A pump jack in Midland, Texas, US, on Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024.
Anthony Prieto | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Oil prices may see a drastic fall in the event that oil alliance OPEC+ unwinds its existing output cuts, said market watchers who are predicting a bearish year ahead for crude.
“There is more fear about 2025’s oil prices than there has been since years — any year I can remember, since the Arab Spring,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, an oil price reporting agency.
“You could get down to $30 or $40 a barrel if OPEC unwound and didn’t have any kind of real agreement to rein in production. They’ve seen their market share really dwindle through the years,” Kloza added.
A decline to $40 a barrel would mean around a 40% erasure of current crude prices. Global benchmark Brent is currently trading at $72 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures are around $68 per barrel.
Oil prices year-to-date
Given that oil demand growth next year probably won’t be much more than 1 million barrels a day, a full unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts in 2025 would “undoubtedly see a very steep slide in crude prices, possibly toward $40 a barrel,” Henning Gloystein, head of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, told CNBC.
Similarly, MST Marquee’s senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic posited that should OPEC+ unwind cuts without regard to demand, it would “effectively amount to a price war over market share that could send oil to lows not seen since Covid.”
However, the alliance is more likely to opt for a gradual unwinding early next year, compared to a full scale and immediate one, the analysts said.
Should the producers group proceed with their production plan, the market surplus could nearly double.
Martoccia Francesco
Energy strategist at Citi
The oil cartel has been exercising discipline in maintaining its voluntary output cuts, to the point of extending them.
In September, OPEC+ postponed plans to begin gradually rolling back on the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts by two months in an effort to stem the slide of oil prices. The 2.2 million bpd cut, which was implemented over the second and third quarters, had been due to expire at the end of September.
At the start of this month, the oil cartel again decided to delay the planned oil output increase by another month to the end of December.
Oil prices have been weighed by a sluggish post-Covid recovery in demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy and leading crude oil importer. In its monthly report released Tuesday, OPEC lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 1.6 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day.
The pressured prices were also conflagrated by a perceivably oversupplied market, especially as key oil producers outside the OPEC alliance like the U.S., Canada, Guyana and Brazil are also planning to add supply, Gloystein highlighted.
Bearish year ahead for oil
The market consensus is that there’ll be a “substantial” oil stock build next year, said Citibank energy strategist Martoccia Francesco.
“Should the producers group proceed with their production plan, the market surplus could nearly double… reaching as much as 1.6 million barrels per day,” said Francesco.
Even if OPEC+ doesn’t unwind the cuts, the future ofl prices is still looking break. Citi analysts expect Brent price to average $60 per barrel next year.
Further fueling the bearish outlook is the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, whose return is associated by some with a potential trade war, said analysts who spoke to CNBC.
“If we do get a trade war — and a lot of economists think that a trade war is possible, and particularly against China — we could see much, much lower prices,” said OPIS’ Kloza.
For that to happen to retail gasoline prices, oil would need to drop to “below $40” per barrel, said Matt Smith, Kpler’s lead oil analyst.
Right now, retail gasoline prices are at a “sweet spot” at $3 per gallon, where consumers do not feel the pinch and input prices are still sufficiently high for producers, Smith added.
In what couldn’t have been more on-the-nose timing, a group of local California newspapers published an editorial on Christmas Eve calling for the end of a generous $2,000 voucher program intended to help low-income Californians afford electric bicycles for transportation.
The editorial was provided by the Southern California News Group, a collection of California newspapers owned by the hedge fund Alden Global Capital.
In it, the writers air a number of grievances against the program, which recently closed its first round of applications intended to provide around 1,500 e-bike vouchers of between US $1,750 to $2,000 each. The vouchers can be used to offset the price of electric bicycles and associated gear such as protective equipment, locks, etc.
The first complaint in the op-ed is that the total number of vouchers provided in the first round was relatively small compared to the large size of the California e-bike market. However, instead of suggesting that the budget be increased to help more Californians achieve transportation independence, as we called for recently, the editorial takes the opposite position of suggesting that the program simply be canceled.
Next, the writers bemoan an increase in electric bicycle and electric scooter accidents in recent years, suggesting that this should be weighed against the benefits of helping more Californians afford such vehicles.
However, the argument seems to conveniently overlook the fact that the vast majority of such accidents aren’t caused by e-bike riders, but rather those riders are in fact usually the victims. The actual danger to safety on roads is vehicular traffic, i.e. cars and trucks.
Furthermore, many studies have shown that in crashes caused by e-bike riders, such as when an e-bike rider hits another cyclist or pedestrian, the injuries are on average considerably lighter and more recoverable than in car-related crashes.
If the goal was to protect Californians, then instead of firmly clutching their pearls, perhaps the editorial writers should have urged a reduction in the use of cars and trucks, not a reduction in e-bike vouchers.
The op-ed even goes on to lament the number of children riding electric bicycles in California, though admits further on that children aren’t eligible to receive vouchers as part of California’s e-bike incentive program.
Electrek’s Take
California’s e-bike incentive program is certainly far from perfect. We even discussed many of its shortcomings last week. But the program’s essence is to do a good thing—using public tax money to benefit the public. The solution should be to improve the program, not to remove it. And the simple fact of the matter is that most people who are vehemently against the program are those who don’t directly benefit from it, even if they fail to realize that they will ultimately indirectly benefit.
Electric bicycles are one of the most cost-effective ways to provide transportation independence to marginalized and low-income groups. But it’s more than just that. They’re also the best way to get people out of cars and reduce traffic for everyone. Even ignoring the long-term environmental effects related to reducing the impacts of climate change, e-bikes are uniquely capable of making a larger impact on air quality today by helping to remove sources of emissions from a vehicle’s production all the way through its lifetime use and even to its eventual disposal/recycling. When someone rides an e-bike instead of taking a car, taxi, or bus, everyone’s lungs benefit.
Sure, the California program isn’t perfect. But if a media group owned by a wealthy hedgefund and catering to a well-to-do readership doesn’t like it, then that means it’s probably doing something helpful to people who actually need it. That’s the kind of world I want to live in, at least for as long as it’s still liveable.
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On today’s high-powered episode of Quick Charge, we’ve got Honda fuel cell manager David Perzynski here to talk about Honda’s forty year history developing hydrogen powertrains, and the role Honda sees for HFCEVs in a battery dominated world.
In the course of the conversation we talk about several hydrogen articles posted in 2024, as well as some Honda projects related to CES. You’ll be able to read more about those, below. Enjoy!
New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonus audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news!
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Sixthreezero’s wide range of electric bike models includes some fairly out-there models, but the company’s new four-wheeled electric bike really charts a new direction in the industry. Take a look at the new ANYterrain Stabilized 4-wheel Electric Bike.
It’s a mouthful of a name, but the ANYterrain Stabilized 4-wheel Electric Bike hauls more than just a bunch of extra words. The bike is rated to carry up to 350 lb (159 kg), and the 750W motor ensures it has the power to do so. With speeds of up to 20 mph (32 km/h), the quad bike is just as fast as most Class 1 and 2 e-bikes.
But the real game changer here is the design, offering four-wheeled stability that riders can’t get from a conventional three-wheeled trike.
Not only do four wheels provide better stability with a wider footprint, but the steering on the bike uses leaning geometry to take turns more naturally, helping riders feel even more stable.
With 20″ wheels in the rear and 16″ wheels in the front, the quad bike keeps a fairly low center of gravity. All four wheels use 4″ fat tires for better offroad riding and more comfortable shock absorption compared to narrow tires, and the rear wheels even feature a differential to better apply the motor’s power to the ground.
A twist throttle makes it easy to roll on that power, and a D/R switch on the bars lets riders put it in reverse for cases where they need a little help wiggling around in tight spaces. Pedaling backward from a stop can also engage the reverse. At 120 lbs (54 kg), this isn’t the type of bike you can just pick up and move around the garage without a little help so that reverse feature will likely come in handy.
A 48V and 20Ah battery offers 960Wh of capacity, which the company says translates into a range of up to 50 miles (80 km).
The battery is housed under a cargo basket in the rear, though a bench seat can be swapped for the basket, allowing riders to carry a passenger with them.
Electrek’s Take
This certainly won’t be a mass market type of e-bike, but I can see a real use case for neighborhood riding and local errands, especially for folks who don’t feel stable on a bicycle or even a trike.
Despite trikes offering great stability when going straight, some people can feel uncomfortable making turns on a trike, especially at higher speeds, because they can sometimes feel tippy under certain scenarios. This quad bike can still tip if you take a turn sharp enough, but the wider stance combined with the leaning steering means riders will even more stable than on a trike.
And since this will likely be used more by older riders, the reverse is an important feature for letting folks park the bike easily without dismounting and dragging it around.
There could be some legal hurdles in some areas that define “bicycles” as having either two or three wheels, but I’m guessing most cops aren’t jumping at the opportunity to ticket grandma for riding her quad bike on the local rails to trails network.
I love seeing more options like this, and I commend Sixthreezero for providing such interesting options to add to the market.
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