US election: How big a win was this for Donald Trump?

Published

4 days ago

November 9, 2024

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“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate. It was a historic realignment. Uniting citizens of all backgrounds around a common core of common sense.”

Never knowingly understated, those were some of the words of Donald Trump as he proclaimed victory early on Wednesday morning.

Unlike some of his claims following the 2020 election, much of the statement above is supported by data.

President-elect Trump increased his vote share in 90% of US counties, compared with 2020, and became just the second Republican since 1988 to win the popular vote.

He also increased his vote significantly among many demographic groups which had been least likely to back him in the past.

Follow latest: Musk ‘joined Trump during call with Ukraine president’

There’s still counting to do, not least in battleground Arizona, but now the result is clear, where does his victory rank in history, and how much of a mandate does he really have from the American people?

How big was the win?

Kamala Harris would have won if she had persuaded 123,750 people in the right proportions in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan to vote for her instead of Trump.

That sounds like a big number, but it’s less than 0.1% of the 140 million-plus people that cast votes in the election, and less than 1% of the voters in those three key states.

Presidential elections often tend to be even closer than this, however. Trump’s win this year is the clearest one this century that wasn’t achieved by president Barack Obama.

How big were the gains?

Trump made improvements almost everywhere, but he may still end up on fewer total votes than he won last time.

Despite the warnings of what was at stake at this election, it looks like the final number of people to cast a ballot will be lower than in 2020.

The Democrat vote is down around 10 million, while Trump’s vote appears relatively similar to last time, despite a growing population.

In terms of share of the vote, however, he increased his in more counties than any other candidate since at least 2004, and he recorded the highest Republican vote share this century in more than two-thirds of counties across America.

Most of those improvements weren’t by much, however. Just 120 out of the 2,800 counties recorded an improvement of more than five points – the lowest number by a winning president this century other than Joe Biden.

That’s reflected if you look at the number of counties he flipped from being majority Democrat to majority Republican – 95 counties so far. That number was also the lowest this century, other than that achieved by Biden and less than half of what Trump flipped in 2016, perhaps a sign of the recent partisanship in US politics.

What about the type of people backing him?

This tells a similar story.

President-elect Trump gained ground among most voter groups. The biggest increase in support was among Latinos (up from around a third to just under half) and younger voters (up from around a third to two-fifths) who were key to securing his win.

A smaller increase of eight points was enough for him to win majority support among people earning less than $50,000, who had backed every Democrat since Bill Clinton. And crucially, he narrowly took back the suburbs, where American elections are so often won or lost.

Those marginal gains across different groups helped Trump to win the key battlegrounds and go some way to broadening his coalition of voters, making it more representative of the average American.

The youngest voters, oldest voters, lowest-earning voters and Latinos all voted significantly closer to the US average than they have done in other recent elections. So, while they might not necessarily be “for” the president-elect as a whole, they were willing to vote for him.

While black voters and voters who didn’t go to college also moved further towards Trump, these two groups still differ significantly from the average in this election. There also remains a clear education divide with college-educated people much more likely to vote Democrat.

The Democratic decline

While much of the story so far is about a small but united shift in support, there were also some really historic and surprising results, particularly in the big cities.

In New York, Chicago, Detroit and Las Vegas, Trump earned a higher vote share than any other Republican since George HW Bush in 1988.

He still lost overall in the counties that include those cities, but once more it was a story of progress, whether it was down to who turned out or increased support.

But there were previous Democratic strongholds that did turn Republican, including parts of Florida like the formerly true-blue Miami-Dade, which has the second-largest Latino voting age population in America and backed Hillary Clinton by a margin of almost 2:1 in 2016.

Its one million-plus voters backed a Republican for the first time since 1988, and president-elect Trump got the highest Republican vote share there since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide.

He also returned Pinellas to the Republican column and made significant gains in other big population centres like Broward and Palm Beach Counties.

The turnaround of US politics since Trump shook it all up in 2016 means there are now only two counties, out of more than 3,000, that have voted for the winning candidate at every election since 2000.

Those are Blaine County, Montana, an agricultural area up on the Canadian border, and Essex County, a mountainous part of upstate New York, bordering Vermont.

Essex-man was a key part of some of Tony Blair’s big electoral wins at the turn of the millennium. Perhaps a different Essex-man rises again, this time to define America, as it moves towards the next period of its history.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

US

Pentagon leaker sentenced to 15 years in jail after sharing military secrets online

Published

3 hours ago

November 12, 2024

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Pentagon leaker sentenced to 15 years in jail after sharing military secrets online

A member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard who leaked classified Pentagon information has been jailed for 15 years.

Jack Teixeira shared documents that contained information about the war in Ukraine on the messaging platform Discord.

The leak exposed information about troop movements in Ukraine, and the provision of supplies and equipment to Kyiv’s soldiers.

He began sharing the documents in 2022, Sky News’ US partner network NBC News reported, and had held top-secret security clearance since the year before.

Teixeira pleaded guilty earlier this year to six counts of wilful retention and transmission of national defence information following his arrest in the most consequential national security case in years.

Wearing an orange jumpsuit, he showed no visible reaction as he was sentenced by US district judge Indira Talwani.

Before being sentenced, he apologised for his actions, saying: “I wanted to say I’m sorry for all the harm that I brought and caused.”

He referenced the “maelstrom” he created and added: “I understand all the responsibility and consequences fall upon my shoulders alone and accept whatever that will bring.”

Afterwards, Teixeira, of North Dighton, Massachusetts, hugged one of his lawyers and looked toward his family and smiled, before being led away.

The security breach raised alarm over America’s ability to protect its most closely guarded secrets and left the Biden administration scrambling to try to contain the fallout.

The leaks were also embarrassing for the Pentagon which tightened controls and disciplined members who failed to take necessary action over the 22-year-old’s suspicious behaviour.

Assistant US attorney Jared Dolan said Teixeira’s sentencing would “be a cautionary tale for the men and women in the US military”.

Teixeira’s own lawyers said that while his actions were criminal, they were never intended to “harm the United States”.

“Instead, his intent was to educate his friends about world events to make certain they were not misled by misinformation,” the lawyers claimed.

Prosecutors in court said he tried to cover his tracks as they found a smashed tablet, laptop and Xbox in a rubbish bin at his house.

Teixeira, who was part of the 102nd Intelligence Wing at Otis Air National Guard Base in Massachusetts, worked as a cyber transport systems specialist – an information technology specialist responsible for military communications networks.

US

Donald Trump to name Marco Rubio as secretary of state – reports

Published

18 hours ago

November 12, 2024

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Donald Trump to name Marco Rubio as secretary of state - reports

Donald Trump is expected to name Florida Senator Marco Rubio as his secretary of state, according to US media reports.

Mr Trump, who will be inaugurated on 20 January 2025, could still change his mind about the appointment, three sources familiar with the selection process have told Sky News’ US partner network NBC News.

The secretary of state serves as the president’s chief foreign affairs adviser and the country’s top diplomat.

The New York Times was the first to report that Mr Trump plans to select Mr Rubio for the position.

During Mr Trump’s first term in the White House between 2017 and 2021, Mr Rubio co-sponsored legislation that would make it harder for the then-president to withdraw from the NATO alliance.

Earlier this year he was one of 15 Republican senators to vote against a $95bn (£74bn) military aid package to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia, which was eventually passed in April.

Mr Rubio, who would be the first Latino to hold the role, was arguably the most hawkish option on Mr Trump’s shortlist for secretary of state.

In the past, the 53-year-old has advocated for muscular foreign policy with respect to the US’ geopolitical rivals, including China, Iran and Cuba.

However, over the last several years he has softened some of his stances to align more closely with Mr Trump’s views.

The president-elect accuses past White House administrations of leading America into costly and futile wars and has pushed for a more restrained foreign policy.

The new administration will confront a world more volatile and dangerous than it was when Mr Trump first took office in 2017, with wars now raging in Ukraine and the Middle East

The Ukraine crisis will be high on Mr Rubio’s agenda.

Mr Rubio has said in recent interviews that Ukraine needs to seek a negotiated settlement with Russia rather than focus on regaining all territory that Russia has taken in the last decade.

“I’m not on Russia’s side – but unfortunately the reality of it is that the way the war in Ukraine is going to end is with a negotiated settlement,” Mr Rubio said in September.

Meanwhile, after it was reported Mr Rubio could be set to become secretary of state, a Trump ally told NBC News: “While Marco is a little more hawkish than the incoming president and vice president, he’s actually not as far away from them as many people might assume at first blush.

“He’s become far more aligned with the president on issues regarding tariffs. He has a similar stand on the China issue, and he even voted against the last round of Ukraine funding.”

Mr Rubio’s selection holds domestic as well as international significance.

Mr Trump beat Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in the 5 November election in part by winning over large numbers of Latinos, who had voted overwhelmingly for Democrats in previous election cycles.

By selecting Mr Rubio for a key policy role, Mr Trump may help consolidate gains among Latinos and make clear that they have a place at the highest levels of his administration.

Mr Rubio also was one of three final contenders for Mr Trump’s vice-presidential pick.

The president-elect ultimately chose US Senator JD Vance of Ohio, a hard-right figure who is known for his isolationist foreign policy positions.

Mr Rubio is not the first Trump administration appointment to be reported following the election.

The incoming president has announced Representative Mike Waltz as his national security adviser, while his presidential campaign manager Susie Wiles will become his chief of staff.

On Sunday, he named immigration hard-liner Tom Homan as his “border czar”.

US

Kremlin denies Trump and Putin call discussing Ukraine – as Biden to urge president-elect ‘not to walk away’ from Kyiv

Published

2 days ago

November 11, 2024

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Kremlin denies Trump and Putin call discussing Ukraine - as Biden to urge president-elect 'not to walk away' from Kyiv

The Kremlin has denied Donald Trump spoke with Vladimir Putin in a phone call the day after the presidential election.

The US president-elect reportedly urged the Russian president not to escalate the war in Ukraine and reminded him of America’s sizeable military presence in Europe during the conversation on Thursday, according to The Washington Post and Reuters, citing sources familiar with the call.

According to several other sources, the pair went on to discuss the goal of peace on the continent, as well as the prospect of a further call soon to look into the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine.

Follow live: Putin has no plans to speak to Trump

But on Monday, the Kremlin denied the reports and spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Mr Putin has no specific plans to speak to Mr Trump at present.

“This is completely untrue. This is pure fiction, it’s just false information,” Mr Peskov said. “There was no conversation.”

Asked if Mr Putin had plans for any contact with Mr Trump, Mr Peskov said: “There are no concrete plans yet.”

On Friday, the Kremlin said Mr Putin was ready to discuss Ukraine with Mr Trump – but that did not mean he was willing to alter Moscow’s demands – namely that Ukraine drops its ambitions to join NATO and surrenders the four territories currently held by Russia.

The Washington Post said two sources indicated the Ukrainian government was informed of the call between Mr Trump and Mr Putin – and did not object to the conversation taking place.

We simply do not know what Trump’s policy on Ukraine will be

If the reports of this call are correct – that Donald Trump urged Vladimir Putin not to escalate the conflict – it’s certainly not the pro-Russia rhetoric Ukraine feared it would be hearing.

But will it ease their concerns about a potential cut to US military aid and being forced into a peace deal? Unlikely.

That’s because, if true, it is contact between the Russian president and the US president-elect.

It will fuel anxiety in Kyiv and other European capitals over how the relationship between the two develops.

They got on well last time, too well in the eyes of many Western officials, and the fear is they will do so again.

The Kremlin has denied the reports of the call, insisting no conversation took place.

But it also said last week that Mr Putin had no plans to congratulate Mr Trump. And then he did.

In fact, he was highly complementary of the president-elect, praising his bravery during the attempt on his life.

The bottom line, I think, is that Moscow, Kyiv, London et al simply don’t know what Mr Trump’s policy on Ukraine will actually be.

Yes, he’s vowed to bring the war to a swift conclusion, but he hasn’t said how he’ll do that or what peace will look like.

So right now, there is a charm offensive going on, from both sides.

Kyiv and its allies, including the UK, are hoping to persuade Mr Trump not to abandon their cause, while Moscow is trying to appeal to his image as a dealmaker, advocating a peace agreement on its terms.

However, Ukraine’s foreign ministry said it was “impossible” that Ukraine would have endorsed such a call and that reports otherwise were “false”.

When asked about the call, Mr Trump’s communications director Steven Cheung said: “We do not comment on private calls between President Trump and other world leaders.”

Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden, who will hand over power on 20 January, will warn Mr Trump and Congress not to abandon Ukraine, according to one of the president’s top officials.

The president-elect and sitting president will meet on Wednesday in the Oval Office, a week after Mr Trump beat Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in the election.

In an interview with CBS News, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said: “President Biden will have the opportunity over the next 70 days to make the case to the Congress and to the incoming administration that the United States should not walk away from Ukraine, that walking away from Ukraine means more instability in Europe.”

Under Mr Biden, Washington has provided tens of billions of dollars of military and economic aid to Ukraine – funding that Mr Trump, and some of his supporters, have repeatedly criticised and rallied against.

Mr Trump insisted last year that Mr Putin never would have invaded Ukraine if he had been in the White House at the time and has repeatedly said he could settle the war “in one day” if he was re-elected again.

On Sunday night, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said strength and diplomacy must work together to bring the two-and-a-half-year war to an end.

“We understand very clearly that diplomacy has no prospects without strength,” he said.

“But without a clear understanding of diplomatic goals, weapons alone will not do the job. That’s why strength and diplomacy must work hand in hand.”

It comes as both Russia and Ukraine launched “record” drone attacks on each other overnight on Saturday, injuring a woman and temporarily halting air traffic at some of Russia’s busiest airports.