Connect with us

Published

on

SEATTLE — Dustin Wolf has faced a number of questions over the last seven years:

Is he really that good? Can a smaller goalie be trusted when every team wants a bigger option in net? Can he replicate his WHL success in the AHL? Can his AHL success be parlayed into giving the Calgary Flames a franchise goalie to win games and get into the playoffs?

Wolf now faces another question: Could he or someone else in this season’s rookie class become the first goalie in more than a decade to win the Calder Trophy?

“I had no idea,” Wolf said of the 15-year gap since the last Calder-winning goalie. “But you know what? My job is to try to stop as many pucks as I can and try to help the team win games. If the extra stuff comes along with that, then, it’s just an extra bonus.”

Steve Mason was the last goalie to win the Calder, in the 2008-09 season. Mason went 33-20-7 with a 2.27 goals-against average and a .916 save percentage, playing a crucial role in the Columbus Blue Jackets making the playoffs. Since then, the Calder has been a forward-centric award, with 11 of the last 15 winners being a center or a winger.

There have been two goaltenders who have finished second in Calder voting since Mason won the award: St. Louis Blues goalie Jordan Binnington in 2018-19 and Edmonton Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner in 2022-23. But there was a major gulf in first-place votes for Binnington (18 to Elias Pettersson‘s 151) and Skinner (24 to Matty Beniers‘ 160).

The Calder has been historically dominated by forwards. There are 62 forwards who have won the award, which was introduced during the 1932-33 season. By comparison, just 16 goalies have won. Yet the current 15-year gap since Mason won it is the longest gap. The previous long goalie-free streak was 12 years, from 1972 to 1984.

In the time since Mason won the Calder, the conversation surrounding goaltending continues to evolve.

There are more data points and metrics beyond traditional statistics that can be used to evaluate their performances. More front offices continue to use tandems rather than the conventional approach of one goalie playing more than 60 games. After having some drafts in the early 2000s that saw as many as four go in the first round, there are fewer goalies who are first-round picks. Even the economics around goalies is in flux, with teams investing anywhere between $1.8 million in cap space to $14.5 million.

Now there’s another talking point around the sport when it comes to goalies: Why hasn’t one won the Calder in 15 years?

“It’s really hard. You don’t see too many rookie goalies come in and just light it up right away,” 2022 Calder Trophy winner and Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar said. “You have to be set up in the right position. A lot of times rookie goalies don’t play on teams with the best defense and that doesn’t support their stats. I think there’s a lot of aspects that go into it.”


ESPN SPOKE TO an agent with clients who have won the Calder and/or were finalists, along with an experienced Calder voter, an NHL goalie coach and two Calder winners in former NHL goalie Andrew Raycroft and Makar.

They each provided various reasons for the current gap. Although, there was one common theme among the group: rookie goalies are at a major disadvantage when it comes to winning the public attention battle.

“I think a lot of it too is what you are going up against,” one NHL goaltending coach said. “That’s only going to make it harder for a goalie. Everybody right now is anticipating that players like Macklin Celebrini, Matvei Michkov, Will Smith — those high-end guys have been hyped going into the NHL and for good reason because they are great hockey players. You talk about those guys and you bring Dustin Wolf into the conversation. How much better does [Wolf] have to be?”

Following hockey prospects isn’t like following football recruiting. Collegiate and junior hockey broadcasts aren’t as easily accessible, and it’s even more difficult to watch prospects playing in Europe. In contrast, Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has received attention since getting his first scholarship offer in 2017 as a 16-year-old.

In hockey, the spotlight is brighter on non-goaltenders, as evidenced by last season’s Calder race. Chicago Blackhawks center Connor Bedard won, with Minnesota Wild defenseman Brock Faber finishing second and New Jersey Devils defenseman Luke Hughes third:

  • Bedard was long touted as the NHL’s next great generational talent. The 2023 draft was known as “The Bedard Draft” after he scored 100 points in his first full WHL season and followed up with 71 goals and 143 points entering his draft season. He also helped Canada to consecutive gold medal finishes at the IIHF World Junior Championships. He was then drafted by an Original Six team, and debuted just months after being drafted No. 1 in 2023.

  • Faber, a second-round pick in 2020, played for the United States National Team Development Program and at collegiate blue blood University of Minnesota, and was a two-time Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year before guiding the Gophers to the national title game. He also won gold for the United States at the WJC, and was a U.S. Olympian before playing for his hometown team in a state that’s considered to be synonymous with hockey.

  • Hughes, the No. 4 pick in 2021, was a standout in a family of standouts as his older brothers, Jack and Quinn, were also first-round picks. The youngest Hughes brother played for the USNTDP and a collegiate blueblood in the University of Michigan. Hughes was a two-time All-American who averaged more than a point per game as a sophomore. He helped the Wolverines reach consecutive Frozen Fours, and was in the NHL after two NCAA seasons.

As rookies, they maintained high profiles: Bedard was a top-line center who led the Blackhawks in several categories and was tied for first in goals. Faber played all 82 games in a top-pairing role, and was given copious power-play and short-handed minutes. Hughes was a top-four option who led the Devils in ice time, and was first among the team’s defensemen across several offensive categories.

Goaltenders are often presented with a different path when it comes to development, exposure and how long it takes to reach the NHL.

Between 2000 and 2009, 22 goalies were selected in the first round, including Rick DiPietro and Marc-Andre Fleury going No. 1. Since 2010, there have been only nine who went in the first round, with the highest going 11th. None of the goalies from the 2023 and 2024 draft classes have reached the NHL. There have been only 12 goaltenders who have played at least one NHL game since being selected in the 2020, 2021 and 2022 drafts.

One goalie who had a slightly quicker path to the NHL, with a higher profile, was Devon Levi. A seventh-round pick in 2020, Levi’s stock soared after his performances led Canada to finish second in 2021 at the WJC. He led Northeastern to a Hockey East regular-season title. Levi signed with the Buffalo Sabres after two college seasons, and went 5-2 in the final stretch of the 2022-23 season.

He was set up as a Calder contender in the same season as Bedard, Faber and Hughes — only to struggle throughout a 2023-24 campaign that led to him getting demoted to the AHL.

“I think there is something to be said that in this world of accelerated everything that kids who don’t play in the AHL are given more consideration for the Calder,” the agent said. “But the guys who have been up and down in the minors might have sort of gone through some of the rookie challenges in people’s minds.”

Raycroft, who won the Calder back in 2003-04, said it’s not just the visibility that No. 1 picks such as Bedard and Celebrini have received over the years that’s different. Those No. 1 picks are being used differently compared to when he played.

In Raycroft’s era, No. 1 picks such as Joe Thornton weren’t immediately trusted with top-line minutes or first-team power-play opportunities. With front offices now placing an emphasis on providing chances to their younger players, it’s allowing those elite prospects the chance to make an immediate impact.

Bedard proved he was a top-line center. During Beniers’ first full season with the Kraken, he was also a top-six center that was second in goals, fourth in assists and fourth in points for a playoff team. Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider, who won the Calder in 2022, emerged as a top-four option that led the team in ice time, assists and power-play points, and was one of three Red Wings to play all 82 games.

With young goalies, it’s a bit more complicated.

“That’s the biggest difference first and foremost. From the goaltending side of it, they bring up goalies a lot differently now,” Raycroft said. “Even Wolf played in the NHL last season — he was able to get some games. Someone like [Carolina Hurricanes goalie Pyotr] Kochetkov had his rookie of the year opportunity eaten up because he played over parts of two or three seasons.”


THE KOCHETKOV SITUATION might be one of the strongest examples of what makes the current Calder landscape challenging for goalies.

Kochetkov played twice during the 2021-22 season, with injuries opening the door for him to get more playing time in 2022-23 before he was sent back to the AHL. In 2023-24, Kochetkov was firmly entrenched as part of the Hurricanes’ plans. He started 40 games for a playoff team, and won 23 of them while having a 2.33 GAA along with a .911 save percentage.

Kochetkov was named to the All-Rookie Team, while finishing fourth in Calder voting.

“He had a winning record. His save percentage was not in the top three, but he was in the top three in GAA,” the goalie coach said. “But when you look at the big picture? He had 20-plus wins and I don’t know which one [voters] look at the most.”

The Calder is voted upon by the Professional Hockey Writers Association. The longtime voter said they use several items to evaluate skaters such as point production, ice time, role, special teams usage and shots because, “it indicates stick on puck and you are controlling the game.”

The voter said they’d have no problem voting for a goalie — with some caveats.

“If a goaltender took a mediocre team to the playoffs but played 44 games, I’d have a hard time casting my vote,” the voter explained. “But if he played 55 or 58 games, had a low GAA, a high save percentage and was in the top 5 in the league in those categories? They did something that was truly special — I’d have no problem casting a vote for them.”

Last season, there were only 10 goalies overall who played more than 55 games. Two of them were in the top five in GAA among those with more than 25 games, and only one goalie was in the top five in save percentage among those with more than 25 games.

The only goalie in the entire NHL who checked all of those boxes was Winnipeg Jets star Connor Hellebuyck, who won his second Vezina Trophy.

Faber, by comparison, was the only defenseman or forward of last season’s rookie class to finish in the top 10 of a major traditional statistical category. He was sixth in average ice time.

By that voter’s logic, does it appear that there’s a double standard for rookie goalies? Especially at a time in which more teams are moving toward tandems — and only four rookie goalies since 2010 have played in more than 55 games throughout a single season?

“I do feel like the bar has to be higher for a goalie,” the voter said. “I also think that’s going to make it harder for voters now. Goalies don’t play as many games anymore. With the league going to the 1A or 1B strategy, you rarely see a goaltender get over 55 games.”


BACK TO THE original question: Could any of this year’s rookie goaltenders end the Calder drought?

Dustin Wolf was a seventh-round pick who shattered expectations at every level before reaching the NHL, which makes him one of the higher-profile rookies of this particular class — and rookie goalies in recent history.

That allowed him to enter his first full rookie season under a spotlight. Playing a role in the Flames winning four straight games to start the 2024-25 season also helped. Although the Flames have since cooled, they remain a team that could emerge as a long-term challenger in the Western Conference wild-card race.

“He plays an eye-appealing style with his athleticism, and I think that could help him as opposed to being just a big blocker,” the agent said. “He’s going to have some highlight-reel saves, and I think that could help him too.”

While Wolf entered this season as the most well-known rookie goaltender, he’s part of a rookie class that could have more than one netminder in position to present a strong Calder case at season’s end.

Injuries and inconsistencies have led to the Avalanche trudging to a 8-8-0 start, with five of their wins coming when Justus Annunen has been in net. Annunen was a third-round pick in 2019, and has provided a sense of consistency that has been vital with the Avs weathering the first month without a handful of their top-nine forwards. The 2022 Stanley Cup champions are expected to reach the playoffs for what would be an eighth straight season, and Annunen may well be a critical part of that outcome.

Through the first month, Joel Blomqvist appears to have provided the Pittsburgh Penguins with a strong option in net as they also seek stability. The Penguins entered November allowing the most goals per game in the NHL. Through seven starts, the second-round pick from 2020 is averaging 29.5 saves per game, posting a .904 save percentage for a team that’s also in the top five in the most scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes, most shots allowed per 60 and most high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60, according to Natural Stat Trick. The Pens are one point outside of wild-card position in the East.

So could Annunen, Blomqvist or Wolf emerge to become one of the finalists in a Calder race that includes Celebrini, Michkov, Smith, Cutter Gauthier, Lane Hutson and Logan Stankoven?

Or does the streak extend to a not-so-sweet 16 years since a goalie won the Calder?

“One of these goaltenders who becomes a starter at Christmas and carries the team down the stretch and wins a division would help,” Raycroft said. “Not just being a wild-card team. That is prerequisite No. 1 to be in the mix for being the Rookie of the Year as a goaltender. Numbers will fall into place. I don’t think you can give it to a guy who is not on a playoff team.”

Continue Reading

Sports

National signing day live: Commits, flips, rumors and best moments

Published

on

By

National signing day live: Commits, flips, rumors and best moments

College football’s national signing day has kicked off with the early signing period. Class of 2025 high school recruits are now able to sign their national letters of intent to lock them into the colleges of their choice.

With 16 ESPN 300 commitments, Georgia starts the signing period with the No. 1 class in ESPN’s rankings. However, the top spot has not been locked down completely and has changed hands a few times this cycle. Most programs will sign the majority of their class this week, but recruiting is far from over. If a prospect doesn’t sign a national letter of intent by Friday, the next national signing day for this cycle begins Feb. 5, 2025.

We’re tracking the latest news, analysis, class rankings movement and more throughout Wednesday, with latest updates at the top:

coverage:
Class rankings: Top 50 schools
Last-minute intel, flips to watch

Continue Reading

Sports

CFP Anger Index: Why Ole Miss and Miami should both be furious over Bama’s ranking

Published

on

By

CFP Anger Index: Why Ole Miss and Miami should both be furious over Bama's ranking

At least in theory, 92% of the committee’s job should already be done.

It appears to be a given that Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Notre Dame and (probably) SMU and Indiana are in.

The winners of the Big 12 and Mountain West championship games are also in.

So, unless Clemson wins the ACC and closes out the field, that leaves one spot remaining with a host of teams offering compelling cases for inclusion.

But let’s start with something that should be obvious: The 12th team to make the field will be flawed. This isn’t a new phenomenon based on weak schedules or shocking losses. The No. 12 team in the ranking every year has its share of warts. That’s why it’s No. 12. We’re just used to arguing over a top four, not No. 12, so wrapping our heads around a playoff team with a loss to — oh, let’s say Vanderbilt — seems entirely wrong. When it comes to picking 12 teams, there will always be reasons to argue someone doesn’t belong or has done something so inexcusably awful they should be excluded without further debate.

But, of course, if that were true, Notre Dame would already be packing its bags for the Music City Bowl.

Instead, we should be viewing the process of picking the No. 12 team through an optimist’s lens. What have these teams done to earn their way in? Why should we believe they’re capable of — well, maybe not winning it all, but at least putting on a good show in the opening round? What’s the sales pitch for inclusion?

And when we view the decision through that lens, there are at least three reasonable, logical paths to follow.

But this is about a meeting of the College Football Playoff selection committee, where hotel security at the Gaylord Texan Hotel has explicit orders to keep reason and logic from stepping foot on the premises, and so, of course, the one team that isn’t left standing at the end of those logical pathways is exactly the team it has tabbed as the leader in the clubhouse: Alabama.

And that, friends, means a lot of programs have ample reason to be angry.

So, let’s walk down those logical pathways as a means of underscoring just how ridiculous the committee’s take on these rankings looks, bringing us to this week’s Anger Index.

There’s an Occam’s razor aspect to this conundrum that the committee should’ve considered: The simplest, most elegant solution is usually the right one.

This was the committee’s solution back in the first year of the playoff. In 2014, the committee was left to decide between 11-1 TCU and 11-1 Baylor. In the regular season, Baylor had beaten TCU head to head by 3 points, but the Bears also had a rather ugly 41-27 loss to West Virginia. The Big 12, at that time, didn’t have a conference championship game, leaving it to the committee to parse out who was more deserving of the No. 4 spot in the playoff.

The committee’s answer? Ohio State!

Baylor won its regular-season finale over No. 9 Kansas State by 11. TCU won its finale against Iowa State by 55-3. And yet the committee moved up 11-1 Ohio State to No. 4, bypassing both Big 12 schools. It was beautiful in its simplicity. Why make an impossible choice between Door No. 1 and Door No. 2 when Door No. 3 is already wide open?

This isn’t necessarily Miami’s best case for the final playoff slot, of course, but the fact that the Hurricanes are 10-2 and those SEC schools vying for the space are all 9-3 is the perfect opportunity for the committee to simply say, “This team has more wins,” the same way it said “Ohio State has a conference championship” as a completely reasonable justification for avoiding a tough call.

And it’s not as if Miami would be a bad choice. The Canes demolished Florida, a team that beat Ole Miss. The Canes demolished USF, a team that took Alabama into the fourth quarter in Tuscaloosa. The Canes have two road losses by a combined nine points against two pretty good teams — No. 22 Syracuse and a 7-5 Georgia Tech team that just took Georgia to eight overtimes (and probably should’ve won if the officials had been watching the game). QB Cam Ward is extraordinary, the offense is fun, the Canes can play with pretty much anyone, and none of their losses are bad. Isn’t that effectively South Carolina’s pitch?

So, yeah, giving the 12th playoff spot to Miami would’ve been an easy win for the committee. Instead, it chose pain.

Indeed, it docked Miami more spots for a road loss to the No. 22 team in the country than it did for Ohio State losing to 7-5 Michigan.


If the committee didn’t want to prioritize the simplest solution by going with the team with the best record, then certainly you’d think the argument came down to this: Not all wins are equal, and therefore we should choose the team that had proven the most on the field.

Well, folks, the answer to that question is absolutely Ole Miss.

Ole Miss and Alabama both beat South Carolina head to head, but the Rebels dominated their game, while the Tide snuck by with a two-point win.

Ole Miss and Alabama have the same best win, against No. 5 Georgia. But Alabama came within minutes of one of the most epic collapses in college football history, narrowly escaping with a seven-point win. Ole Miss, on the other hand, beat Georgia by 18 in a game that was never particularly close. In fact, do you know the last team to beat Georgia by more points than Ole Miss did this year? That would be the 2019 LSU Tigers, arguably the best college football team ever assembled.

Ole Miss is ranked higher in SP+, too. The Rebels are an analytics dream team, with one of the top offenses and defenses in the country statistically. SP+ has the Rebels at No. 3 — ahead of Texas! — while Alabama checks in at No. 5, Miami at No. 10 and South Carolina at No. 13.

OK, but what about strength of schedule? Doesn’t that favor Alabama? It does, but that metric isn’t exactly what it seems. According to ESPN, the Tide played the 17th-toughest schedule in the country, while Ole Miss played the 31st. That seems like a big difference, right? But when we look at the hard numbers rather than the ranking, the difference is only about 1% (Bama at 98.97 and Ole Miss at 97.66). That’s basically the difference between Alabama playing Western Kentucky and Ole Miss playing MTSU. Oh, and if strength of schedule really matters that much, South Carolina ranks ahead of both of them.

And let’s talk about that schedule, because it wasn’t the “strength” that proved to be Alabama’s undoing. The Tide lost to a pair of 6-6 teams. It was the mediocrity on their slate that killed them.

OK, yes, Ole Miss lost to a couple pretty average teams, too — 7-5 Florida and 4-8 Kentucky. But again, if the records were all that mattered to the committee, Miami would be in the playoff. So let’s compare SP+ rankings for those losses.

Alabama lost to SP+ Nos. 8, 31 and 58 for an average of 32.3.

Ole Miss lost to SP+ Nos. 17, 22 and 48 for an average of 29.0.

So, on average, the Rebels’ losses weren’t as bad as Alabama’s. Their wins were markedly better than Alabama’s. Their underlying stats are better than Alabama’s. Their schedule strength was effectively equal to Alabama’s.

So explain to us again why Ole Miss isn’t in the No. 11 slot, because we’re at a complete loss to understand it.


To be sure, there is not a logical argument in South Carolina’s favor. The Gamecocks have the same record as Alabama and Ole Miss and lost to both of them head to head. That, on its face, should eliminate South Carolina.

But, perhaps there’s a more emotional take here; an “eye test,” if you will.

Watch South Carolina over the past six games — all wins, including against Texas A&M, Missouri and Clemson (not to mention a dominant performance against an Oklahoma team that whipped Alabama) — and it’s pretty easy to suggest the Gamecocks are playing as well as any team in the country.

Now, back in the four-team playoff era, this wouldn’t have mattered at all. Go back and look at 2015 Stanford with Christian McCaffrey, which lost its opener to Northwestern before going on a roll and winning 11 of its next 12, or 2016 USC that started 1-3 and reeled off eight straight wins with a new QB. Those teams could’ve genuinely won it all if they had been given a ticket to the dance, but in those days, there was no room for the hottest team. Just the most deserving.

But no one truly deserving is left out if we include South Carolina now. Miami and Alabama and Ole Miss (and others) all have their arguments in favor of inclusion, but as we noted at the top, all have enough warts to miss out, too.

So why not take the team playing the best? How many times in the NFL playoffs have we seen a team that finished strong go on a run and win the Super Bowl? Are they any less a champion, because they lost a couple games in September?

South Carolina’s inclusion would be a boon for all the teams that grow as the season progresses, get better through coaching, hard work and perseverance, that overcome adversity and rise to meet the moment. In short, South Carolina is a feel-good story in a sport that should embrace that type of team.

Instead, the committee is embracing Darth Vader because the Empire holds a lot of sway over the galaxy.


Here’s a fun blind comparison.

Team A: 10-2, No. 12 strength of record, losses to SP+ Nos. 39 and 51 with best win against SP+ No. 12

Team B: 10-2, No. 14 strength of record, losses to SP+ Nos. 50 and 59 with best win against SP+ No. 18

Neither of these teams will play in their conference championship games.

If you had to pick one for the playoff, which would you take?

Well, the records are the same, but Team A seems to have the edge everywhere else, right?

OK, Team A is BYU.

Team B? That’s Miami.

We’re not arguing against Miami, but Miami checks in as the first team out. BYU checks in behind three-loss Clemson!

Perhaps the Cougars’ losses (to Arizona State and Kansas) are reason enough for exclusion (though by that logic, we should be waving goodbye to Alabama and Ole Miss, too), but the fact that BYU isn’t even in the conversation is ridiculous.


play

1:10

Booger: Committee on ‘slippery slope’ choosing Alabama over Miami

Booger McFarland and Joey Galloway discuss whether the CFP selection committee is making the right decision favoring Alabama over Miami.

We’ve laid out perfectly reasonable arguments for Miami, Ole Miss, South Carolina and BYU.

What’s the argument for Alabama?

Strength of schedule? South Carolina’s is better.

A big win vs. Georgia? Ole Miss beat the Dawgs by more.

Strength of record? That’s just a function of strength of schedule, and frankly any record that includes losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt — including one blowout — isn’t very “strong.”

Better stats? Ole Miss is rated higher in SP+, Miami’s offense is far more compelling, and South Carolina’s defense is, too.

So what exactly is the case for Alabama?

Committee chair Warde Manuel’s best attempt at an explanation: Alabama is 3-1 vs. the current top 25. That, of course, ignores that Miami has wins vs. the Nos. 1 and 3 teams in the AP’s others receiving votes list, and ranking 25 teams is an entirely arbitrary cutoff. And more importantly, it ignores that Alabama is also 6-2 vs. teams not in the current top 25.

No, the real case for Alabama is the same one the committee made last year, that it believes — in spite of any hard evidence — that Alabama is just better. It believes Alabama would win a future hypothetical matchup. It is prioritizing a gut feeling.

We can criticize the committee for a lot of things, but most of it is hair-splitting, and the folks on the committee have a particularly tough job. We’re sympathetic. But when this group continually — year after year (yes, we’re talking to you, Florida State) — ignores what happens in the actual games on the actual field of play in favor of its own projections, that threatens to undermine the entire sport, and that’s a shame.

Is Alabama a good football team? Sure. If the Tide get in, could they win a game or two or the whole darn thing? Absolutely. But if that’s the criteria, then there was no need for Alabama’s players to suit up 12 times this year and go to battle, and that’s an insult to them — even if it means handing them a gift in the process.


We’ve argued a bunch over the No. 12 team, but there’s another debate rolling in the college football world, and that involves conference championships.

The debate has largely centered on SMU and whether the Mustangs, if they lose the ACC title to Clemson, should be reevaluated if they’re 11-2 (particularly if Clemson is stealing a playoff bid).

It’s a reasonable discussion. On one hand, there is precedent. Just two years ago, USC entered conference championship week ranked No. 4, only to lose in a blowout to Utah. The committee dropped the Trojans to No. 10 and rewarded Ohio State — a team that was sitting at home and watching championship weekend — with a playoff berth. At the time, virtually no one even mentioned this. It made logical sense.

But in the 12-team era, when there should ostensibly be a larger margin for error, it seems entirely wrong to suggest a team that won the right to play an extra game should then have that extra data point held against it to the point that it falls out of the playoff field. (And, oh, how ironic would it be if Lane Kiffin complained about this very possibility, suggesting it was better to miss the SEC title game, only to have Kiffin’s team get in as a result of missing the SEC championship and SMU losing the ACC championship.)

But the big point being missed here is that the discussion shouldn’t stop with SMU. What about Boise State?

The Broncos are currently one of the four teams set to get first-round byes because of an 11-1 record, a head-to-head win over UNLV and a largely dominant season. But if they lose a rematch to UNLV — a team it has already beaten once — then the Broncos would be out of the playoff entirely.

Is that fair?

Well, here’s another comparison.

Team A: 11-1, No. 13 strength of record, loss to a top-10 team by 3, four wins vs. bowl-eligible opponents and one win vs. a currently ranked foe.

Team B: 11-1, No. 8 strength of record, loss to a top-10 team by 23, three wins vs. bowl-eligible opponents and no wins vs. currently ranked foes.

It should be noted here that the schedule strength difference between the two is about an 8% margin — notable, but not significant.

Who would you say was more deserving of a playoff bid?

Team A, as you might’ve guessed, is Boise State.

Team B is ranked one spot ahead of the Broncos. It’s Indiana, a team that won’t play another game and is considered safely in.

So, why exactly is Boise State not also safely in right now?

It’s a question the committee should be asking.

Also angry this week: Duke Blue Devils (9-3, unranked), Missouri Tigers (9-3, No. 19), Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3, No. 21), Georgia Bulldogs (who were docked far worse for losses against Ole Miss and Alabama than Ohio State was for losing to 7-5 Michigan), Tennessee Volunteers (10-2, No. 7 and should have the first-round home game being handed to Ohio State) and Ryan Day, because life is really unfair sometimes.

Continue Reading

Sports

Crimson Tide land at No. 11 in the CFP rankings

Published

on

By

Crimson Tide land at No. 11 in the CFP rankings

Barring an upset in Saturday’s ACC championship game between Clemson and SMU, Alabama might be headed back to the College Football Playoff for the ninth time in the past 11 seasons.

The Crimson Tide were ranked No. 11 in the CFP selection committee’s penultimate rankings on Tuesday, one spot ahead of Miami. The Tide lost three times under first-year coach Kalen DeBoer, including an unsightly 24-3 defeat at Oklahoma on Nov. 23.

The Hurricanes suffered their second defeat of the season on Saturday, 42-38 at Syracuse. Miami would be the first team left out of the 12-team playoff based on the current rankings because the fifth-highest-rated conference champion would jump it.

Since neither Alabama nor Miami qualified for their respective conference championship games, it would seem the Hurricanes would have a difficult time jumping the Tide in the final rankings, which will be released by the selection committee on Sunday.

CFP selection committee chairman Warde Manuel said on ESPN’s rankings release show Tuesday night that teams not competing in championship games this weekend, including Alabama and Miami, wouldn’t have their rankings changed because they’re not playing another game.

“Any team that is not playing right now, we don’t have a data point to rearrange where we have those teams ranked, and so that is set in terms of how we see them going into the final week of championship week,” Manuel said. “There’s nothing that’s going to change for us to evaluate them any differently than we have now.

“Those teams who are not playing cannot be adjusted in terms of where they are compared to other teams that are not playing, but the championship [game] teams we will evaluate that data point to determine if there needs to be any movement, based on how the performance of the game goes.”

Manuel noted that Alabama is 3-1 against teams ranked by the committee, while Miami is 0-1. The Tide are 6-1 against opponents with winning records, while the Hurricanes are 4-2.

“Both have had some losses that weren’t what they wanted out of those games, but in the last three games, Miami has lost twice, and so for us, in evaluating that body of work, we felt that Alabama got the edge over Miami,” Manuel said.

Undefeated Oregon remained No. 1 in the selection committee’s rankings, followed by Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame and Georgia.

Ohio State, which was on the wrong end of a stunning 13-10 loss to Michigan at home on Saturday, fell four spots to No. 6. Tennessee, SMU, Indiana and Boise State rounded out the top 10.

After Alabama and Miami, Ole Miss was No. 13 and South Carolina was No. 14.

Based on the current rankings, the top four conference champions that would receive first-round byes in the 12-team bracket are Oregon, Texas, SMU and Boise State.

If Boise State loses to UNLV in Friday’s Mountain West Conference championship game, the winner of Saturday’s Big 12 championship game between No. 15 Arizona State and No. 16 Iowa State would probably be the fourth-highest-rated conference champion.

The first-round matchups, based on the current rankings, would look like this: No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Penn State; No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Notre Dame; No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Georgia; and No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State.

“It could change. It all depends on the outcome of these [conference championship] games,” Manuel said. “As we have said, we have high regard for those who are playing in those conference championships.”

Alabama might not be completely out of the woods, however, should Clemson beat SMU in Saturday’s ACC championship game. If the Tigers were to secure the ACC’s automatic bid, the selection committee would have to decide whether to include the 11-2 Mustangs or the 9-3 Crimson Tide.

Miami coach Mario Cristobal had argued this week that the Hurricanes (10-2) were deserving because they’d lost fewer games than other teams under consideration for one of the final at-large bids.

“We won 10 games this year and not many teams have,” Cristobal said Tuesday in his weekly appearance on WQAM, the Hurricanes’ flagship radio station. “And in our losses, those losses came down to one possession. That’s a very different résumé than the 9-3 teams’. The awards should go to the teams that are actually winning the games, not the ones that are politicking themselves out of losses.”

The Hurricanes, as Manuel alluded to, lost two of their last three games — they also fell 28-23 at Georgia Tech on Nov. 9 — and they didn’t beat a team currently ranked by the CFP.

Along with losing at Oklahoma, the Crimson Tide fell 40-35 at Vanderbilt and 24-17 at Tennessee. Alabama did defeat three teams ranked by the CFP this week: Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri.

“We’re one of the 12 best teams, the way we see it,” DeBoer said on “The Pat McAfee Show” on Tuesday.

The committee ranked the Tide higher than two other SEC teams with three losses: Ole Miss and South Carolina. (The Gamecocks have won six games in a row.)

Iowa State was No. 16 in the CFP rankings, followed by Clemson, BYU, Missouri and UNLV. Illinois, Syracuse, Colorado, Army and Memphis closed the top 25.

Army returned to the rankings, while Syracuse and Memphis are ranked for the first time this season. Tulane, Texas A&M and Kansas State fell out of the top 25 after losing last week.

The four first-round games will be played at the home campus of each higher-seeded team on Dec. 20 and 21.

The four quarterfinal games will be staged at the VRBO Fiesta Bowl, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

The two semifinal games will take place at the Capital One Orange Bowl and Goodyear Cotton Bowl on Jan. 9 and 10.

The CFP National Championship presented by AT&T is scheduled for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Continue Reading

Trending