Connect with us

Published

on

A pump jack in Midland, Texas, US, on Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024. 

Anthony Prieto | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Oil prices may see a drastic fall in the event that oil alliance OPEC+ unwinds its existing output cuts, said market watchers who are predicting a bearish year ahead for crude.

“There is more fear about 2025’s oil prices than there has been since years — any year I can remember, since the Arab Spring,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, an oil price reporting agency.

“You could get down to $30 or $40 a barrel if OPEC unwound and didn’t have any kind of real agreement to rein in production. They’ve seen their market share really dwindle through the years,” Kloza added.

A decline to $40 a barrel would mean around a 40% erasure of current crude prices. Global benchmark Brent is currently trading at $72 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures are around $68 per barrel.

Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

hide content

Oil prices year-to-date

Given that oil demand growth next year probably won’t be much more than 1 million barrels a day, a full unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts in 2025 would “undoubtedly see a very steep slide in crude prices, possibly toward $40 a barrel,” Henning Gloystein, head of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, told CNBC. 

Similarly, MST Marquee’s senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic posited that should OPEC+ unwind cuts without regard to demand, it would “effectively amount to a price war over market share that could send oil to lows not seen since Covid.”

However, the alliance is more likely to opt for a gradual unwinding early next year, compared to a full scale and immediate one, the analysts said.

Should the producers group proceed with their production plan, the market surplus could nearly double.

Martoccia Francesco

Energy strategist at Citi

The oil cartel has been exercising discipline in maintaining its voluntary output cuts, to the point of extending them.

In September, OPEC+ postponed plans to begin gradually rolling back on the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts by two months in an effort to stem the slide of oil prices. The 2.2 million bpd cut, which was implemented over the second and third quarters, had been due to expire at the end of September. 

At the start of this month, the oil cartel again decided to delay the planned oil output increase by another month to the end of December.

Oil prices have been weighed by a sluggish post-Covid recovery in demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy and leading crude oil importer. In its monthly report released Tuesday, OPEC lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 1.6 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day.

The pressured prices were also conflagrated by a perceivably oversupplied market, especially as key oil producers outside the OPEC alliance like the U.S., Canada, Guyana and Brazil are also planning to add supply, Gloystein highlighted.

Bearish year ahead for oil

Continue Reading

Environment

BYD is selling more EVs than ever, so why is it trimming production in China?

Published

on

By

BYD is selling more EVs than ever, so why is it trimming production in China?

BYD is coming off its best sales month of the year after slashing EV prices in late May. However, it may not be enough, as several sources claim BYD is cutting production in China due to slowing sales.

Why is BYD cutting EV production in China?

With nearly 382,476 new energy vehicles (NEVs) sold globally in May, BYD notched its best sales month of 2025.

Like most carmakers in China, BYD reports monthly NEV sales, which include fully electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs).

BYD’s sales are up 39% through the first five months of the year, with over 1.76 million NEVs sold worldwide. Not including its commercial vehicles, BYD’s passenger vehicle sales are up 37% through May, with over 1.73 million units sold.

Advertisement – scroll for more content

Its battery-electric vehicles (EVs) are leading the growth, with sales up 40% through the first five months of 2025 compared to the same period last year.

According to a few sources, it may still not be enough as BYD vehicles begin to pile up in China. Two people close to the matter told Reuters on Wednesday that BYD has trimmed production at several factories in China. It’s also reportedly delaying plans to add lines to expand output.

BYD-cutting-EV-production
BYD Seagull EV testing with God’s Eye C smart driving system (Source: BYD)

The sources claimed that BYD has cut night shifts and reduced capacity at some plants by at least a third as it faces rising inventory.

Although BYD has yet to confirm, one of the sources reported that at least four BYD plants are now operating at a slower pace.

One source said that the move was aimed at cutting costs and improving efficiency, while the other claimed it was due to BYD failing to meet its sales target.

BYD-cutting-EV-production
(Source: BYD)

If true, the claims could be pretty significant, given BYD’s aggressive price cuts last month. On May 23, BYD slashed prices by up to 34% on 22 of its vehicles.

BYD still expects to sell around 5.5 million vehicles this year, a nearly 30% increase from 2024. Last year, BYD sold over 4.72 million NEVs, up 41% from 2023. However, its annual growth rate has slowed over the past few years.

BYD-EVs-Europe
BYD “Xi’an” car carrier loading Dolphin Surf EVs for Europe (Source: BYD)

According to data from CnEVPost, BYD’s annual sales growth rate has declined from 218% in 2021 to 208% in 2022 and 62% in 2023.

A survey from the China Automotive Dealer Association last month found that BYD dealers held one of the highest inventory levels, with an average of 3.21 months. In comparison, the industry-wide average was 1.38 months.

Electrek’s Take

With an intensifying EV price war and a wave of low-cost domestic cars flooding the market, Chinese automakers, including BYD, are now looking overseas to drive growth.

BYD is coming off its sixth straight month with record overseas sales in May after selling over 89,000 NEVs outside of China.

After it topped Tesla in monthly vehicle registrations in Europe and the UK this year, BYD launched its most affordable EV earlier this month. The Dolphin Surf is the European version of its top-selling Seagull EV, which can be bought for under $8,000 in China right now.

BYD’s Dolphin Surf arrives as one of the most affordable vehicles in the UK, starting at just £18,650 (about $25,000).

During the launch event, BYD’s special advisor for Europe, Alfredo Altavilla, called (via Autocar) the Dolphin Surf “the missing piece in the A/B-segment.”

According to Altavilla, BYD is launching vehicles in Europe at a faster rate than any other carmaker. “I have zero problem in saying I don’t think there has ever been such a product offensive done in Europe as the one BYD is doing,” he said during the event.

BYD’s sales are expected to double in Europe this year to around 186,000 units. By 2029, S&P Global Mobility forecasts BYD’s sales could reach around 400,000 in Europe. Between its new plants in Hungary and Turkey, BYD is expected to have a combined annual production capacity of over 500,000 units.

And Europe is just one global market. BYD is already a leading EV brand in overseas markets like Brazil, Thailand, Australia, and several other key markets.

Even if the sources’ claims that BYD is cutting production in China are true, the world’s leading EV maker is still expected to see significant growth overseas over the next few years.

FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.

Continue Reading

Environment

Major US e-bike brand pushes update to boost its bikes’ power

Published

on

By

Major US e-bike brand pushes update to boost its bikes' power

Aventon, one of the main electric bike makers in the US market, is quietly leveling up the power of its e-bike line, all without needing to buy a new bike. The brand announced yesterday that an over-the-air firmware rollout would activate a new Boost Mode on all its ACU-equipped hub-drive bikes.

According to the company, the update would result in a 20% surge in torque and peak power for up to 30 seconds. The new Boost Mode works in both throttle and pedal-assist riding.

Accessible through Aventon ’s app, Boost Mode gives riders a temporary burst of power in any riding condition, whether tackling a brutal hill or hauling serious cargo while getting rolling after a red light.

That 20% boost might not sound earth-shattering, but on a steep grade or under heavy load, it translates to meaningful assist: stronger acceleration, easier climbs, and more confidence for riders trying to get rolling quickly.

Advertisement – scroll for more content

Once triggered via the mode selector, riders get a 30-second power window followed by a built-in cooldown to keep things reliable.

The update was announced in an email to Aventon’s rider community, though the performance increase included a humorous typo promising “20x” the power instead of 20% more power, which would have worked out to a power level roughly equivalent to a mid-range Zero electric motorcycle.

It looks like they meant to write “20%”, not “20x”

Aventon’s latest generation of smart bikes already come loaded with connectivity features like GPS tracking, anti-theft alarms, and remote locking thanks to the ACU (Aventon Control Unit). But until now, ride performance was limited to what came in the box.

Boost Mode changes that by allowing Aventon to push new power curves directly to riders’ bikes – no hardware swap required. It’s an interesting move that keeps older models feeling fresh and functional, achieving what many manufacturers only promise when launching a new model with claimed OTA update functionality.

JW Zhang, Aventon’s CEO, summed it up: “We’re excited to deliver more features and performance to our riders and continue to lead the category in ride experience and value and technology. When we launched our first ACU bike we promised there was room for additional features and this is just the beginning.”

Just the beginning, you say? Do tell…

FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.

Continue Reading

Environment

U.S. crude oil rises 1% after steep selloff following Israel-Iran ceasefire

Published

on

By

U.S. crude oil rises 1% after steep selloff following Israel-Iran ceasefire

Iran-Israel worries about cessation of oil flows were overstated: CSIS' Clay Seigle

U.S. crude oil futures rose 1% on Wednesday, after the Iran-Israel ceasefire triggered a steep selloff earlier this week.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures contracts rose 65 cents, or 1.01%, $65.02 per barrel by 9:00 a.m. ET. Global benchmark Brent was last up 69 cents, or 1.03%, at $67.83 per barrel.

Prices briefly jumped to five-month highs after the U.S. bombed three nuclear sites in Iran over the weekend. But futures rapidly sold off on Monday and Tuesday after Iran held back from targeting regional crude supplies, and President Donald Trump pushed Jerusalem and Tehran into a truce.

“With the announcement of a ceasefire [Monday], President Trump called time on the twelve-day Israel-Iran war after successfully executing an escalate to de-escalate strategy,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told clients in a note Tuesday.

“The worst appears over for now,” Croft said, “though the truce still remains fragile.”

Catch up on the latest energy news from CNBC Pro:

Continue Reading

Trending