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A series of iPhone 16s on display inside the Apple store at Tun Razak Exchange in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Sept. 20, 2024.

Annice Lyn | Getty Images News | Getty Images

One of the first things Steve Jobs did when he returned to Apple in 1997 was simplify Apple’s product lineup. At the time that meant four computers: Two laptops and two desktops, each in a pro and consumer version. 

“If we had four great products, that’s all we need,” Jobs said at a product launch in 1998.

Three decades later, Apple’s product lineup is much broader. The company in 2024 launched four iPads, four MacBooks, two desktop Macs, one Vision Pro headset, two Apple Watch models and three kinds of AirPods. But when it comes to iPhones, four remains the magic number. 

That’s how many iPhones the company has released each year since 2020, and in September, it released the iPhone 16, the iPhone 16 Plus, the iPhone 16 Pro and the iPhone 16 Pro Max.

Apple introduced the four-phone lineup because historically the company’s iPhone sales have seen the strongest growth when it expanded the lineup. If Apple can show growth from the four new phones it releases each year without them cannibalizing one another, that gives the company its best chance to see iPhone sales grow meaningfully for the first time since 2022.

The company doesn’t give sales figures for its individual products, and overall iPhone sales for fiscal 2024 came in at $201.18 billion. That’s relatively flat going back to 2022. 

Unfortunately for Jobs’ company, not all of the iPhones are equally popular. 

Every year since 2020, one of the new iPhone models has lagged its siblings in sales. This year it’s the iPhone 16 Plus, which lands in the middle of the lineup. At $899 in the U.S., it’s more expensive than the baseline iPhone 16 but cheaper than the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max, which have better screens.

DSCC, a research firm focused on the smartphone display industry with estimates derived from the panel supply chain, has picked up on this trend. The shares of the Pro and Pro Max phones have been rising on an annual basis while the Plus model declined from about 21% of total Apple screen orders in 2022 to 10% in 2023, according to DSCC’s data for annual panel procurement through October. While it recovered somewhat to 16% this year, it’s still the lowest volume out of the company’s new iPhones, according to DSCC.

“They’re still really struggling with this fourth model,” DSCC founder Ross Young said.

Other data shows the Plus lagging, too. The iPhone 16 Plus accounted for 4% of overall iPhone sales in the U.S. in the third quarter while both the Pro and Pro Max each accounted for 6% of sales, according to survey findings by Consumer Intelligence Research Partners. The regular 16 accounted for 4%, too, although early cycle iPhone sales are heavily weighted toward early adopters and the Pro models, according to CIRP.

The metric only includes a few weeks of the latest model sales in the third quarter, but the 2024 findings are in line with last year’s, where the 15 Plus accounted for 3% of total sales about a month after launch.

Apple’s iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max took the top three spots, respectively, in Counterpoint’s data for the best-selling individual smartphone models around the world in the third quarter of 2024. The Plus model didn’t make the top 10 list.

The Mini and Plus failures

Apple’s Series 16 iPhones are seen on display at the Apple Store, Regent Street on September 20, 2024 in London, England. 

Peter Nicholls | Getty Images News | Getty Images

When the iPhone was introduced in 2007 there was one new model per year. The lineup has expanded quite a bit since then, while Apple keeps older models on store shelves as budget options.

In 2014, Apple introduced the iPhone 6 Plus, the first time iPhone came in two sizes, which led to three straight quarters of growth of over 27% in 2015. After Apple released the iPhone X in 2017, raising the price of the highest-end phone and creating a three-model lineup, the company saw three straight quarters of growth of more than 15%.

After Apple moved to a four-phone lineup in 2020, growth surged, hitting 54% in one quarter, although that was partially boosted by the pandemic. But since then, iPhone sales have been basically flat.

When the company introduced the iPhone Mini in 2020, it was the lowest-cost new iPhone at the time, at $699. 

Apple kept the same strategy in place in 2021, hoping that the vocal minority of consumers that had previously demanded smaller phones would flock to the device. It didn’t work, and Apple no longer sells a device with a 5.4-inch screen.

By 2022, Apple shifted its approach and introduced the iPhone 14 Plus, which had the same chip and features as the company’s entry level iPhone 14 but a larger screen. That mirrored Apple’s successful strategy from 2014. Apple boosted its panel procurement for the iPhone 14 Plus up to 21% of the total screens it ordered that cycle, according to DSCC.

But the Plus strategy didn’t work as well as it had before. 

Is Air next?

The new iPhone 16 Pro model is available at an Apple store in Bangkok, Thailand, on September 20, 2024. Apple now makes available to consumers its new lineup of iPhone 16 models, which are the iPhone 16, Plus, Pro, and Pro Max. 

Anusak Laowilas | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Looking ahead, Apple is keeping its four iPhones strategy in place, but it may change the approach it takes to finding a successful fourth model for its 2025 lineup.

Instead of a fourth Mini model at the low end of the lineup or a Plus in the middle, Apple may introduce an Air model at the top of the lineup. An Air offering could be distinguished by a lighter-weight device and a higher starting price, according to an August report by Bloomberg News.

Despite giving it a higher price tag, Apple may have to make a trade-off on the Air device by limiting it to one camera, due to the lighter weight and a slimmer design. Apple’s current high-end phones, the Pro and Pro Max, have three big cameras that add photographic capabilities but also add weight. DSCC’s Young said he expects the screen size of the Air to come in at 6.55 inches, between this year’s Pro and Pro Max sizes.

A new high-end phone could make sense for Apple. In recent years, the Max models have outperformed the lower-end models in sales, suggesting there is stronger demand for more powerful and feature-packed phones at the top of Apple’s lineup than there is for lower-cost models.

In October, Apple signaled that the company had enough stock of the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus to meet demand but that the more expensive Pro and Pro Max were still in short supply.

Outside the U.S., Apple’s more expensive models have shown more growth in recent years. In the first three weeks of iPhone 16 sales in China, the 16 Pro and Pro Max models were up 44% compared with last year’s high-end models.

Model preferences also vary across regions, Counterpoint analyst Varun Mishra told CNBC.

“In China, the Pro series is performing well, as consumers there tend to favour the Pro models,” Mishra said in an email. “In India, the Pro series is strong, partly due to a lower launch price compared to last year, thanks to local manufacturing.”

Apple has previously released thinner, lighter models of its existing products in order to raise prices and push the limits of its engineering. In 2008, Apple introduced the MacBook Air, which it marketed by saying that it was thin enough to fit in an envelope. At first, it was more expensive than Apple’s other Macs, starting at $1,799, but over the years, MacBook Air has become Apple’s entry-level laptop.

In 2013, the company did the same thing with its iPad, introducing an iPad Air, with a thinner design, although it was Apple’s flagship new iPad model released that year. Apple now uses the iPad Air as the middle option in its iPad lineup.

For Apple, a shift from Plus to Air could mean more iPhone sales, especially if the new model is priced higher than the other iPhones, which could help Apple expand its margin and continue the recent trend of a higher average iPhone selling price. It could also help focus Apple’s early adopters and fans on one single high-end iPhone model.

“Next year they’re going to try something different,” Young said.

WATCH: The iPhone 16 upgrade can be a multiyear cycle, says BofA’s Wamsi Mohan

The iPhone 16 upgrade can be a multi-year cycle, says BofA’s Wamsi Mohan

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Defense startup Govini founder Eric Gillespie charged in child sex sting

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Defense startup Govini founder Eric Gillespie charged in child sex sting

Mug shot of Eric Gillespie, Govini Founder and Chairman.

Courtesy: Pennsylvania Attorney General

The founder of Virginia-based defense startup Govini was arrested on charges of attempting to solicit a pre-teen girl for sexual contact in Pennsylvania, authorities said Monday.

The founder, Eric Gillespie, 57, was charged with four felonies, including multiple counts of unlawful contact with a minor, according to the Pennsylvania Attorney General’s Office.

Gillespie, who lives in Pittsburgh, was denied bail by the judge, citing flight risk and concerns over public safety.

His company has a $900-million U.S. government contract and multiple deals with the Defense Department.

Govini, which last month announced it had passed $100 million in annual recurring revenue and is considered a prominent “unicorn” in the defense technology space, is a key partner in the U.S. Army’s Next Generation Command Control program.

Pentagon officials told CNBC they are looking into the arrest and possible security issues.

Gillespie lists himself as executive chairman of the company on his LinkedIn page.

Gillespie was considered an expert in transparency in government and was appointed to the Freedom of Information Act Advisory Committee by the Obama Administration in 2014.

The White House has referred all security clearance questions to the Department of Defense.

An agent posed as an adult on an online chat platform that the AG’s office said was often utilized by offenders who try to arrange meetings with children, and engaged in a conversation with Gillespie.

The AG’s office said Gillespie then made attempts to arrange a meeting with who he believed was a pre-teenage girl in Lebanon County, which is located near Hershey, Pennsylvania. Gillespie also alluded to methods he used to contact children, and other evidence was found.

Govini did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Read more CNBC tech news

The state attorney general’s office would not comment on questions about electronic devices seized during the sting. The AG’s office is asking the public to come forward with any other information on the case.

Govini, along with Anduril Industries, Palantir, Striveworks, Instant Connect Enterprise, Research Innovations, Inc., Microsoft and Lockheed Martin are also a part of the $99.6 million U.S. Army’s Next Generation Command and Control program.

NGC2 is a program for the U.S. Army to transform command and control operations by ensuring commanders have access to critical real-time data and infrastructure in areas where communications may be disrupted.

According to the company, Govini’s suite of AI-enabled applications is used by every department of the U.S. military and other federal agencies. The access to sensitive information is vast.

The software analyzes supply chains and critical details of companies being considered by the U.S. government for acquisition, enabling the U.S. military to make informed decisions.

In a recent Bain Capital press release announcing a $150m investment of Govini, Scott Kirk, Partner at Bain Capital Tech Opportunities, said, “We’re thrilled to support Govini’s next phase of growth as it continues to revolutionize how the U.S. government acquires and deploys the capabilities that keep us safe.”

Bain has not responded to CNBC’s multiple emails for comment.

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What Anthropic’s $50 billion AI infrastructure investment means for these 3 portfolio stocks

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What Anthropic's  billion AI infrastructure investment means for these 3 portfolio stocks

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AI startup Code Metal is going beyond vibe coding with the help of $36 million in fresh capital

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AI startup Code Metal is going beyond vibe coding with the help of  million in fresh capital

Code Metal co-founders (L-R): SVP of technology Alex Showalter-Bucher, and CEO Peter Morales

Courtesy Code Metal Inc.

Peter Morales started Code Metal two years ago, jumping into the market for artificial intelligence coding tools at a time when AI companies were rapidly changing the market for software development.

Now he’s got $36.5 million in the bank, thanks to an investment led by venture firm Accel Partners, known for early bets on Facebook, Dropbox and Atlassian.

Code Metal’s technology allows software engineers to write code once, then automatically translate it into any other programming language so they can ship new features faster and to a wider swath of users. Morales, who was previously technology chief at a gaming company, said Code Metal’s offering is particularly appealing to developers working on software to run appliances, consumer electronics, factory robotics, autos and medical devices.

Those are industries with products that contain a wide array of chips, which come with different software development kits, operating systems and code libraries. Morales gave the example of an automaker creating a feature for a new model sports car running on the latest Nvidia chip, and the challenge of porting the code behind the feature to the company’s older line of minivans. Code Metal’s AI would automatically handle the translation.

Morales is positioning the company as distinct from so-called vibe-coding platforms like Cursor or Anthropic’s Claude Code, which allow users to automate much of the process of writing software with text prompts.

“Vibe coding is all about explaining an initial idea in text, and generating code that will get you started developing your minimum viable product,” Morales said. “This is not where most companies spend their time. Code Metal focuses on bringing code to production. That requires strong guarantees the code we’re converting is accurate, compliant and working as expected.”

Morales said large language models alone can’t provide this level of certainty, so Code Metal employs what computer scientists call formal methods to check the code and make it’s been translated correctly.

The company, based in Boston, says it’s already struck contracts worth tens of millions of dollars with commercial and public sector clients, including the U.S. Air Force, L3Harris and Raytheon as well as some automotive suppliers and consumer electronics brands.

Accel’s Steve Loughlin, who led the deal, said Code Metal is the fastest growing company in his firm’s portfolio of early-stage startups, and that demand for its technology is surging.

“The market opportunity is practically uncapped here,” Loughlin said, “to help people develop on the edge much faster and modernize legacy code.”

Code Metal’s earlier backers J2 ventures and Shield Capital also participated in the round, along with Bosch ventures and Raytheon’s RTX Ventures.

WATCH: The rise of AI ‘vibe coding’

The rise of AI 'vibe coding'

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