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The Bank of England governor has said industry lobby group the British Retail Consortium (BRC) was right to warn of job losses as a result of the budget.

There is a “risk” of unemployment rising due to increases in employers’ national insurance contributions and minimum wage rises announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves last month, Andrew Bailey told MPs on the Treasury Committee.

Money blog: Inflation announcement will be bad news

In a letter to Ms Reeves, the BRC warned of items becoming more expensive and job cuts stemming from the price pressures placed on firms by the new policies.

But firms will rebuild their profit margins, according to Mr Bailey.

He said: “Probably initially there will be more pressure on firms’ margins because it takes them longer to adjust and then they’ll probably rebuild those more profit margins, that is over time”.

Having previously said the budget could cause inflation to rise, Mr Bailey on Tuesday said price increases could slow or reverse thanks to the budget policies.

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Fewer jobs would reduce competition among employers for workers, something which could bring down wages.

Wage rises have been one of the factors identified by Mr Bailey as behind high inflation since the COVID pandemic.

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BoE: Inflation expected to rise

How much will borrowing costs fall by?

A member of the Bank’s interest rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, Professor Alan Taylor, told the MPs he expects interest rates to fall to 3.75% over the next year – down from the current 4.75%.

Interest rates could be lowered more quickly, he added, if inflation, wage growth and economic expansion are less than anticipated and unemployment ticks higher.

Why are mortgage rates going up?

When asked why typical fixed-rate mortgages have been going up in recent weeks, Mr Bailey said it was because of US political uncertainty before the election as well as the UK budget.

He pointed out that since the first interest rate cut in four years, announced in August, mortgage rates in the market have been lower.

Brexit and its hardline supporters

Echoing comments he made about Brexit and the need for increased cooperation with the European Union, Mr Bailey also levelled criticism at hardline Brexiteers.

“We should be in active dialogue with the EU,” he told MPs.

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The reason there have been outcomes “better than we feared they would be in 2016-17” for the financial services sector is because of open dialogue with EU colleagues, Mr Bailey said.

“I find it hard to understand people who seem to say that we should implement Brexit in the most hostile fashion possible.”

He added: “I take no position on Brexit. I never have. I’ve always said it’s my job to get on and do it and I’ll do it in the best way possible and I think talking, having a relationship with the European Union is the better way to do it.”

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Inside the town where 6 out of 7 children grow up in poverty – and live in fear of homelessness

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Inside the town where 6 out of 7 children grow up in poverty - and live in fear of homelessness

The cobbled streets of Newport in Middlesbrough survive from the Victorian era.

The staggering levels of child poverty here also feel like they belong in a different time.

Six out of every seven children in Newport are classified as living in poverty.

Six out of every seven children in Newport are classified as living in poverty
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Six out of every seven children in Newport are classified as living in poverty

The measure is defined by the Child Poverty Action Group as a household with an income less than 60% of the national average.

More than half of children across the whole of the constituency of Middlesbrough and Thornaby East are growing up in poverty.

As a long-awaited new strategy on child poverty is expected from the government, much of the focus on tackling the problem has been placed on lifting the two-child cap on benefits for families.

Researchers say there is direct link between areas with the highest rates of child poverty and those with the highest proportion of children affected by that two-child cap.

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The two-child benefit cap means Gemma Grafton and Lee Stevenson receive no additional universal credit for three-month-old Ivie
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The two-child benefit cap means Gemma Grafton and Lee Stevenson receive no additional universal credit for three-month-old Ivie

Mother-of-three Gemma Grafton said: “Maybe if families do have more than two children, give them that little bit of extra help because it would make a difference.”

Three months ago, she and partner Lee welcomed baby Ivie into the world. With two daughters already, the cap means they receive no additional universal credit.

“You don’t seem to have enough money some months to cover the basics,” said Lee.

“Having to tell the kids to take it easy, that’s not nice, when they’re just wanting to help themselves to get what they want and we’ve got to say ‘Try and calm down on what you’re eating’ because we haven’t got the money to go and get shopping in,” added Gemma.

Katrina Morley, of Dormanstown Primary Academy, says lack of sleep affects concentration
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Katrina Morley, of Dormanstown Primary Academy, says lack of sleep affects concentration

Tracey Godfrey-Harrison says parents 'are crying that they're failing'
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Tracey Godfrey-Harrison says parents ‘are crying that they’re failing’

The couple had to resort to paying half of the rent one month, something they say is stressful and puts their home at risk.

Those who work in the area of child poverty say they are engaged in a battle with child exploitation gangs who will happily step in and offer children a lucrative life of crime.

“Parents are crying that they’re failing because they can’t provide for their children,” said Tracey Godfrey-Harrison, project manager at the Middlesbrough Food Bank.

“In today’s society, it’s disgraceful that anyone should have to cry because they don’t have enough.”

In the shadow of a former steelworks, Dormanstown Primary Academy serves pupils in a community hit hard by the economic collapse that followed.

The school works with charities and businesses to increase opportunities for pupils now and in the future.

Katrina Morley, the academy’s chief executive, said: “A child who hasn’t been able to sleep properly can’t concentrate. They’re tired. We know that the brain doesn’t work in the same way. A child who is hungry can’t access the whole of life.

“When you face hardship, it affects not just your physiology but your emotional sense, your brain development, your sense of worth. They don’t get today back and their tomorrow is our tomorrow.”

Dormanstown Primary Academy serves pupils in a community hit hard by the closure of a steel plant
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Dormanstown Primary Academy serves pupils in a community hit hard by the closure of a steel plant

Barney's Baby Bank founder Debbie Smith says local people 'are struggling with food'
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Barney’s Baby Bank founder Debbie Smith says local people ‘are struggling with food’


The school’s year six pupils see the value of things like the on-site farm shop for families in need.

They are open about their own worries, too.

Bonnie, 10, said: “I think that’s very important because it ensures all the people in our community have options if they’re struggling.

“It can be life-changing for families in poverty or who have a disadvantage in life because they don’t have enough money and they’re really struggling to get their necessities.”

Mark, also 10, said: “I worry about if we have nowhere to live and if we haven’t got enough money to pay for our home. But at least we have our family.”

They also see the homelessness in the area as the impact of poverty. “I think it actually happens more often than most people think,” said Leo, “because near the town, there’s people on the streets and they have nowhere to go.”

The school is one of many calling for the lifting of the two-child cap.

The need for life’s essentials has prompted more than 50 families to register for help at Barney’s Baby Bank in the last 11 months. Nappies, wipes, clothing, shoes, toys, are a lifeline for those who call in.

Founder Debbie Smith said local people “are struggling with food. They’re obviously struggling to clothe their babies as well. It’s low wages, high unemployment, job insecurity and that two-child benefit cap”.

“Middlesbrough does feel ignored,” she added.

A government spokesperson said: “Every child, no matter their background, deserves the best start in life. That’s why our Child Poverty Taskforce will publish an ambitious strategy to tackle the structural and root causes of child poverty.

“We are investing £500m in children’s development through the rollout of Best Start Family Hubs, extending free school meals and ensuring the poorest don’t go hungry in the holidays through a new £1bn crisis support package.”

Read more on Sky News:
Progress ‘being made’ on poverty
Warning over ‘great poverty distraction’

But what is the message to those making the decisions from the North East?

“Come and do my job for a week and see the need and the desperation the people are in,” said Ms Godfrey-Harrison. “There needs to be more done for people in Middlesbrough.”

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Interpath-owner to kick off £900m sale of Claire’s administrator

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Interpath-owner to kick off £900m sale of Claire's administrator

The restructuring firm drafted in to advise Sir Jim Ratcliffe on a radical cost-cutting programme at Manchester United Football Club will this week be put up for sale with a £900m price tag.

Sky News has learnt that advisers to HIG Europe, the majority shareholder in Interpath Advisory, will on Monday begin circulating information about the business to potential buyers.

City insiders said on Sunday that HIG had received a large volume of inbound enquiries from prospective suitors since it emerged that it was in the process of appointing bankers at Moelis to handle an auction.

Blackstone, Bridgepoint, Onex, PAI Partners and Permira are among the buyout firms expected to show an interest in buying Interpath, according to banking sources.

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Interpath was spun out of KPMG UK in 2021 in a deal triggered by the changing regulatory climate in the audit profession.

Growing concerns over conflicts of interest between accountancy giants’ audit and consulting arms had been exacerbated by the collapse of companies such as BHS and Carillion, prompting a number of disposals by ‘big four’ firms.

Interpath has advised on a string of prominent restructuring and cost-saving mandates for clients, including acting as administrator to the UK and Ireland subsidiaries of Claire’s, the accessories retailer which collapsed during the summer.

Sources said that Interpath had doubled its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation since HIG Europe acquired the business four-and-a-half years ago.

It is also said to be on track to record a 20% increase in annual revenues in the current financial year.

A sale of Interpath is expected to be agreed during the first quarter of 2026.

HIG declined to comment.

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Former chancellor Osborne is shock contender to head HSBC

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Former chancellor Osborne is shock contender to head HSBC

George Osborne, the former chancellor, has emerged as a shock contender to become the next chairman of HSBC Holdings, one of the world’s top banking jobs.

Sky News can exclusively reveal that Mr Osborne, who was chancellor from 2010 until 2016, was approached during the summer about becoming the successor to Sir Mark Tucker.

This weekend, City sources said that Mr Osborne was one of three remaining candidates in the frame to take on the chairmanship of the London-headquartered lender.

Naguib Kheraj, the City veteran who was previously finance director of Barclays and deputy chairman of Standard Chartered, is also in contention.

The other candidate is said to be Kevin Sneader, the former McKinsey boss who now works for Goldman Sachs in Asia.

It was unclear this weekend whether other names remained in contention for the job, or whether the board regarded any as the frontrunner at this stage.

Mr Osborne’s inclusion on the shortlist is a major surprise, given his lack of public company chairmanship experience.

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With a market capitalisation of almost £190bn, HSBC is the second-largest FTSE-100 company, after drugs giant AstraZeneca.

The bank has been looking for a replacement for Sir Mark for nearly a year, but has run what external critics have labelled a chaotic succession process.

Sir Mark, who has returned to the helm of insurer AIA as its non-executive chairman, stepped down at the end of September, but remains an adviser to the board.

Brendan Nelson, the former KPMG vice-chairman, became interim chair of HSBC last month and will remain in place until a permanent successor is found.

If he got the job, Mr Osborne would be a radical choice for one of Britain’s biggest corporate jobs.

Since stepping down as an MP, he has assumed a varied professional life, becoming editor of the London Evening Standard for three years, a post he left in 2020.

Since then, he has become a partner at Robey Warshaw, the merger advisory firm recently acquired by Evercore, where he remains in place.

If he were to become HSBC chairman, he would be obliged to give up that role.

Mr Osborne also chairs the British Museum, is an adviser to the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase and is chairman of Lingotto Investment Management, which is controlled by Italy’s billionaire Agnelli business dynasty.

During his chancellorship, Mr Osborne and then prime minister David Cameron fostered closer links with Beijing in a bid to boost trade ties between the two countries.

“Of course, there will be ups and downs in the road ahead, but by sticking together we can make this a golden era for the UK-China relationship for many years to come,” he said in a speech in Shanghai in 2015.

Mr Osborne was also reported to have intervened on HSBC’s behalf as it sought to avoid prosecution in the US in 2012 on money laundering charges.

The much cooler current relationship between the UK – and many of its allies – and China will be the most significant geopolitical context faced by Sir Mark’s successor as HSBC chairman.

While there is little doubt about his intellectual bandwidth for the role, it would be rare for such a plum corporate job to go to someone with such a spartan public company boardroom pedigree.

His lack of direct banking experience would also be expected to come under close scrutiny from regulators.

HSBC’s shares have soared over the last year, rising by more than 50%, despite the headwinds posed by President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs regime.

When he was appointed, Mr Tucker became the first outsider to take the post in the bank’s 152-year history – and which has a big presence on the high street thanks to its acquisition of the Midland Bank in 1992.

He oversaw a rapid change of leadership, appointing bank veteran John Flint to replace Stuart Gulliver as chief executive.

The transition did not work out, however, with Mr Tucker deciding to sack Mr Flint after just 18 months.

He was replaced on an interim basis by Noel Quinn in the summer of 2018, with that change becoming permanent in April 2020.

Mr Quinn spent a further four years in the post before deciding to step down, and in July 2024 he was succeeded by Georges Elhedery, a long-serving executive in HSBC’s markets unit and more recently the bank’s chief financial officer.

The new chief’s first big move in the top job was to unveil a sweeping reorganisation of HSBC that sees it reshaped into eastern markets and western markets businesses.

He also decided to merge its commercial and investment banking operations into a single division.

The restructuring, which Mr Elhedery said would “result in a simpler, more dynamic, and agile organisation” has drawn a mixed reaction from analysts, although it has not interrupted a strong run for the stock.

During Sir Mark’s tenure, HSBC continued to exit non-core markets, selling operations in countries such as Canada and France as it sharpened its focus on its Asian operations.

HSBC has been contacted for comment, while Mr Osborne could not be reached for comment.

In late September, HSBC said in a statement: “The process to select the permanent HSBC Group Chair, led by Ann Godbehere, Senior Independent Director, is ongoing.

“The company will provide further updates on this succession process in due course.”

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