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The UK’s jobless rate has risen by more than expected, raising questions over whether the new government’s early warnings on the state of the economy have backfired.

Official figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the unemployment rate at 4.3% over the three months to September.

That was higher than the 4.1% figure expected by economists and up on the 4% reported a month earlier.

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The data also showed that average regular earnings growth had fallen to its lowest level since April-June 2002, easing to 4.8% from 4.9%, though it continued to outstrip the pace of inflation.

Wider figures showed a fall, of 5,000, in the numbers in payrolled employment during the month of September.

Commentators on the economy suggested that the jobless rate figure could be a blip – a consequence of continuing poor engagement with the ONS Labour Force Survey which collects the information.

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They also said that the earnings growth rate – a key concern of the Bank of England’s in the inflation battle – was propped up only by public sector pay rises, suggesting that private sector awards were continuing to ease.

However, others said there could have been an influence from the new government’s claims, since late July, of a dire economic inheritance including a £22bn black hole in the public finances.

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July: Chancellor outlines ‘black hole’

Both Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and his chancellor, Rachel Reeves, stated widely during the election campaign their priority was boosting economic growth through a new partnership with business.

But they warned within weeks of taking office of “tough” decisions ahead, while taking some immediate action including cutting the universal winter fuel payment.

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‘Mini fiscal event was unnecessary’

A budget was slated for 30 October.

That first major fiscal event for Labour in 14 years, delivered three months after the gloomy messages first emanated from Downing Street, prompted a business backlash as it put employers firmly on the hook for part of a £40bn additional tax take.

The private sector has since warned that the measures, which include hikes to national insurance contributions by employers, will hit investment, hiring and pay awards, leaving all the talk of partnership with the government in serious doubt.

Danni Hewson, AJ Bell’s head of financial analysis, said of the ONS data: “This latest set of jobs data puts in black and white what businesses and workers have been feeling… Over the last few weeks, businesses have been warning that the increase in national insurance coupled with another chunky hike in the national living wage could result in job cuts.

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“Even before the budget, uncertainty about what taxes might rise eroded confidence and many employers pushed back investment decisions or halted hiring plans until they could assess the road ahead.”

Isaac Stell, investment manager at Wealth Club, said: “A pickup in the unemployment rate may start to ring alarm bells in the halls of Westminster as the rate for September exceeded expectations by some margin.

“This increase serves as a warning sign to the government following on from the budget where businesses saw a large increase in the level of national insurance contributions they will have to pay.

“If these additional costs restrict hiring and cause jobs to be lost, its so-called growth agenda will be further scrutinised,” he wrote.

Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said of the pay data: “While it’s encouraging to see real pay growth this month, more needs to be done to improve living standards too.

“So, from April next year, over three million of the lowest-paid workers will benefit from our increase to the national living wage.”

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Shell denies report of BP takeover talks

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Shell denies report of BP takeover talks

Shell has denied it is in talks with BP over a possible takeover of its smaller rival.

The Wall Street Journal, citing a number of sources, reported on Wednesday evening that discussions between the two UK-based energy firms were at an early, but active, stage.

The US publication added that BP was considering the approach.

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Its story was published soon after the London Stock Exchange had closed for the day, but US-listed depository shares in BP were 10% up in New York shortly after publication, while those for Shell were down.

However, Shell responded to the story by telling Sky News: “This is further market speculation. No talks are taking place.

“As we have said many times before, we are sharply focused on capturing the value of Shell through continuing to focus on performance, discipline and simplification.”

The rally for BP shares fell back in the wake of the statement. BP declined to comment.

The company has been widely seen as a possible takeover target for years, as its market value has lagged behind the growth of industry peers.

It was valued at nearly £59bn as of Wednesday, while Shell had a market capitalisation of over £153bn.

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The gulf between them has widened since 2020, when BP, under the then-chief executive Bernard Looney, embarked on a fundamental shift towards a green energy future.

The lofty ambitions were slowly chipped away following record leaps in oil and natural gas costs in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Much of the strategy was overturned in a reset by current boss Murray Auchincloss in February this year, under pressure from shareholders.

BP’s debt pile has been seen as a potential barrier to takeover interest.

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More Britons than ever struggling to make ends meet, report warns

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More Britons than ever struggling to make ends meet, report warns

More people than ever are struggling to live on their current income – while just a third say they are living comfortably, according to new research.

Rising prices and sluggish pay increases have put many people’s finances under strain in recent years.

A record 26% now say making ends meet is difficult. Before the pandemic, it was 16%.

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UK inflation slows to 3.4%

Two-thirds also say their incomes haven’t kept up with inflation, according to the British Social Attitudes report.

That’s only marginally better than the 70% recorded during the height of the cost of living crisis in 2023.

Frozen tax thresholds also appear to be hitting home, with 61% saying taxes on low earners are too high, while 44% believe middle income earners also pay too much.

Those figures are up nine points and 13 points respectively since 2016.

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However, when it comes to the highest earners, 44% believe their taxes are too low.

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Britain’s energy price problem

The report also asked people about the welfare system – a timely insight with Labour MPs currently rebelling over plans to save £5bn from the budget.

It found support for more spending on disability benefits is at a record low of 45%, down from 67% in 2017 – but only 11% think spending should be reduced.

About 29% of those polled think it’s “too easy” for people to get disability benefits – but the same percentage also feel it’s “too difficult”.

Meanwhile, long waiting times appear to have played a part in the finding that a record 59% are now dissatisfied with the NHS. In 2019, it was just 25%.

Only 21% said they were satisfied with the health service.

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Reeves pledges NHS funding

The report is based on a representative, random sample of more than 4,000 people in the UK and was produced by the National Centre for Social Research.

It’s the longest-running measure of public opinion in Britain, having started in 1983.

Professor Sir John Curtice, senior research fellow, said: “The public are well aware of Britain’s problems – not least those of a failing health service and an economy in which many are struggling to make ends meet.

“Yet rather than turning their back on the state, for the most part, the public are still inclined to look to government to provide solutions.”

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Defence was also a key theme of the report – and researchers found about 40% of Britons support spending more money on weapons and troops.

A fifth (20%) said they would like to see a reduction.

It comes as the government revealed it was buying at least 12 stealth jets that can carry nuclear weapons, and as NATO countries, including the UK, promise to increase defence spending.

The National Security Strategy also said the UK must prepare for the potential of a “wartime scenario” in the “UK homeland” for the first time in many years.

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Almost everyone surveyed (90%) considered Russia a serious threat to world peace, followed by Iran (78%), North Korea (77%), Israel (73%), and China (69%).

The percentage supporting more defence spending remains relatively unchanged since 2016, before Russia invaded Ukraine.

However, the share supporting an increase is significantly higher now than that in 2006 (28%) and in the 1990s (17%).

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Post Office scandal: Govt has not done enough to ensure compensation for victims, committee of MPs finds

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Post Office scandal: Govt has not done enough to ensure compensation for victims, committee of MPs finds

The government has not done enough to ensure all victims entitled to compensation from the Post Office scandal have applied for it, a report has found.

Many current and former postmasters affected by Horizon IT failings and associated miscarriages of justice are not yet receiving fair and timely compensation, according to the report by the Public Accounts Committee (PAC).

Only 21% of the 18,500 letters the Post Office sent to postmasters to make them aware of the Horizon Shortfall Scheme had been responded to, figures provided by the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) show. About 5,000 further letters are expected to be sent in 2025.

Under the scheme, current and former postmasters who were financially affected by the Horizon IT system, but who were either not convicted or did not take the Post Office to the High Court, can either settle their claim for a final fixed sum of £75,000 or have it fully assessed.

There is also the Horizon Convictions Redress Scheme (HCRS), which is for sub-postmasters who had their convictions quashed after the passing of the Post Office (Horizon System) Offences Act last year.

The 800 or so sub-postmasters who are eligible to claim under the HCRS are entitled to a £600,000 full and final settlement, or the option to pursue a full claim assessment.

By the end of March, 339 had accepted the settlement sum, the report by the PAC, which is made up of MPs from all sides of the House of Commons, found.

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But the PAC report states that the government has no plans to follow up with people who are, or may be, eligible to claim but are yet to apply.

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‘They knew software was faulty’

The committee recommends that the DBT should outline what more it will do to ensure every affected postmaster is fully aware of their options for claiming.

A third scheme provides compensation to sub-postmasters who were wrongly convicted of fraud, theft and false accounting.

Of the 111 sub-postmasters eligible to claim for the Overturned Convictions Scheme and who are either entitled to a £600,000 full and final settlement, or to pursue a full claim assessment, 25 have not yet submitted a claim, some of whom represent the most complex cases.

The DBT has taken over the management of the scheme from the Post Office, and the PAC report recommends that the department should outline how it plans to handle the remaining cases under the scheme.

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Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown MP, chair of the PAC, said thousands of people were “deeply failed” by the system during “one of the UK’s worst ever miscarriages of justice”.

He added: “This committee would have hoped to have found government laser-focused on ensuring all those eligible were fully and fairly compensated for what happened.

“It is deeply dissatisfactory to find these schemes still moving far too slowly, with no government plans to track down the majority of potential claimants who may not yet be aware of their proper entitlements.

“It is entirely unacceptable that those affected by this scandal, some of whom have had to go through the courts to clear their names, are being forced to relitigate their cases a second time.”

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