Joe Biden’s belated decision to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied, long-range missiles inside Russia will be cheered by Kyiv and will almost certainly prompt the UK to follow suit.
But the stunning shift in US policy – just weeks before Donald Trump takes over as US president – will also trigger fury and fresh threats from Moscow at a time of increasing uncertainty about the future course of its war.
President Vladimir Putin has warned the West they would be playing with fire if they allowed Ukrainian forces to launch Western-supplied cruise and ballistic missiles at Russia, saying it could even trigger a global conflict.
British and US officials, though, have repeatedly advised their respective capitals not to be intimidated by Moscow’s sabre rattling.
Yet there has been hesitancy, particularly in Washington, over the unleashing of US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) ballistic missiles beyond the borders of Ukraine.
However, it seems that a move by North Korea to send thousands of its troops to fight with Russia has changed US calculations.
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The New York Times, which was among the US media organisations to break news of the Biden administration’s decision on long-range missiles, reported that the first time the American weapons will be used inside Russia will likely be against Russian and North Korean troops battling a Ukrainian incursion in the Russian region of Kursk.
While a significant step up in support for Ukraine, the ability to use American long-range missiles inside Russia is not a war-winning development.
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But it does expand Kyiv’s capacity to hit important military targets deliberately positioned by Russian commanders far back from the frontline. This includes stockpiles of missiles, drones and other ammunition used to strike Ukraine.
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Biden lifts ban on Russia strikes
Just as important as the military impact, though, is the political signal that the US decision sends to the Kremlin about Washington’s willingness to defy Russian warnings about dire consequences should Mr Biden dare to grant Ukraine the permission it’s so long been seeking.
The dramatic move by the United States comes after months of lobbying by Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
A key thing to watch now will be how Mr Putin reacts the first time an American missile kills Russian soldiers on Russian soil.
Moscow does not want a direct war with the United States and NATO – nuclear-armed forces with far greater combined firepower – but the Kremlin could well ramp up an already heightened campaign of sabotage and other forms of hybrid warfare across Europe.
Another important reaction to track will be how Mr Trump responds to Mr Biden’s move and whether he continues to allow Ukraine this permission once he takes over as the US commander-in-chief.
The president-elect has vowed to end Russia’s war in Ukraine quickly but he has not said how. Yet he has voiced fierce opposition to the continued gifting of vast quantities of American weapons to the Ukrainian military.
Iran claims it has carried out a “mighty and successful response” to “America’s aggression” after launching missile attacks on a US military base in Qatar and Iraq.
Iran’s response this evening is the latest escalation in tensions in the volatile region.
Qatar has said there were no casualties at the al Udeid base following the strikes and that its “air defences thwarted the attack and successfully intercepted the Iranian missiles”.
People in Qatar’s capital, Doha, had stopped and gazed up at the sky as missiles flew and interceptors fired.
Iran had announced on state television that it had attacked American forces stationed at the al Udeid airbase.
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A caption on screen called it “a mighty and successful response” to “America’s aggression” as martial music played.
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Iran releases video after attack on US base
Initial reports claimed Iran had also targeted a base housing US troops in western Iraq, but a US military official later told Reuters news agency the attack in Qatar was the only one detected.
A US government official said the White House and US defence department was “closely monitoring” the potential threats to its base.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump was in the Situation Room in the White House with his team following the Iranian strikes.
Image: Traces are seen in the sky over Qatar after Iran’s armed forces targeted the al Udeid base. Pic: Reuters
He later said in a post on Truth Social that the missiles were a “very weak response”, which the US “expected” and “very effectively countered”.
He added: “Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their ‘system,’ and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE.
“I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured.
“Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a post on X: “We have not violated anyone’s rights, nor will we ever accept anyone violating ours, and we will not surrender to anyone’s violation; this is the logic of the Iranian nation.”
The attacks came shortly after Qatar closed its airspace as a precaution amid threats from Iran.
Just before the explosions, Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on the social platform X: “We neither initiated the war nor seeking it. But we will not leave invasion to the great Iran without answer.”
Kuwait and Bahrain briefly shut their airspaces after the attack, news agencies in each country reported.
Iraq also shut its airspace, while Oman Air suspended some flights in the region.
The Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways said it is rerouting several flights today and tomorrow due to restrictions in parts of the Middle East.
Three of Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities – Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan – were targeted in US airstrikes on 22 June.
The prime target of the attacks was Iran’s most advanced facility at Fordow, suspected of being used to enrich uranium close to what’s needed for a nuclear bomb.
Satellite images from the aftermath of the US strikes suggest at least six bombs were dropped there.
Image: Satellite imagery of Fordow after the US bombing. Pic: Maxar Technologies
The secure nuclear facility, home to Iran’s main enrichment site, is buried deep under a mountain.
So exactly how much damage was done is unknown, perhaps even to Iran, which appears to have evacuated the site. The specific location of the strikes and the bombs used gives us an indication.
America used the 30,000-lb Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, or a GBU-57 – commonly known as a “bunker buster”.
The bunker buster is the only missile that had a chance of destroying the Fordow facility, and American planes were needed for them to be used.
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Blueprints from Iran’s Nuclear Archive, which date from before 2004 and were seized by Israeli spies in 2018, suggest the bombs targeted the tunnels under the Fordow site.
Image: Blueprints of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant suggest tunnels run through the mountain. Pic: Google Earth
The access tunnels overground lead to a 250 metre long hall which is thought to contain the uranium enrichment centrifuges, and well as the location of what is thought to be ventilation shafts.
Iran is thought to have likely moved any enriched uranium from the facility before the strikes occurred. But if the ventilation shafts were hit, that would allow the bombs to penetrate as far as possible and hit the centrifuge hall itself.
Iran’s major nuclear facilities seriously damaged, if not completely destroyed
The loss of industrial-scale centrifuge “cascades” used to enrich uranium will certainly derail any imminent deadlines in weaponisation the Islamic Republic may have set itself – more on that below.
But it has already amassed a sizeable stockpile of highly enriched uranium and may even have already enriched some of it to the 90% or so needed to make fissile material necessary for a bomb.
And despite strikes on industrial scale facilities that have taken decades to generate that stockpile, the material itself weighs less than half a tonne.
Moving it, splitting it up, concealing it, is not beyond the wit of a nation that expected these assaults may be coming.
Iran’s nuclear programme is also more than its large-scale facilities. Iran has been developing nuclear expertise and industrial processes for decades. It would take more than a concerted bombing campaign to wipe that out.
The final steps to “weaponise” highly enriched uranium are technically challenging, but Iran was known to be working on them more than 20 years ago.
Iran also does not require industrial-scale facilities like those needed to enrich uranium, meaning they could be more easily concealed in a network of smaller, discrete lab-sized buildings.
But what’s far from clear is whether Iran had actually taken steps towards weaponisation in recent years.
Recent US intelligence assessments indicated that it hadn’t. Iran’s leaders knew that very significant moves towards making a bomb would be seen as a major escalation by its neighbours and the international community.
For a long time, a key deterrent to Iran developing a nuclear weapon has been an internal political one.
It’s possible of course that position may have been shifting and these latest strikes were designed to disarm a rapidly weaponising Iran.
But it’s also possible the attacks on its nuclear programme may be forcing a previously tentative government to push harder towards making a nuclear bomb.
Fordow is only one of three nuclear facilities targeted in America’s strike, however, and one of seven that have been targeted since the conflict began.
Natanz’s uranium enrichment facility, about 140 km south of Fordow, had been subject to multiple Israeli strikes before America’s advance.
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Israeli raids targeted surface buildings, including stores of enriched uranium. However, post-strike radiation monitoring suggested there was little, if any, nuclear material there.
At the weekend, Americans dropped bunker-buster bombs there too, targeting thousands of enrichment centrifuges operating in bunkers below.
Image: Destruction at the Natanz Enrichment Complex from satellite imagery. Pic: Maxar Technologies
Then there is the Isfahan complex. Again, Israeli missiles destroyed a number of buildings there last week. And at the weekend, US cruise missiles targeted others, including the uranium conversion plant.
At the weekend, Americans also dropped bunker-buster bombs there, targeting thousands of enrichment centrifuges operating in bunkers below.
Image: Satellite imagery shows the impact on the Isfahan Nuclear Complex. facility. Pic: Maxar Technologies
Speaking from the White House after the attacks, Donald Trump said facilities had been “completely and totally obliterated”. But experts suggest it could take more to destroy it entirely.
“This is a very well-developed, long-standing programme with a lot of latent expertise in the country,” said Darya Dolzikova, a proliferation and nuclear security expert at RUSI, a UK defence and security thinktank
“I don’t think we’re talking about a full elimination at this point, certainly not by military means.”
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Nearly 200 firefighters are battling a major wildfire on the Greek island of Chios.
The fire started on Sunday in three separate locations near the main town, which is also called Chios. The flames were fanned by strong winds and turned into one large blaze.
Local media footage and photos showed firefighters battling towering flames burning through woodland and farmland as night fell. Power cuts have also been reported.
Greek authorities sent fresh evacuation notifications for two areas near Chios town on Monday morning.
Image: People watch a wildfire approaching. Pic: Politischios.gr /AP
Push alerts have been sent to mobile phones in the area urging people to evacuate a total of 16 villages, settlements and neighbourhoods on the outskirts of the town.
“The situation remains critical as firefighting forces are still dealing with many active fronts, several of which being near hamlets,” a Greek government spokesman said.
The fire department said 190 firefighters were trying to control the fire on Monday, with strong winds hampering their efforts.
Image: Pic: Politischios/AP
Some 35 vehicles, five helicopters and two water-dropping planes were also involved in the effort.
A specialist fire department arson investigation team has been sent to the eastern Aegean island to look into the causes.