US election: How big a win was this for Donald Trump?

Published

10 months ago

November 9, 2024

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“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate. It was a historic realignment. Uniting citizens of all backgrounds around a common core of common sense.”

Never knowingly understated, those were some of the words of Donald Trump as he proclaimed victory early on Wednesday morning.

Unlike some of his claims following the 2020 election, much of the statement above is supported by data.

President-elect Trump increased his vote share in 90% of US counties, compared with 2020, and became just the second Republican since 1988 to win the popular vote.

He also increased his vote significantly among many demographic groups which had been least likely to back him in the past.

Follow latest: Musk ‘joined Trump during call with Ukraine president’

There’s still counting to do, not least in battleground Arizona, but now the result is clear, where does his victory rank in history, and how much of a mandate does he really have from the American people?

How big was the win?

Kamala Harris would have won if she had persuaded 123,750 people in the right proportions in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan to vote for her instead of Trump.

That sounds like a big number, but it’s less than 0.1% of the 140 million-plus people that cast votes in the election, and less than 1% of the voters in those three key states.

Presidential elections often tend to be even closer than this, however. Trump’s win this year is the clearest one this century that wasn’t achieved by president Barack Obama.

How big were the gains?

Trump made improvements almost everywhere, but he may still end up on fewer total votes than he won last time.

Despite the warnings of what was at stake at this election, it looks like the final number of people to cast a ballot will be lower than in 2020.

The Democrat vote is down around 10 million, while Trump’s vote appears relatively similar to last time, despite a growing population.

In terms of share of the vote, however, he increased his in more counties than any other candidate since at least 2004, and he recorded the highest Republican vote share this century in more than two-thirds of counties across America.

Most of those improvements weren’t by much, however. Just 120 out of the 2,800 counties recorded an improvement of more than five points – the lowest number by a winning president this century other than Joe Biden.

That’s reflected if you look at the number of counties he flipped from being majority Democrat to majority Republican – 95 counties so far. That number was also the lowest this century, other than that achieved by Biden and less than half of what Trump flipped in 2016, perhaps a sign of the recent partisanship in US politics.

What about the type of people backing him?

This tells a similar story.

President-elect Trump gained ground among most voter groups. The biggest increase in support was among Latinos (up from around a third to just under half) and younger voters (up from around a third to two-fifths) who were key to securing his win.

A smaller increase of eight points was enough for him to win majority support among people earning less than $50,000, who had backed every Democrat since Bill Clinton. And crucially, he narrowly took back the suburbs, where American elections are so often won or lost.

Those marginal gains across different groups helped Trump to win the key battlegrounds and go some way to broadening his coalition of voters, making it more representative of the average American.

The youngest voters, oldest voters, lowest-earning voters and Latinos all voted significantly closer to the US average than they have done in other recent elections. So, while they might not necessarily be “for” the president-elect as a whole, they were willing to vote for him.

While black voters and voters who didn’t go to college also moved further towards Trump, these two groups still differ significantly from the average in this election. There also remains a clear education divide with college-educated people much more likely to vote Democrat.

The Democratic decline

While much of the story so far is about a small but united shift in support, there were also some really historic and surprising results, particularly in the big cities.

In New York, Chicago, Detroit and Las Vegas, Trump earned a higher vote share than any other Republican since George HW Bush in 1988.

He still lost overall in the counties that include those cities, but once more it was a story of progress, whether it was down to who turned out or increased support.

But there were previous Democratic strongholds that did turn Republican, including parts of Florida like the formerly true-blue Miami-Dade, which has the second-largest Latino voting age population in America and backed Hillary Clinton by a margin of almost 2:1 in 2016.

Its one million-plus voters backed a Republican for the first time since 1988, and president-elect Trump got the highest Republican vote share there since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide.

He also returned Pinellas to the Republican column and made significant gains in other big population centres like Broward and Palm Beach Counties.

The turnaround of US politics since Trump shook it all up in 2016 means there are now only two counties, out of more than 3,000, that have voted for the winning candidate at every election since 2000.

Those are Blaine County, Montana, an agricultural area up on the Canadian border, and Essex County, a mountainous part of upstate New York, bordering Vermont.

Essex-man was a key part of some of Tony Blair’s big electoral wins at the turn of the millennium. Perhaps a different Essex-man rises again, this time to define America, as it moves towards the next period of its history.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

US

Boy, 8, and girl, 10, killed in US Catholic school shooting named – as father brands attacker ‘a coward’

Published

10 hours ago

August 29, 2025

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Boy, 8, and girl, 10, killed in US Catholic school shooting named - as father brands attacker 'a coward'

The families of two children killed in the US Catholic school shooting have said their “hearts are broken” and branded the attacker a “coward”.

Fletcher Merkel who was eight and 10-year-old Harper Moyski were killed during mass at Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis on Wednesday.

Eighteen other people were injured, including children aged between six and 15 and three adults in their 80s.

Police said Robin Westman, a male born as Robert Westman, opened fire with a rifle through the windows of the school’s church as children sat in pews.

‘Our hearts are broken’

Harper’s parents, Michael Moyski and Jackie Flavin, remembered her as “a bright, joyful, and deeply loved 10-year-old whose laughter, kindness, and spirit touched everyone who knew her”.

“Our hearts are broken not only as parents, but also for Harper’s sister, who adored her big sister and is grieving an unimaginable loss. As a family, we are shattered, and words cannot capture the depth of our pain,” their statement said.

They urged leaders and communities to “take meaningful steps to address gun violence and the mental health crisis in this country.”

“Change is possible, and it is necessary – so that Harper’s story does not become yet another in a long line of tragedies,” the statement added.

‘Fletcher loved his family’

In a statement reported by Sky’s US partner network NBC News, Fletcher’s father Jesse Merkel blamed the “coward” killer for why the boy’s family can’t “hold him, talk to him, play with him, and watch him grow into the wonderful young man he was on the path to becoming”.

He said: “Fletcher loved his family, friends, fishing, cooking, and any sports that he was allowed to play.

“While the hole in our hearts and lives will never be filled, I hope that in time, our family can find healing.”

Mr Merkel also praised “the swift and heroic actions of children and adults alike from inside the church”.

“Without these people and their selfless actions, this could have been a tragedy of many magnitudes more. For these people, I am thankful,” he added.

Mayor calls for assault weapon ban

It comes after Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey called for a statewide and federal ban on assault weapons, a day after the deadly school shooting.

“Thoughts and prayers are not going to cut it. It’s on all of us to see this through,” the mayor said at a news conference. “We need a statewide and a federal ban on assault weapons.

“We need a statewide and a federal ban on high-capacity magazines. There is no reason that someone should be able to reel off 30 shots before they even have to reload.

“We’re not talking about your father’s hunting rifle gear. We’re talking about guns that are built to pierce armour and kill people.”

Meanwhile, Minneapolis police chief Brian O’Hara gave an update on the investigation, saying the suspect had fired 116 rifle rounds into the church.

“It is very clear that this shooter had the intention to terrorise those innocent children,” he added, before saying the killer “fantasised” about the plans of other mass shooting attackers and wanted to “obtain notoriety”.

Thomas Klemond, interim CEO of Minneapolis’s main trauma hospital Hennepin Healthcare, said at an earlier news conference that the hospital was treating nine patients injured in the shooting.

One child at the hospital was in a critical condition, he added.

Children’s Minnesota Hospital also said that three children remain in its care as of Thursday morning.

US

New details released about killer in Catholic school shooting in US

Published

10 hours ago

August 29, 2025

admin

New details released about killer in Catholic school shooting in US

Police have released new details about the killer in the US Catholic school shooting – including that they “idolised” mass murderers and they wanted to “watch children suffer”.

Two children, aged eight and 10, were killed during mass at Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis on Wednesday.

The victims have been named as Fletcher Merkel, 8, and Harper Moyski, 10, – click here to read more

Eighteen other people were injured, including children aged between six and 15 and three adults in their 80s.

Police said Robin Westman, a male born as Robert Westman, opened fire with a rifle through the windows of the school’s church as children sat in pews.

Almost 120 rifle rounds fired, police chief says

In a news conference on Thursday, Minneapolis Police Chief Brian O’Hara said the attacker fired 116 rifle rounds into the church.

“It is very clear that this shooter had the intention to terrorise those innocent children,” he added.

The police chief said the killer “fantasised” about the plans of other mass shooting attackers and wanted to “obtain notoriety”.

When asked about the attacker obtaining the firearms used legally, Mr O’Hara said that they did not have a criminal history or any diagnosed mental health disorders.

While they had potentially concerning social media posts, the police chief added that there was no evidence to suggest that Westman was legally barred from purchasing a firearm.

Suspect ‘wanted to watch children suffer’

Joe Thompson, acting US attorney for Minnesota, also said evidence recovered of the killer’s plans showed “pure indiscriminate hate” and that they “idolised some of the most notorious school shooters and mass murderers in our country’s history”.

“I won’t dignify the shooter’s words by repeating them,” Mr Thompson added. “They are horrific and vile, but in short, the shooter wanted to watch children suffer.”

Earlier, the mayor of Minneapolis called for a statewide and federal ban on assault weapons after the deadly attack, saying “thoughts and prayers are not going to cut it”.

“There is no reason that someone should be able to reel off 30 shots before they even have to reload,” Jacob Frey said.

“We’re not talking about your father’s hunting rifle gear. We’re talking about guns that are built to pierce armour and kill people.”

Thomas Klemond, interim CEO of Minneapolis’s main trauma hospital Hennepin Healthcare, said at a news conference that the hospital was treating nine patients injured in the shooting.

One child at the hospital was in a critical condition, he added.

Children’s Minnesota Hospital also said that three children remain in its care as of Thursday morning.

In a post on Facebook, the hospital said “there are no words to describe the overwhelming pain many are feeling”, adding: “We feel that pain with you.

“To the entire Annunciation community, you have our deepest condolences. During this time of unimaginable grief and loss, we want you to know that we at Children’s Minnesota are with you.

“We will always be here to care for you. And in this moment, we hurt alongside you.”

US

Boy, 8, killed in US Catholic school shooting named – as victim’s father brands attacker ‘a coward’

Published

16 hours ago

August 28, 2025

admin

Boy, 8, killed in US Catholic school shooting named - as victim's father brands attacker 'a coward'

An eight-year-old boy killed in the US Catholic school shooting has been named – as his father branded the attacker a “coward”.

Fletcher Merkel was one of two children killed during mass at Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis on Wednesday.

Eighteen other people were injured, including children aged between six and 15 and three adults in their 80s.

Police said Robin Westman, a male born as Robert Westman, opened fire with a rifle through the windows of the school’s church as children sat in pews.

Dad says ‘Fletcher loved his family’

He added: “Fletcher loved his family, friends, fishing, cooking, and any sports that he was allowed to play.

“While the hole in our hearts and lives will never be filled, I hope that in time, our family can find healing.”

Mr Merkel said he prayed the family of the 10-year-old victim – who has not been identified – would also find peace.

“I’ve heard many stories accounting the swift and heroic actions of children and adults alike from inside the church,” he added.

“Without these people and their selfless actions, this could have been a tragedy of many magnitudes more. For these people, I am thankful.”