The Earth’s freshwater reserves experienced a sudden decline starting in May 2014 and have remained persistently low, according to findings by an international team of scientists utilising NASA-German satellites. Observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission revealed a significant reduction in freshwater stored on land, including lakes, rivers, and underground aquifers. The study, published in Surveys in Geophysics, suggests this shift may indicate a transition to drier conditions across the continents.

Freshwater Reduction Quantified

Between 2015 and 2023, terrestrial freshwater levels were found to be 290 cubic miles below the average recorded from 2002 to 2014, according to Matthew Rodell, a hydrologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. This equates to over twice the volume of Lake Erie. Contributing factors include droughts and increased reliance on groundwater for agriculture and urban needs, which depletes reserves faster than they can be replenished. A 2024 United Nations report on water stress highlighted the societal risks of diminished water supplies, including famine, poverty, and reliance on unsafe water sources.

Impact of Global Warming on Water Cycles

Research indicates that rising global temperatures may be exacerbating freshwater loss. Michael Bosilovich, a meteorologist at NASA Goddard, explained that warming intensifies evaporation and increases the atmosphere’s capacity to retain moisture, leading to extreme rainfall events. While total annual precipitation remains steady, prolonged dry spells between these events reduce soil absorption, worsening drought conditions.

Persistent Trends Raise Concerns

Satellite data showed that global freshwater did not recover after a significant El Niño event between 2014 and 2016, which had caused shifts in atmospheric patterns and widespread droughts. Rodell noted that 13 of the 30 most severe droughts since 2002 occurred after 2015. Although the link to climate change is not definitive, the concurrent timing with record-high global temperatures has raised concerns about the future stability of freshwater resources.

Hydrologist Susanna Werth from Virginia Tech, unaffiliated with the study, emphasised the challenges in predicting long-term outcomes due to uncertainties in climate models. However, the current trends are being closely monitored for further implications.