US election: How big a win was this for Donald Trump?
“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate. It was a historic realignment. Uniting citizens of all backgrounds around a common core of common sense.”
Never knowingly understated, those were some of the words of Donald Trump as he proclaimed victory early on Wednesday morning.
Unlike some of his claims following the 2020 election, much of the statement above is supported by data.
President-elect Trump increased his vote share in 90% of US counties, compared with 2020, and became just the second Republican since 1988 to win the popular vote.
He also increased his vote significantly among many demographic groups which had been least likely to back him in the past.
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There’s still counting to do, not least in battleground Arizona, but now the result is clear, where does his victory rank in history, and how much of a mandate does he really have from the American people?
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How big was the win?
Kamala Harris would have won if she had persuaded 123,750 people in the right proportions in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan to vote for her instead of Trump.
That sounds like a big number, but it’s less than 0.1% of the 140 million-plus people that cast votes in the election, and less than 1% of the voters in those three key states.
Presidential elections often tend to be even closer than this, however. Trump’s win this year is the clearest one this century that wasn’t achieved by president Barack Obama.
How big were the gains?
Trump made improvements almost everywhere, but he may still end up on fewer total votes than he won last time.
Despite the warnings of what was at stake at this election, it looks like the final number of people to cast a ballot will be lower than in 2020.
The Democrat vote is down around 10 million, while Trump’s vote appears relatively similar to last time, despite a growing population.
In terms of share of the vote, however, he increased his in more counties than any other candidate since at least 2004, and he recorded the highest Republican vote share this century in more than two-thirds of counties across America.
Most of those improvements weren’t by much, however. Just 120 out of the 2,800 counties recorded an improvement of more than five points – the lowest number by a winning president this century other than Joe Biden.
That’s reflected if you look at the number of counties he flipped from being majority Democrat to majority Republican – 95 counties so far. That number was also the lowest this century, other than that achieved by Biden and less than half of what Trump flipped in 2016, perhaps a sign of the recent partisanship in US politics.
What about the type of people backing him?
This tells a similar story.
President-elect Trump gained ground among most voter groups. The biggest increase in support was among Latinos (up from around a third to just under half) and younger voters (up from around a third to two-fifths) who were key to securing his win.
A smaller increase of eight points was enough for him to win majority support among people earning less than $50,000, who had backed every Democrat since Bill Clinton. And crucially, he narrowly took back the suburbs, where American elections are so often won or lost.
Those marginal gains across different groups helped Trump to win the key battlegrounds and go some way to broadening his coalition of voters, making it more representative of the average American.
The youngest voters, oldest voters, lowest-earning voters and Latinos all voted significantly closer to the US average than they have done in other recent elections. So, while they might not necessarily be “for” the president-elect as a whole, they were willing to vote for him.
While black voters and voters who didn’t go to college also moved further towards Trump, these two groups still differ significantly from the average in this election. There also remains a clear education divide with college-educated people much more likely to vote Democrat.
The Democratic decline
While much of the story so far is about a small but united shift in support, there were also some really historic and surprising results, particularly in the big cities.
In New York, Chicago, Detroit and Las Vegas, Trump earned a higher vote share than any other Republican since George HW Bush in 1988.
He still lost overall in the counties that include those cities, but once more it was a story of progress, whether it was down to who turned out or increased support.
But there were previous Democratic strongholds that did turn Republican, including parts of Florida like the formerly true-blue Miami-Dade, which has the second-largest Latino voting age population in America and backed Hillary Clinton by a margin of almost 2:1 in 2016.
Its one million-plus voters backed a Republican for the first time since 1988, and president-elect Trump got the highest Republican vote share there since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide.
He also returned Pinellas to the Republican column and made significant gains in other big population centres like Broward and Palm Beach Counties.
The turnaround of US politics since Trump shook it all up in 2016 means there are now only two counties, out of more than 3,000, that have voted for the winning candidate at every election since 2000.
Those are Blaine County, Montana, an agricultural area up on the Canadian border, and Essex County, a mountainous part of upstate New York, bordering Vermont.
Essex-man was a key part of some of Tony Blair’s big electoral wins at the turn of the millennium. Perhaps a different Essex-man rises again, this time to define America, as it moves towards the next period of its history.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Donald Trump has paused US military aid to Ukraine just days after his row with President Zelenskyy.
A White House official, speaking anonymously, said: “President [Trump] has been clear that he is focused on peace.
“We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution.”
There was no indication about the possible length of the pause, and there’s been no comment so far from Ukraine.
It comes after the astonishing clash between the two leaders – as well as vice president Vance – in the Oval Office on Friday.
Donald Trump‘s berating of Mr Zelenskyy has led to a show of support from European leaders as they try to formulate their own way forward.
The US president attacked the Ukrainian leader again on Monday, telling reporters he should be “more appreciative”.
The tens of billion in US aid has included Patriot air defence systems. Pic: Reuters
Writing on Truth Social, Mr Trump also said Mr Zelenskyy had made “the worst statement that could have been made” after he commented that peace was still “very, very far away”.
“America will not put up with it for much longer!” he posted.
“It is what I was saying, this guy doesn’t want there to be peace as long as he has America’s backing,” the president added.
Mr Zelenskyy then posted on X, saying Ukraine was “working together with America and our European partners and very much hope on US support on the path to peace”.
“Peace is needed as soon as possible,” he said.
Despite the diplomatic crisis, President Trump has said a deal is still possible.
An agreement giving the US access to Ukraine’s rare earth metals was meant to have been signed by the two presidents on Friday.
It was billed as an important step in a future peace deal – and part payback for aid already received.
However, the dramatic falling out has thrown that into jeopardy.
Mr Zelenskyy wants the metals deal to include guarantees on halting Russia should it break the terms of any peace agreement.
However, vice president JD Vance suggested on Monday that the metals pact was the best way to secure a lasting end to the war.
“If you want real security guarantees, if you want to actually ensure that Vladimir Putin does not invade Ukraine
again, the very best security guarantee is to give Americans economic upside in the future of Ukraine,” Mr Vance said.
“That is a way better security guarantee than 20,000 troops from some random country that hasn’t fought a war in 30 or 40 years,” he added.
European and world allies – who met the Ukrainian leader in London at the weekend – have discussed a “coalition of the willing” to deploy peacekeepers and deter further Russian aggression.
The prime minister said Britain was prepared to put “boots on the ground and planes in the air” under the plan – but it’s unclear who else might participate.
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How many countries will back Starmer’s plan?
Read more:
Long-range drones ‘weakening Russia’s combat ability’
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The coalition that could secure peace in Ukraine
Keir Starmer told MPs on Monday that Britain must “lead from the front” on supporting Ukraine and the “security of our continent, the security of our country”.
However, the prime minister believes any international deployment of troops must have a US “backstop” deterrent to be taken seriously by Russia.
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Sky News gets rare access to drone launch
America has given around €64bn of military aid to Ukraine, compared with €62bn from European nations (including Britain).
The overall US total is €114bn and the European one €132bn. This includes humanitarian aid and other financial assistance to keep the country running.
Following the weekend summit, the UK also pledged £1.6bn in finance for Ukraine to buy another 5,000 air defence missiles.
Donald Trump has confirmed 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, taking effect at 5am UK time on Tuesday.
The US president confirmed the tariffs in a speech at the White House – and his announcement sent US stocks down sharply.
The tariffs will be felt heavily by US companies which have factories in Canada and Mexico, such as carmakers.
Mr Trump said: “They’re going to have a tariff. So what they have to do is build their car plants, frankly, and other things in the United States, in which case they have no tariffs.”
There’s “no room left” for a deal that would see the tariffs shelved if fentanyl flowing into the US is curbed by its neighbours, he added.
As of 12:01am Eastern Standard Time (5.01am GMT), Mexico and Canada face tariffs of 25%, with 10% for Canadian energy, the Trump administration confirmed.
And tariffs on Chinese imports will double, raising them from 10% to 20%.
Canada announced it would retaliate immediately, imposing 25% tariffs on US imports worth C$30bn (£16.3bn). It added the tariffs would be extended in 21 days to cover more US goods entering the country if the US did not lift its sanctions against Canada.
China also vowed to retaliate and reiterated its stance that the Trump administration was trying to “shift the blame” and
“bully” Beijing over fentanyl flows.
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What is America’s trade position?
Mr Trump’s speech stoked fears of a trade war in North America and sent financial markets reeling.
Markets the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.4% and 1.76% respectively.
The share prices for automobile companies including General Motors, which has significant truck production in Mexico, Automaker and Ford also fell.
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Consumers in the US could see price hikes within days, an expert has said.
Gustavo Flores-Macias, a public policy professor at Cornell University, New York, said “the automobile sector, in particular, is likely to see considerable negative consequences”.
This is due to supply chains that “crisscross the three countries in the manufacturing process” and ” because of the expected increase in the price of vehicles, which can dampen demand,” he added.
Read more:
The effects of Trump trade tariffs explained
Trump hits out at Zelenskyy again
The Trump administration is gearing up to bring in other tariffs in the coming weeks.
On 2 April, reciprocal tariffs will take on effects on all countries that impose duties on US products.
He is also considering 25% tariffs on goods from the EU “very soon” after claiming the bloc was created to “screw the United States”.
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