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A series of iPhone 16s on display inside the Apple store at Tun Razak Exchange in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Sept. 20, 2024.

Annice Lyn | Getty Images News | Getty Images

One of the first things Steve Jobs did when he returned to Apple in 1997 was simplify Apple’s product lineup. At the time that meant four computers: Two laptops and two desktops, each in a pro and consumer version. 

“If we had four great products, that’s all we need,” Jobs said at a product launch in 1998.

Three decades later, Apple’s product lineup is much broader. The company in 2024 launched four iPads, four MacBooks, two desktop Macs, one Vision Pro headset, two Apple Watch models and three kinds of AirPods. But when it comes to iPhones, four remains the magic number. 

That’s how many iPhones the company has released each year since 2020, and in September, it released the iPhone 16, the iPhone 16 Plus, the iPhone 16 Pro and the iPhone 16 Pro Max.

Apple introduced the four-phone lineup because historically the company’s iPhone sales have seen the strongest growth when it expanded the lineup. If Apple can show growth from the four new phones it releases each year without them cannibalizing one another, that gives the company its best chance to see iPhone sales grow meaningfully for the first time since 2022.

The company doesn’t give sales figures for its individual products, and overall iPhone sales for fiscal 2024 came in at $201.18 billion. That’s relatively flat going back to 2022. 

Unfortunately for Jobs’ company, not all of the iPhones are equally popular. 

Every year since 2020, one of the new iPhone models has lagged its siblings in sales. This year it’s the iPhone 16 Plus, which lands in the middle of the lineup. At $899 in the U.S., it’s more expensive than the baseline iPhone 16 but cheaper than the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max, which have better screens.

DSCC, a research firm focused on the smartphone display industry with estimates derived from the panel supply chain, has picked up on this trend. The shares of the Pro and Pro Max phones have been rising on an annual basis while the Plus model declined from about 21% of total Apple screen orders in 2022 to 10% in 2023, according to DSCC’s data for annual panel procurement through October. While it recovered somewhat to 16% this year, it’s still the lowest volume out of the company’s new iPhones, according to DSCC.

“They’re still really struggling with this fourth model,” DSCC founder Ross Young said.

Other data shows the Plus lagging, too. The iPhone 16 Plus accounted for 4% of overall iPhone sales in the U.S. in the third quarter while both the Pro and Pro Max each accounted for 6% of sales, according to survey findings by Consumer Intelligence Research Partners. The regular 16 accounted for 4%, too, although early cycle iPhone sales are heavily weighted toward early adopters and the Pro models, according to CIRP.

The metric only includes a few weeks of the latest model sales in the third quarter, but the 2024 findings are in line with last year’s, where the 15 Plus accounted for 3% of total sales about a month after launch.

Apple’s iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max took the top three spots, respectively, in Counterpoint’s data for the best-selling individual smartphone models around the world in the third quarter of 2024. The Plus model didn’t make the top 10 list.

The Mini and Plus failures

Apple’s Series 16 iPhones are seen on display at the Apple Store, Regent Street on September 20, 2024 in London, England. 

Peter Nicholls | Getty Images News | Getty Images

When the iPhone was introduced in 2007 there was one new model per year. The lineup has expanded quite a bit since then, while Apple keeps older models on store shelves as budget options.

In 2014, Apple introduced the iPhone 6 Plus, the first time iPhone came in two sizes, which led to three straight quarters of growth of over 27% in 2015. After Apple released the iPhone X in 2017, raising the price of the highest-end phone and creating a three-model lineup, the company saw three straight quarters of growth of more than 15%.

After Apple moved to a four-phone lineup in 2020, growth surged, hitting 54% in one quarter, although that was partially boosted by the pandemic. But since then, iPhone sales have been basically flat.

When the company introduced the iPhone Mini in 2020, it was the lowest-cost new iPhone at the time, at $699. 

Apple kept the same strategy in place in 2021, hoping that the vocal minority of consumers that had previously demanded smaller phones would flock to the device. It didn’t work, and Apple no longer sells a device with a 5.4-inch screen.

By 2022, Apple shifted its approach and introduced the iPhone 14 Plus, which had the same chip and features as the company’s entry level iPhone 14 but a larger screen. That mirrored Apple’s successful strategy from 2014. Apple boosted its panel procurement for the iPhone 14 Plus up to 21% of the total screens it ordered that cycle, according to DSCC.

But the Plus strategy didn’t work as well as it had before. 

Is Air next?

The new iPhone 16 Pro model is available at an Apple store in Bangkok, Thailand, on September 20, 2024. Apple now makes available to consumers its new lineup of iPhone 16 models, which are the iPhone 16, Plus, Pro, and Pro Max. 

Anusak Laowilas | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Looking ahead, Apple is keeping its four iPhones strategy in place, but it may change the approach it takes to finding a successful fourth model for its 2025 lineup.

Instead of a fourth Mini model at the low end of the lineup or a Plus in the middle, Apple may introduce an Air model at the top of the lineup. An Air offering could be distinguished by a lighter-weight device and a higher starting price, according to an August report by Bloomberg News.

Despite giving it a higher price tag, Apple may have to make a trade-off on the Air device by limiting it to one camera, due to the lighter weight and a slimmer design. Apple’s current high-end phones, the Pro and Pro Max, have three big cameras that add photographic capabilities but also add weight. DSCC’s Young said he expects the screen size of the Air to come in at 6.55 inches, between this year’s Pro and Pro Max sizes.

A new high-end phone could make sense for Apple. In recent years, the Max models have outperformed the lower-end models in sales, suggesting there is stronger demand for more powerful and feature-packed phones at the top of Apple’s lineup than there is for lower-cost models.

In October, Apple signaled that the company had enough stock of the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus to meet demand but that the more expensive Pro and Pro Max were still in short supply.

Outside the U.S., Apple’s more expensive models have shown more growth in recent years. In the first three weeks of iPhone 16 sales in China, the 16 Pro and Pro Max models were up 44% compared with last year’s high-end models.

Model preferences also vary across regions, Counterpoint analyst Varun Mishra told CNBC.

“In China, the Pro series is performing well, as consumers there tend to favour the Pro models,” Mishra said in an email. “In India, the Pro series is strong, partly due to a lower launch price compared to last year, thanks to local manufacturing.”

Apple has previously released thinner, lighter models of its existing products in order to raise prices and push the limits of its engineering. In 2008, Apple introduced the MacBook Air, which it marketed by saying that it was thin enough to fit in an envelope. At first, it was more expensive than Apple’s other Macs, starting at $1,799, but over the years, MacBook Air has become Apple’s entry-level laptop.

In 2013, the company did the same thing with its iPad, introducing an iPad Air, with a thinner design, although it was Apple’s flagship new iPad model released that year. Apple now uses the iPad Air as the middle option in its iPad lineup.

For Apple, a shift from Plus to Air could mean more iPhone sales, especially if the new model is priced higher than the other iPhones, which could help Apple expand its margin and continue the recent trend of a higher average iPhone selling price. It could also help focus Apple’s early adopters and fans on one single high-end iPhone model.

“Next year they’re going to try something different,” Young said.

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X rival Bluesky gains 1.25 million users following U.S. election

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X rival Bluesky gains 1.25 million users following U.S. election

In this photo illustration, the Bluesky Social logo is displayed on a cell phone in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on September 4, 2024. 

Mauro Pimentel | AFP | Getty Images

Micro-blogging startup Bluesky has gained over 1.25 million new users in the past week, indicating some social media users are changing their habits following the U.S. presidential election. 

Bluesky’s influx of users shows that the app has been able to pitch itself as an alternative to X, formerly Twitter, which is owned by Elon Musk, as well as Meta’s Threads. The bulk of the new users are coming from the U.S., Canada and the United Kingdom, the company said Wednesday. 

“We’re excited to welcome everyone looking for a better social media experience,” Bluesky CEO Jay Graber told CNBC in a statement.

Despite the surge of users, Bluesky’s total base remains a fraction of its rivals’. The Seattle startup claims 15.2 million total users. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg in October said Threads had nearly 275 million monthly users. Musk in May claimed that X had 600 million monthly users, but market intelligence firm Sensor Tower pegged X’s monthly base at 318 million users in October.

Created in 2019 as a project inside Twitter, when Jack Dorsey was still CEO, Bluesky doesn’t show ads and has yet to develop a business model. It became an independent company in 2021. Dorsey said in May of this year that he’s no longer a member of Bluesky’s board.

“Journalists, politicians, and news junkies have also been talking up Bluesky as a better X alternative than Threads,” wrote Similarweb, the internet traffic and monitoring service, in a Tuesday blog.

Some users with new Bluesky accounts posted that they had moved to the service due to Musk and his support for President-elect Donald Trump. 

“It’s appalling that Elon Musk has transformed Twitter into a Trump propaganda machine, rife with disinformation and misinformation,” one user posted on Bluesky. 

This is Bluesky’s second notable surge in the last couple of months. 

Bluesky said it picked up 2 million new users in September after the Brazilian Supreme Court suspended X in the country for failing to comply with regional content moderation policies and not appointing a local representative.

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Cisco reports fourth straight quarter of declining revenue

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Cisco reports fourth straight quarter of declining revenue

Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins speaks at The Wall Street Journal’s Future of Everything Festival in New York on May 21, 2024.

Dia Dipasupil | Getty Images

Cisco reported a fourth straight quarter of declining revenue even as results topped analysts’ estimates. The stock slipped 2.5% in extended trading.

Here’s how the company did in comparison with LSEG consensus:

  • Earnings per share: 91 cents adjusted vs. 87 cents expected
  • Revenue: $13.84 billion vs. $13.77 billion expected

Cisco’s revenue dropped 6% in the quarter ended Oct. 26, from $14.7 billion a year earlier, according to a statement. Net income fell to $2.71 billion, or 68 cents per share, from $3.64 billion, or 89 cents per share, in the same quarter a year ago.

Networking revenue plunged 23% to $6.75 billion, slightly below the $6.8 billion consensus of analysts surveyed by StreetAccount.

Security revenue doubled to $2.02 billion, topping the StreetAccount consensus of $1.93 billion. Cisco’s revenue from collaboration was $1.09 billion, a bit below the $1.04 billion consensus estimate.

Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins said on the earnings call on Wednesday that orders from large-scale clients for artificial intelligence infrastructure exceeded $300 million in the quarter. Server makers such as Dell and HPE have also focused on sales of hardware that can help clients implement generative AI.

“We have earned more design wins and remain confident that we will exceed our target of $1 billion of AI orders this fiscal year from web-scale customers,” Robbins said.

Cisco has announced hardware containing Nvidia’s graphics processing units, which are widely used for training AI models, Robbins said.

“Over time, you’ll see us support other GPUs as the market demands,” he said. “But that partnership is still going fine. It’s still early. And I think 2025 is when we’ll start to see enterprise real deployment of some of these technologies.”

For now, enterprises are updating data center infrastructure to prepare for AI and the widespread deployment of AI applications, Robbins said.

U.S. government agencies have delayed deals with Cisco, rather than scrapping them altogether. The Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, which became law in June of last year, has limited U.S. government spending, said Scott Herren, Cisco’s finance chief.

Herren said that with Republicans poised to control the White House and both houses of Congress, he expects “to get a budget in place relatively soon.”

During the quarter, Cisco acquired security startups DeepFactor and Robust Intelligence.

Cisco lifted its full-year guidance to $3.60 to $3.66 in adjusted earnings per share on $55.3 billion to $56.3 billion in revenue, up from a prior forecast of $3.52 to $3.58 in EPS and $55 billion to $56.2 billion in revenue. Guidance would indicate projected revenue growth of 3.3% at the middle of the range.

Analysts expected adjusted earnings for the year of $3.58 per share on $55.89 billion in revenue.

As of Wednesday’s close, Cisco’s stock was up 17% year to date, while the S&P 500 index is up around 26% over that stretch.

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Trump victory may provide TikTok a lifeline to remain in the U.S.

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Trump victory may provide TikTok a lifeline to remain in the U.S.

Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump, (C) greets attendees during a campaign stop to address Pennsylvanians who are concerned about the threat of Communist China to U.S. agriculture at the Smith Family Farm September 23, 2024 in Smithton, Pennsylvania. 

Win Mcnamee | Getty Images

After Donald Trump won the U.S. presidency last week, tech CEOs including Apple‘s Tim Cook, Meta‘s Mark Zuckerberg and Amazon‘s Jeff Bezos publicly praised the president-elect.

One name was conspicuously missing: TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew.

His absence was notable considering that of all the top tech companies, TikTok faces the most immediate and existential threat from the U.S. government. In April, President Joe Biden signed a law that requires China’s ByteDance to sell TikTok by Jan. 19. If ByteDance fails to comply, internet hosting companies and app store owners such as Apple and Google will be prohibited from supporting TikTok, effectively banning it in the U.S.

Trump’s return to the White House, though, may provide a lifeline for Chew and TikTok. 

Although both Republicans and Democrats supported the Biden TikTok ban in April, Trump voiced opposition to the ban during his candidacy. Trump acknowledged the national security and data privacy concerns with TikTok in a March interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” but he also said “there’s a lot of good and there’s a lot of bad” with the app.

Trump also leveraged TikTok’s shaky future in the U.S. as a reason for people to vote against Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris.

“We’re not doing anything with TikTok, but the other side is going to close it up, so if you like TikTok, go out and vote for Trump,” the president-elect said in a September post on his Truth Social service.

Since his election, Trump hasn’t publicly discussed his plans for TikTok, but Trump-Vance transition spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told CNBC that the president-elect “will deliver.”

“The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail,” Leavitt said in a statement. 

Trump’s rhetoric on TikTok began to turn after the president-elect met in February with billionaire Jeff Yass, a Republican megadonor and a major investor in the Chinese-owned social media app.

Yass’s trading firm Susquehanna International Group owns a 15% stake in ByteDance while Yass maintains a 7% stake in the company, equating to about $21 billion, NBC and CNBC reported in March. That month it was also reported that Yass was a part owner of the business that merged with the parent company of Trump’s Truth Social.

TikTok’s CEO Shou Zi Chew testifies during the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on online child sexual exploitation, at the U.S. Capitol, in Washington, U.S., January 31, 2024. 

Nathan Howard | Reuters

If ByteDance doesn’t sell TikTok by the January deadline, Trump could potentially call on Congress to repeal the law or he can introduce a more “selective enforcement” of the law that would essentially allow TikTok to continue operating in the U.S. without facing penalties, said Sarah Kreps, a Cornell University professor of government. “Selective enforcement” would be akin to police officers not always enforcing every single instance of jaywalking, she said.

At TikTok, meanwhile, Chew has remained quiet since Trump’s victory, just as he had been in the lead-up to Election Day. 

The Chinese-owned company may be taking a neutral approach and a wait-and-see strategy for now, said Long Le, a China business expert and Santa Clara University associate teaching professor.

Le said it’s hard to foresee what Trump will do. 

“He’s also a contrarian; that’s what makes him unpredictable,” Le said. “He can say one thing, and the next year he’ll change his mind.”

TikTok didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee at the Dirksen Senate Office Building on January 31, 2024 in Washington, DC.

Alex Wong | Getty Images

‘Facebook has been very bad for our country’

When it comes to social media apps, Trump’s campaign comments suggest he’s more concerned with TikTok rival Meta. 

In his March interview with “Squawk Box,” Trump said Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram, posed a much bigger problem than TikTok. He also said a TikTok ban would only benefit Meta, which he labeled “an enemy of the people.”

“Facebook has been very bad for our country, especially when it comes to elections,” Trump said.

But Trump’s negative views on Meta may have changed after comments by CEO Mark Zuckerberg over the past few months, Cornell’s Kreps said. 

Zuckerberg described the photo of Trump raising his fist following a failed assassination attempt in July as “one of the most badass things I’ve ever seen in my life.” And after Trump’s win, Zuckerberg congratulated him, saying he was looking forward to working with the president-elect and his administration.

“My sense as an armchair psychologist of Trump is that he really likes people who sing his praises, and so his view on Zuckerberg and Meta, I would imagine, has changed,” Kreps said. “He might then just revert to his American economic nationalism here and say, ‘Let’s protect American industry and continue with the Chinese ban.'”

Meta didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Maintaining support of the TikTok ban could also win Trump political favor with lawmakers concerned about China’s global political and business influence, said Milton Mueller, a professor at Georgia Tech’s School of Public Policy.

“I don’t see him scoring big points politically by standing up for TikTok,” Mueller said, noting that few lawmakers, like Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., have opposed the ban.

Even if Trump does provide a lifeline for TikTok, it’s unclear how much damage that would do to his administration since many politicians are reluctant to publicly criticize him, Le said.

“They’re not going to challenge him because he just got so much power,” Le said. 

Since launching his TikTok account in June, Trump has amassed over 14 million followers. Given his social media savvy, Trump may not want to make a decision that results in him losing the public attention and influence he’s gained on TikTok, Le said.

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