A recruitment and retention crisis in the armed forces will grow unless the government exempts military families from paying VAT on private school fees, insiders have warned.
They say a promise to increase an allowance funded by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) that helps to cover the cost of school fees does not go far enough, and that highly experienced personnel – officers and other ranks – will quit if Rachel Reeves does not perform a U-turn.
Such a loss in skills would weaken UK defences at a time of rising threats, the insiders say.
A soldier with a child at boarding school, who asked to remain anonymous, said: “I will have to leave military service, as I will not inflict another school move on my child.”
He said: “On one side, the chancellor wore a poppy during her budget announcement, and then proceeded to deal a damaging blow to members of His Majesty’s Armed Forces by not including a simple exemption.”
Image: Defence Secretary John Healey joins serving military personnel to hand out poppies. Pic: PA
An army spouse, who asked for her identity to be protected because her husband is serving, said: “This is people’s children. This is people’s money in their pocket.”
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She told Sky News: “If there is a nice job offer outside the military… that is going to look way, way more attractive than it did a few months ago. The army is in a recruitment and retention crisis, so why would you do something like this?”
Offering a sense of the scale of the potential impact, the Army Families Federation, an independent charity, said nearly 70% of families that shared evidence with it about the policy said without protection from the full cost of the VAT they would consider quitting the service.
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The mobile nature of military life – with postings around the UK and overseas – often requires service personnel to move every few years, with any children they have forced to relocate with them, transiting in and out of different schools.
To protect against this disruption some parents decide to send their kids to private school – often to board.
More than 2,000 of these personnel – the majority of them in the army – claim money from the MoD to help cover the cost of private school fees.
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The Continuity of Education Allowance (CEA) funds up to 90% of tuition fees but families must pay a minimum of 10%.
Many of those who take this option will have agonised over the affordability of the portion they will still pay, which can amount to tens of thousands of pounds per year.
They will now have to pay more to cover the VAT on this portion of the bill – or else pull their children out of school, a nightmare option, especially for those serving abroad.
In addition, some other military families that do not qualify for the education allowance – which is only allocated under a very strict criteria – still opt to put their children into boarding school to ensure the continuity of their education at a single location.
They will have no protection from any of the VAT burden.
Image: James Cartlidge. Pic: PA
James Cartlidge, the shadow defence secretary, said he has received a lot of messages from impacted families and is urging the government to give them an exemption.
“The emails I’ve had are saying: I’ve got to choose between my child and serving my country,” said Mr Cartlidge, who previously served as a Conservative defence minister.
“The government really needs to respond to this quickly.”
An MoD spokesperson said: “We greatly value the contribution of our serving personnel and we provide the Continuity of Education Allowance to ensure that the need for the mobility of service personnel does not interfere with the education of their children.
“In line with how the allowance normally operates, the MoD will continue to pay up to 90% of private school fees following the VAT changes on 1 January by uprating the current cap rates to take into account any increases in private school fees.”
They demolished most of the “blue wall” at the general election, and now the Lib Dems are eyeing up Labour voters.
Strategists see an opportunity in younger people who, over the course of this parliament, may be priced out of cities and into commuter belt areas as they seek to get on the housing ladder or start a family.
Insiders say the plan is to focus more on the cost of living to shift the party’s appeal beyond the traditional southern heartlands.
“There’s a key opportunity to target people who were 30 at the last election who over the next five years might find themselves moving out of London, to areas like Surrey, Guildford,” a senior party source told Sky News.
“We also need to be better at making a case for a liberal voice in urban areas. We have not told enough of a story on the cost of living.
“We need a liberal voice back in the cities – areas like Liverpool, where there is strong support at a council level that we can use as a base to build on.”
Liverpool is a traditional Labour heartland but in January lost its first local authority by-election there in 27 years to the Lib Dems.
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Carl Cashman, the leader of the Lib Dems on the city council, says it’s a result that shows the potential to make gains in areas where the party came third and fourth at the general election.
Image: Carl Cashman is the leader of the Liverpool Liberal Democrats
“One of the cases I have been making to the national party is that Liverpool should be a number one target.
“We are almost at the end of the road when it comes to the Conservatives, so we need to start looking at areas like Liverpool,” he said, adding that Manchester, Sheffield and Newcastle could also be ripe for the taking.
However, the party faces a challenge of making a case for liberalism against the rising tide of populism.
Sir Ed Davey, the party leader, is trying to position himself as the only politician who is not afraid of holding Reform UK leader Nigel Farage to account.
He has recently unveiled a plan to cut energy bills by changing how renewable projects are paid for and says he will boycott Donald Trump’s state dinner. It is these green, internationalist policies that insiders hope can hoover up support of remaining Tory moderates unhappy with the direction of Kemi Badenoch’s party and progressive voters who think Labour is more of the same.
However, strategists admit it is difficult to cut through on these issues in a changing media landscape, “when you’re either viral or you’re not”.
‘Silly stunts’ here to stay
Farage has no such problem, which Davey has blamed on a national media weighted too heavily in favour of the Reform UK leader, given the size of his party (he has just four MPs compared to the Liberal Democrats’ 72).
But the two parties have very different media strategies. This week, on the same day Farage held a Trump-style press conference to announce his immigration deportation plans, with a Q&A for journalists after, the Liberal Democrat leader went to pick strawberries in Somerset to highlight the plight of farmers facing increased inheritance tax.
Image: Sir Ed Davey takes part in strawberry picking with Tessa Munt, the MP for Wells & Mendip Hills. Pic: PA
Some Lib Dems have questioned whether the “silly stunts” that proved successful during the general election are past their shelf life, but strategists say there will be no fundamental change to that, insisting Sir Ed is the “genuine nice guy” he comes across as and that offers something different.
The Lib Dems ultimately see their strength as lying not in the “airwaves war” but the “ground war” – building support on the doorstep at a local level and then turning that into seats.
“Our strategy is seats, not votes. Theirs is votes, not seats,” said the party source, suggesting Farage’s divisiveness might backfire under a first past the post system where people typically vote against the party they disklike the most.
“The next election won’t be about who is saying the meanest things.”
‘Don’t underestimate us’
There is broad support within the party behind that strategy. Cllr Cashman said a greater use of social media could help attract a younger demographic, along with putting forward “really fundamental, powerful liberal ideas” on issues such as housing.
But he said Davey is “never going to do the controversial things Farage does”.
“The way we reach people, the traditional campaigning, is what makes us strong. Just because we are not always on the airwaves, do not underestimate us.”
Image: Reform UK leader Nigel Farage. Pic: PA
For Liberal Democrat peer and pollster Dr Mark Pack, there are reasons to be confident. On Friday, the party won a local council by-election in Camden, north London – “Sir Keir Starmer’s backyard” – with a swing from Labour to the Lib Dems of 19%.
It is these statistics that the party is far more focused on than national vote share – with Labour’s misfortunes opening an opportunity to strategically target areas where voters are more likely to switch.
“One of the lessons we have learned from the past is that riding high in opinion polls doesn’t translate into seats.
“We are really focused on winning seats with the system in front of us. There is a route to success by concentrating on and expanding on what we have been good at.”
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner should face an ethics inquiry over her tax affairs, the Conservatives have said.
It comes after The Daily Telegraph claimed Ms Rayner, who is also housing secretary, avoided £40,000 in stamp duty on a second home in East Sussex by removing her name from the deeds of another property in Greater Manchester.
Stamp duty is a tax paid in England and Northern Ireland when someone buys a property over a certain price.
The newspaper also claimed Ms Rayner previously suggested the Greater Manchester home remained her primary residence, saving around £2,000 in council tax on her grace and favour home in central London.
Conservative chairman Kevin Hollinrake has written to the independent adviser on ministerial standards, Sir Laurie Magnus, requesting he investigate whether Ms Rayner broke ministerial rules.
In a letter to Sir Laurie, Mr Hollinrake described Ms Rayner’s arrangements as “hypocritical tax avoidance, by a minister who supports higher taxes on family homes, high-value homes and second homes”.
As housing secretary, Ms Rayner is responsible for overseeing council tax and housing policy.
Mr Hollinrake said the statements she had given on her residency were “contradictory”, but conceded she had broken no laws.
A spokesperson for Ms Rayner has said she “paid the correct duty” on the purchase “entirely properly” – and “any suggestion otherwise is entirely without basis”.
A Cabinet Office spokesman added that Ms Rayner “has followed advice on the allocation of her official residence at all times”.