There have now been five consecutive nights of ongoing violence and disorder on the streets of Northern Ireland, with Ballymena at the focus of the unrest following a serious sexual assault on a teenage girl in the town on 7 June.

Two 14-year-old boys were arrested and charged after the incident, and police in Northern Ireland said the pair used a Romanian interpreter to plead not guilty in court.

After that, calls for “peaceful protest” from the victim’s father were amplified online. Those protests took on an anti-immigration angle and erupted into riots and clashes with police.

Analysis of social media messaging has shown there were already rising tensions in the town before the latest incident, following a decade of rapid demographic change.

Before the protests

On 30 May, eight days before the 7 June incident in the Clonavon Terrace area that triggered this week’s violence, police released a statement regarding a different sexual assault in Ballymena, this time of a 13-year-old girl.

The offence was alleged to have taken place on a public footpath near the Ballykeel housing estates, during daylight hours on Saturday 24 May.

Local media at the time reported the suspect as having “dark-coloured skin, dark brown eyes, and speaking in a foreign language”.

On 31 May, a far-right news aggregator on messaging platform Telegram was already sharing information related to this incident, saying “Ballymena said to be at boiling point”.

But the online chatter remained relatively contained until after the police announcement on the evening of Sunday 8 June, that they had arrested the two 14-year-olds charged with the Clonavon Terrace incident.

Analysis of posts on X, formerly known as Twitter, shows that there were 114 mentions of Ballymena per day from 3-7 June.

It was mentioned 142 times on 8 June, then surged up to 10,300 on 9 June and 78,300 the following day. The majority of posts originated outside of Northern Ireland.

Rapid demographic change

The descriptions of the alleged perpetrators of the two incidents have contributed to the anti-immigrant sentiment of the violence.

Sky News has seen Union flags and signs saying “British household” or “Locals live here” left outside homes of people keen to avoid being targeted, and has also spoken to Bulgarian nationals in Ballymena who say that they are “terrified” and “scared to get out of the house”.

Speaking in the House of Commons, Jim Allister, MP for North Antrim, which includes Ballymena, said he was “appalled” by the violence. “However”, he said, “the government must be aware of underlying tensions produced by uncontrolled and often undocumented immigration.

“None of that excuses violence, but it is a matter of concern to many.”

Analysis of census data shows there has been rapid demographic change in the town since 2011. No other part of Northern Ireland has seen a bigger increase in people who don’t speak English/Irish as a first language.

At the time of the 2021 census, three in 10 residents of central Ballymena said their first language was something other than English or Irish.

One in eight listed Romanian, with a similar number listing other Eastern European languages like Bulgarian, Polish and Slovak.

That figure is almost seven times higher than the average across Northern Ireland, and amounts to a trebling over the course of the decade.

Almost three-quarters of the total foreign-born population of central Ballymena arrived in the country since 2011.

The average is significantly lower for Northern Ireland as a whole, and England and Wales, where the rate of change has been more gradual.

Of 621 primary schools in Northern Ireland where data is available, Ballymena Primary and Harryville Primary, both in central Ballymena, had the 7th and 8th highest share of “newcomer pupils”.

“Newcomer” is the term used by the Northern Irish Department for Education to refer to pupils who don’t have satisfactory language skills to participate fully in the school curriculum.

How, and when, will the violence end?

Sky’s Connor Gillies, who has been in Ballymena reporting on the violence and talking to locals for the past few days, said on Wednesday that “the talk here is that this unrest is only just beginning,” adding that “it could go on for weeks”.

Meanwhile, locals have expressed that they don’t like the talk from police and politicians that taking to the streets following an alleged sex attack on a teenage girl equates to them being “racist thugs”.

Police have responded to rioters’ petrol bombs and bricks with rubber bullets and water cannon onslaughts of their own. There have been tens of arrests, as well as injuries to more than 50 police officers since Monday evening.

Violence and disorder in Ballymena raged across Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, appearing to have largely abated in the town by Thursday. However, the unrest has spread to other areas including Larne, Coleraine, Portadown and Belfast.

A senior police officer insisted to Sky News that he did have “a grip” on the unravelling situation when questioned by Sky News, but officers from Scotland, Wales and England have been sent to bolster the forces of their Northern Irish colleagues.

Anti-migrant rhetoric

From 7-12 June, 39,000 Ballymena-related posts on X mentioned “migrants”, with around 95% of them deemed to be negative by social media analysis tool Talkwalker.

Well-known far-right activist Tommy Robinson, who thanked X-owner Elon Musk for his support when he was released from prison four months early on 27 May, was the most influential poster.

His 14 X posts about Ballymena between 7-12 June reached an average of 1.3 million accounts each.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

Members of the Royal Family will wear black armbands “as a mark of respect” to those involved in the Air India crash at tomorrow’s Trooping the Colour parade.

There will also be a minute’s silence at the event following Thursday’s crash in the city of Ahmedabad, western India.

Following the crash, which killed at least 241 people, the King asked for some amendments to be made to his traditional birthday parade on Saturday.

A palace spokesperson said Charles wanted the alterations “as a mark of respect for the lives lost, the families in mourning and all the communities affected by this awful tragedy”.

The minute’s silence will be held after the King inspects the guard on Horse Guards Parade. It will be signalled in the traditional way by a Last Post and Reveille.

Charles and the senior royals riding in the ceremony will wear black armbands, as will postilions, coachmen and coachwomen from the Royal Mews.

They will not be worn by family members who are wearing civilian clothes.

The King said he and the Queen were “desperately shocked by the terrible events in Ahmedabad” after the crash on Thursday.

A statement from Buckingham Palace continued: “Our special prayers and deepest possible sympathy are with the families and friends of all those affected by this appallingly tragic incident across so many nations, as they await news of their loved ones.

“I would like to pay a particular tribute to the heroic efforts of the emergency services and all those providing help and support at this most heartbreaking and traumatic time.”

Union flags have today been flown at half-mast on all royal residences and government buildings.

Alterations have been made to the Trooping event before.

In 2017, Queen Elizabeth requested a minute’s silence to be held during the parade as a mark of respect to those who died in the Grenfell Tower fire three days earlier.

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This year, the Coldstream Guards will Troop their Colour and display their banner flag as they mark their 375th anniversary.

A decade later, in 1660, the regiment marched down from Berwick to help restore the monarchy, dissolve Parliament and bring King Charles II back to the throne.

More than 1,000 soldiers and 200 horses from the Household Division will be involved in the spectacular display, with members of the Royal Family also taking part on horseback or travelling along the Mall in carriages.

Last year, the King joined Camilla in a carriage, rather than riding, after being diagnosed with cancer months earlier in February.

It’s been reported he will do the same this year, but this has not been confirmed by the palace.

The event will finish with the traditional balcony moment, as members of the Royal Family gather to watch a flypast of military aircraft, including The Red Arrows.

David Beckham has called it “truly humbling” and an “emotional moment” to be made a knight in the King’s Birthday Honours.

The former England captain receives the honour alongside The Who frontman Roger Daltrey and Oscar-winning actor Gary Oldman.

Singer and actress Elaine Paige, novelist Pat Baker, and former defence secretary Penny Mordaunt have been awarded damehoods.

Meanwhile, Strictly Come Dancing hosts Tess Daley and Claudia Winkleman, as well as darts stars Luke Littler and Luke Humphries, will all get MBEs.

Beckham was made an OBE in 2003, but now finally becomes Sir David after being in the running for many years. He gets the honour for his services to sport and charity.

Sir David was said to be close to a knighthood in 2014, but reportedly lost out after HM Customs and Revenue flagged his involvement in an alleged tax avoidance scheme.

“Growing up in east London with parents and grandparents who were so patriotic and proud to be British, I never could have imagined I would receive such a truly humbling honour,” he told PA news agency.

“To have played for and captained my country was the greatest privilege of my career, and literally a boyhood dream come true,” added the former Manchester United and Real Madrid star.

Sir David, who recently turned 50, was seen chatting to the King the day before his honour was announced as part of his role as an ambassador for the monarch’s foundation.

He said he’d been fortunate to “represent Britain around the world and work with incredible organisations that are supporting communities in need and inspiring the next generation”.

Sir David added: “I’m so lucky to be able to do the work that I do and I’m grateful to be recognised for work that gives me so much fulfilment.

“It will take a little while for the news to sink in but I’m immensely proud and it’s such an emotional moment for me to share with my family.”

On the music front, The Who’s singer got a knighthood at age 81.

Sir Roger – known for hits such as My Generation and Pinball Wizard – led the Teenage Cancer Trust at Royal Albert Hall concert series for more than two decades.

“It’s kind of weird, but I am deeply honoured to get this, especially for the charity for the Teenage Cancer Trust, and I accept it on their behalf really, because this honour is really for all unsung heroes,” said Sir Roger.

“It’s a dream come true for me, but it’s especially a dream because the charity means so much.”

TV presenter Tess Daly called her MBE “the greatest surprise of my life”.

“I don’t think I’ve come back down to earth yet,” she told PA. “I didn’t see it coming, and it almost didn’t happen because the letter went to the wrong address.

“And thank goodness someone very kind found me. And so by the time I got it, I only had, I think it was two or three days left to accept it.”

Her co-star on Strictly, Claudia Winkleman, said she was “incredibly grateful” to be recognised.

“I will buy a hat and am taking my mum [to receive the honour]. I am ridiculously lucky and will celebrate with Tess by doing a paso doble,” she said.

West End legend Elaine Page – who has starred in shows such as Cats and Evita – was also honoured for services to music and charity.

The singer said she was in “shock” at becoming a dame

“I’ve got all these different emotions coming at me all at once,” said the 77-year-old. I’m proud and I feel grateful and I’m thrilled and surprised, and so it’s been quite a lot to take in.”

Dame Elaine has roles at two charities – The Children’s Trust and The Dan Maskell Tennis Trust, which supports disabled tennis players.

She’s also presented a BBC radio show for more than 20 years.

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More than 1,200 people from across the country were given honours in the latest list, including Sky Group chief executive Dana Strong – awarded a CBE for services to business and the media.

Eleven-year-old disability campaigner Carmela Chillery-Watson is the youngest to be recognised after helping raise more than £400,000 for Muscular Dystrophy UK.

The oldest is 106-year-old William Irwin, founder of the Coleraine Winemakers Club, who gets a BEM (British Empire Medal) for services to the community.

However, the top accolade has been awarded to sculptor Sir Antony Gormley, the man behind the Angel of the North, who is made Companion of Honour for services to art.

There can only be 65 companions at any one time.

Other notable names on the list include former defence secretary Penny Mordaunt – who famously had a prominent role holding a sword at the King’s coronation – and is now a dame; and former EastEnders actress Anita Dobson, who gets an OBE.