Remembrance Day comes at a time when the UK is not ready for war – and the US is not as reliable as it once was

Published

12 months ago

November 10, 2024

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Britain’s annual Remembrance Day has a special dimension this year because it is the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings.

The speaker of the House of Commons, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, and the Imperial War Museum are arranging for images of the men and women who took part in the Normandy campaign to be projected on the Elizabeth Tower below Big Ben.

Political leaders past and present will be on parade to lay wreaths at the Cenotaph, which commemorates “Our Glorious Dead” from two world wars and other military conflicts. Those assembled see no contradiction in the fact they are all bound to have been involved in cuts to the UK’s defence capabilities.

D-Day, when British and American troops fought on to the beaches to liberate Europe, is the defining moment of the UK’s patriotic pride to this day – which is why it was a big mistake by Rishi Sunak in the summer to duck out early from France and the international commemorations of 6 June 1944.

Ever since then Britain and Europe have nestled in the security umbrella extended by the United States.

The Americans came, belatedly, to the rescue in both world wars and we assume that it would do so again. The North Atlantic Treaty (NATO) is explicit that an attack on one member is an attack on all, and the US is the dominant contributor to NATO in both cash and military might.

There was already fresh uneasiness among British politicians about how safe we really are as tensions grow around the world from Ukraine to the Middle East to China. A recent House of Commons report was entitled “Ready For War?”.

The re-election of Donald Trump and his “America First” priorities have increased those pressures.

Russia’s territorial aggression against Ukraine has brought bloody confrontation between nation states back on to our continent.

Meanwhile, Mr Trump, the US president-elect, has said he feels no obligation to defend European countries who do not spend as much as he thinks they should.

Given the enthusiasm of successive governments to cash a peace dividend by cutting back defence spending, there are real doubts as to whether the UK would be able to defend itself if it came to another war, according to General Sir Roly Walker, who has taken over as the head of UK armed forces.

This summer he set himself the task of readying “to deter or fight a war in three years”.

He is aiming to double the “lethality” of the army in the face of threats from Russia, China, Iran and North Korea which may be separate or co-ordinated.

The recent BRICS summit in Russia and the deployment of North Korean troops to fight with Vladimir Putin’s forces in Ukraine both show their willingness to internationalise local conflicts. George Robertson, the former defence secretary and NATO general secretary heading a defence review for the government, has also identified the threat from this “deadly quartet”.

General Walker says he can increase lethality within existing spending by smarter use of technology such as drones and AI.

The problem is that this will still require diverting resources from existing capabilities, when deployable fighting manpower is already at its lowest for 200 years.

British politicians are increasingly aware of the need to strengthen capability and a number of overlapping inquiries are under way.

But given the overall pressures on the national budget, they have been reluctant to focus on the full financial implications.

At Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday, the new leader of the opposition Kemi Badenoch challenged Sir Kier Starmer to say when the UK will spend 2.5% of GDP on defence; he retorted that it remains an unspecified commitment but that the last Labour government was the last to spend as much. From Mr Cameron to Mr Sunak, the Conservatives never did.

This sparring ignores the reality that for effective security, spending will need to rocket to 3% and beyond, and that Mr Trump may well be the one making that demand.

The US spends 3.5% of its national wealth – matching 68% of the defence spending of all the other members on its own.

They have not all yet hit the official NATO target of 2%, designed in part to “Trump proof” the alliance against the possibility of an American pullout.

The US currently has 100,000 troops based in Europe, increased by 20,000 since Mr Putin’s attack in 2022.

The next Trump administration will certainly want to reduce that number. But a slow reduction of the US commitment is happening in any case.

This week, Professor Malcom Chalmers told MPs on the Defence Select Committee: “The most plausible planning assumption for the UK right now is that America will provide a progressively smaller proportion of NATO’s overall capability and we are going to have to fill those gaps.”

Given the likelihood that Mr Trump’s proposed new tariffs will slow the global economy, Sir Keir and the Labour government will have even less to spend on public services than it is proposing. It seems inconceivable that the UK would willingly go beyond 2.5%, whatever the current defence review says is necessary for the defence of the realm.

Just in current defence spending, John Healey, the new defence secretary, claimed he had inherited a £17bn “black hole” of unfunded planned spending from the Conservatives.

Ukraine is likely to be the first flashpoint.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s supporters want the US to increase its military aid when the US wants Europe to take more of the burden of defending itself as the US “pivots” to the greater threat it sees to itself from China.

Mr Trump has said he plans to end the Ukraine conflict in 24 hours.

In essence, Mr Putin would keep some of his territorial claims in Donbas and NATO would not extend its security guarantee to what remains of an independent Ukraine.

Mr Trump has already said that NATO’s longstanding and vague offer of eventual membership was “a mistake”.

Anxious not to alienate the US further and hard-pressed financially, some leading European nations including Germany appear ready to go along with such a sell-out.

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A number of security experts, including former acting deputy prime minister Sir David Lidington, say this deal would be “Donald Trump’s Munich”.

This is a reference to the “peace in our time” deal agreed by prime minister Neville Chamberlain with Adolf Hitler, which failed to halt further aggression by Nazi Germany before the Second World War.

Then, as previously with the First World War, “America First” instincts were to leave the Europeans to sort out their own mess. But American forces ended up shedding their blood decisively in both conflicts.

Once again, the UK and Europe are not ready for war, and relying on an increasingly unreliable US. The politicians, prime ministers and generals gathering at the Cenotaph to honour the war dead should have much on their minds.

Politics

Labour dealt historic loss in Caerphilly by-election – as Plaid Cymru win seat

Published

2 hours ago

October 24, 2025

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Labour dealt historic loss in Caerphilly by-election - as Plaid Cymru win seat

Plaid Cymru have won the by-election in the Senedd seat of Caerphilly for the first time.

The Welsh nationalist party secured 15,960 votes – and candidate Lindsay Whittle cried as the result was announced.

Mr Whittle is 72 years old and had stood as a Plaid candidate 13 times since 1983. He will now hold the seat until the Senedd elections next year.

This by-election was widely regarded as a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, and the result marks a considerable blow for Nigel Farage.

Analysis: Reform candidate looked neglected and dejected

Jon Craig

Chief political correspondent

@joncraig

In a by-election in the birthplace of the comedian Tommy Cooper, it was Plaid Cymru that had the last laugh.

During the campaign, Nigel Farage and Reform UK’s candidate Llyr Powell had posed for photos in front of the statue of the legendary comic in Caerphilly.

But when the result was declared at 2.10am at the count in the town’s leisure centre, Mr Farage – who’d been campaigning for Mr Powell on polling day – was nowhere to be seen.

In fact, the joke among Plaid supporters at the count was that long before the declaration Mr Farage was halfway down the M4 on his way back to London.

Read Jon’s full analysis here.

His candidate Llyr Powell received 12,113 votes – denying a victory that would have strengthened claims that Reform can convert a large lead in opinion polls into election wins.

Nonetheless, the party’s performance is a marked improvement on 2021, when it received just 495 votes.

More than anything, the result is a humiliating and historic defeat for Labour, who had held Caerphilly at every Senedd election since it was created in 1999 – as well as the Westminster seat for over a century.

Its candidate Richard Tunnicliffe secured 3,713 votes and finished in third place, with Welsh Labour describing it as a “by-election in the toughest of circumstances, and in the midst of difficult headwinds nationally”.

Turnout overall stood at 50.43% – considerably higher than during the last ballot back in 2021.

Giving his acceptance speech after the result was confirmed, Mr Whittle described how he had been “absolutely heartened” by how many young people were involved in the by-election – and said the result sends a clear message.

He said: “Listen now Cardiff and listen Westminster – this is Caerphilly and Wales telling you we want a better deal for every corner of Wales. The big parties need to sit up and take notice.

“Wales, we are at the dawn of new leadership, we are at the dawn of a new beginning – and I look forward to playing my part for a new Wales, and in particular, for the people of the Caerphilly constituency. I thank you with all my heart.”

Mr Whittle quipped Plaid’s victory “was better than scoring the winning try for Wales in the Rugby World Cup”.

And looking ahead to the next year’s elections, he added: “[This] result shows what’s possible when people come together to back practical solutions and protect what matters most.

“We’ve beaten billionaire-backed Reform and, with the same determination, we can do it again in May 2026. Caerphilly has shown the way – now Wales must follow.”

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth told Sky News his party’s victory is the “start of a reset of politics in Wales”.

He said Plaid’s goal is to take over the Senedd for the first time in May next year.

“I want to see that through now. I’ve made it clear, said it in my conference speech a couple of weeks ago, we have to replace Labour,” he said.

“And it’s not just for its own sake, it’s so we get better outcomes for Wales. That’s what Plaid Cymru’s always about.”

Labour minister labels result ‘disappointing’

Cabinet Office minister Nick Thomas-Symonds told Sky News that “frustrations” with the “pace of change” led to Labour’s loss.

“I’m not shying away from, how disappointing the result is,” he said.

“What I found on the doorsteps was a real desire for more change, a frustration about the pace of change. That was coming through to me very strongly when I was speaking to people, I think that’s been reflected in the result.”

Labour’s deputy first minister in the Senedd, Huw Irranca-Davies, said the prime minister must “get back to bread and butter things” such as the cost of living, instead of focussing on immigration.

“We’ve got to get better,” he said.

“If it turns out as we think, as the polls have shown tonight, after a really good campaign with a really good Labour candidate in Richard, then we’ve got to talk about how do we get back to bread and butter things: cost of living, the state of the local community, the high street, the green spaces, the money in people’s pockets.

“And that’s a task for both Welsh Labour and UK Labour as well.”

First Minister Eluned Morgan congratulated Mr Whittle on his return to the Senedd and said: “We take our share of the responsibility for this result. We are listening, we are learning the lessons, and we will be come back stronger.”

Reform’s chair David Bull suggested the party’s strong performance in the polls cost them the by-election to Plaid Cymru.

“I actually think the problem for us was the MRP poll, which was released two or three days ago,” he told Sky News.

“It showed us on 42%, Plaid on 38%, and it changed some people’s minds. I’ve heard tales from Lib Dem supporters, even Tories, actually voting tactically for Plaid to keep us out.”

Nigel Farage added that Reform’s candidate lost to “a party that people know well and to a popular local politician”.

“The Senedd elections next year are a two-horse race between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru,” he said.

The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats were among the parties that lost their deposits.