US election: How big a win was this for Donald Trump?

Published

7 months ago

November 9, 2024

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“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate. It was a historic realignment. Uniting citizens of all backgrounds around a common core of common sense.”

Never knowingly understated, those were some of the words of Donald Trump as he proclaimed victory early on Wednesday morning.

Unlike some of his claims following the 2020 election, much of the statement above is supported by data.

President-elect Trump increased his vote share in 90% of US counties, compared with 2020, and became just the second Republican since 1988 to win the popular vote.

He also increased his vote significantly among many demographic groups which had been least likely to back him in the past.

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There’s still counting to do, not least in battleground Arizona, but now the result is clear, where does his victory rank in history, and how much of a mandate does he really have from the American people?

How big was the win?

Kamala Harris would have won if she had persuaded 123,750 people in the right proportions in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan to vote for her instead of Trump.

That sounds like a big number, but it’s less than 0.1% of the 140 million-plus people that cast votes in the election, and less than 1% of the voters in those three key states.

Presidential elections often tend to be even closer than this, however. Trump’s win this year is the clearest one this century that wasn’t achieved by president Barack Obama.

How big were the gains?

Trump made improvements almost everywhere, but he may still end up on fewer total votes than he won last time.

Despite the warnings of what was at stake at this election, it looks like the final number of people to cast a ballot will be lower than in 2020.

The Democrat vote is down around 10 million, while Trump’s vote appears relatively similar to last time, despite a growing population.

In terms of share of the vote, however, he increased his in more counties than any other candidate since at least 2004, and he recorded the highest Republican vote share this century in more than two-thirds of counties across America.

Most of those improvements weren’t by much, however. Just 120 out of the 2,800 counties recorded an improvement of more than five points – the lowest number by a winning president this century other than Joe Biden.

That’s reflected if you look at the number of counties he flipped from being majority Democrat to majority Republican – 95 counties so far. That number was also the lowest this century, other than that achieved by Biden and less than half of what Trump flipped in 2016, perhaps a sign of the recent partisanship in US politics.

What about the type of people backing him?

This tells a similar story.

President-elect Trump gained ground among most voter groups. The biggest increase in support was among Latinos (up from around a third to just under half) and younger voters (up from around a third to two-fifths) who were key to securing his win.

A smaller increase of eight points was enough for him to win majority support among people earning less than $50,000, who had backed every Democrat since Bill Clinton. And crucially, he narrowly took back the suburbs, where American elections are so often won or lost.

Those marginal gains across different groups helped Trump to win the key battlegrounds and go some way to broadening his coalition of voters, making it more representative of the average American.

The youngest voters, oldest voters, lowest-earning voters and Latinos all voted significantly closer to the US average than they have done in other recent elections. So, while they might not necessarily be “for” the president-elect as a whole, they were willing to vote for him.

While black voters and voters who didn’t go to college also moved further towards Trump, these two groups still differ significantly from the average in this election. There also remains a clear education divide with college-educated people much more likely to vote Democrat.

The Democratic decline

While much of the story so far is about a small but united shift in support, there were also some really historic and surprising results, particularly in the big cities.

In New York, Chicago, Detroit and Las Vegas, Trump earned a higher vote share than any other Republican since George HW Bush in 1988.

He still lost overall in the counties that include those cities, but once more it was a story of progress, whether it was down to who turned out or increased support.

But there were previous Democratic strongholds that did turn Republican, including parts of Florida like the formerly true-blue Miami-Dade, which has the second-largest Latino voting age population in America and backed Hillary Clinton by a margin of almost 2:1 in 2016.

Its one million-plus voters backed a Republican for the first time since 1988, and president-elect Trump got the highest Republican vote share there since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide.

He also returned Pinellas to the Republican column and made significant gains in other big population centres like Broward and Palm Beach Counties.

The turnaround of US politics since Trump shook it all up in 2016 means there are now only two counties, out of more than 3,000, that have voted for the winning candidate at every election since 2000.

Those are Blaine County, Montana, an agricultural area up on the Canadian border, and Essex County, a mountainous part of upstate New York, bordering Vermont.

Essex-man was a key part of some of Tony Blair’s big electoral wins at the turn of the millennium. Perhaps a different Essex-man rises again, this time to define America, as it moves towards the next period of its history.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

US

Downtown LA is a scene of pandemonium and lawlessness

Published

1 day ago

June 9, 2025

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Downtown LA is a scene of pandemonium and lawlessness

A shirtless man waving a Mexican flag stands atop a burning car in the heart of Los Angeles, as another man throws a traffic cone into the flames and some play drums and shout chants in opposition to immigration officials.

In the background, city hall can be glimpsed through a haze of thick black smoke.

The downtown district of one of America’s biggest cities was a scene of pandemonium and lawlessness as protests, which had previously been mainly peaceful, turned ugly.

Critics of Donald Trump said the president’s extraordinary decision to deploy National Guard troops, defying the wishes of the state’s governor, had inflamed tensions and stoked emotions.

The 101 Freeway, the main highway cutting through the downtown area, was also closed down for much of the day as police and protesters faced off, with flash bang devices sending some people scattering.

Bottles and other projectiles were hurled towards police, who responded by using tear gas and rubber bullets.

It was this chaos, his critics say, that Donald Trump wanted to provoke.

Trump’s decision to call in 2,000 National Guard troops, several hundred of whom were on the streets of LA on Sunday, was taken without consultation with the California governor and LA mayor, and marked an extraordinary escalation by the president.

The military arrived on Sunday morning and was ordered to guard federal buildings, after two days of protest against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers.

As part of Trump’s closed border policy, ICE has been ordered to find, detain and deport as many illegal immigrants as possible, and it was these raids that stoked the first signs of protest on Friday into the weekend.

By midday Sunday, the military was surrounded by protesters outside the Metropolitan Detention Centre in downtown LA. It was here that many immigrants had been held before being shipped off to detention facilities.

The walls and floors are covered in expletive-ridden graffiti, reading f*** ICE.

The Los Angeles police soon split the crowd and drove a wedge between the National Guard and the crowd.

California Governor Gavin Newsom has called Donald Trump’s acts those of a “dictator, not a president”.

He’s formally requested that the Trump administration withdraw the National Guard. The White House say the military will remain there until order is restored. Five hundred marines are still on standby.

Los Angeles Police Department police chief Jim McDonnell, asked whether the National Guard was needed, said: “This thing has gotten out of control.”

He said that although the LAPD would not initially have requested assistance from the National Guard, the disorder had caused him to reevaluate his assessment.

Several people were arrested.

Sky News witnessed a young woman, who called herself Gabriella, riding her motorbike at speed towards a line of police officers.

One of the police officers used his arm to push her off the bike. She said she was protesting because her “people were being rounded up.”

Politicians on both sides of the aisle condemned the violence, but some vehemently disagreed about what actions led to the escalation.

US

National Guard to be deployed to LA immigration ‘riots’ – as Trump claims state officials ‘can’t do their jobs’

Published

2 days ago

June 8, 2025

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National Guard to be deployed to LA immigration 'riots' - as Trump claims state officials 'can't do their jobs'

The National Guard will be deployed to Los Angeles after “riots” in response to immigration raids extended into a second day.

California Governor Gavin Newsom confirmed that the Trump administration is deploying “2,000 soldiers” to Los Angeles after local police used tear gas, stun guns, and riot shields to push back immigration protesters on Saturday.

Demonstrations began outside the Los Angeles Federal Building in the downtown area of LA on Friday after officials from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) carried out raids in the area.

On Saturday, several dozen protesters were involved in police standoffs in Paramount, a city south of LA.

Mr Newsom warned in a post on X: “The federal government is sowing chaos so they can have an excuse to escalate. That is not the way any civilized country behaves.”

He described the deployment as “purposefully inflammatory” and claimed it will “only escalate tensions”.

President Donald Trump hit back at Mr Newsom in a post on his social media platform Truth Social on Saturday.

“If Governor Gavin Newscum, of California, and Mayor Karen Bass, of Los Angeles, can’t do their jobs, which everyone knows they can’t, then the Federal Government will step in and solve the problem, RIOTS & LOOTERS, the way it should be solved!!!,” he wrote.

Mr Trump’s defence secretary Pete Hegseth claimed that active duty marines would also be mobilised if “violence continues”.

LA mayor Karen Bass said that amid the recovery from this year’s wildfires, “many in our community are feeling fear” following “recent federal immigration enforcement actions” across LA County.

“We’ve been in direct contact with officials in Washington, D.C., and are working closely with law enforcement to find the best path forward,” she said.

“Everyone has the right to peacefully protest, but let me be clear: violence and destruction are unacceptable, and those responsible will be held accountable.”

Reports the guard would be deployed to LA came earlier on Saturday, from Mr Trump’s border tsar Tom Homan on Fox News.

44 arrested in Friday raids

At least 44 people were arrested on suspicion of immigration violations during raids on Friday, with crowds of around “1,000 rioters” forming around the building before some “assaulted law enforcement officers, slashed tires, and defaced taxpayer-funded property”, according to the Department of Homeland Security.

The raids saw street vendors and day workers rounded up across Home Depots, a clothing factory, and a warehouse, Salas of Chirla (The Coalition for Humane Immigration Rights of Los Angeles) said.

In a statement on Saturday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said “violent mobs” had “attacked ICE officers and federal law enforcement agents carrying out basic deportation operations”.

She described such activity as “essential to halting and reversing the invasion of illegal criminals into the United States”.

Ms Leavitt said Californian politicians were “feckless” and had “completely abdicated their responsibility to protect their citizens”, prompting Mr Trump’s order to send in the guard.

Protests spread to second city

On Saturday, protests spread to the Paramount area, where there is a significant Latino population, after demonstrators spotted ICE employees in a Home Depot car park they appeared to be using as a base.

Law enforcement officers faced off protesters at a road junction at around 5pm where a car had been set on fire earlier in the day.

The roads were pictured strewn with trolleys and rubbish bins set on fire, as gas canisters and fireworks were also set off.

Commenting on Saturday’s protests, the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Office said: “It appeared that federal law enforcement officers were in the area, and that members of the public were gathering to protest.”

Vice President JD Vance claimed that “insurrectionists” were seen “carrying foreign flags” and “attacking immigration enforcement officers” in Paramount.

“One half of America’s political leadership has decided that border enforcement is evil,” he posted on X. “Time to pass President Trump’s beautiful bill and further secure the border.”

The clashes come amid Trump’s nationwide crackdown on illegal migration.

As soon as he was re-elected in January he set a target of arresting 3,000 suspected illegal migrants per day – and promised to lock down the US-Mexico border.

US

Elon Musk post claiming that Donald Trump appears in Epstein files removed from X

Published

3 days ago

June 7, 2025

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Elon Musk post claiming that Donald Trump appears in Epstein files removed from X

Elon Musk’s social media post claiming Donald Trump is in files relating to the disgraced paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein has been removed.

The tech billionaire made the allegation on X as he traded blows with the US president in a dramatic public row.

In the post, which now appears to have been deleted, Musk said: “@realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public.

“Mark this post for the future. The truth will come out.”

He gave no evidence for the claim, which was dismissed by the White House – with the post disappearing from his social media platform by Sunday.

Users clicking on the message – first posted on Thursday – were instead greeted with: “Hmm…this page doesn’t exist. Try searching for something else.”

Epstein killed himself in his jail cell in August 2019 while awaiting trial on charges of sex trafficking minors.

Musk and Mr Trump’s relationship broke down publicly on Thursday, just days after the Tesla and SpaceX chief executive left his role as a special government employee.

In a fiery exchange, Musk posted a series of messages on X criticising the president’s signature tax and spending bill as a “big ugly spending bill”.

President Trump posted on Truth Social, saying Musk had been “wearing thin” and claimed he “asked him to leave” his government position – something Musk denied.

Musk then hit back with his claim about the US president appearing in the Epstein files.

Press secretary Karoline Leavitt dismissed the comment in a statement.

“This is an unfortunate episode from Elon, who is unhappy with the One Big Beautiful Bill because it does not include the policies he wanted,” she said.

“The president is focused on passing this historic piece of legislation and making our country great again.”