From ‘beached whale’ to contender, inside Tulane’s turnaround
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2 months agoon
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Pete Thamel, ESPNNov 15, 2024, 10:30 AM ET
Close- College Football Senior Writer for ESPN. Insider for College Gameday.
NEW ORLEANS — Considering that half-century in the college football netherworld, Tulane is amid what can only be considered a football renaissance. Spearheaded by former coach Willie Fritz and perpetuated by first-year coach Jon Sumrall, Tulane has won the American Athletic Conference (2022), beaten USC in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and is ranked No. 25 in the College Football Playoff rankings.
Few could have projected Tulane’s place in the national conversation before the recent surge, as Tulane (8-2) looms as an improbable contender — along with No. 13 Boise State and No. 24 Army — for the CFP bid that goes to the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion.
“They were a beached whale for a lot of years and decades,” former Tulane athletic director Kevin White told ESPN. “The schizophrenia from the campus community was real, relative to college athletics. You’d put on a helmet and shoulder pads when you went to the board meetings.”
These days, the helmets and shoulder pads are saved for the games.
And Tulane has a coach in Sumrall, 42, who is considered to be one the most promising in the sport and embodies the institution’s grander ambitions that come with the taste of success.
And that puts Tulane in a compelling place as a university, as it’s seeing the benefits of recent football relevance and pondering the investments required to stay in the mix and, someday, position itself for a power conference.
“To be able to sustain success is really rewarding, I think, for everybody involved,” Sumrall said in his office last week. “Our players, our staff and the university as a whole, the challenges that come with mid-major football Group of 5 football if you will. Anytime right now you feel like a coach leaves, you’re like, ‘All right, this could go really bad.’ But we’re very fortunate to, things have stabilized.”
Tulane is undefeated in the AAC and a win at Navy (7-2) on Saturday (noon ET on ESPN2) would clinch a spot in the program’s third consecutive conference title game. Tulane beat UCF two years ago, lost to SMU last season and would play Army with a win Saturday.
That type of consistent success — as often happens at the mid-major level — has led to turnover. Athletic director Troy Dannen left for Washington (then soon again for Nebraska) after hiring Fritz in December 2015 and building the program with him. Fritz left for Houston after going 23-4 his final two seasons and beating USC in the Cotton Bowl following the 2022 season.
And Tulane has found itself institutionally trying to both sustain and maximize the success. It hired Huron Consulting, of which White is a senior adviser, to do what COO Patrick Norton calls a “basic diagnosis” of the athletic department.
“[Athletics is] really important to our brand,” Norton said. “Now, how do we capitalize on that? That’s still, I think, in some ways to be determined. I mean, this is fairly recent for us, success from the Cotton Bowl, which was really an amazing experience for the university. One that we hadn’t gone through in a very, very long time.”
One of the clearest signs of Tulane’s football aspirations came immediately after last season. In the wake of Fritz’s departure to Houston and in essentially athletic director David Harris’ first week on the job, they lured the hottest coach in the Sun Belt. Sumrall had won back-to-back league titles at Troy while going 23-4, and drew interest in the last cycle from Texas A&M and Mississippi State.
Sumrall agreed to a six-year deal that’s believed to be near the top of the AAC. For a place that lagged behind so far and for so long, Harris’ immediate aggression and commitment showed that Tulane didn’t want to drift off the map for another half-century.
“Jon has had a great impact on us,” Harris told ESPN. “I think his name and his success coming in the door gave what we were continuing to try to build here at Tulane, immediate credibility because people knew his background, his success, what he had been able to do at Troy, the connection that he had had here [as a former assistant].”
To remain in the conversation for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, Tulane will need to keep winning and get help from some of Boise State’s Mountain West foes. But it’s entirely viable, and a testament to the school’s ability to maintain through significant turnover.
Tulane’s place in the national conversation is a fitting dividend from it’s increased investment in football. It was an object of the desire of the Pac-12 and continued success could vault it into conversations as leagues remain in flux.
Norton said that the travel in the Pac-12 loomed as an issue for Tulane and the school didn’t see a certain financial benefit from a move.
“We were leaving something that is more certain to less certain,” Norton said, “and frankly, it’s not the Pac-12 that we always knew, that we grew up with that John Wooden and UCLA and USC. It just wasn’t the same. I’m not saying that these schools aren’t solid, very good schools, but it’s not the same. And it was different than what we wanted, and so I think the decision wasn’t that hard, but we listened.”
But being courted by a league is a sign of Tulane’s evolution and success in athletics. And Sumrall said he has felt the support.
“I think that the readiness and the commitment is real,” Sumrall said. “I think that the university is seeing what football can do for the university. It’s galvanized so many people and I think it’s created a lot of exposure, and I think that that only empowers the desire to maybe help it grow even further.”
Sumrall spent three as an assistant coach at Tulane from 2012-14. He loved the city, watched guys like Leonard Fournette and Odell Beckham Jr. play high school ball. He loved the culture of the city — his favorite steakhouse is Mr. John’s down on St. Charles Avenue, and he has dabbled with the alligator cheesecake at Jacques-Imo’s. He always thought the collision of local talent and the city’s uniqueness could yield big dividends for a program stuck in neutral so long.
“So to me, that mixture of things was something that stood out to me when I was here previously,” Sumrall said. “And then the moment that’s been created with the most recent success the last few years really showed, I think, that there was an opportunity to maybe capture some positive things that have happened.”
Sumrall’s final season as an assistant coach coincided with the move to Yulman Stadium on campus and to the AAC in 2014. That marked a move out of the SuperDome, a cavernous dark hole for Tulane games that Sumrall likened to “playing in a cave.”
Since he has returned, Sumrall has seen the team being on campus and the success under Fritz energize Tulane football in New Orleans. He complimented Dannen’s decision to bring back the Angry Wave logo — fitting for a quirky city like New Orleans — and said the excitement felt today can be linked to the campus hosting football games.
“Ten years ago when I was here, I don’t think anybody here gave a damn. The city didn’t care,” he said. “There was no connection. Now you feel like a real connection. So that part’s really cool.”
Sumrall values that connection. He and his wife, Ginny, live nearby and take frequent walks on campus. She joins him when he traverses campus on Thursdays and checks in on the players classes, something Sumrall likes to do as a way to connect with the players. His presence there also stresses the academic component, which is critical at Tulane.
The roster that Sumrall as assembled is a modern mosaic of what roster building looks like, as he brought in 58 new players, including 53 transfers. He also has benefited from holdovers at quarterback and tailback who’ve both emerged as stars.
Tailback Makhi Hughes leads the AAC in rushing yards with 1,209. He averages 5.7 yards per carry and has scored 13 rushing touchdowns and two more receiving.
Quarterback Darian Mensah has thrown for 2,059 yards, 16 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has completed 65.6% of his passes and has emerged as one of the top quarterbacks in the Group of 5.
Mensah has led a balanced offense under veteran coordinator Joe Craddock that is No. 4 nationally in scoring with 41.0 points per game. Tulane is also Top 20 in scoring defense and total defense under coordinator Greg Gasparato.
Sumrall’s teams at Troy had a knack for winning close games, as Sumrall joked they went a “modest 12-2” his first year there. So far at Tulane, his team has lost only to then-No. 15 Oklahoma and then-No. 17 Kansas State, and it has handled the rest of the competition. In Tulane’s eight wins, it has won by an average of more than 30 points.
As Tulane enters the finishing kick, the program will face the same micro conundrum that it faces in the macro as a university in athletics — retaining talent and spending enough money in order to remain competitive. That includes coaches, staff and players, in an era where the financial separation is distinct compared to the power leagues.
While there’s limited movement expected in Power 4 coaching this year, Sumrall’s 31-6 career record will make him coveted this year and beyond. Mensah, who has three years of eligibility left, has authored the type of season that already has quarterback-needy schools putting together bids.
The success for Tulane is real, but so is the annual challenge to maintain it. With the ambition and momentum Tulane has gathered comes the challenge of keeping it going.
“As you look at the next several years, and the changing landscape of college athletics, people feel that there’s really a place for Tulane within the college football landscape and just overall being a stronger athletics brand,” Harris said. “And so to be in this position is incredibly exciting. It’s a big responsibility because you want to be a part of keeping the trajectory going up and keeping the excitement going and keeping the momentum going.”
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Ichiro wants to have drink with lone HOF holdout
Published
36 mins agoon
January 23, 2025By
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Associated Press
Jan 23, 2025, 05:51 PM ET
COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. — Ichiro Suzuki wants to raise a glass with the voter who chose not to check off his name on the Hall of Fame ballot.
“There’s one writer that I wasn’t able to get a vote from,” he said through an interpreter Thursday, two days after receiving 393 of 394 votes from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. “I would like to invite him over to my house, and we’ll have a drink together, and we’ll have a good chat.”
Suzuki had been to the Hall seven times before attending a news conference Thursday with fellow electees CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner. The trio will be inducted July 27 along with Dave Parker and Dick Allen, voted in last month by the classic era committee.
Suzuki struggled to process being the first player from Japan elected to the Hall.
“Maybe five, 10 years from now I could look back and maybe we’ll be able to say this is what it meant,” he said.
BBWAA secretary-treasurer Jack O’Connell recalled Suzuki was at the Hall in 2001 when he called to inform the Seattle star he had been voted American League Rookie of the Year. Suzuki received 27 of 28 first-place votes, all but one from an Ohio writer who selected Sabathia.
“He stole my Rookie of the Year,” Sabathia said playfully.
Sabathia remembered a game at Safeco Field on July 30, 2005. He had worked with Cleveland pitching coach Carl Willis in a bullpen session on a pitch he could throw to retire Suzuki, which turned out to be a slider.
“I get two strikes on Ichi and he hits it off the window,” Sabathia said of the 428-foot drive off the second-deck restaurant in right field, at the time the longest home run of Suzuki’s big league career. “Come back around his next at-bat, throw it to him again, first pitch he hits it out again.”
Suzuki’s second home run broke a sixth-inning tie in the Mariners’ 3-2 win.
As the trio discussed their favorite memorabilia, Suzuki mentioned a mock-up Hall of Fame plaque the Hall had created — not a design for the real one — that included his dog, Ikkyu.
“Our dog and then Bob Feller’s cat are the only animals to have the Hall of Fame plaque. That is something that I cherish,” Suzuki said, referring to a mock-up with the pitcher’s cat, Felix.
Sabathia helped the New York Yankees win the World Series in 2009 after agreeing to a $161 million, seven-year contract as a free agent. Sabathia started his big league career in Cleveland, finished the 2008 season in Milwaukee and was apprehensive about signing with the Yankees before he was persuaded by general manager Brian Cashman.
“Going into the offseason, I just heard all of the stuff that was going on, the turmoil in the Yankees clubhouse,” Sabathia said. “Pretty quick, like two or three days into spring training, me and Andy [Pettitte] are running in the outfield, I get a chance to meet [Derek] Jeter, we’re hanging out, and the pitching staff, we’re going to dinners, we’re going to basketball games together. So it didn’t take long at all before I felt like this was the right decision.”
Sabathia was on 342 ballots and Wagner on 325 (82.5%), which was 29 votes more than the 296 needed for the required 75%. While Suzuki and Sabathia were elected in their first ballot appearance, Wagner was voted in on his 10th and final try with the writers.
Even two days after learning of his election, Wagner had tears streaming down his cheeks when he thought back to the call. His face turned red.
“It’s humbling,” he said, his voice quavering before he paused. “I don’t know if it’s deserving, but to sit out 10 years and have your career scrutinized and stuff, it’s tough.”
Wagner, who is 5-foot-10, became the first left-hander elected to the Hall who was primarily a reliever. He thought of the words of 5-foot-11 right-hander Pedro Martínez, voted to Cooperstown in 2015.
“I hope kids around see that there is a chance that you can get here and it is possible, that size and where you’re from doesn’t matter,” Wagner said. “I think Pedro said it first, but if I can get here, anyone can get here.”
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Braves sign outfielder Profar to 3-year, $42M deal
Published
36 mins agoon
January 23, 2025By
adminOutfielder Jurickson Profar and the Atlanta Braves agreed on a three-year, $42 million contract Thursday, uniting the veteran coming off a career year with a team that has struggled in recent years to find a suitable left fielder.
Profar, 31, was a revelation for the San Diego Padres last year, hitting .280/.380/.459 with a career-high 24 home runs and 85 RBIs. Once the top prospect in all of baseball, Profar made his first All-Star team and won a Silver Slugger — all on a one-year, $1 million deal.
He cashed in with the Braves, who outbid a number of teams interested in Profar’s on-base skills as well as his energy that invigorated Padres supporters and infuriated rival fan bases.
Profar will join center fielder Michael Harris II and right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr., the former National League MVP coming off a torn left ACL just three years after tearing the ligament in his right knee. Without Acuña for most of last season, the Braves’ offense suffered a deep regression from 2023, when they set a single-season team record with a .501 slugging percentage.
The switch-hitting Profar can slot almost anywhere in the lineup, though he figures to begin the season toward the top as Acuña continues to rehab his knee. Beyond Harris and Acuña, Atlanta’s lineup includes All-Star third baseman Austin Riley, second baseman Ozzie Albies and first baseman Matt Olson. Profar will receive $12 million this year and $15 million in 2026 and 2027.
Atlanta is typically one of the most aggressive teams in baseball, striking early in free agency and with trades. After trading slugger Jorge Soler in late October, the Braves dabbled in minor league deals and watched as starter Max Fried went to the New York Yankees, starter Charlie Morton went to the Baltimore Orioles and reliever A.J. Minter went to the New York Mets.
Profar is Atlanta’s first real addition this winter after sneaking into the postseason at 89-73 and promptly getting swept by San Diego. He has spent all 11 years of his major league career in the West divisions, debuting at 19 with the Texas Rangers. Profar never fulfilled his potential there and went to Oakland in 2019 before settling with the Padres, where he became a full-time outfielder. Over 1,119 games in his career, Profar has hit .245/.331/.395 with 111 home runs and 444 RBIs in 4,291 plate appearances.
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Are the Dodgers ruining baseball? Inside the Roki Sasaki signing — and a spending spree that has rocked MLB
Published
56 mins agoon
January 23, 2025By
adminSIX YEARS AGO, when the world knew next to nothing of a gangly 17-year-old pitcher in Japan, a Los Angeles Dodgers evaluator sat in the stands at his high school games with a video camera to capture the splendor. Roki Sasaki’s fastball regularly reached 100 mph, his right arm a whirling force of nature. The Dodgers were smitten. Sasaki could eventually be the best pitcher in the world, team officials told one another. And when the time came for his inevitable move to Major League Baseball, they wanted to ensure he felt as strongly about them as they did him.
In the time since, the Dodgers have conquered baseball in nearly every fashion imaginable. Armed with immense wealth from their owners and buoyed by the largest local television contract in the game, the Dodgers have spared no expense in trying to win. Their major league payroll consistently ranks at the top of the game, yes, but other line items are best-in-class, too, from their technology infrastructure to their coaching staff’s compensation to the quality of the food they serve their minor league players.
When this winter arrived and Sasaki, now 23, declared his intentions to come to MLB, the Dodgers didn’t need a sales pitch because the allure for players is obvious: If you covet winning, come join a burgeoning dynasty. Since being sold to the Guggenheim Baseball Management group in 2012 following the disastrous ownership of Frank McCourt that led the team to file for bankruptcy, the Dodgers have remade themselves into conquerors: of the National League West (11 titles in 12 years), their October demons (two World Series championships in five years), and the Japanese baseball market (the signings of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto for more than $1 billion guaranteed).
Every front office pined for the latest Japanese ace this offseason. Eight teams were granted an audience with Sasaki. Three became finalists. The Dodgers were one. The San Diego Padres, Los Angeles’ chief rival in the NL West and another team whose early scouting of Sasaki won favor, were the second. The third came down to the Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees — four other teams whose years of work in Japan and history with Japanese players spoke to an understanding of Sasaki and his desires. The rapport built with Toronto’s international scouting apparatus won the Blue Jays the third finalist slot.
Toronto impressed Sasaki with its answer to a burning question: Why had his sizzling fastball lost velocity in 2024? The explanation from Frank Herrmann, a Blue Jays baseball operations staffer who had pitched in the big leagues and was Sasaki’s teammate with the Chiba Lotte Marines, and Sam Greene, the Blue Jays’ assistant pitching coach, blended a discussion of data, mechanics and feel that boosted their pursuit. Sasaki spent multiple days in Toronto, and as he departed, the Blue Jays were confident that whatever advantages the Dodgers might have, they were surmountable.
The visit to San Diego left the Padres similarly assured. Star third baseman Manny Machado held a gathering at his house, where a Japanese chef cooked familiar cuisine. Jackson Merrill, the Padres’ 21-year-old center fielder expected to blossom into a superstar in coming seasons, attended, as did Ethan Salas, the 18-year-old catcher seen as a linchpin in future seasons. And San Diego had an ace in the hole: Yu Darvish, the progenitor of modern Japanese pitching, whom Sasaki regards as a mentor with peerless knowledge.
The successful meetings put that much more pressure on the Dodgers, who hosted Sasaki Jan. 14 at minority owner Peter Guber’s Bel Air home and summoned an array of players, all locked up to long-term deals: superstars Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, catcher Will Smith, and super-utility man Tommy Edman. Ohtani, knowing Sasaki loves dogs, brought his Dutch kooikerhondje, Decoy, to the presentation.
With the international signing period opening Jan. 15 and the window for Sasaki to sign closing Jan. 23, the decision zone arrived and forced action. All three teams lined up trades to acquire more international bonus money to help their pursuit. San Diego was eliminated first. Toronto, attempting to demonstrate its willingness to go above and beyond for Sasaki, struck a deal with Cleveland to take on $11.75 million remaining on center fielder Myles Straw‘s contract along with an additional $2 million in international money even before Sasaki had made his decision.
Soon thereafter, he did — and it wasn’t the Blue Jays. What so many in baseball saw as a fait accompli — to the point MLB did a preemptive investigation into whether Sasaki had any sort of prearranged deal (and determined he didn’t) — played out. While some teams in meetings asked if Sasaki wanted to be Kevin Durant or Michael Jordan — to join a superteam or help build one — the allure of the Dodgers was impossible to ignore. All of their games are broadcast on national TV in Japan. The stores at Nippon Professional Baseball stadiums that include racks of Dodgers gear will now feature jerseys with his name on them. The Dodgers’ plan when they signed Ohtani — “One of our goals is for baseball fans in Japan to convert to Dodger Blue,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said — had borne fruit.
In executing that vision, the team has set off alarms inside the sport. The Dodgers’ signing of Sasaki for $6.5 million — a sum artificially deflated by MLB’s rules on international amateurs that offers Los Angeles hundreds of millions of dollars in surplus value — left front offices and fans alike gobsmacked. Watching the Dodgers pick off free agent after free agent with heavily deferred deals has built a wave of frustration. Seeing them land one of the most valuable contracts in the game — the sort typically reserved for the worst teams via the draft — reinforced something that has become increasingly clear.
The Dodgers are no longer just a team chasing championships. They are a stress test for the game itself.
THE ANGER — from disillusioned fans, from dispirited front offices, from owners made to look as if they don’t care — is very real. And it’s growing to the point that people at the highest levels of Major League Baseball acknowledge it concerns them. Most worrisome is the rhetoric that fans are done with the game. That what L.A. is doing is unfair. That the financial imbalance ruins the sport.
A villain around which people can rally is tolerable; an unbeatable monolith is not. An exemplar for how teams can operate is instructive; an extinguishing of hope is not. With every transaction pushing the Dodgers further from the former and more toward the latter, MLB faces growing cynicism that has reignited calls for a salary cap — and made collective bargaining discussions set to start a year from now, before the current basic agreement expires following the 2026 season, that much more fraught with peril.
Over the past 13 months, the Dodgers have morphed from a large-market, big-money jewel franchise that spent exceptional sums of money and didn’t have much to show for it into a referendum on the state of MLB in 2025. Because baseball is the last of the major North American professional sports leagues without a salary cap or floor, the difference between the Dodgers — who carry a payroll in the $375 million range — and the next-highest team, the Philadelphia Phillies, is nearly $70 million. That’s to say nothing of the gap between the Dodgers and the 30th-ranked Miami Marlins: around $300 million. The $120 million or so the Dodgers are in line to pay in luxury tax penalties on top of their payroll is more than the projected Opening Day payroll of 10 teams.
In the past 411 days, the Dodgers have:
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Signed Ohtani to a 10-year, $700 million contract, with $680 million deferred
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Traded for right-hander Tyler Glasnow and signed him to a five-year, $136.5 million contract extension
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Signed right-hander Yamamoto to a 12-year, $325 million contract
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Signed Smith to a 10-year, $140 million contract extension, with $50 million deferred
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Signed two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell to a five-year, $182 million contract, with $66 million deferred
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Signed Edman, acquired at the 2024 trade deadline, to a five-year, $74 million contract extension, with $25 million deferred
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Signed outfielder Michael Conforto to a one-year, $17 million contract
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Signed reliever Blake Treinen to a two-year, $22 million contract
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Signed outfielder Teoscar Hernández to a pair of deals totaling $89.5 million over four years, with $32 million deferred
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Signed Korean infielder Hyeseong Kim to a three-year, $12.5 million contract
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Signed Sasaki
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Signed closer Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72 million contract, with $21 million deferred
In total, they have guaranteed $1.778 billion — nearly half of it ($874 million) deferred. For a team that already had Betts and Freeman under contract — a team that over its six previous full seasons won at least 100 games five times — to turn over more than half its roster and add nearly a dozen impact players registered as baseball gluttony.
A day after Sasaki’s signing, Chicago Cubs owner Tom Ricketts told 670 AM in Chicago that “it’s really hard to compete” with the Dodgers. Ricketts bought the Cubs for $845 million in 2009. They are worth around $5 billion now, according to a person who values professional sports franchises. The Cubs, according to Forbes, have the third-highest revenue in MLB, behind the Yankees and Dodgers. They are the epitome of a big-market, high-earning franchise. Ricketts said the Cubs attempt to break even every year. Forbes estimates they have earned more than $585 million before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization over the past decade in addition to the more than $4 billion appreciation of the team.
At the time, the Cubs were attempting to sign Scott, among the most coveted relievers this winter. The next day, with a final offer of four years and $66 million — $6 million shy of where the Dodgers landed — they lost. The $18 million-a-year salary Scott received fell in line with those of other elite closers.
This is not a chicken-and-egg situation. Teams like the Cubs and Boston Red Sox — should-be powerhouses — earn reputations quickly among players by not spending. When franchises show they care about winning, players take note. The flocking of talented players to the Dodgers is not a function of a willingness to overpay. The vast majority of the long-term deals handed out by the Dodgers are market price or club-friendly. Betts’, Freeman’s, Smith’s. Ohtani’s deal — with $68 million of his annual $70 million salary deferred for a decade — was proposed by him to the Dodgers as well as to the other teams that pursued him: Toronto, San Francisco and the Los Angeles Angels.
While the Dodgers are among the rare teams that can carry three $300 million-plus deals (and four other nine-figure pacts on top of that) without bleeding money, they also thrive in the middle market. They took advantage of Ricketts’ unwillingness to push — he has limited the Cubs’ budget this winter, even after trading for Kyle Tucker — and won the bidding for Scott. Any team could have pursued Hernández, whose deal this winter was at market value. Every team passed on signing Snell to a long-term deal in the 2023-24 offseason. Edman was widely available at the trade deadline.
Every MLB club, even those with the lowest revenues, can compete for that sort of talent. So many operate with unbending devotion to their computer models, though, that the simple act of spending has become an even greater advantage for the Dodgers. With a history of teams on limited budgets annually performing among the best in the game, those franchises could fare even better stretching themselves financially and investing in winning, at the very least proportionally to those who devote a higher percentage of revenue to payroll. The Dodgers’ willingness to spend in grand sums and success with it should motivate other teams to keep up, not preclude them from doing so.
THREE DECADES AFTER the longest work stoppage in MLB history, the inequity baked into the game’s financial system remains. MLB’s pursuit of a salary cap in 1994 led to the cancellation of the World Series that year. The rekindling of a cap conversation has already begun — particularly by owners peeved by the Dodgers’ spending and the sheer size of Juan Soto‘s 15-year, $765 million, no-deferred-money deal with the New York Mets. Proposing a cap in next year’s CBA negotiations would be tantamount to a declaration of war by MLB — and already those owners are prepared for commissioner Rob Manfred to lock the players out Dec. 1, 2026.
It’s clear, by now, that the punitive elements the most recent collective bargaining agreement put in place — the luxury tax, the qualifying offer system, draft-pick punishment — are anti-spending measures that just don’t apply to some. The Mets have spent exceptional amounts of money and been OK. The Dodgers clearly see money as a competitive advantage they’re willing to flaunt. There is room to incentivize other teams to spend without having to institute a cap and a floor.
For now, though, this is the game. These are the rules. Players overwhelmingly supported the collective bargaining agreement that governs baseball. Owners voted unanimously in favor of it.
The Dodgers are the symptom, not the cause.
Players will point out that a cap is not a panacea. Without one, baseball has found parity on par with or better than capped leagues. In the past quarter-century, the team with the largest payroll in baseball has won the World Series just four times. Over the past 15 years, it’s just twice. No team has captured back-to-back championships since the Yankees won three straight 1998-2000. MLB’s postseason this year featured teams from Kansas City, Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland, Baltimore and San Diego. Perhaps most important: The randomness of baseball’s postseason typically serves as an equalizer, keeping even the most talented teams from their most dynastic aspirations.
As the Dodgers exceed the base luxury tax threshold of $241 million by more than 50%, it’s worth remembering that baseball has seen financial disparity like this before. There’s little solace to take in that this year, though, because the team the Dodgers have put together is genuinely great, extraordinarily deep, and prepared to weather injury, ineffectiveness and the other vagaries that would torpedo opponents’ seasons.
For all of the Dodgers’ advantages, it’s worth acknowledging the most overblown element of their approach. The deep misunderstanding of deferred money has painted it as a tool to avoid paying salaries for long periods of time and lessen a team’s luxury tax payroll. Neither of these is true.
Within two years of agreeing to a contract with deferred money, teams must place cash to cover future payments in an account and show statements annually to the league, according to the collective bargaining agreement. Deferrals are regarded by MLB the same way any business in any industry would: accounting for the time value of money. A dollar tomorrow is not worth as much as a dollar today. And a dollar 10 years down the road is worth much less than it is today. While Ohtani’s contract will ultimately pay him $70 million a year, its present-day worth is closer to the $46 million he counts against the luxury tax. This is not a loophole. It’s math. So is the fact that what they pay under luxury tax accounting — which uses the average annual value of a contract — exceeds the cash they’ll spend on payroll this year. The reality: They’re paying more in luxury tax this year.
An actual loophole does exist in the California tax system, incentivizing players who don’t live in the state to defer money and secure large signing bonuses, both of which allow them to skirt state taxes. This is nothing new for professional athletes across sports. Teams in Texas and Florida have been using a lack of state taxes to their advantage for decades. It’s not a particularly significant advantage — except for Ohtani, who California lawmakers said could avoid around $90 million in state taxes as they pursue legislation to fix the law.
What’s undeniable — and undeniably frustrating to fans and owners alike — is that despite the inflated dollar figure, Ohtani’s contract is the team-friendliest free agent deal in baseball history. Between his production and the revenue he helps the Dodgers generate, he is worth well over $100 million annually, not $46 million. And once the Dodgers were able to secure his services for the next decade, the franchise could still turn around and spend more than a billion dollars however it saw fit, perfectly content to pay the luxury tax.
Under McCourt’s ownership, the Dodgers were directionless underachievers. They became a fury-inducing juggernaut when they sought to maximize themselves, and that is the ultimate endgame of the stress test: Have they mastered this system to the point that it must be overhauled?
As the 2025 season unfolds and attempts to answer that question, they will wear the boos and the chirping and all of the nastiness in opposing ballparks. But this is not their fight. It is the commissioner’s and the owners’ and the union’s. Those stakeholders need to find an answer that isn’t just kicking the can down the road for five years but actually, actively changing baseball’s economic structure so players continue to make what they’re worth and fans see a tolerably fair system.
The greatest drug of sports fandom is belief, and right now, belief in baseball is waning. October has always been the great equalizer, a time when hot teams regularly beat more talented teams. If that happens to the Dodgers in 2025, the schadenfreude will be strong enough to part the Red Sea. Should the Dodgers become repeat champions, though, the chorus will grow louder and the distrust deeper. The stress test has arrived, and for all of the game’s resiliency, baseball’s future depends on its ability to navigate a situation of its own making.
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