a dynamic that is only intensifying with the warmer temperatures of a changing climate.”
The flames from a fire that broke out yesterday evening near a nature reserve in the inland foothills northeast of LA spread so quickly that staff at a care home had to push residents in wheelchairs and hospital beds down the street to a car park.
A billowing cloud of black smoke loomed over the main shopping street with its fancy restaurants and designer shops, threatening to destroy what many here consider to be their slice of paradise.
It is a reminder of the destructive power of this sort of weather.
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1:02
Martha Kelner reports from Pacific Palisades
Reza, a lifelong resident of Pacific Palisades, was evacuating with what belongings he could fit in his SUV.
“This is surreal, this is unbelievable,” he said.
“I’ve lived here all my life but this is like nothing I’ve ever seen before. This is the worst of the worst.
“I’ve never seen it with these winds, we just keep praying that the direction changes. But if the direction changes it’s to the detriment of somebody else, that’s the horrible part about it all.”
January is not normally wildfire season, but these are not ordinary circumstances, the blazes being propelled by the strongest winds in southern California for more than a decade, fuelled by drought conditions.
Authorities are warning that the winds will grow stronger overnight, meaning that conditions will likely worsen before they get better.
Police and the fire department went door to door, urging people to evacuate or risk losing their lives.
On the main road out of town, there was gridlock traffic, with some abandoning their cars to flee on foot.
On Mount Holyoake Avenue, Liz Lerner, an 84-year-old with congestive heart failure, was on her driveway and visibly panicked.
“I don’t drive, and I’m by myself,” she said.
“I have no relatives, I’m 100% alone and I don’t know what to do. My father built this house in 1949, this is my family home and this is the end. I’ve never seen anything like this.”
Around the corner, another man was hosing down his multi-million dollar home in a bid to save his property from the fire bounding towards it from a nearby canyon.
“I can’t decide whether to evacuate or stay and carry on hosing down my house,” he said.
“It’s hard to know which way the flames are heading.”
Other blazes were breaking out across LA with firefighting planes grounded because of winds which are growing stronger by the hour.
More homes, neighbourhoods and lives are under threat from this perfect and petrifying storm.