US election: How big a win was this for Donald Trump?

Published

7 months ago

November 9, 2024

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“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate. It was a historic realignment. Uniting citizens of all backgrounds around a common core of common sense.”

Never knowingly understated, those were some of the words of Donald Trump as he proclaimed victory early on Wednesday morning.

Unlike some of his claims following the 2020 election, much of the statement above is supported by data.

President-elect Trump increased his vote share in 90% of US counties, compared with 2020, and became just the second Republican since 1988 to win the popular vote.

He also increased his vote significantly among many demographic groups which had been least likely to back him in the past.

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There’s still counting to do, not least in battleground Arizona, but now the result is clear, where does his victory rank in history, and how much of a mandate does he really have from the American people?

How big was the win?

Kamala Harris would have won if she had persuaded 123,750 people in the right proportions in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan to vote for her instead of Trump.

That sounds like a big number, but it’s less than 0.1% of the 140 million-plus people that cast votes in the election, and less than 1% of the voters in those three key states.

Presidential elections often tend to be even closer than this, however. Trump’s win this year is the clearest one this century that wasn’t achieved by president Barack Obama.

How big were the gains?

Trump made improvements almost everywhere, but he may still end up on fewer total votes than he won last time.

Despite the warnings of what was at stake at this election, it looks like the final number of people to cast a ballot will be lower than in 2020.

The Democrat vote is down around 10 million, while Trump’s vote appears relatively similar to last time, despite a growing population.

In terms of share of the vote, however, he increased his in more counties than any other candidate since at least 2004, and he recorded the highest Republican vote share this century in more than two-thirds of counties across America.

Most of those improvements weren’t by much, however. Just 120 out of the 2,800 counties recorded an improvement of more than five points – the lowest number by a winning president this century other than Joe Biden.

That’s reflected if you look at the number of counties he flipped from being majority Democrat to majority Republican – 95 counties so far. That number was also the lowest this century, other than that achieved by Biden and less than half of what Trump flipped in 2016, perhaps a sign of the recent partisanship in US politics.

What about the type of people backing him?

This tells a similar story.

President-elect Trump gained ground among most voter groups. The biggest increase in support was among Latinos (up from around a third to just under half) and younger voters (up from around a third to two-fifths) who were key to securing his win.

A smaller increase of eight points was enough for him to win majority support among people earning less than $50,000, who had backed every Democrat since Bill Clinton. And crucially, he narrowly took back the suburbs, where American elections are so often won or lost.

Those marginal gains across different groups helped Trump to win the key battlegrounds and go some way to broadening his coalition of voters, making it more representative of the average American.

The youngest voters, oldest voters, lowest-earning voters and Latinos all voted significantly closer to the US average than they have done in other recent elections. So, while they might not necessarily be “for” the president-elect as a whole, they were willing to vote for him.

While black voters and voters who didn’t go to college also moved further towards Trump, these two groups still differ significantly from the average in this election. There also remains a clear education divide with college-educated people much more likely to vote Democrat.

The Democratic decline

While much of the story so far is about a small but united shift in support, there were also some really historic and surprising results, particularly in the big cities.

In New York, Chicago, Detroit and Las Vegas, Trump earned a higher vote share than any other Republican since George HW Bush in 1988.

He still lost overall in the counties that include those cities, but once more it was a story of progress, whether it was down to who turned out or increased support.

But there were previous Democratic strongholds that did turn Republican, including parts of Florida like the formerly true-blue Miami-Dade, which has the second-largest Latino voting age population in America and backed Hillary Clinton by a margin of almost 2:1 in 2016.

Its one million-plus voters backed a Republican for the first time since 1988, and president-elect Trump got the highest Republican vote share there since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide.

He also returned Pinellas to the Republican column and made significant gains in other big population centres like Broward and Palm Beach Counties.

The turnaround of US politics since Trump shook it all up in 2016 means there are now only two counties, out of more than 3,000, that have voted for the winning candidate at every election since 2000.

Those are Blaine County, Montana, an agricultural area up on the Canadian border, and Essex County, a mountainous part of upstate New York, bordering Vermont.

Essex-man was a key part of some of Tony Blair’s big electoral wins at the turn of the millennium. Perhaps a different Essex-man rises again, this time to define America, as it moves towards the next period of its history.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

US

Trump’s Iran remarks let him still play ‘good cop’ to Netanyahu’s ‘bad cop’

Published

13 hours ago

June 15, 2025

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Trump's Iran remarks let him still play 'good cop' to Netanyahu's 'bad cop'

Reading between the lines of President Trump’s social media posts is an art, not a science.

But whether by intention or not, there is always insight in his posts. His Truth Social words reacting to the Israeli attack on Iran are intentionally ambiguous.

When was he told by Israel that they would strike Iran? Did he give them a green light, or was it more amber?

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Was his insistence, as recently as 48 hours ago, that a strike would “blow” the chances of a deal with Iran actually just a ruse to afford Israel the element of surprise? That’s what the Israelis are claiming.

Clearly, President Trump does not want to give the impression that his ‘don’t strike’ advice was ignored by Netanyahu.

His social posts are filled with enough ambiguity to allow him to maintain his good cop stance alongside Netanyahu, the bad cop: “I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to ‘just do it’…”

Trump’s ‘art of the deal’, whether it be in real estate or nuclear weapon negotiations, requires unpredictability and ambiguity.

Both of those, as it happens, are useful to hide ineptitude too. The line between diplomatic masterstroke and disastrous diplomacy is thin.

The president is claiming that the Israeli attacks make a deal more, not less, likely because of the pressure Iran will now be under.

Maybe, but many regional watchers are very unconvinced.

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An alternative path to negotiations for Iran would be to go fully down the North Korea route, comforted in the knowledge that China – as a big Iranian oil customer – and Russia – as a weapons customer – will be on side.

Trump may think that the pressure of bombardment will force Iran to heel. But the other pressure the Iranian supreme leader is under is the pressure of survival.

Self-preservation necessitates the Iranian response that we’re now seeing before any prospect of renewed negotiations can come.

The Israelis and the Americans are calculating that Iran and its proxies are now sufficiently degraded, and so the response will be limp and containable.

They might be right in terms of conventional attacks, but asymmetrical operations are another fear – against Israeli targets or more broadly, softer Western targets in the region or beyond.

Step back from the chaos of the past 24 hours. The broader picture here is regime change.

Netanyahu said as much in his Friday speech, calling for an internal uprising. He ignored history – which suggests people tend to rally round their flag – but more than that, that foreign air strikes alone don’t work.

Look at Libya in 1986, Iraq in 1991, or Yugoslavia in 1999.

Netanyahu wants to go further. Will he take out the supreme leader? Trump does not want another full-scale conflict in the Middle East. Of all the things he is accused of being, a hawkish warmonger he is not.

But there are plenty of politicians on Capitol Hill – on both sides of the divide – who support regime change in Iran.

I was at an event in Congress in December organised by Iranian exiled opposition leaders. I was struck by the cross-party support for regime change in one form or another.

Israel this weekend announced that its military had achieved total air superiority from western Iran to the capital Tehran. That’s remarkable.

Could Trump be persuaded to pursue regime change? Peace, eventually, through strength? His motto adapted.

We are at yet another unsettlingly tense moment for the region.

US

Minnesota: US politician shot dead and another wounded – as suspect named

Published

16 hours ago

June 15, 2025

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Minnesota: US politician shot dead and another wounded - as suspect named

A manhunt is under way after a US politician and her husband were shot dead in their home in a “politically motivated assassination” – and another politician and his wife were also shot.

Minnesota state representative Melissa Hortman and her husband were killed at their home, Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, confirmed.

State senator John Hoffman and his wife were also shot in their home but are expected to survive. The senator, according to officials, is in a stable condition after emergency surgery.

Authorities have confirmed that the suspect they are looking for is 57-year-old Vance Boelter – who, in a press conference, was described as a 6ft 1in white male, with brown hair and brown eyes.

Members of the public have been urged not to approach him as he may be armed.

The suspect was reportedly posing as a police officer, and officials said the alleged attacker escaped after an exchange of gunfire.

Both politicians are members of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party.

US President Donald Trump, in a statement, said: “I have been briefed on the terrible shooting that took place in Minnesota, which appears to be a targeted attack against State Lawmakers.

“Our Attorney General, Pam Bondi, and the FBI, are investigating the situation, and they will be prosecuting anyone involved to the fullest extent of the law.

“Such horrific violence will not be tolerated in the United States of America.”

Authorities have urged residents of the Champlin and Brooklyn Park areas to stay in their homes.

In an earlier Facebook post, Mr Walz said: “I’ve been briefed this morning on an ongoing situation involving targeted shootings in Champlin and Brooklyn Park.

“The Minnesota Department of Public Safety and local law enforcement are on the scene. We will share more information soon.”

At a subsequent news conference, Mr Walz said: “We must all, in Minnesota and across the country, stand against all forms of political violence.

“Those responsible for this will be held accountable.”

He has also urged those in Minnesota not to attend political rallies until the suspect is caught.

Police evacuated the Texas State Capitol and grounds in Austin ahead of an anti-Trump protest on Saturday – citing a credible threat to politicians.

Post-mortem examinations will be conducted to determine the extent of their injuries.

However, it is clear that both Ms Hortman and her spouse died from gunshot wounds, Drew Evans, superintendent of the Bureau of Criminal Apprehension, said.

Ms Hortman, a mother of two, was first elected in 2004 – and was the top house Democratic leader in the state legislature. She also served as speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives.

Mr Hoffman, also a Democrat, was first elected in 2012 – and ran a consulting firm called Hoffman Strategic Advisors.

Hakeem Jeffries, House Democratic leader, has described the shootings as “deeply disturbing” on X, adding that “violence is never acceptable”, and that he is “praying hard” for the victims.

Former Arizona representative, Gabby Giffords, described her friend Ms Hortman as a “true public servant”, who “dedicated her life building a better, safer Minnesota”.

Nancy Pelosi, former speaker of the US House of Representatives, said she was “heartbroken” by the news.

She added: “Unfortunately, we know the tragedy of when political violence hits home very well.

“All of us must remember that it’s not only the act of violence, but also the reaction to it, that can normalise it. This climate of politically-motivated violence must end.”

In a tribute, Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin said: “Melissa, Mark, John, and Yvette – these are not just names, and this is not just politics.

“These are people. They’re longtime friends to me and Jenn and so many others in Minnesota. They have children, loved ones, neighbors, and friends.”

Mr Martin added: “Today, we recommit ourselves to fight harder for the values that Melissa and Mark embodied – building a kinder, more just, and loving world. If this murderer thinks we will be silenced, he’s wrong.”

US

Trump and Putin agree Iran-Israel conflict ‘should end’ in hour-long phone call

Published

16 hours ago

June 15, 2025

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Trump and Putin agree Iran-Israel conflict 'should end' in hour-long phone call

US President Donald Trump has revealed details of a one-hour phone call with his Russian counterpart, in which they agreed the conflict between Israel and Iran should end.

Posting on his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump added that he told Vladimir Putin that “his war [in Ukraine] should also end”.

Iran has retaliated following Israel’s attack on its nuclear sites on Friday – which killed senior army officers and nuclear scientists.

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The Iranian response has resulted in at least three people killed and dozens of injuries in Israel, according to medics. Iranian state TV, meanwhile, has reported that 20 children are among the 60 killed in a strike on a Tehran neighbourhood on Saturday.

Iranian missiles were seen entering Israeli airspace on Saturday evening.

Meanwhile, RAF jets and military assets are being sent to the Middle East after Tehran warned the UK and other allies their regional bases would be targeted if they helped defend Israel in the growing conflict between the two heavily armed countries.

In his post, Mr Trump said: “President Putin called this morning to very nicely wish me a Happy Birthday, but to more importantly, talk about Iran, a country he knows very well. We talked at length.

“Much less time was spent talking about Russia/Ukraine, but that will be for next week. He is doing the planned prisoner swaps – large numbers of prisoners are being exchanged, immediately, from both sides.

“The call lasted approximately 1 hour. He feels, as do I, this war in Israel-Iran should end, to which I explained, his war should also end.”

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said President Putin condemned Israel’s military operation in Iran and expressed concerns about the risk of escalation.

During the conversation, the Russian leader briefed President Trump on his recent talks with the leaders of Israel and Iran – reiterating Russia’s hopes to seek mutually acceptable solutions on Iran’s growing nuclear issue.

Meanwhile, the latest round of US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled for Sunday in Muscat will not take place, a senior US administration official has told Sky’s US partner network NBC News.

However, the official said the US is “not shutting the door to future discussions”.

“While there will be no meeting on Sunday, we remain committed to talks and hope the Iranians will come to the table soon,” the official said.