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A series of iPhone 16s on display inside the Apple store at Tun Razak Exchange in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Sept. 20, 2024.

Annice Lyn | Getty Images News | Getty Images

One of the first things Steve Jobs did when he returned to Apple in 1997 was simplify Apple’s product lineup. At the time that meant four computers: Two laptops and two desktops, each in a pro and consumer version. 

“If we had four great products, that’s all we need,” Jobs said at a product launch in 1998.

Three decades later, Apple’s product lineup is much broader. The company in 2024 launched four iPads, four MacBooks, two desktop Macs, one Vision Pro headset, two Apple Watch models and three kinds of AirPods. But when it comes to iPhones, four remains the magic number. 

That’s how many iPhones the company has released each year since 2020, and in September, it released the iPhone 16, the iPhone 16 Plus, the iPhone 16 Pro and the iPhone 16 Pro Max.

Apple introduced the four-phone lineup because historically the company’s iPhone sales have seen the strongest growth when it expanded the lineup. If Apple can show growth from the four new phones it releases each year without them cannibalizing one another, that gives the company its best chance to see iPhone sales grow meaningfully for the first time since 2022.

The company doesn’t give sales figures for its individual products, and overall iPhone sales for fiscal 2024 came in at $201.18 billion. That’s relatively flat going back to 2022. 

Unfortunately for Jobs’ company, not all of the iPhones are equally popular. 

Every year since 2020, one of the new iPhone models has lagged its siblings in sales. This year it’s the iPhone 16 Plus, which lands in the middle of the lineup. At $899 in the U.S., it’s more expensive than the baseline iPhone 16 but cheaper than the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max, which have better screens.

DSCC, a research firm focused on the smartphone display industry with estimates derived from the panel supply chain, has picked up on this trend. The shares of the Pro and Pro Max phones have been rising on an annual basis while the Plus model declined from about 21% of total Apple screen orders in 2022 to 10% in 2023, according to DSCC’s data for annual panel procurement through October. While it recovered somewhat to 16% this year, it’s still the lowest volume out of the company’s new iPhones, according to DSCC.

“They’re still really struggling with this fourth model,” DSCC founder Ross Young said.

Other data shows the Plus lagging, too. The iPhone 16 Plus accounted for 4% of overall iPhone sales in the U.S. in the third quarter while both the Pro and Pro Max each accounted for 6% of sales, according to survey findings by Consumer Intelligence Research Partners. The regular 16 accounted for 4%, too, although early cycle iPhone sales are heavily weighted toward early adopters and the Pro models, according to CIRP.

The metric only includes a few weeks of the latest model sales in the third quarter, but the 2024 findings are in line with last year’s, where the 15 Plus accounted for 3% of total sales about a month after launch.

Apple’s iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max took the top three spots, respectively, in Counterpoint’s data for the best-selling individual smartphone models around the world in the third quarter of 2024. The Plus model didn’t make the top 10 list.

The Mini and Plus failures

Apple’s Series 16 iPhones are seen on display at the Apple Store, Regent Street on September 20, 2024 in London, England. 

Peter Nicholls | Getty Images News | Getty Images

When the iPhone was introduced in 2007 there was one new model per year. The lineup has expanded quite a bit since then, while Apple keeps older models on store shelves as budget options.

In 2014, Apple introduced the iPhone 6 Plus, the first time iPhone came in two sizes, which led to three straight quarters of growth of over 27% in 2015. After Apple released the iPhone X in 2017, raising the price of the highest-end phone and creating a three-model lineup, the company saw three straight quarters of growth of more than 15%.

After Apple moved to a four-phone lineup in 2020, growth surged, hitting 54% in one quarter, although that was partially boosted by the pandemic. But since then, iPhone sales have been basically flat.

When the company introduced the iPhone Mini in 2020, it was the lowest-cost new iPhone at the time, at $699. 

Apple kept the same strategy in place in 2021, hoping that the vocal minority of consumers that had previously demanded smaller phones would flock to the device. It didn’t work, and Apple no longer sells a device with a 5.4-inch screen.

By 2022, Apple shifted its approach and introduced the iPhone 14 Plus, which had the same chip and features as the company’s entry level iPhone 14 but a larger screen. That mirrored Apple’s successful strategy from 2014. Apple boosted its panel procurement for the iPhone 14 Plus up to 21% of the total screens it ordered that cycle, according to DSCC.

But the Plus strategy didn’t work as well as it had before. 

Is Air next?

The new iPhone 16 Pro model is available at an Apple store in Bangkok, Thailand, on September 20, 2024. Apple now makes available to consumers its new lineup of iPhone 16 models, which are the iPhone 16, Plus, Pro, and Pro Max. 

Anusak Laowilas | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Looking ahead, Apple is keeping its four iPhones strategy in place, but it may change the approach it takes to finding a successful fourth model for its 2025 lineup.

Instead of a fourth Mini model at the low end of the lineup or a Plus in the middle, Apple may introduce an Air model at the top of the lineup. An Air offering could be distinguished by a lighter-weight device and a higher starting price, according to an August report by Bloomberg News.

Despite giving it a higher price tag, Apple may have to make a trade-off on the Air device by limiting it to one camera, due to the lighter weight and a slimmer design. Apple’s current high-end phones, the Pro and Pro Max, have three big cameras that add photographic capabilities but also add weight. DSCC’s Young said he expects the screen size of the Air to come in at 6.55 inches, between this year’s Pro and Pro Max sizes.

A new high-end phone could make sense for Apple. In recent years, the Max models have outperformed the lower-end models in sales, suggesting there is stronger demand for more powerful and feature-packed phones at the top of Apple’s lineup than there is for lower-cost models.

In October, Apple signaled that the company had enough stock of the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus to meet demand but that the more expensive Pro and Pro Max were still in short supply.

Outside the U.S., Apple’s more expensive models have shown more growth in recent years. In the first three weeks of iPhone 16 sales in China, the 16 Pro and Pro Max models were up 44% compared with last year’s high-end models.

Model preferences also vary across regions, Counterpoint analyst Varun Mishra told CNBC.

“In China, the Pro series is performing well, as consumers there tend to favour the Pro models,” Mishra said in an email. “In India, the Pro series is strong, partly due to a lower launch price compared to last year, thanks to local manufacturing.”

Apple has previously released thinner, lighter models of its existing products in order to raise prices and push the limits of its engineering. In 2008, Apple introduced the MacBook Air, which it marketed by saying that it was thin enough to fit in an envelope. At first, it was more expensive than Apple’s other Macs, starting at $1,799, but over the years, MacBook Air has become Apple’s entry-level laptop.

In 2013, the company did the same thing with its iPad, introducing an iPad Air, with a thinner design, although it was Apple’s flagship new iPad model released that year. Apple now uses the iPad Air as the middle option in its iPad lineup.

For Apple, a shift from Plus to Air could mean more iPhone sales, especially if the new model is priced higher than the other iPhones, which could help Apple expand its margin and continue the recent trend of a higher average iPhone selling price. It could also help focus Apple’s early adopters and fans on one single high-end iPhone model.

“Next year they’re going to try something different,” Young said.

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SpaceX faces opposition to Starlink expansion from Ukrainian group concerned about Musk ties to Russia

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SpaceX faces opposition to Starlink expansion from Ukrainian group concerned about Musk ties to Russia

The Starlink logo is seen on a mobile device with an grahpic illustration of planet Earth in this illustration photo in Warsaw, Poland on 21 September, 2022.

STR | Nurphoto | Getty Images

SpaceX’s effort to put an additional 22,488 satellites into low-earth orbit is facing a formal objection from a Ukrainian-American nonprofit, which says it’s concerned about CEO Elon Musk’s “contacts with Russia and the alleged use of his Starlink system by Russian forces in Ukraine.”

In a petition to deny and motion for stay filed with the Federal Communications Commission on Wednesday, the Ukrainian Congress Committee of America (UCCA) also cited negative environmental impacts of SpaceX launches in Texas and Musk’s potential conflicts of interest due to his work with the incoming Trump administration.

SpaceX’s Starlink system has been linked to Ukraine since terminals arrived there shortly after Russian troops invaded the neighboring country in early 2022. The following year, the Pentagon agreed to purchase Starlink satellite internet terminals for use in Ukraine’s ongoing defense against Russia.

However, in September 2023, Americans of Ukrainian descent rebuked the SpaceX CEO after it emerged that he had thwarted a major attack on the Russian navy. Musk said at the time that he had told his engineers not to turn on SpaceX’s Starlink satellite network over Crimea in order to prevent a planned attack by Ukraine on the Black Sea fleet in 2022.

“There is a necessity to determine if Starlink has been used to help a foreign adversary,” UCCA President Michael Sawkiw, Jr., told CNBC, regarding the group’s decision to file a petition and motion to the FCC this week. “If yes, this is not in the national security interest of Ukrainian-Americans, or of the entire country.”

The UCCA isn’t the only group concerned about Musk’s relationship with the Kremlin.

The Wall Street Journal reported in October that Musk had engaged in a series of “secret conversations” with Russian President Vladimir Putin leading up to the 2024 presidential election. Members of Congress and NASA Administrator Bill Nelson have called for an investigation into those contacts.

A month before the Journal story, Newsweek and others reported that Russia had installed Starlink terminals in its Iranian-designed Shahed drones, used in their military offense in Ukraine. Starlink didn’t provide a comment for the story, but earlier in the year, in February, Musk said in a social media post that news reports suggesting Starlink was selling terminals to Russia were “categorically false,” and that “to the best of our knowledge, no Starlinks have been sold directly or indirectly to Russia.”

Sawkiw said his group advocates for causes of concern to an estimated 2 million Americans of Ukrainian descent living in the U.S. today, many of whom arrived after the war began in February 2022.

Former U.S. ambassador to Russia criticizes Elon Musk's reported contact with Putin

The Starlink satellites referred to in the petition would enable the company to deliver internet services to more destinations around the world as part of its Gen2 NGSO Satellite System.

Musk didn’t respond to a request for comment, nor did Tim Hughes, senior vice president for global business and government affairs.

Potential conflicts of interest

If Sawkiw’s group succeeds on legal merits, the FCC may have to pause approvals for SpaceX, leaving time for an environmental review, and for a plan to resolve any conflicts of interest arising from Musk’s new role with the forthcoming Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

DOGE is expected to function as a federal advisory committee that will have influence over regulations, government spending and personnel. The group could potentially recommend major changes at the FCC and influence the oversight of SpaceX and other Musk-led companies.

“Musk’s conflicts run the full gamut from financial to objectivity,” UCCA wrote in the petition. “His companies stand to financially benefit both from receiving government contracts and from actions taken by the federal government, including the FCC. Placing Musk at the head of DOGE is equivalent to allowing a fox to guard the henhouse.”

The motion asks the FCC to determine how Musk will comply with the Federal Advisory Committee Act, given his role with DOGE, before it authorizes any further SpaceX requests.

Regarding environmental concerns, UCCA’s lead regulatory counsel Arthur Belendiuk wrote in the filings to the FCC that the SpaceX launch facility in Boca Chica, Texas is a biologically diverse and essential habitat area for many species, including wildlife protected under the Endangered Species Act.” Referencing prior incidents, he added that, “Rocket launches in this area create the real risk of fire and debris being ejected onto adjacent environmentally protected lands.”

After reports that vibrations and noise from SpaceX launches led to the destruction of nine nests of an endangered bird species in the area, Musk wrote in a post on X in July, “To make up for this heinous crime, I will refrain from having omelette for a week.”

Belendiuk wrote in the petition that instead of remedying the damage caused by SpaceX launches, Musk “responds to the legitimate concerns of local environmental groups with sarcasm and mockery.”

The UCCA had filed comments in April against SpaceX in a separate FCC proceeding pertaining to a request by the company to access additional spectrum for its Starlink network.

Republican FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr said at the time that the group’s comments were “procedurally improper and substantively meritless,” and that it effectively wanted “the government to break the law by weaponizing it” against Musk.

Now, President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Carr to lead the FCC in his second administration. Carr’s office didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Belendiuk told CNBC that his group’s “focus isn’t solely on Musk or SpaceX.”

The group took legal action to take Radio Sputnik, which broadcast Russian government propaganda, off the public airwaves in the U.S., Beledniuk said, and is “actively engaged in discussions with chipmakers whose sanctioned products have been found in Russian weapons systems.”

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Trump says venture capitalist David Sacks will be AI and crypto ‘czar’

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Trump says venture capitalist David Sacks will be AI and crypto 'czar'

Zenefits CEO David Sacks speaks at the TechCrunch Disrupt conference in San Francisco, Calif.

Paul Chinn | San Francisco Chronicle | Hearst Newspapers via Getty Images

Venture investor and podcaster David Sacks will join the Trump administration as the “White House A.I. & Crypto Czar,” President-elect Donald Trump announced on Truth Social on Thursday.

Sacks will guide the administration’s policies for artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency, Trump wrote. Some of that work includes creating a legal framework for crypto, as well as leading a presidential council of advisors on science and technology.

“David will focus on making America the clear global leader in both areas,” Trump wrote. “He will safeguard Free Speech online, and steer us away from Big Tech bias and censorship.”

The appointment signals that the second Trump administration is rewarding Silicon Valley figures who supported his campaign. It also indicates that the administration will push for policies that cryptocurrency entrepreneurs generally support.

Sacks became a major Trump booster earlier this year, hosting a fundraiser for the then-Republican nominee at his San Francisco mansion. Tickets sold for $50,000 a head, with a $300,000 tier that included perks like a photo with Trump.

It was a stark change of tone for Sacks, who was sharply critical of Trump after the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021. Sacks said on an episode of his All-In podcast soon after that Trump was “clearly” responsible for the events of Jan. 6, and that he had “disqualified himself from being a candidate at a national level.”

In July, Sacks spoke at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

Sacks is a venture capitalist and entrepreneur who sold Yammer, to Microsoft for $1.2 billion in 2012. He’s also affiliated with the “PayPal mafia,” an unofficial club of prominent technology figures and investors, including Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, who worked at PayPal in the 1990s.

In recent years, Sacks has been best known for hosting the All-In podcast alongside fellow investors Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, and David Friedberg. In his post, Trump called it the “top podcast in Tech, where he and his friends discuss economic, political and social issues.”

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Waymo to expand to Miami, aims to launch robotaxi service there in 2026

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Waymo to expand to Miami, aims to launch robotaxi service there in 2026

A Waymo autonomous self-driving Jaguar taxi drives along a street on March 14, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. 

Mario Tama | Getty Images

Waymo is setting its sights on its next location: the Sunshine State.

The Alphabet-owned company announced Thursday that it will be hitting the roads in Miami. Waymo said it will first begin cruising through the Florida city with human safety drivers in 2025 before opening doors to riders for its robotaxi service through its Waymo One app in 2026.

The expansion into Miami is indicative of Waymo’s growing confidence in operating its self-driving vehicles in harsher weather conditions in large metropolitan areas in the U.S.

Waymo first tested in Miami in 2019, which the company said helped improve the ability of its self-driving vehicles to navigate in wet and rainy conditions.

“We deepened our learning and understanding of the Waymo Driver’s performance in adverse weather conditions,” a company spokesperson said.

Waymo will use what it learned when it returns to the city with its all-electric Jaguar I-PACEs next year.

The company said its initial territory in Florida will include some parts of Miami’s larger metropolitan area, which has a population of more than 6 million people.

Waymo has been rapidly expanding its operations over the last year thanks to additional funding.

In November, the company announced it was removing its waitlist of about 300,000 people in Los Angeles, so anyone would be able to use Waymo One to hail a self-driving robotaxi throughout the nearly 80 square miles of Los Angeles County. The company’s ride-hailing service also operates citywide in Phoenix and San Francisco.

And in September, Waymo announced a partnership with Uber in Austin and Atlanta. Through that deal, Uber riders will be able to access Waymo’s robotaxis through the Uber app starting in early 2025, and Uber will be responsible for fleet management and operations of the Waymo vehicles, including maintenance and infrastructure, such as vehicle charging, cleaning and repairs. 

Additionally, Waymo on Thursday announced that it will partner with mobility company Moove to manage its fleet operations, facilities and charging infrastructure in both Miami and Phoenix. Moove will begin managing Waymo’s Phoenix fleet in early 2025, a Waymo spokesperson said. 

Waymo closed a $5.6 billion funding round in October to expand its robotaxi service across the U.S. The autonomous vehicle venture’s parent company, Alphabet, which also owns Google, led the funding round alongside earlier backers, including Andreessen Horowitz, Fidelity, Perry Creek, Silver Lake, Tiger Global and T. Rowe Price.

The robotaxi company said it now sees more than 150,000 paid rides per week via the Waymo One app across San Francisco, Phoenix and Los Angeles. 

Waymo is the only autonomous vehicle developer that currently operates a commercial robotaxi service in several major metro areas across the U.S., but competitors are looming. 

GM-owned Cruise is working on bringing its autonomous vehicles back into use on public roads after discontinuing its services following an accident where one of its self-driving cars injured a pedestrian in San Francisco. 

Tesla, meanwhile, showed off design concepts for a self-driving Cybercab and Robovan at an event in October. However, Tesla still classifies the Autopilot and Full Self-Driving software in its vehicles as “partially automated driving systems,” which require a human to be ready to steer or brake at all times. In an October earnings call, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the company will launch a self-driving ride-hailing service in California and Texas as early as 2025.

SoftBank-funded Wayve is testing its autonomous vehicles in San Francisco, and Amazon-owned Zoox is also testing its self-driving cars, which do not feature steering wheels, in several U.S. cities.

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Waymo could benefit big from eased self-driving rules

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